363 réponses à ce sujet

[CHAw]

Here's another summary* of results in recognition of the release of Earth. This tally includes all of the data that acturater has up in the original post. It also includes the following data, the former of which came from somebody I know prior to the release of Earth, and the latter of which is my personal data from after the release of Earth:

8 Ultra-Rares in 40 Premium Spectre Packs
5 Ultra-Rares in 20 Premium Spectre Packs


Per Orca_'s suggestion, I've included statistics dividing up pre- and post- Rebellion data. In keeping with Shampoohorn's analysis, I have also included average cost per ultra-rare. In addition, I have added statistics for variation in the average to the 95% confidence interval, using the assumption that drop rates follow a Poisson distribution. It might be worth noting that the sample sizes for standard Spectre Packs since the release of Rebellion have been small enough that there are fairly large error margins for those data sets (that is, take the bolded numbers for regular Spectre Packs with a grain of salt).


TOTAL

Spectre Packs: 2123
Ultra-Rares: 118
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 5.5582% (+/-1.0233% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,079,471 Credits (+243,601/-167,847 Credits to 95% CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 4191
Ultra-Rares: 494
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 11.7872% (+/-1.0607% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 839,896 Credits (+83,051/-69,338 Credits to 95% CI)

Resurgence Packs: 71
Ultra-Rares: 4
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 5.6338% (+/-5.6338% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,757,250 Credits (+∞/-878,625 Credits to 95% CI)

PRE-REBELLION

Spectre Packs: 1660
Ultra-Rares: 78
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 4.6988% (+/-1.0640% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,276,923 Credits (+373,820/-235,774 Credits to 95% CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 2490
Ultra-Rares: 244
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 9.7992% (+/-1.2546% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,010,287 Credits (+148,348/-114,672 Credits to 95% CI)

Resurgence Packs: 71
Ultra-Rares: 4
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 5.6338% (+/-5.6338% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,757,250 Credits (+∞/-878,625 Credits to 95% CI)

PRE-REINFORCEMENT

Spectre Packs: 307
Ultra-Rares: 22
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 7.1661% (+/-3.0556% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 837,272 Credits (+622,411/-250,290 Credits to 95% CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 1399
Ultra-Rares: 198
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 14.1530% (+/-2.0116% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 699,500 Credits (+115,895/-87,050 Credits to 95% CI)

POST-REINFORCEMENT (EARTH)

Spectre Packs: 156
Ultra-Rares: 18
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 11.5385% (+/-5.4393% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 520,000 Credits (+463,739/-166,596 Credits to 95% CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 302
Ultra-Rares: 52
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 17.2154% (+/-4.7756% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 574,962 Credits (+220,668/-124,841 Credits to 95% CI)




* I did not include the following data in these updated numbers, as they were described as estimates and I am uncertain as to how acturater was handling estimates as opposed to hard numbers. I also did not include data from Sacramentum's videos, because I do not currently have time to watch the entirety of those clips; if somebody could summarize them for me, it would be appreciated.

PRE-REBELLION
Bayushi Pochi: 7 URs/200-220 PSPs; 3 URs/400-450 SPs
Hunter of Deathclaws and Tanks: 3URs/~40 PSPs
Dark Absolution: 6 URs/~100 SPs; 0 URs/~50 PSPs and RPs
UKillMeLongTime: 2 URs/? PSPs
PRE-REINFORCEMENT
Dantexr3: 1 URs/? VPs
Sovereign24: 1 URs/?
RhythmlessNinja: 2 URs/?
a load of stanton: 2 URs/? PSPs
AldarionnEB: 7 URs/~30 PSPs
Sharteel: 15 URs/?
The Krauser: 7 URs/? SPs; 2 URs/? PSPs

[mgc1971]

Yesterday I bought 110 PSPs, I got 14 UR and every character/weapon from Earth DLC maxed except the Thypoon AR that's at level two
So I'd say it's not bad at all, 13%

[Neumeusis]

35 PSP here.
4 UR.

[Bastila_Rules]

Got 2 UR from 4 Spectre packs yesterday. Guess I was lucky.

[Ji66aMan]

77 PSP, got 19 UR.

[spudspot]

Bought 26 PSPs in a row yesterday and got 7 URs. Bought another one later without an UR. (Just in case anybody wants to distinguis between buying in bulks and buying only one at a time.)

So it's 7 out of 27.

Does anybody intend to calculate the drop rate since DLC?

[giskard8plus]

30 PSPs, 6 UR.

[dedpockets]

21 UR in 89 psps post earth.

[I_pity_the_fool]

13 UR in 80 PSPs.

[Obidavv]

21 UR in 105 PSPs.

Modifié par Obidavv, 18 juillet 2012 - 11:15 .

[UnknownMercenary]

62 PSPs, 7 URs

[Kuddles]

45 PSPs, 1 UR. I hate you all.

[AsheraII]

I actually kept track of all the gold or better cards I got from buying 15 Premium Spectre Packs last night.

Weapon cards: 16, of which 3 were N7
Mod cards: 11
Gear cards: 4
Char cards: 10
Total: 41 gold cards, so that was 2.73 gold cards per PSP on avarage. 0.2 black cards per PSP.

[Selvec_Darkon]

Now to really ****** people off. Tonight I bought:

5 PSP's = 2 Ultra Rares. Harrier and Saber. Also got two DLC characters, but they don't count.

[Stahlhammer]

Last one yesterday - 55 PSP, 8 UR

[Mandalore313]

45 PSPs - 3 URs (post earth)

[Duchell]

yesterday:
13 PSPs - 3 URs

[Morgotha]

20 PSP : 1 UR!! Utter rubbish!!! I hate the store!!! totally unbalanced!! I so rarely get anything worthwhile its ridiculuos!!! Majority of time I get upgrades to weapons I never use or gear I never use, they really need to address this!! I even saw a player who was N7 level 300 with a maxed N7 destoyer with a lvl 10 Piranah and a lvl 5 Typhoon!! How on earth is this possible!!! I am N7 near enough 1100 and I got 1 new character, 1 new gun and 1 new weapon attachment...big wooo!!!! I was livid after so much game play and time put in to get sweet fa!!!

[Poulpor]

My last 600 spectre pack, i got 50 UR..

The 30 first was with PSP but don't note the odd. take 2x long time with PSP so Spectre pack is THE deal for ultra rare.

[iceytoa1]

Morgotha wrote...

20 PSP : 1 UR!! Utter rubbish!!! I hate the store!!! totally unbalanced!! I so rarely get anything worthwhile its ridiculuos!!! Majority of time I get upgrades to weapons I never use or gear I never use, they really need to address this!! I even saw a player who was N7 level 300 with a maxed N7 destoyer with a lvl 10 Piranah and a lvl 5 Typhoon!! How on earth is this possible!!! I am N7 near enough 1100 and I got 1 new character, 1 new gun and 1 new weapon attachment...big wooo!!!! I was livid after so much game play and time put in to get sweet fa!!!

The store needs to be nerfed

[Grotaiche]

spudspot wrote...

Does anybody intend to calculate the drop rate since DLC?

Yup, look at the post in top of this page, under the section entitled "POST-REINFORCEMENT (EARTH)".

[bigfutus]

iceytoa1 wrote...
The store needs to be nerfed

Agree
http://s496.photobuc...12-19-10-28.jpg

[xxHarbinger]

Ok, I will begin to keep track from now on. But, can someone tell me what a Resurgence pack is?

[chcknwng]

Interesting. The drop rate does not follow a Poisson distribution. Actually the drop rate could be a constant, if Bioware does not use random drop rates (they could let the rate vary I just don't see a reason). What is random is how many URs you got from a fixed number of PSPs you buy. This is a binomial distribution. To be more technical, binomial and Poisson are related. But I do think it would be better to model it as binomial. If you model it as Poisson, you mean that no matter how many PSPs you guys buy, the average is likely a fixed number, which is clearly not the case here.  (The more you buy, the more UR you will get. Else why we bother with buying?)

Instead of agrregating, you could estimate drop rate for each individual/ buy. I have to take a closer look at the data but I assume we have enough to do a normal approximation than using the binomial.

On my phone now. Will do it later.

Modifié par wngmv, 22 juillet 2012 - 11:38 .

[Olivia Wilde]

Since my last post in this thread

12 UR's in 100 PsP

2 UR in 25 SP