363 réponses à ce sujet

[Renku]

60 PSP - 12 UR

[GreatBlueHeron]

I bought 3 specter packs two nights ago and in the last one got an upgrade to my saber (yes!) and also got an upgrad to my pistol cranial trauma system (not a weapon, but still cool). Unfortunatly, my sample size is statistically insignificant. I have noticed within the last week or so that the specter packs seem to be containing at 2 rares or better rather than the usual one. That's fine with me.

[rahab984]

it not what the % of which pack has higher rate of droping the ur,rather than how much money you need to spend to actually get one.judging from the data you gave.they are roughly the same.

Modifié par rahab984, 10 août 2012 - 02:26 .

[Sentinel_Zero]

Not sure how many packs Ive bought but a friend once told me not to buy packs while in the lobby. And I have to say, I have had more success (in receiving UR's) buying packs out of the lobby than I did while in. Also, I normally play till I have between 400k to 800k credits (on average) and then buy PSP's. I almost always get at least one UR out of 4 packs, not always, but a majority of the time. Once I do get a UR I usually stop buying PSP's and play for awhile before trying my luck again. As I said, this is what I do and what has worked for me (as evidenced by my manifest). Not saying it will work for everyone but just wanted to throw it out there.

[Sabina261187]

 
64 (1 crash and wasnt given the items) PSP - 2 UR... 

Vid: http://www.youtube.c...I&feature=plcp 

Modifié par Sabina261187, 12 août 2012 - 07:31 .

[UnknownMercenary]

37 PSPs, 5 URs, 16 gears.

5 SPs, 1 gear.

[bigfutus]

50 SP
5 UR

[CHAw]

I apologize for yet another long delay, but after spending over 13 million credits to get it, getting hit by the second balance change to the N7 Typhoon only two days later really hurt my morale. It would seem that the random number gods were playing a cruel joke upon me.

Anyway, here's another summary* of results. This tally includes all of the data that acturater has up in the original post.

Per Orca_'s suggestion, I've included statistics dividing up data by time period. In keeping with Shampoohorn's analysis, I have also included average cost per ultra-rare. As wngmv has suggested that the data follows a binomial distribution rather than a Poisson distribution, I am using that assumption to generate error ranges for probability and average cost to the 95% confidence interval (CI).


TOTAL

Spectre Packs: 2373
Ultra-Rares: 136
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 5.7311% (+/-0.2284% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,046,911 Credits (+43,465/-40,133 Credits to 95% CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 5969
Ultra-Rares: 785
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 13.1513% (+/-0.3173% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 752,778 Credits (+18,609/-17,733 Credits to 95% CI)

Resurgence Packs: 71
Ultra-Rares: 4
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 5.6338% (+/-1.2990% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,757,250 Credits (+526,593/-329,257 Credits to 95% CI)

PRE-REBELLION

Spectre Packs: 1660
Ultra-Rares: 78
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 4.6988% (+/-0.3724% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,276,923 Credits (+64,271/-58,39395 Credits CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 2533
Ultra-Rares: 250
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 9.8697% (+/-0.2252% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,003,068 Credits (+39,326/-36,467 Credits to 95% CI)

Resurgence Packs: 71
Ultra-Rares: 4
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 5.6338% (+/-1.2990% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,757,250 Credits (+526,593/-329,257 Credits to 95% CI)

PRE-REINFORCEMENT

Spectre Packs: 307
Ultra-Rares: 22
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 7.1661% (+/-0.7881% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 837,272 Credits (+103,462/-82,959 Credits to 95% CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 1667
Ultra-Rares: 252
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 15.1170% (+/-0.6822% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 654,893 Credits (+30,953/-28,280 Credits to 95% CI)

POST-REINFORCEMENT (EARTH)

Spectre Packs: 406
Ultra-Rares: 36
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 8.8670% (+/-0.6822% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 676,667 Credits (+70,829/-58,568 Credits to 95% CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 1769
Ultra-Rares: 283
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 15.9977% (+/-0.6972% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 618,837 Credits (+28,199/-25,844 Credits to 95% CI)




* I did not include the following data in these updated numbers, as they were described as estimates and I am uncertain as to how acturater was handling estimates as opposed to hard numbers. I also did not include data from Sacramentum's videos, because I do not currently have time to watch the entirety of those clips; if somebody could summarize them for me, it would be appreciated.

PRE-REBELLION
Bayushi Pochi: 7 URs/200-220 PSPs; 3 URs/400-450 SPs
Hunter of Deathclaws and Tanks: 3URs/~40 PSPs
Dark Absolution: 6 URs/~100 SPs; 0 URs/~50 PSPs and RPs
UKillMeLongTime: 2 URs/? PSPs
PRE-REINFORCEMENT
Dantexr3: 1 URs/? VPs
Sovereign24: 1 URs/?
RhythmlessNinja: 2 URs/?
a load of stanton: 2 URs/? PSPs
AldarionnEB: 7 URs/~30 PSPs
Sharteel: 15 URs/?
The Krauser: 7 URs/? SPs; 2 URs/? PSPs
POST-REINFORCEMENT (EARTH)
Sacramentum: video
Poulpor: 50 URs/600 SPs and PSPs
HNNNNNNG: 1 URs/5-7 PSPs
Havok1369: 4 URs/4 SPs and 4 PSPs (logged the other data provided)

Modifié par CHAw, 17 août 2012 - 10:10 .

[Frozen Mind]

Today:
6 PSP
0 UR

[YachiruChin]

Last week:

28 PSPs
7 Ultra-Rares

[WaffleCrab]

My current PSP UR drop rates are at 4,65% and SP drop rate is at 5,7%

the rates are appaling

[artificial-ignorance]

I've been making a record of all my unlocks.  Here's the link: social.bioware.com/forum/1/topic/343/index/13527160/1.

Also, randomfoo has a great online spreadsheet which has some people's PSP UR drop rates if you're interested in more data.  Here is that link:  docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc

My drop rate is low compared to others...

[siris98]

1 specter 1 ur, typhoon awww yea
1 psp 2 gear, meh

[SirFragsALot333]

About 1 in 10 or so, but I'm pretty sure it's completely random and varies from person to person. I even got 2 ultras within 2-3 packs on rare occasion. It's the luck or lack there of with the RNG slot machine.

[UnknownMercenary]

25 PSPs, 4 URs, 10 gears. Have stopped buying packs for now to save up for the next DLC.

[Volatile Device]

The past week

8 Spectre Packs
1 UR

23 Premium Spectre Packs
2 UR

[BelovSL]

15 minutes ago I brought 10 PSP - 1 UR (Indra I).

[CHAw]

For this past weekend, I got:

1 Ultra-Rares in 10 Premium Spectre Packs

[Finnegone]

Last night I completed fully upgrading my arsenal, getting 7 URs (2 Typhoons, 4 PPRs and 1 Harrier) in 5 PSPS. IN A ROW.

I think the odds of that happening around (.13^7) .000063%. It's like winning the lottery, only far less rewarding.

[Renku]

65 PSP - 6 UR

[Grotaiche]

13 PSP, 0 UR.

[UnknownMercenary]

10 SPs, 2 gears. I have all the gears now.
40 PSPs, 5 URs.

[Frozen Mind]

Last few days:
12 PSP - 0 UR.

/// Funny thing like in my last 20 packs I had AFAIK 1 UR... Only Gear unlocks.

[ValorOfArms777]

I already figured it out it's 5% per drop slot

so spectre is 5%
and PSP is 5% in slot 1 and slot 2 of the rare section

it makes sense... and it's prob quite obvious now but they have the ability to alter this over and over... they could at least be nice and provide N7 rarity increase and alert us like a happy hour day thingy 5% is quite a drastically sad number 10% would at least give us a 1/10 chance per drop for sure slot