153 réponses à ce sujet

[M A F I A]

I finally got my Black Widow I, must be payback for getting so many shotguns (which I dislike) early in the game.

[Lexa_D]

Aw, a u sah cooool...

[Adragalus]

Okay, I just pulled an Indra out of a PSP. On my Xbox.

Wat.

[Saradas85]

this thread only proves one thing: you are shamefully lucky

[Sharteel]

You are so lucky.

So far i got a total of 8 Ultras (but stil no Black W) and a total of 202 rares. Most of them via Premium Specte packs (which claim to give you a higher chance).

A drop rate of under 4% is just sad....

Edit: updated numbers

Modifié par Sharteel, 12 mai 2012 - 03:54 .

[swjobson]

This is whats called an outlier. A minority instance is not representative of the system, by definition. There are others who spend millions without getting an ultra rare.

I'm batting below average. Out of 90+ rare weapon unlocks, and hundreds more character cards, I only have 5 ultra rares combined. This is the result of randomization.

[nuculerman]

I got a Saber II in one pack two days ago. Therefore, by the brilliance of the OP's logic, the n7 drop rate is actually 100%, and everybody should only be getting sabers.

The OP needs to spend less time playing this game, and more time studying for the GED.

[M A F I A]

nuculerman wrote...

The OP needs to spend less time playing this game, and more time studying for the GED.

I leave the "laws of statistics from wikipedia applied to a videogame"  to nerds

Modifié par M A F I A, 11 mai 2012 - 02:31 .

[nuculerman]

M A F I A wrote...

nuculerman wrote...

The OP needs to spend less time playing this game, and more time studying for the GED.

I leave the "law of statistics from wikipedia applied to a videogame"  to nerds

The fact that you think the responses are from nerds who are going to wikipedia to learn about statistics is beyond depressing.  This is math you should have learned in Junior High--High School at the latest.

Hell, it's not even really math.  More like simple logic.  You can't extrapolate a trend based of your individual experience.  The fact you can't grasp this concept leads me to believe you're either just a troll, or you really need to go back and get your GED so you can become a productive member of society.

[M A F I A]

nuculerman wrote...

The fact that you think the responses are from nerds who are going to wikipedia to learn about statistics is beyond depressing.  This is math you should have learned in Junior High--High School at the latest.

Hell, it's not even really math.  More like simple logic.  You can't extrapolate a trend based of your individual experience.  The fact you can't grasp this concept leads me to believe you're either just a troll, or you really need to go back and get your GED so you can become a productive member of society.

Troll Remark: If I was one, you certainly fed me well with your extended bitterness.
Statistics Remark: No, not really, I said "chances are not THAT low" and you (and others) transformed my statements into "chances are so high n7 are commons".

[FistOfSyn]

and on these 4 N7 weapons you received only one is considered ''good'' here

[M A F I A]

Yeah, as I said earlier I went through my waves of "nothing at all", "endless shotguns" and "crap N7" as well. I have been lucky but not THAT lucky. Specifically, about the 4 N7 I got I only liked the Saber VIII and the Javelin II as for the other two... well.

[nuculerman]

M A F I A wrote...
Statistics Remark: No, not really, I said "chances are not THAT low" and you (and others) transformed my statements into "chances are so high n7 are commons".

No.  The issue with your statement is not the magnitude.  The issue is the statement itself.

"Chances are not that low."

-Again, this implies that you can extrapolate, or at the very least roughly estimate, the chances of an n7 drop based off your personal n7 drop rate.  You can't.

Again, an analogy:

It rained yesterday.  Therefore, there's a 100% chance of rain today.  Do you understand the fallacy here?  To get a meaningful estimate, don't you think I should look at a larget sample size?

Your sample size is one.  How many people do you think play this game?  Even everyone on this forum is not a large enough sample size to make even a decent estimate.  But at least it's big enough to give some insight.  You, being an individual, are not.  Your drop rate gives us exactly zero insight into the actual drop rate over all players.  Given your drop rate, we have about as much evidence to suggest the n7 drop rate is 90% as we do it's 1%.  Which is to say, we have no evidence.

[inb4lock]

thewalrusx wrote...

inb4lock wrote...

37 Character cards. (no duplicates)
92 Rare weapons.
13 Ultra rares.

~10% droprate. Check my manifest.

can you actualy prove that you've gotten "no duplicates"? I'm going to call BS on that as everyone gets duplicates. Number is probably closer to 97 character cards.

Ofcourse I cannot prove it. But i have been keeping track of character cards (and weapons) from day one. But i guess i used the wrong word. I have not gotten more than 5 cards of a single type.

Edit: i thought i had set my profile to public. And english is not my native language.

Modifié par inb4lock, 11 mai 2012 - 08:59 .

[HyruneX]

Well that's space magic.
I keep trying but I cannot get anything but character cards (8 PSP and 2 SP this evening = nothing)

So much fun.

I have all common/uncommun/rare stuff maxed and only 2 ultra rare weapons.

rng is crap, period

[wolfwarp]

inb4lock wrote...

37 Character cards. (no duplicates)
92 Rare weapons.
13 Ultra rares.

~10% droprate. Check my manifest.

Funny how one derives drop rate.

So if you check my manifest, with close to 100 rare items dropped and zero ultra rare, the drop rate of ultra rates would be ...

Zero percent?

Of course not.

Modifié par wolfwarp, 12 mai 2012 - 08:54 .

[flaresnake117]

you lucky son of a *****

[whalewhisker]

OMG GO AWAY OP

[AgentSanchez]

I smell a cash grab...

Step 1) Advertise bettter ultra rare drop rates on the premium spectre pack.

Step 2) Nerf Ultra Rare Drop rates for the new PSP

Step 3) Enjoy additional expense-free profit off of the few people out there who will continually buy these using cash points trying to max out their black widow or whatever.

I don't think I'm crazy...

[Scam_poo]

You lucky bro!

[inb4lock]

@wolfwarp

Ofcourse you cant the sample size is much to small. You need a sample of 10-100K if you want something remotely reliable. I was merely stating my drop rate in a that was more precise than "2-3 UR in 40-60 PSP"

There is a formula where you can calculate the point where the chance of not having recieved an UR reaches ~0%. I believe it is something like: dropchance/attempts*100 ( the formula is most likely incorrect, but i know there os one)

Modifié par inb4lock, 12 mai 2012 - 05:47 .

[RazRei]

T1l wrote...

>N7 drop rates have been estimated at roughly 5%
>Someone in the lucky 5% feels the need to tell everyone it's fine

Sweet thread.

Which isn't because all you're going to get is double character cards that you don't need anymore all the damn time.

[wouteros66]

[/img]http://screenshot.xfire.com/s/123405232-3.jpg[img]

[PanzerBallz]

there are correlations between successive drops, so please stop using laws of statistics or "luck" to explain this. the cause for most "statistical anomalies" you see is merely due to the not-truly-random nature of the pseudrorandom number generator (please look this up before you say i am wrong)

Modifié par PanzerBallz, 12 mai 2012 - 06:48 .

[Iwillbeback]

Stunning proof right here.
All studies should be carried out this way.

To all you whiners who didn't get any N7 drops for 30 packs, screw you because this guy got 4 in 5 packs so that means the drop rate is not too low.