This a question that has to be answered before we can begin to guess if we can kill them without turning on the crucible.
Important note: This post is written under the assumption that reapers are not complete morons and are capable of doing basic math and calculating optimal strategies.
TL;DR is at the bottom of the post
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The Leviathan of Dis theory.
The basic idea of this theory says: Leviathan of Dis is a billion years old. It is a reaper. => Reapers are at least a billion years old. They make one (at least) sov-class every 50000 years => there are at least 1000000000/50000=20000 reapers.
Let's look at it more closely:
1) From the Hades Gamma/Dis/Jartar description in ME1:
Jartar is noted for the discovery of the "Leviathan of Dis," the apparent corpse of a genetically engineered living starship. The Leviathan was found in the bottom of a crater by a batarian survey team, and estimated to be nearly a billion years old. It "disappeared" after a visit to the system by a batarian dreadnought twenty years ago.
Since then, the batarians have steadfastly denied that the Leviathan existed at all – and all the more vociferously when shown recordings of the corpse made by salarian researchers.
2) Let’s not forget that the Protheans were unsuitable for a reaper. This is first suggested by EDI when analyzing the ME2 terminator-reaper and further confirmed by neither Vigil nor Javik knowing anything about reapers in their cycle reproducing through the harvesting of organics.
So the theory assumes that
1) The age of the Leviathan was determined accurately
2) Reaper-capable species are a frequent enough occurrence to produce on average at least one reaper per cycle.
3) Reapers did not take significant losses over those hypothetical 20000 cycles
These last two statements don’t have any information to supports them, because we don’t and can’t have any information about any of the previous cycles. Because reapers destroy all information about the previous cycles
We know only one thing. There was a dead reaper in orbit around Mnemosyne.
Yes. We know that 37 million years ago (date confirmed by the studies of the Great Rift Valley on Klendagon and presumably the reaper itself and what remained of the cannon) there were people with a cannon that could one-hit kill a reaper, probably in another solar system, and do this to a planet in yet another solar system. Which is mind-blowingly amazing. How the hell did they aim that thing?
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The ME2 group photo theory
We see this at the end of ME2:
It’s about 300 reapers. For obvious reasons there may be 100 times as many off screen. So we’ll take the 300 as our absolute lower limit.
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The reapers are not morons theory
1. Strategy
Looks like Bioware meant us to believe what the starchild told us. So let’s listen to it for a moment. It says: “We helped them ascend, so they can make way for new life, storing the old life in reaper form”.
That means one of the main goal of the reapers should be self-preservation – they are literally all that remains from countless prior civilizations. They are not disposable cannon fodder. For the idea of preserving civilizations to work they have to be careful to not get killed.
In ME3 we get to see reapers up close and observe their strategies and tactics. So let’s see how they do minimize their losses.
Facts:
- At the moment of the crucible activation all reapers are in Milky Way. Because if that wasn’t the case, then whichever color explosion we chose would just blow up the relays without solving the reaper problem.
- They did not take the citadel at once. Even if they could not shut down the relay network because of whatever unexplained reasons, taking the citadel (or keeping it under siege) would cripple organic resistance. For whatever reason they could not take the citadel.
- When the reapers attacked Earth, they destroyed one fleet of many, with the rest of the human fleets withdrawing - which they didn't pursue and hunt down, instead landing harvesters on Earth to begin reaping humanity.
- When reapers attacked Palaven, they continued fighting in space throughout the entire game, never once committing enough war assets to simply hunt down and destroy the Turian fleet - just enough to hold them off and start harvesting Turians for reaper-building-material and husks and resources.
- Weeks into the war there was one little destroyer on Tuchanka. Not a reaper fleet. Using the Shroud to poison the atmosphere. Why would the reapers want to secretly poison Tuchanka's atmosphere if there are enough of them to occupy Tuchanka at that moment?
- Months into the war there was one little destroyer on Ranncoh. Not a reaper fleet. Did they expect the geth to win the war for them?
- The battle for Earth: the reapers on Earth were pressed so hard that only when the direct need arose did they send a few sov-class reapers including Harbinger to protect the single weak point of their operation – the conduit. Until then it was again a lonely destroyer. (Assuming they had a few million sov-class reapers in Sol and couldn’t be bothered to spare a couple dozen to land and stomp all over Anderson’s command post brings us back to the ‘reapers are all morons’ premise).
- The one thing we do know for sure about the previous cycles: Javik says he was born long after the citadel was taken. After he takes the memory shard he tells of his own time at war: “...Year after year, battle after battle I was hunted by my own people. Until the battle of the Cronian Nebula...”. That’s not mopping up the helpless fleeing remains of a defeated people, that’s active resistance at least decades after the initial attack. The mopping up itself according to Vigil took centuries. It doesn’t matter how good your guns or ships are. If you are stuck somewhere where the enemy can bring infinite reinforcements in and you can’t, you’re dead. If you manage to hold out for decades regardless, it means either the enemy is not nearly as strong as we’re told, or that there aren’t that many of them.
2. Numbers
2.1. In Sol
Bearing all the above listed in mind, let’s look at this cutscene.
Here is the biggest group shot of our reaper friends that is in the game.
It’s right before the battle for Earth begins. I took my time and counted them. It’s about a hundred. The cutscene shows there are more to the left and to the right, so let’s double that number.
200.
Let’s take into account that not necessarily all of the reapers in Sol are in that line.
Let’s triple the number. Why do I only triple it and don’t consider that there are thousands more on the surface or faffing about all over the solar system? Because reapers are supposed to be effective and that line is supposed to stop the single thing in the galaxy that can kill them all. They know about the crucible.
So. 600 reapers in Sol. Give or take.
That is all they could spare to “consolidate power around the Catalyst and protect it at all costs”.
2.2. In the galaxy
They also have to maintain presence in all these places:
That’s 24 clusters besides Sol.
Let’s go into wild speculations area. While I was working on my map, I found that the total amount of clusters that do appear on the map in all three games is 47. Part of those don’t have any significant population to speak of and don’t require large reaper fleets to hold.
We can assume that there are other populated clusters in the galaxy that are never mentioned and that the reapers might occupy. Let’s again triple that number of occupied clusters that are shown on the map. 72.
Round up to 80.
Considering that the reaper forces in Sol are supposed to be the biggest reaper fleet (again, because they “consolidate power around the Catalyst and protect it at all costs”), that means that all those other clusters have less than 600 reaper capital ships in them. Multiplying gives us the upper limit: 48000.
Let’s now figure out the lower limit. Let’s say just the 24 clusters that the map shows are occupied. Let’s remember Rannoch that only had one little destroyer. Let’s say it’s an average 10 sov-class reapers per cluster.
240. Plus 600 in Sol. Less than a thousand.
Let’s now try making reasonable middle ground assumptions. Say those hypothetical 80 clusters that need to be held at this time have an average of 30 sov-class reapers.
2400. Plus 600 at Sol. 3000 total.
3. Replenishing reaper numbers.
We know that reapers make more of themselves from organics who they conquer.
But how and where are reapers made?
We gave seen one instance of a reaper being made – the silly terminator at the end of ME2, that raised more questions than it answered. A few things we can deduce though: to make a reaper you need lots of space, lots of power and lots of organics.
That last point is somewhat clarified in the Reapers: Harvesting codex entry. Relevant part:
You may notice how it’s never said that any reapers are made from all that goo that is flushed to storage vats.The processor ships reduce victims to a transportable liquid. Like in a slaughterhouse, the ships' design prevents victims from seeing or hearing what happens elsewhere so that they do not panic. The victims are ushered into locking pods, then rent apart and dissolved into paste that is flushed to storage vats.
Then at the end of the Cerberus HQ mission some interesting things are said:
1) Vendetta: The citadel is in position. The reapers are preparing to complete their harvest of your species.
2) Anderson: I've got a team in London. The reapers have been preparing for something here. Now we know what for.
Add to that the beam that transports people aboard the citadel and Anderson asking whether they may be making the reaper there once he gets aboard himself.
Add to that the fact that the entity that sets their basic priorities is on the citadel too.
Wild speculation: Is the citadel among other things the actual reaper-making factory?
Nowhere in the game is it ever implied that they are making more of themselves. If the citadel is the factory that makes them – then until they take it they can’t replenish their losses. Even if it isn’t – the reaper-making process still takes time.
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TL;DR:
According to the cutscenes and to what little is shown of reaper strategies and tactics in ME3, there are either no more than a few thousand sov-class reapers or they are all morons. In either case why can’t we fight them without the crucible again?
Which brings us to this poll that is tangentially related to the topic. Please vote.
A big thank you for a lot of these materials and ideas goes to the following wonderful people:
A0170
Byronic-Knight
Elyiia
Noelemahc
Raynulf
Another big thank you goes to anyone who read that huge wall of text.
Modifié par a.m.p, 30 avril 2012 - 09:36 .
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