George Costanza wrote...
Grimwick wrote...
George Costanza wrote...
I think it's more like...
1: Organic life must be saved.
2: Organics will always eventually create Synthetics.
3: Synthetics will eventually rebel against Organics.
4: If Synthetics are allowed to surpass Organics, when they rebel, Organics will be unable to stop them, and Organic life will be wiped out.
Solution: Cull Organic life before it gets to the point where it can create Synthetic life capable of surpassing it. To ensure 1, as long as 2 and 3 are true, 4 must not be allowed to happen.
The fallacy is made in 3 and 4 where it makes unsupported assumptions that:
1) Synthetics will always rebel.
2) Organic life will be wiped out.
Example. How likely is it I'm going to have pizza for dinner? Well, if the timeline is today, then I know it isn't happening. I'm having pasta. But there's a pizza in the freezer. Tomorrow? Well, I could, or there's also chicken in there. Saturday? I could order takeout. I could go out. I could go shopping. I might not eat. But the pizza is still in there. It's easy to say it's not definite that I'm going to have pizza again. It's not. But as the timeline increases so do the number of dinners I have, and since there's a chance that I could have pizza, as the timeline stretches the probability of me having pizza again rises.
Invalid argument. Anyone can argue that if something is possible, it will/could happen. In fact, it's a mathematical certainty that any event with a non-zero probability will occur during an infinite period of time.
This is funnily enough the exact fallacy the SC is making right here. It's called an appeal to probability.
He's stating that event x is possible/has been observed once. Then he concludes that it therefore must happen/will happen again. His entire logical argument is based around an absolute argument. This absolute argument is based upon probabilities - that's a fallacious argument.
Let me give you an example of the exact logic the SC is using:
Premise: Germany will invade Europe sometime in the future (unspecified).
Evidence: Germany has invaded Europe before.
Premise: Europe being invaded is bad.
Therefore: We stop Germany invading Europe.
Conclusion: We nuke Germany to stop them invading.
It's not a direct example but this is exactly the line of reasoning the SC is using and it is just as fallacious.
It's possible they will again. And the timeline we're operating on is from now until the end of the universe. It's a huge timeline. And because of that, the chances of it happening again, while not certain, have risen to as close to certain as can be.
See my Germany example. Should we nuke germany because they could invade us?
People point to the Geth and Quarian peace as a flaw in the logic of the Catalyst but it isn't. War isn't happening now. And it might not happen tomorrow. It might not happen for the next century. But given that it's possible, and the enormity of the timeline, it's given lifes tendancy towards conflict, it's fair to say that logically, it's entirely likely that Synthetics will rebel again.
For a start, I didn't point to them so it is ridiculous to bring them into the discussion. The SC assumes that peace is impossible and saying things such as 'the geth could start a war later' is absolutely ludicrous as a justification.
Spain could invade Portugal.
The human race could die out.
France could win the world cup.
Walmart could takeover the world.
Stating possibilites and then pointing to an enormous timescale as a justification is a logical fallacy. Again you are trying to argue that an appeal to probability is reasonable logic.
The more advanced that organic life gets, the more advanced their technology will become. But organic lifes evolution levels out. We don't need to evolve to survive anymore because the same troubles we had in the past to get to this point don't exist.
That doesn't mean we stop evolving at all. evolution cannot be stopped - by the very nature of the concept it happens whether the selection pressure is increased or decreased to near zero.
Look at us. Fundamentally, we're barely different to the humans of 100 years ago. But in that time technology has evolved greatly.
That's because evolution isn't measurable every 100 years. It requires millions (or hundred sof thousands) of years to have a noticeable effect. This is simply a poor understanding of evolution, nor is it helping your argument.
We continue to develop more advanced technology on a yearly basis. And should the time come where our creations, our AIs, are as advanced as we are, then so too will come the point where they don't need us to help them evolve. They'll be able to do it themselves. At that point, synthetic evolution gets faster as ours stays the same.
Speculation.
In that scenario, should Synthetics rebel, we wouldn't have a chance.
That's the logic of the Catalyst. Without culling Organics before they can reach the point of creating Synthetics at the same level as themselves, and assuming the likelihood that eventually those Synthetics will rebel, Organic life will be wiped out.
You're still assuming that when the synthetics rebel they will wipe out
all organics. That's an unfounded belief. There is absolutely no evidence that this is the case. Again, this reasoning also assumes that in 100% of cases they will rebel.
I'm not saying I agree with the Catalysts methods, or even that I think it's a good plot device, or that I like it. I think the ending stands out like a sore thumb and the introduction of the Catalyst was a bad decision on Biowares part, but I think to shoot down everything he says as illogical is illogical itself. He's a program created to solve a problem, and while his solution might be heartless, and frankly, abhorrent, he's reached that solution logically, I think.
It's not illogical to shoot down poor logic. Quite the opposite, in fact.