2 new permanent packs = good job Bioware :)
#101
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:15
So lazy on Bioware's part. I am disappoint.
#102
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:16
#103
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:20
MuteSyndrome wrote...
Quick tip about statistics...
If you have a Red, Blue, Green, and Yellow ball in the bucket, you have a 25% chance of getting a yellow ball. (This is where the fun begins.)
If you remove it, then your odds of getting the other balls are raised. (You can't get the yellow ball again.)
If you add the ball back into the bucket after each draw, you keep the 25% chance of yellow the same. It is simply fate.
It makes virtually no difference how many you buy. Your odds are reset each time. It's called an Independent Event. There is no way to guarantee outcome no matter which packs you buy...or however many credits you spend. You are ~ 2x as likely to get Black Cards from the PSPs, You're paying for better odds, not a for sure thing. This price is < Spec Packs x2. So saying that buying 10 spec packs @ $ and 10 PSPs @ $ is worthless. Your chances vary. You're paying for odds, not for a black card eventually. You can buy either a hundred times and get nothing, or max out in your first 50. It's luck!
EDIT: You could account for the Black Cards you've already received, but considering how few are given it only becomes relevant as you get closer to maxing. OR DOES IT? Lol, I have no idea.
DOUBLE EDIT: If you believe your odds increase for a perfectly random event each time it is performed, (which you would if you're trying to compare credits spent to Black Cards received,) it's called the Gambler's Fallacy.
THE MORE YOU KNOW
This is not entirely accurate. Independent events are not additive as you point out, but greater sample sizes yield less statistical variance. So the more packs you buy the greater your overall chance of achieving the average drop rate. If you buy 50 PSP's you should have a much greater chance of achieving the average drop rate than if you only buy 10 (in which case you are much more likely to have a drop rate significantly different from the average).
Thus when I and others talk about buying 50+ PSP's and only receiving one ultra rare, it isn't that we believe that it isn't possible or that we should have exactly 4.5 ultra rares, it's that we realize the odds of goig through 50 PSP's and only receiving one ulra rare are extremely small. The fact that many of us are experiencing something similar makes it all the more puzzling.
#104
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:22
#105
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:22
It would also be interesting to be kept apprised of the effect of having the Jumbo Equipment Pack around for 1 month (4 weeks) will be on item usage. I can usually get through a Silver game using no more then two of each consumable (sometimes less) so the net gain starts coming close to 2 or 3 per round.
#106
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:24
#107
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:27
Derek Hollan wrote...
Yes, the Premium Spectre and Jumbo Equipment packs are permanent additions to the store.
Enjoy!
Respect to the man with the ice cream van.
#108
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:29
#109
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:29
#110
Guest_Guest12345_*
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:32
Guest_Guest12345_*
#111
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:32
It sucked before because I become EXTREMELY stingy when I get below 50, like only use one or two per match which is horrible when I have a bad night ( like last night, ughhh I was sucking it up ) and I know my teammates are hating me but I refuse to use any Medi-gels in wave 8-9 O_o
#112
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:33
happy now!
#113
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:35
PanzerBallz wrote...
um, how is he the one not understanding math well?Sdrol117 wrote...
EvilDeity wrote...
Sdrol117 wrote...
EvilDeity wrote...
Derek Hollan wrote...
Yes, the Premium Spectre and Jumbo Equipment packs are permanent additions to the store.
Enjoy!
If all you're after is Ultra Rare (Black/N7) weapons are Premium Spectre Packs or Spectre Packs more cost effective?
preimums obviously. I don't even know why you have to ask that.
Because the increased chance of getting Ultra Rares from PSPs might not be enough of an increase to make the 39000 more credits you have to pay for one actually more cost effective that a regular Spectre Pack.
Does anyone know?
You don't understand math very well. This is funny.
PSPs are said to have increased chance of ultra-rares but they also cost 39000 more, so in terms of using your credits wisely, you can't say with absolute certainty which one is better.
You mean besides the math that says you save money and get the chance for 2 N7 guns? Derp.
#114
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:38
Modifié par Vapaä, 09 mai 2012 - 11:38 .
#115
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:39
#116
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:40
Derek Hollan wrote...
Yes, the Premium Spectre and Jumbo Equipment packs are permanent additions to the store.
Enjoy!
Sweet! Thanks!
#117
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:41
Modifié par PanzerBallz, 09 mai 2012 - 11:43 .
#118
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:44
#119
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:45
PanzerBallz wrote...
The drop rates for ultra-rares are not the same for everyone. Some people will be lucky; some won't. So whether you keep buying regular spectre packs or try your luck at premiums. It makes no difference. If you say that premiums save you money compared to spectres, you better have some proof to back it up, preferably with a large sample size from a large number of people
You sound confused. Luckis luck, you increase your luck by giving yourself 2 chances for less than 120k. No matter how you look at it, PSP wins, and your argument fails.Stop talking.
#120
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:49
The cynic in me says that they are doing this because they are tired of alternating the packs each week, and now we won't have weekly specials anymore.
#122
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:58
#123
Posté 09 mai 2012 - 11:59
#124
Posté 10 mai 2012 - 12:06
Derek Hollan wrote...
Yes, the Premium Spectre and Jumbo Equipment packs are permanent additions to the store.
Enjoy!
Kudos!
#125
Posté 10 mai 2012 - 12:15





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