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N7 Promotional Weapons and Ultra-Rares. Times, % and Calulations. Spend $3520 AU OR play for 571.6 Hours on Gold (25 mins per game and always win) Or total Game time is between 700 - 800 Game hours


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#101
zerozen00

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So, any words from Bioware? Did they reply to your message?

/zen

#102
svocke2

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The multiplayer doesnt have even close to enough variety to keep 90% of players interested and playing till the end of the summer, much less a year and a half. Take into account that many players have never even gotten on these forums, the fact that 600 hours of the same 7 maps is simply unthinkable for most people, a flawed unlock system, and you have yourself a dying multiplayer. Bioware went out of it's depth with the multiplayer. I am a huge fan of the franchise, and i play fairly often when i have free time available. I still havent unlocked a single Ultra-rare. In the same about of time I played BF3 (don't bite my head off. Love it or hate it, it is an enormously successful multiplayer), I unlocked nearly every weapon and attachment in the game.

Modifié par svocke2, 09 mai 2012 - 05:08 .


#103
masseffectinglife

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zerozen00 wrote...

So, any words from Bioware? Did they reply to your message?

/zen


My inbox is empty. But it has not been that long.

#104
nasteerus

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why can't we just buy our weapons?

I don't believe in luck or chance! Those packs should only give us weappon mods and xp or character unlocks. I'm very tired of getting character cards and junk that I don't need.

#105
gaminazn

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Wesus wrote...

Got all bar scorpion on x (scorpion VIII) and on my 2nd account I got BW IV and all other u-r's on I or II

Game has been out for 2 months.

Your arguement is invalid.


The man said ALL Ultra rare weapons. You only have 1 at 10 and a BW 4. You have proven the point.

By the OP's math, you have 10+2+6*2=  24 out 80. You're only 31% of the way there.

#106
gaminazn

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masseffectinglife wrote...

My questions (not accusations) to Bioware is:

Is this Time frame reasonable (571.6 Hours worth of playing)(for non-bioware point buying customers?)
Is there enough longevity in MP to justify this drop rate?
Will Bioware run the N7 ops for the next 1.5 years?
Is the MP more designed for bioware points because of this time frame?


No. It is not reasonable. And your calculation assumes perfect games. Real life puts you at an average of 25-28 minutes for a completed gold match. And a success rate of about 85%. IME.

Add on the lobby wait times and.... the hours shoot up. The real world time is probably closer to 800 hours.

#107
Achossa

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masseffectinglife wrote...

So from two samples we get

Hours = 466.8
Cost = $2618


You see, between me and you the differnce is some 30%.

You are basing this on the number of my URs against the overall number of rares. In the mean time I have gotten 3 URs so now it's 18/215 which would imply that my odds have increased. Now imagine a person that has received an UR 50 times, they're odds are certainly not 50/215.
Further more, the rare cards still drop in the packs (and are a guarantee in SPs). I see no basis for the 215 other than that is the total number of rares, but we have all received much more than 215.

The only way you could come up with a somewhat accurate calculation is to divide the number of URs with both the number of SPs and PSPs you have purchased, cause they have separate odds at droping an UR. :)

I believe that with all the rares maxed you we still face the same odds of receiving an UR instead of a rare in the packs. Only the rare is always goung to be a character card. :)

#108
diggisaur

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I think the Ultra Rare N7s are better than the Promotional N7s anyway.

#109
Cazlee

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My N7 drop rate has been a lot less than 5% lately. 3 mil for 1 N7. -_-

#110
masseffectinglife

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Achossa wrote...

masseffectinglife wrote...

So from two samples we get

Hours = 466.8
Cost = $2618


You see, between me and you the differnce is some 30%.

You are basing this on the number of my URs against the overall number of rares. In the mean time I have gotten 3 URs so now it's 18/215 which would imply that my odds have increased. Now imagine a person that has received an UR 50 times, they're odds are certainly not 50/215.
Further more, the rare cards still drop in the packs (and are a guarantee in SPs). I see no basis for the 215 other than that is the total number of rares, but we have all received much more than 215.

The only way you could come up with a somewhat accurate calculation is to divide the number of URs with both the number of SPs and PSPs you have purchased, cause they have separate odds at droping an UR. :)

I believe that with all the rares maxed you we still face the same odds of receiving an UR instead of a rare in the packs. Only the rare is always goung to be a character card. :)


 I am not basing that off the number of rares.

If you read I based if off an assumption:
1) that you brought only Spectre packs,
2) You stopped buying rares when you were full of them.

Since 2 is not true the rate i worked out is much higher then the real UR Drop-Rate.

That would account for some of the 30% difference.

That is what all my calculations have been based on.

Given that there is no other way to accurately gather information I did the best I could with what was available.

200 Rares and 15 URs.

Total Spectre packs pruchased = 215.

15/215 = 6.9% (Assuming you stopped buying Rares when you were full of them.


if the person had 50 URS and assuming they had not recieved other already achieved rares then the number would be 50/250. but that is not possible and the Rate calculated would be much higher, since I can not account for the repeating Rares.

I understand that both PSP purchases are nto accounted for and Character Rares already recieved do not show on the manifest. But in the case of the latter your arguement would increasingly be driven into my favourite and a lower Percentage UR Drop-rate would be the product. Ie the total rate 215 would be increased much more then the UR drops due to the 5% drop rate.
Since you stated you "but we have all received much more than 215."

In theory      

Y = X/(20)


Where: X = Total Spectre Packs Purchased.
Y = UR Drops

My orginal calculations stand more closure to an acutaly UR rate drop due to:
1) I have mostly purchased Spretre Packs
2) I have only just aprroximately recieved all the Rares incluiding accounting for the repeating Characters.
Therefore my total packs are 210 with 10 URs + 200 Rares.

And as gaminazn  pointed out. The hour rate means you win every 25 mins. And not every one does and the lobby wait takes time.

So at 571.6 hours playing 2 hours a day every day would take 285.8 days not including loading times and waiting times.
Assuming it take 3 mins to start a game from each game completed (or to load origin and me3 mp).

1372 games
Means you can add 68.6 hours to that.

so 640.2 and with an 90% win rate means 704.22 hours needed.
(The win rate loss of 10% addes 10% to the total and assumes you win no money.)

Modifié par masseffectinglife, 10 mai 2012 - 11:49 .


#111
Achossa

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I see, you're pretty much going for the best case scenario here. So we could approximate what's the high chance of getting an UR. Thus knowing that it can only be lower.

OK, I believe you only need to factor in the consumable rare cards (capacity + and 3 respec) which make a total of 215 rares.

So yes, if you assume only SPs and that while maxing all rares I got 15 URs it's 15/230 = 6.5%

Now this has a great margin of error, let's assume I have bought twice as much packs (much closer to the actual number) and now I have 18 URs        18/460 = 3.9 % which is just over 1.5 mil credits per UR

assuming you you can do some 25 gold matches in 10 hours with the approximate success rate of 80% for payoff  (I believe this is rather fair as we're talking about mostly very good players here) 20*70k + 5*35k = 1.57 mil

so 1 UR for every 10h comes up to 800h for N7 X
this will probably vary by some 10 - 20 %

Yep, your results sound plausable for about the highest odds of getting URs :)

Modifié par Achossa, 10 mai 2012 - 12:30 .


#112
Scam_poo

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Yeah, alright. I appreciate the efforts, but I think it's pointless to think about getting an Ultra Rare weapon to X because you don't need it, not even in Gold Solos.

#113
Achossa

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Scam_poo wrote...

Yeah, alright. I appreciate the efforts, but I think it's pointless to think about getting an Ultra Rare weapon to X because you don't need it, not even in Gold Solos.

But wouldn't it be so cool and OP to have a Paladin X
I know, I don't use any of the URs, only N7 I use is the Valiant (don't have BW), but then again I'm certain someone can solo gold with a Predator so, you know...

#114
masseffectinglife

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Achossa wrote...

I see, you're pretty much going for the best case scenario here. So we could approximate what's the high chance of getting an UR. Thus knowing that it can only be lower.

OK, I believe you only need to factor in the consumable rare cards (capacity + and 3 respec) which make a total of 215 rares.

So yes, if you assume only SPs and that while maxing all rares I got 15 URs it's 15/230 = 6.5%

Now this has a great margin of error, let's assume I have bought twice as much packs (much closer to the actual number) and now I have 18 URs        18/460 = 3.9 % which is just over 1.5 mil credits per UR

assuming you you can do some 25 gold matches in 10 hours with the approximate success rate of 80% for payoff  (I believe this is rather fair as we're talking about mostly very good players here) 20*70k + 5*35k = 1.57 mil

so 1 UR for every 10h comes up to 800h for N7 X
this will probably vary by some 10 - 20 %

Yep, your results sound plausable for about the highest odds of getting URs :)


Cools....

Glad we both agree :D

but does that include a 3 minute wait time between games?

So the question is now. Is this a reasonable time frame for MP given the longivity of the game?

Modifié par masseffectinglife, 10 mai 2012 - 01:45 .


#115
masseffectinglife

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Achossa wrote...

Scam_poo wrote...

Yeah, alright. I appreciate the efforts, but I think it's pointless to think about getting an Ultra Rare weapon to X because you don't need it, not even in Gold Solos.

But wouldn't it be so cool and OP to have a Paladin X
I know, I don't use any of the URs, only N7 I use is the Valiant (don't have BW), but then again I'm certain someone can solo gold with a Predator so, you know...


It is true About URs. I don't think Ur's are equal to Rares till about level 5? That is a guess.
My level X Widow is better then my level 2 Jalvin. But even as a sniper rifle and given the nature of multiply targets and the reload times, even my Level 2 Saber then my Jalvin.

I think that it would be cool to max out my Paladin but I don't think it is reasonable to expect to do so.

Not for 800+ hours.

#116
Achossa

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masseffectinglife wrote...

So the question is now. Is this a reasonable time frame for MP given the longivity of the game?

Well with every one you get you'll want to play just a little bit longer.
Plus if you got nothing else you can always do one match of MP :D

#117
masseffectinglife

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So I know bioware mods the forums, are they interested in addressing this?
I really hope so.

#118
masseffectinglife

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Achossa wrote...

masseffectinglife wrote...

So the question is now. Is this a reasonable time frame for MP given the longivity of the game?

Well with every one you get you'll want to play just a little bit longer.
Plus if you got nothing else you can always do one match of MP :D


yer I jumped on today with some mates. But I could only enjoy playing one set.

If I got an UR I would play another but to and far between I'm afraid. When the next dlc comes out I will play again.

Maybe time away will make the game more enjoyable. I hope so.

Also a new MODE would be the ticket to enjoying this game again, cause stuff is not making it that worth it.

#119
zerozen00

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masseffectinglife wrote...

So I know bioware mods the forums, are they interested in addressing this?
I really hope so.

Then I take it that you haven't received a reply to your PM yet.

And I think I can sit back and relax and just follow the thread, seeing that what I could say in this thread is already being posted by you and Achossa, and I agree with both of you.

/zen

Modifié par zerozen00, 10 mai 2012 - 02:01 .


#120
Ben Shep

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The whole thing is a con and typical of greedy ea.

Spend money or play for an eternity to unlock things that are ALREADY ON THE ****ING DISC.

Sorry rant over.

#121
masseffectinglife

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Half the battle is knowing. I think seeing the number out in the open is really an eye opener.

No reply from Bioware yet. Not even a reply about their intentions to reply.

Modifié par masseffectinglife, 10 mai 2012 - 02:12 .


#122
Achossa

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I don't expect them to reply, we already know the chances for an UR are very low.
So someone from BW coming up and saying it's not 4 nor 5 % but it's actually 4.32 % would not make much point.

#123
Dorje Sylas

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masseffectinglife wrote...

So I know bioware mods the forums, are they interested in addressing this?
I really hope so.


Ha! Not a snowballs chance in Arizona (which is not to say impossible, but extremely unlikely at low elevations). Your math pretty much shows that "the only winning move is not to play" in this unlock system. Both time and monetary costs are probatively flawed.

I wonder what could be raised if someone threw open a KickStarter like project to collect "Pack" money to fund an independent video game development. Could the current ME3 community, if we spent the money investing in our own game/game-studio raise enough to make a more robust and effective game then ME3? One not controlled by the iron pants of EA.

#124
masseffectinglife

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Dorje Sylas wrote...

masseffectinglife wrote...

So I know bioware mods the forums, are they interested in addressing this?
I really hope so.


Ha! Not a snowballs chance in Arizona (which is not to say impossible, but extremely unlikely at low elevations). Your math pretty much shows that "the only winning move is not to play" in this unlock system. Both time and monetary costs are probatively flawed.

I wonder what could be raised if someone threw open a KickStarter like project to collect "Pack" money to fund an independent video game development. Could the current ME3 community, if we spent the money investing in our own game/game-studio raise enough to make a more robust and effective game then ME3? One not controlled by the iron pants of EA.


True, but i think now that they know we know, and have worked it out and have proof they might change it.

A community gaming company? that would be interesting. If the idea could get off the groun it would be great to see if it would work.

To the Credit of the Bioware staff, they are highly trained and passionate people. Not just anyone can do what they do.
If the EA presence was exorcisted from bioware maybe people would love bioware again and just blame EA for the Ending and Day one DLC and ect ect.

Modifié par masseffectinglife, 10 mai 2012 - 02:40 .


#125
zerozen00

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masseffectinglife wrote...

A community gaming company? that would be interesting. If the idea could get off the groun it would be great to see if it would work.

This is truly something I'd like to see. And something I'd be interested in working for.

/zen

Modifié par zerozen00, 10 mai 2012 - 02:40 .