28 réponses à ce sujet

[Zso_Zso]

Qeylis wrote...

What is it about "not random" that you don't understand?

You realise that adding character cards that are not removed from the pool when maxed decreases the randomness of the store.  This dramatically increases the chance that you will receive a character card, maxed or not.  That is not random.  

Random:  without pattern: done, chosen, or occurring without an identifiable pattern, plan, system, or connection.

Character Cards show a pattern.  50 packs, and only one UR, everything else was Character Cards.  I challenge you to find any mathemetician who would call that random.

Here: I am a mathematician and I call that random !
You have ~9% chance to get an Ultra-rare from a PSP. For the other 91%, you get a random rare, which can be a weapon or character card -- NOT a consumable or gear! Since you have all your rare weapons at max level, they are removed from the pool, so you can only get character cards for the 91% chance.

With these probabilities and your exteremely low sample of 50, your outcome fits perfectly the random chance expectations.

[YuenglingDragon]

Qeylis wrote...
Its common sense, and um, math.  I don't care if you don't want to talk about it anymore, that won't change the facts.

Adding anything to a random draw decreases your chances of getting anything that was there before.  Adding anything to a random draw decreases your chances of getting things that there are less of.

Answer to UPD2:  If that is true, then the system is not random.  Which is what we were saying.  A not random system could be considered fixed.  A fixed system is illegal in the USA, UK and Japan (that I know of).  So I hope that isn't what you're saying.

Since you obviously didn't read my post, let me try again.

"Character cards have nothing to do with getting an Ultra-Rare. When you buy a PSP, the last three slots get rolls.3rd Slot rolls to see if Uncommon or Rare.4th Slot rolls to see if Rare or Ultra Rare5th Slot rolls to see if Rare or Ultra Rare
If you don't get UR on that initial roll, you get a rare thing. If you have all Rare weapons and Gear maxed, you get a character card. The number of rares in the pool has no effect on the drop rate of Ultra Rares. That is how it works."

The system isn't "fixed."  

[Qeylis]

Zso_Zso wrote...

Qeylis wrote...

What is it about "not random" that you don't understand?

You realise that adding character cards that are not removed from the pool when maxed decreases the randomness of the store.  This dramatically increases the chance that you will receive a character card, maxed or not.  That is not random.  

Random:  without pattern: done, chosen, or occurring without an identifiable pattern, plan, system, or connection.

Character Cards show a pattern.  50 packs, and only one UR, everything else was Character Cards.  I challenge you to find any mathemetician who would call that random.

Here: I am a mathematician and I call that random !
You have ~9% chance to get an Ultra-rare from a PSP. For the other 91%, you get a random rare, which can be a weapon or character card -- NOT a consumable or gear! Since you have all your rare weapons at max level, they are removed from the pool, so you can only get character cards for the 91% chance.

With these probabilities and your exteremely low sample of 50, your outcome fits perfectly the random chance expectations.

Then I challenge the validity of the claim that you are a mathematician.  In a random system, you would have expected to see 8 or 10 ultra rares, remember, this is a PSP with two slots for possible URs.  Instead, you saw 1.  Lets increase the sample size, shall we?  10 people complain of the same thing on a different board.  Some with a "sample size" of 30, some over 100.  All saying 1 ultra rare in their sample (one guy said 2 in 100).  

Are all these folks just unlucky?  It is extreamly unlikely that you would see 1 person complaining of 1 in 50 in a random system with a 9% chance times 2.  It is even less likely to see 10.  

9% chance means that you should see 9 ultra rares for every 100 packs in a random system.  Two slots, that is 9x2.  You should see 18 ultra rares in a random system.  Lets assume that it only applies to one (it doesn't, I've seen pictures of two in one pack), and just stick with 9 in 100.  In a random system, it is nearly impossible to only get 1 in 50, or 100.  Yet, it happens all the time.  That is not random, and the extra cards reduce the randomness.

Modifié par Qeylis, 12 juin 2012 - 05:38 .

[Qeylis]

Bump, because real maths.