153 réponses à ce sujet

[BTCentral]

RNG is RNG, you just happened to get lucky.

There's also a chance you could get an N7 from every single PSP you ever purchased. Extremely low... but still a chance.

Modifié par BTCentral, 11 mai 2012 - 01:00 .

[MoeRayShep]

Atheosis wrote...

Seriously, are people not starting to suspect a bug with all these 50+ PSP streaks with no N7's (with people who have maxed rares mostly I've noticed)? It just seems too freaking common to be bad luck. We're talking about a lot of people experiencing this, and it's ruining the game for many of us.

EDIT: Note, in spite of this post, OP clearly does not grasp the concept of anecdotal evidence

I strongly suspect the RNG is either not using truly random numbers or is implementing them in a dysfunctional algorithm. I posted my suspicions in a thread here regarding the Indra and its drop rate;
basically, somebody I played with managed to attain a Tier X Ultra Rare weapon within 36 hours of its being made available. There were two discrete possibilities:

• The player had an unrealistic amount of credits stored up; in the OP I suspected glitching; the amount of credits needed to obtain any Tier X ultrarare is obscene (my highest UR is Wraith III, and I've been playing MP since the beginning, on top of regularly clearing Gold matches for over a month). Repeated randomness in this fashion should form a standard distribution, so don't argue "ITZ RANDEM!", it falls many, many standard deviations outside the mean.
• The true drop rate of the Indra is not actually UR and/or the drop algorithm preferentially clusters drops of the same item or other such oddness.

Modifié par MoeRayShep, 11 mai 2012 - 01:02 .

[OMG iTz R3PT4R]

 Interesting, though I think you're just very lucky. 

The last 20+ PSP's I've purchased have been nothing but character customization cards for characters I either dont use, have all possible customization options, or have been Lv. 20 so it doesn't do anything anyway, and power resets, which I never use. 

The only triumphant pack-opening I've ever had was when I got the Arc Pistol IX and Arc Pistol X at the same time, and it's not even ultra rare. 

[M A F I A]

To polite posters: To clarify, I got plenty of "empty" PSP as well during my "career".

To rude posters: It's funny how this forum appears to be full of scientists and expert on statistics entirely based on GUESSES since there isn't a SHRED of evidence of OFFICIAL numbers given by Bioware.

Modifié par M A F I A, 11 mai 2012 - 01:20 .

[Atheosis]

M A F I A wrote...

To polite posters: To clarify, I got plenty of "empty" PSP as well during my "career".

To rude posters: It's funny how this forum appears to be full of scientists and expert on statistics entirely based on GUESSES since there isn't a SHRED of evidence of OFFICIAL numbers given by Bioware.

It's called inferrence and conjecture.  People use them to understand things they can't directly observe.

[Jonathan Shepard]

Hm. Lucky. I've only gotten the Saber II when it comes to URs.

[clopin]

M A F I A wrote...

To polite posters: To clarify, I got plenty of "empty" PSP as well during my "career".

To rude posters: It's funny how this forum appears to be full of scientists and expert on statistics entirely based on GUESSES since there isn't a SHRED of evidence of OFFICIAL numbers given by Bioware.

That's exactly what you're doing, except off of a tiny sample.

[M A F I A]

clopin wrote...

M A F I A wrote...

To polite posters: To clarify, I got plenty of "empty" PSP as well during my "career".

To rude posters: It's funny how this forum appears to be full of scientists and expert on statistics entirely based on GUESSES since there isn't a SHRED of evidence of OFFICIAL numbers given by Bioware.

That's exactly what you're doing, except off of a tiny sample.

Exactly, I said that they are "not too low" which is quite a wide statement and doesn't necessarily means "too high". Besides, I wonder what were the chances of getting such streak as I did?

Modifié par M A F I A, 11 mai 2012 - 02:01 .

[Jernau11]

This is called a demonstration. A demonstration is hardly proof that the N7 drop rates are statistically well balanced.

Modifié par Jernau11, 11 mai 2012 - 01:54 .

[KiraTsukasa]

Ultra rare drop rates are too low! I demand they be guaranteed in recruit packs!

[idunhavaname]

RNG is RNG.

[ReapersFTW]

M A F I A wrote...
Exactly, I said that they are "not too low" which is quite a wide statement. Besides, I wonder what were the chances of getting such streak as I did?

Yea, what are the chances that I go buy the same amount of PSPs and getting even one N7 weapon. My track record is about 3 N7 weapons in about 150+ PSPs. 

[tzabaothg]

clopin wrote...

M A F I A wrote...

To polite posters: To clarify, I got plenty of "empty" PSP as well during my "career".

To rude posters: It's funny how this forum appears to be full of scientists and expert on statistics entirely based on GUESSES since there isn't a SHRED of evidence of OFFICIAL numbers given by Bioware.

That's exactly what you're doing, except off of a tiny sample.

This is assuming he just didn't take screens of URs gathered over the last week or two and throw them up here to troll with.

[PorcelynDoll]

I think the drop rate is incredibly random. I bought over 200k of psp last night hoping to get a Talon upgrade but I just got character cards. Other times I have gotten many upgrades in a row.

[KiraTsukasa]

tzabaothg wrote...

clopin wrote...

M A F I A wrote...

To polite posters: To clarify, I got plenty of "empty" PSP as well during my "career".

To rude posters: It's funny how this forum appears to be full of scientists and expert on statistics entirely based on GUESSES since there isn't a SHRED of evidence of OFFICIAL numbers given by Bioware.

That's exactly what you're doing, except off of a tiny sample.

This is assuming he just didn't take screens of URs gathered over the last week or two and throw them up here to troll with.

Why would anyone ever want to do that?

[Yervan]

Purchased my last PSP for the week, got a Blackwidow I (N7) *sorry forgot to take a printscreen*

[DivineAura]

idunhavaname wrote...

RNG is RNG.

I like that. Easy to remember.

[M A F I A]

clopin wrote...

This is assuming he just didn't take screens of URs gathered over the last week or two and throw them up here to troll with.

Nah, you can check my manifest.

[1jazz]

rates maybe low but not unobtainable. i still consider the rates to be high because it's eventual unlike acutal TCG/CCG where you can buy i whole box and not get that 1 card that you want from the set, but get 4+ copies of the card that you don't use.

[MoeRayShep]

M A F I A wrote...

clopin wrote...

This is assuming he just didn't take screens of URs gathered over the last week or two and throw them up here to troll with.

Nah, you can check my manifest.

Demonstrable lack of critical thinking: check.
FWIW I don't think OP is lying, just doesn't understand why his/her post establishes nothing.
OP also appears to not understand that checking their manifest would not refute clopin's hypothesis.

[Pantyhose Nylonlady]

Why people just cant keep silent about their lucky drops in SP and PSP? Its just so frustrating when you spend so hard-earned gold credits and even dont get decent rares... And then somebody pops up and starting to tell everyone how lucky he is... WTF...

[tzabaothg]

M A F I A wrote...

clopin wrote...

This is assuming he just didn't take screens of URs gathered over the last week or two and throw them up here to troll with.

Nah, you can check my manifest.

I would do so if your profile was not so private.

Private Profile 
You do not have permission to view this profile. 

MM would verify that you do indeed have the weapons you posted but last I checked does not give dates as to when you got the upgrades.

Modifié par tzabaothg, 11 mai 2012 - 02:53 .

[squidney2k1]

It's all luck. I stopped counting at 104 Spectre/Premuim Spectre Packs without an ultra-rare. I'm probably close to 120+ now. Been almosta month since my last ultra-rare.

[Juice Tin]

DeadeyeCYclops78 wrote...

the sun shines on every dogs **** once in awhile, I've went 2 weeks without a n7 upgrade. so it can't be THAT good either, u just got super ultra rare lucky. and yes i've had the PSP with 2 n7's, striker 9, 10 lol like i cared about that gun, i never use it, but anyway

Holy hell that made me laugh right out loud!  Thanks for the laugh.  =)

[Tangster]

MoeRayShep wrote...
I strongly suspect the RNG is either not using truly random numbers or is implementing them in a dysfunctional algorithm. I posted my suspicions in a thread here regarding the Indra and its drop rate;
basically, somebody I played with managed to attain a Tier X Ultra Rare weapon within 36 hours of its being made available.

If it's the same implementation as used in the demo, probably just badly thought out code making the N7's not too rare untill maxing out everything else.

I would've liked to think it was an easy fix if it was the same implementation though, but maybe it's more complex with the additional weapons and the risk of screwing things up is even greater.