363 réponses à ce sujet

[acturater]

 I thought I would start a poll on everyone's black-card N7 ultra-rare weapon drop rate. It will help to collect as much data from everyone to take advantage of the law of large numbers. The larger our sample, the closer we will get to the 'true' drop rate programmed by Bioware.

Here is the info I will need, regardless of whether you received an N7 weapon in your spectre pack or not. If you did not receive any N7 weapons, please leave it as 0. It's actually very important that you submit your 'blank' spectre pack purchases as well. I will start with my most recent purchase.

[Results as of Checkpoint 7 (May 1, 2012)]

# of Spectre Packs purchased: 1402
# of N7 weapon cards received: 70
Current Rate: 5%

# of Premium Spectre Packs purchased: 1320
# of N7 weapon cards received: 123
Current Rate: 9%

# of Resurgence Packs purchased: 36
# of N7 weapon cards received: 2
Current Rate: 6%

I will continue to aggregate everyone's numbers on this post. Thanks in advance for your participation.

--------------------------------------------------------------
* Aggregated data from the thread: "56 premium spectre packs, 4 n7 weapons" as of Checkpoint #2.
http://social.biowar...ndex/11420983/1
** Aggregated data from the thread: "Theory:Ultra-rare drop rates being manipulated." as of Checkpoint #2.
http://social.biowar.../index/11668505

Modifié par acturater, 01 mai 2012 - 07:32 .

[tzabaothg]

Bioware already stated that they would not give a % rate for ultra rares, but perhaps they would give the total number of ultras and the total number of rare packs purchased?

Could slap it on one of their silly stat posters =P

[thegamefreek78648]

Yeah.... everyone's going to remember how many specter packs, premium specter packs and resurgence packs they have purchased.....

[acturater]

thegamefreek78648 wrote...

Yeah.... everyone's going to remember how many specter packs, premium specter packs and resurgence packs they have purchased.....

I'm not asking for you to remember all your past purchases. However, if you decide to purchase some spectre packs in the future, I would greatly appreciate if you could post your results here afterwards.

[aletto]

This is interesting... I'll make notes

[DoctorEss]

# of Spectre Packs purchased: 35 (ROUGH estimate. +/- 5)
# of N7 weapon cards received: 0
Current Rate: 0%

# of Premium Specter Packs purchased: 10-12
# of N7 weapon cards received: 0
Current Rate: 0%

# of Resurgence Packs purchased: 4
# of N7 weapon cards received: 0
Current Rate: 0%

Packs/cards so useless and random all my guns are under level 3.  Barely allowed outside Bronze because of it.

Modifié par DoctorEss, 27 avril 2012 - 09:00 .

[MysticH]

I bought 3 last night and got 0 upgrades to my N7 weapons... I'll try to keep track of how many I buy this weekend

[Masika]

114 purchased

3 N7

(Talon II & Scorpion I : lucky me)

And still no Widow.
But Arc Pistol X !

[grayfoxwins]

I think this is a good idea. I'll keep track in the future.

[XxIveGotKrabsxX]

Dont know how many packs ive bought but my Ulta-Rares are as follows

Wraith lvl 1
Javelin lvl 2
Paladin lvl 1
Scorpion lvl 4 - my favorite gun, massive explosions of death everywhere, plus i lol when people go WTF why is my screen so shaky.

[acturater]

tzabaothg wrote...

Bioware already stated that they would not give a % rate for ultra rares, but perhaps they would give the total number of ultras and the total number of rare packs purchased?

Could slap it on one of their silly stat posters =P

You are absolutely right, BW will not give the % drop rate, so I am hoping to be able to get to that number through some collaboration. If you have any purchases in the future, I would greatly appreciate input!

[Gumbeaux Jr]

Bought roughly 20 spectre packs and 4 premium spectre packs

N7 : 1 (Wraith)

[tzabaothg]

acturater wrote...

tzabaothg wrote...

Bioware already stated that they would not give a % rate for ultra rares, but perhaps they would give the total number of ultras and the total number of rare packs purchased?

Could slap it on one of their silly stat posters =P

You are absolutely right, BW will not give the % drop rate, so I am hoping to be able to get to that number through some collaboration. If you have any purchases in the future, I would greatly appreciate input!

I will keep track in the future, but my point was that it may be worth trying to swindle them into throwing some raw numbers at us.

I wholly support this idea, but I also endorse working smarter rather than harder~

[XxIveGotKrabsxX]

I can say this though, With the exception of my Scorpion, all my Ultra Rares came from the Premium Spectre Pack

[acturater]

XxIveGotKrabsxX wrote...

I can say this though, With the exception of my Scorpion, all my Ultra Rares came from the Premium Spectre Pack

Do you have an idea of how many games you played to collect the credits, or the amount of credits you spent? 

Edit: Checkpoint 1 for accounting purposes.

Modifié par acturater, 27 avril 2012 - 09:36 .

[ittarter]

34 spectre
15 premium spectre
0 resurgence

4 ultra-rare N7 (I think all four came from spectre packs but maybe 1 from premium packs)

[Calibrations Expert]

0 spectre packs, 1 premium spectre pack, 1 N7 weapon

Modifié par Calibrations Expert, 27 avril 2012 - 09:37 .

[XxIveGotKrabsxX]

acturater wrote...

XxIveGotKrabsxX wrote...

I can say this though, With the exception of my Scorpion, all my Ultra Rares came from the Premium Spectre Pack

Do you have an idea of how many games you played to collect the credits, or the amount of credits you spent? 

Edit: Checkpoint 1 for accounting purposes.

Premium Spectre Packs i bought 3 a day the first week they were out except 1 day (had jury duty) so about 18 Premium Spectre packs, also my Javelin II upgrade and the Wraith came in the same pack. 

The second week the Pack was out i only bought 3 and no N7 rare weapons

Modifié par XxIveGotKrabsxX, 27 avril 2012 - 09:44 .

[Brettic]

You would never be able to get a large enough sample size to figure it out.

It's best to just leave it as a guesstimate at about 1% maybe lower.

That's typical for game's that use a lottery system with a large number of players to keep the amount of them in the population fairly low.

[jonal11]

It seems to be around 5%

EDIT: You are not that first to try this, I suggest you search for the other threads with already high data sets.

EDIT 2: There was some good data at the time around resurgence, people saved up million of credits, then not understanding the resurgence pack was delayed, blew all that money on Spectre packs. Lot of them posted how many packs bought and how many ultra rares they got.

Modifié par jonal11, 27 avril 2012 - 09:49 .

[Praest]

I actually started writing down what I got from spectre packs recently. So I'll start with this:
# of packs: 17
# of n7 weapons: 1

I actually got skewed because I had bought 16 with just char cards and then got the sabre in the last I opened. Too bad I don't like it

[BoomDynamite]

I'm sorry, but instead of N7 out of packs, it would be N7 out of non-consumables. You can get 1+.

[acturater]

Checkpoint #2 for accounting purposes. Results have been updated in the original post. I will scour the boards for more data and report.

Aggregated data from the thread: "56 premium spectre packs, 4 n7 weapons"
http://social.biowar.../index/11420983
Aggregated data from the thread: "Theory:Ultra-rare drop rates being manipulated."
http://social.biowar...ndex/11668505/1

Modifié par acturater, 27 avril 2012 - 10:30 .

[acturater]

Brettic wrote...

You would never be able to get a large enough sample size to figure it out.

It's best to just leave it as a guesstimate at about 1% maybe lower.

That's typical for game's that use a lottery system with a large number of players to keep the amount of them in the population fairly low.

This is not true, just ask AC Nielsen. If you are interested further in this topic I would recommend Googling 'Central Limit Theorem' and 'Law of Large Numbers.' The number of samples needed is surprisingly low compared to the population size before you start to quickly converge on the population mean with decreasing standard deviation.

[Tamlin2003]

30 Specter packs - 2 Ultra Rares

93 Premium Specters - 1 Ultra Rare

Yeah my luck sucks, but I have lots of characters with pretty pink lights!