Cypher_CS wrote...
Right.
It's not just the outcome of the six sided die. It's the Winnings!
The roulette game consists of a small ball and a wheel with 38 numbered pockets around the edge. As the wheel is spun, the ball bounces around randomly until it settles down in one of the pockets. Suppose random variable X represents the (monetary) outcome of a $1 bet on a single number ("straight up" bet). If the bet wins (which happens with probability 138), the payoff is $35; otherwise the player loses the bet. The expected profit from such a bet will be

Right?
The Odds are NOT in your favor. Correct?
Now, in the case of the Prudential (from the word Prudence) argument, or the Catalyst's argument, you replace the Outcome Values with something along the lines of Minus Infinity (or something close - to mean that Synths won't create new Organics) to Probability (minute as it may be) of Synthetics wiping out all Organics and something Finite, positive (to mean that we live another day, continue as we are) to the near 100% that Synths will NOT wipe out all Organics.
What would be the Expected Value then? It would still remain in the Minus 
Okay, I understand where you are coming from. My only counter to this is that I really don't understand what all of those variables in the equation entail. X is finite, so it represents a discrete event - but these events unfold over vast periods of time. So if you are saying that there is a possibility of conflict within X amount of time vs Y amount of time vs Z amount of time, you will get wildly different results.
Anyways ... I'm kind of burned out on this discussion, so I'll end with this: I understand how people think the logic is sound - it seems more like a semantics issue to me more than anything else. The logic can make sense, but I argue that if the variables are faulty, the logic is faulty as well. Furthermore, even if the logic is 100% sound, the solution is not (which is a completely different topic altogether)
Modifié par Stornskar, 13 juillet 2012 - 02:55 .