363 réponses à ce sujet

[CHAw]

Figured that it's time for another summary* of results. This tally includes all of the data that acturater has up in the original post. Per Orca_'s suggestion, I've included statistics dividing up pre- and post- Rebellion data. In keeping with Shampoohorn's analysis, I have also included average cost per ultra-rare.

UPDATE: Added statistics for variation in the average to the 95% confidence interval, using the assumption that drop rates follow a Poisson distribution.


TOTAL

Spectre Packs: 1967
Ultra-Rares: 100
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 5.0839% (+/-1.0167% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,180,200 Credits (+295,050/-196,700 Credits to 95% CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 3789
Ultra-Rares: 432
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 11.4114% (+/-1.0971% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 868,312 Credits (+92,449/-76,219 Credits to 95% CI)

Resurgence Packs: 71
Ultra-Rares: 4
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 5.6338% (+/-5.6338% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,757,250 Credits (+∞/-878,625 Credits to 95% CI)

PRE-REBELLION

Spectre Packs: 1660
Ultra-Rares: 78
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 4.6988% (+/-1.0640% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,276,923 Credits (+373,820/-235,774 Credits to 95% CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 2490
Ultra-Rares: 244
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 9.7992% (+/-1.2546% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,010,287 Credits (+148,348/-114,672 Credits to 95% CI)

Resurgence Packs: 71
Ultra-Rares: 4
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 5.6338% (+/-5.6338% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 1,757,250 Credits (+∞/-878,625 Credits to 95% CI)

POST-REBELLION

Spectre Packs: 307
Ultra-Rares: 22
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 7.1661% (+/-3.0556% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 837,272 Credits (+622,411/-250,290 Credits to 95% CI)

Premium Spectre Packs: 1299
Ultra-Rares: 188
Chance of Ultra-Rare per Pack: 14.4727% (+/-2.1111% to 95% CI)
Cost per Ultra-Rare: 684,047 Credits (+116,818/-87,077 Credits to 95% CI)




* I did not include the following data in these updated numbers, as they were described as estimates and I am uncertain as to how acturater was handling estimates as opposed to hard numbers.

PRE-REBELLION
Bayushi Pochi: 7 URs/200-220 PSPs; 3 URs/400-450 SPs
Hunter of Deathclaws and Tanks: 3URs/~40 PSPs
Dark Absolution: 6 URs/~100 SPs; 0 URs/~50 PSPs and RPs
UKillMeLongTime: 2 URs/? PSPs
POST-REBELLION
Dantexr3: 1 URs/? VPs
Sovereign24: 1 URs/?
RhythmlessNinja: 2 URs/?
a load of stanton: 2 URs/? PSPs
AldarionnEB: 7 URs/~30 PSPs
Sharteel: 15 URs/?
The Krauser: 7 URs/? SPs; 2 URs/? PSPs

Modifié par CHAw, 09 juillet 2012 - 10:19 .

[Pete Zahut]

100 PSPs - 10 Ultra rares

[CHAw]

Somebody I know got the following:

2 Ultra-Rares in 6 Premium Spectre Packs

Something I thought was interesting with the recent changes to reinforcement packs - it would seem that you can now get rare gear from the rare slots. Which means that Premium Spectre Packs are probably more efficient than standard Spectre Packs for just about everything now.

Also, I'll probably try to break up new statistics from this point on from what went before, since the adjustments to the reinforcement packs might have altered ultra-rare frequency (again?).

[Jon Mirra]

4 ultra rares, 1 rare gear and 2 common gear in 10 PSP.

[UnknownMercenary]

Last week:

6 PSPs, 0 UR
27 SPs, 2 UR

[CHAw]

For this past weekend, I received:

3 Ultra-Rares in 20 Premium Spectre Packs

[Eelectrica]

Is it possible to ride hot streaks for UR's?

What I mean is, save 1 million credits as a base. Buy one PSP, get an UR, then with the creds saved, get a whold bunch more UR's until streak ends.

Or is this a fallacy, and sometimes luck produces funny reults?

[UnknownMercenary]

31 SPs, 5 URs

Saving up for the DLC instead of spending more.

[Immaculate J]

Exactly 1 spectre pack bought and 1 UR

[Sopec]

the last 20 spectre packs bought with ingame creds - 0 (0%)
10 spectre packs bought with real money - 1 (10%) (psn card for bday last week)

[d_nought]

Since last time I posted:
67 SP - 9 UR
33 PSP - 2 UR

[PolisMassa]

25 psp, 2 UR

[CHAw]

For this past week, I got:

0 Ultra-Rares in 5 Premium Spectre Packs

Eelectrica wrote...

Is it possible to ride hot streaks for UR's?

What I mean is, save 1 million credits as a base. Buy one PSP, get an UR, then with the creds saved, get a whold bunch more UR's until streak ends.

Or is this a fallacy, and sometimes luck produces funny reults?

I've experienced "hot streaks" myself, but I've also seen them not materialize. I would say that it's just the random number generator being random.

[BoomDynamite]

BUMP

[bigfutus]

60 PSP
11 UR

[Amano Kazumi]

Have about 7.3 million credits saved up for Tuesday, could be closer to 8 million come the DLC. I'll make sure to post my numbers after buying my 80+ PSPs, just make sure this gets a bump or two Tuesday.

[shadowkinz]

hey this isn't accurate though b/c some people may not have all their golds/silvers unlocked and it will change the rate a little, right?

[Amano Kazumi]

shadowkinz wrote...

hey this isn't accurate though b/c some people may not have all their golds/silvers unlocked and it will change the rate a little, right?

The game should check for an UR before Gear/Golds, otherwise we'd never get them. In that light, your current gun status outside of your URs themselves should have no impact on UR drop rate.

[Sacramentum]

3 minutes in it starts iirc

[Yigorse]

From experience, guesswork and what I've heard others say about the issue, my personal guess is.

roughly 2% per card on your spectre packs

roughly 4% per card on your premium spectre packs.

Still, any and all statistical analysis done on this is sort of pointless, however great its scope may be, as it isn't actually going to help anyone get more ultra-rares, and I doubt Bioware will increase the rate any time soon either.

Good luck with this anyway.

[Amano Kazumi]

Yigorse wrote...

From experience, guesswork and what I've heard others say about the issue, my personal guess is.

roughly 2% per card on your spectre packs

roughly 4% per card on your premium spectre packs.

Still, any and all statistical analysis done on this is sort of pointless, however great its scope may be, as it isn't actually going to help anyone get more ultra-rares, and I doubt Bioware will increase the rate any time soon either.

Good luck with this anyway.

Knowing which pack is a better bang for your buck in terms of URs is pretty important. These numbers help solidify that the PSP is best in this regard without just word of mouth or personal experience. There's also a factor of what to expect in your goals, so knowing on average an Ultra-Rare will cost ~800,000 you can plan on if you want to keep going or not, if it's worth it or not.

[Yigorse]

Amano Kazumi wrote...

Yigorse wrote...

From experience, guesswork and what I've heard others say about the issue, my personal guess is.

roughly 2% per card on your spectre packs

roughly 4% per card on your premium spectre packs.

Still, any and all statistical analysis done on this is sort of pointless, however great its scope may be, as it isn't actually going to help anyone get more ultra-rares, and I doubt Bioware will increase the rate any time soon either.

Good luck with this anyway.

Knowing which pack is a better bang for your buck in terms of URs is pretty important. These numbers help solidify that the PSP is best in this regard without just word of mouth or personal experience. There's also a factor of what to expect in your goals, so knowing on average an Ultra-Rare will cost ~800,000 you can plan on if you want to keep going or not, if it's worth it or not.

Ok, fair enough, but we've known for a long time that PSP's give you more ultra-rares per credit spent.  Anything far beyond that is pretty academic, and if you're reading this much into it, you're probably going to keep going anyway

[Grotaiche]

Adding some input pre-Earth DLC : 10 PSPs, got 2 Ultra-Rares.

[kww75]

I have no idea how many PSP I have bought now, but my rate has been a very consistant 1 in 4 packs for N7 ultra rares. The longest run of no UR has been seven packs, and the shortest is 1. I have never burst pack bought always single packs at a time.

I personally believe the rate is actually 15-30% on UR. no where as low as that 9% you are suggesting.

[Siran]

13 Ultras out of 67 PSP (Particle Rifle VII and Typhoon VI - had every other UR already maxed). Almost 20% drop-rate for me, so not much of a change to Rebellion.