Cypher_CS wrote...
frylock23 wrote...
I am trying to explain that there is no such thing as a law of averages.
We don't know what the bare probability of a TS developing in any one scenario is; the Star Child doesn't tell us.
You can roll a 6-sided die and there is one probability that you will receive any one result. You can roll the same six sided die over and over, and just because you may not have rolled one particular result in anyof your previous rolls does not increase your chances of getting that result in the next throw. You still have same base probability of getting that result as you had the first time you threw the die. The base chance never changes.
You keep saying that it only takes once. And I say that since we don't know what the base probability of the scenario is, it may very well be worth the gamble.
Yes, the probability will always be 1/6.
However, say for each of those results, there's a different pay off. A different utility.
For:
1, you get 10$
2, you get One Million Dollars (Dr' Evil voice!)
3, you get the entire combined fortunes of Bill Gates, Queen Elizabeth (well, her worth, at least, wtih all assets), and... EA. - that's like...150BN$?
4, you get all profits for you and your family and all your decendants for eternity, from all mining endevours in the Sol system. Say it's 10 Gazzillions?
5, you get pay a fine of 100$.
6, you pay a fine of all your savings, all your relative's savings and enter a program of fines from here till eternity where all your decendents will live indentured in servitude just to pay off these fines. Say... -Infinity?
Now, calculate the Expectancy of that and see if you get a positive number or a negative number.
Here's a clue - it's Negative.
P.S.
I wasn't the one talking about the Law of Averages.
And we get one reality, one chance to develop. The catalyst has artificially forced us down the path numerous times.
We flip the coin once.
So, what's the base probability? We don't know because we aren't told. If the chance is minute enough. I'd rather go with the chance of encountering singularity over the certainty that all advanced life will be wiped out every 50,000 years to prevent something that may not ever happen.
Going back to my cat, even with all his tumors and the knowledge that every year one of them may turn malignant and kill him, not one of them has done so yet. Sure, it could happen tomorrow, but it also could not happen tomorrow. At this point, it's equally likely that he dies of old age as it is that he dies of cancer.
The point of all that is that you can't know, I can't know, Star Brat can't know and neither can Shepard. Not based on what little we are given to go on.
The pessimist can say that it's inevitable that it will occur and take some kind of drastic action against a potential Bogeyman. The optimist can say that it's but one possibility out of many and without better evidence to justify drastic action there is no reason to go all in against it.





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