209 réponses à ce sujet

[HunterKiller_]

Fantastic.

But now I'm going to complain about it.

[AwesomeDudex64]

*GASP*

Awesome sauce.

[Deflagratio]

I really like PSP's to upgrade gold weapons, but after that... I think I'd rather stick to regular spectre packs to try for N7's.

JEP is pure win, especially since Medi-gel and Survival packs only work right about half the time.

[Fighter084]

Sigh. I love the fact these two packs are now permanent. However, after just dumping 1.5 million credits on the PSP and getting nothing but character cards after I've already maxed all rare/gold characters is just depressing. Not a single ultra-rare from 30 rare or above cards. It's so pathetic for me. I've been playing since day one that ME3 came out and I've only gotten 7 ultra-rare cards in all this time. I've already maxed all of the gold weapons and only a few silvers left to max. Same with the characters. I'm so tired of this trying to get ultra-rares and getting nowhere while someone with N7 100 appears with a paladin V or black widow V. Yeah, I'm out of this except for promotional weekends where I can get commendation packs. So depressing.

[Apl_Juice]

:S

Don't know how I feel about permanent equipment packs. Now I can fire off Cobras and use Medi-Gel like its crack.

[chcknwng]

Atheosis wrote...

MuteSyndrome wrote...

Quick tip about statistics...
If you have a Red, Blue, Green, and Yellow ball in the bucket, you have a 25% chance of getting a yellow ball. (This is where the fun begins.)
If you remove it, then your odds of getting the other balls are raised. (You can't get the yellow ball again.)
If you add the ball back into the bucket after each draw, you keep the 25% chance of yellow the same. It is simply fate.

It makes virtually no difference how many you buy. Your odds are reset each time. It's called an Independent Event. There is no way to guarantee outcome no matter which packs you buy...or however many credits you spend. You are ~ 2x as likely to get Black Cards from the PSPs, You're paying for better odds, not a for sure thing. This price is < Spec Packs x2. So saying that buying 10 spec packs @ $ and 10 PSPs @ $ is worthless. Your chances vary. You're paying for odds, not for a black card eventually. You can buy either a hundred times and get nothing, or max out in your first 50. It's luck!

EDIT: You could account for the Black Cards you've already received, but considering how few are given it only becomes relevant as you get closer to maxing. OR DOES IT? Lol, I have no idea. 

DOUBLE EDIT: If you believe your odds increase for a perfectly random event each time it is performed, (which you would if you're trying to compare credits spent to Black Cards received,) it's called the Gambler's Fallacy.

THE MORE YOU KNOW

This is not entirely accurate.  Independent events are not additive as you point out, but greater sample sizes yield less statistical variance.  So the more packs you buy the greater your overall chance of achieving the average drop rate.  If you buy 50 PSP's you should have a much greater chance of achieving the average drop rate than if you only buy 10 (in which case you are much more likely to have a drop rate significantly different from the average).

Thus when I and others talk about buying 50+ PSP's and only receiving one ultra rare, it isn't that we believe that it isn't possible or that we should have exactly 4.5 ultra rares, it's that we realize the odds of goig through 50 PSP's and only receiving one ulra rare are extremely small.  The fact that many of us are experiencing something similar makes it all the more puzzling.

First of all, that is not called independent. That is called sampling with replacement. The independece comes from this. Sampling without replacement causes the probability to change every time you draw a ball from the urn and also dependency. But when the urn contains a lot of balls, the difference between replacement and without replacement becomes neglegible. MuteSyndrome is correct in saying the probability (not odds, they are different things) of getting black are approximately twice that of buying Spectre pack. In this case, the probability of getting a black is (I believe 5%), which makes the probability of getting a black item in PSP 10.25%, if the two slots in PSP are independent. We don't know how BW assign the probabilities, and we don't know the relationship between them either. 

Statistically everything with a non 0 probability can happen. But most events with very small probability won't happen, like if you buy a lottery one time you are not going to win. Things change when you buy a lot of lotteries. Atheosis is right in saying the more you buy, the more likely you are to approach the average drop rate. Even though with each individual pack we cannot say with certainty you are getting or not getting a black item, the average should behave more stable. I'm pretty sure if I was to carry out a formal hypothesis testing I would reject the null that drop rate is 5%.

[Fison]

Fighter084 wrote...

Sigh. I love the fact these two packs are now permanent. However, after just dumping 1.5 million credits on the PSP and getting nothing but character cards after I've already maxed all rare/gold characters is just depressing. Not a single ultra-rare from 30 rare or above cards. It's so pathetic for me. I've been playing since day one that ME3 came out and I've only gotten 7 ultra-rare cards in all this time. I've already maxed all of the gold weapons and only a few silvers left to max. Same with the characters. I'm so tired of this trying to get ultra-rares and getting nowhere while someone with N7 100 appears with a paladin V or black widow V. Yeah, I'm out of this except for promotional weekends where I can get commendation packs. So depressing.

I have got to say I agree.  The work/reward ratio is aweful for players with decent MP time.  It IS the sort of thing that will put a lot of people off MP I think.

The rewards are - higher N7 rating/better weapon.  Dont really care about N7 rating, and if we are not getting the weapons, the "work" aspect of MP has no satisfaction.

Even a MP shop which has credit cost for weapons would be better.  2mill for a black widow upgrade, would be something to aim for anyway (no pun intended) and more desireable than winning the ultra rare lotto!  I am sure Bioware could earns some cash this way too.

[Scottus4]

Amazing.

[WrathPit]

Seems like prep for the next dlc pack which makes me anticipate like a mo fo.

[verbz99]

Way
To
Go

[GoofyRider]

I got only ONE rare from this perma psp, which is a character card. and my weapons are far from lvl X, woot.

[Velocithon]

THANK YOU.

[Crusader75]

Derek Hollan wrote...

Yes, the Premium Spectre and Jumbo Equipment packs are permanent additions to the store.
Enjoy!

Nice!

+ Like

[dr octagon 3000]

Perhaps this will open the door for new pricey packs with higher ultra rare drop rate...that'd be cool

[Tankcommander]

Glad to hear it. The PSP is great, and the jumbo is the only reason I had any medigel or missiles (NEVER got them otherwise for some strange reason).

Bought tons of them the other day so I have about 150 in all equip now, which is nice. Still don't ever use any of it tho, feel like using a missile or medigel is wrong

[joker_jack]

Now to prepare for the weekends event.

[morph4037]

All I have to say is : THANK GOODNESS!!!

Thanks much.

[WiqidBritt]

REVIVE ME wrote...

not thank you, but more like "bout time"

It's like if that friend owes you 50$ but pays for your lunch, it's nice, but you still are wondering when your gonna get the rest.

except Bioware doesn't OWE you anything.

[Wang Lightning]

These'll be extremely handy. Good move, multiplayer team

[DragonRacer]

As a PS3 user, it was Christmas when I went to the store -- two commendation packs from the operations we missed out on, plus permanent PSPs and jumbo equipment packs.

I... actually might have shed a tear or two.

[MuteSyndrome]

Atheosis wrote...

MuteSyndrome wrote...

Quick tip about statistics...
If you have a Red, Blue, Green, and Yellow ball in the bucket, you have a 25% chance of getting a yellow ball. (This is where the fun begins.)
If you remove it, then your odds of getting the other balls are raised. (You can't get the yellow ball again.)
If you add the ball back into the bucket after each draw, you keep the 25% chance of yellow the same. It is simply fate.

It makes virtually no difference how many you buy. Your odds are reset each time. It's called an Independent Event. There is no way to guarantee outcome no matter which packs you buy...or however many credits you spend. You are ~ 2x as likely to get Black Cards from the PSPs, You're paying for better odds, not a for sure thing. This price is < Spec Packs x2. So saying that buying 10 spec packs @ $ and 10 PSPs @ $ is worthless. Your chances vary. You're paying for odds, not for a black card eventually. You can buy either a hundred times and get nothing, or max out in your first 50. It's luck!

EDIT: You could account for the Black Cards you've already received, but considering how few are given it only becomes relevant as you get closer to maxing. OR DOES IT? Lol, I have no idea. 

DOUBLE EDIT: If you believe your odds increase for a perfectly random event each time it is performed, (which you would if you're trying to compare credits spent to Black Cards received,) it's called the Gambler's Fallacy.

THE MORE YOU KNOW

This is not entirely accurate.  Independent events are not additive as you point out, but greater sample sizes yield less statistical variance.  So the more packs you buy the greater your overall chance of achieving the average drop rate.  If you buy 50 PSP's you should have a much greater chance of achieving the average drop rate than if you only buy 10 (in which case you are much more likely to have a drop rate significantly different from the average).

Thus when I and others talk about buying 50+ PSP's and only receiving one ultra rare, it isn't that we believe that it isn't possible or that we should have exactly 4.5 ultra rares, it's that we realize the odds of goig through 50 PSP's and only receiving one ulra rare are extremely small.  The fact that many of us are experiencing something similar makes it all the more puzzling.

I understand that part of it, what I'm trying to say (not so eloquently) is that it's not an average. It's a probability. Even if you expand your sample to infinitum it's not going to change that probability rate. We have an unlimited source of dependant variables (char cards etc.). You *should* get closer to an average the larger your sample size, but when you're dealing with random events and an infinite variable it's very difficult to determine whether your P is skewed or you're simply dealing with bad luck.

My main concern is for people asking which to spend their credits on. Like "I have X credits, should I buy PSPs or SPs?" The reality is that neither will gaurantee you anything. The PSPs are simply *more* likely to drop rares. 

[ValorOfArms777]

then were's our perma Premium Vet packs >_> cmon if they make Prem Spec why nto the Prem Vet too?

also I noticed that they don't have any types of packs in Xbox atm whats up?

Modifié par ValorOfArms777, 10 mai 2012 - 02:07 .

[LeandroBraz]

Awesome idea, I hope it means that we will see new types of special soon