The Twilight God wrote...
And why do you think said manson synthetics will systematically scoure the galxy planet by planet to wipe out all life? Of course you don;t have to think. You just imagine something and act on the assumption that anything you can imagine will happen. It's absurd.
Oh, cool. Well, as long as you're fine having a conversation with your self, have fun...
Stornskar wrote...
While I understand your math and the concept behind it, I agree that the exercise is more philosophical than anything else ... and possibly more complex than you suggest. For example, each cycle may have its own number of pre-condition Xs, maybe:
X1 = synthetics will evolve below the level of organics within a certain time frame
X2 = synthetics will evolve equal to the level of organics within a certain time frame
X3 = synthetics will evolve beyond the level of organics within a certain time frame
Then you have a dependent event (or events), which can change those numbers drastically and where the singularity affects only one of those cases.
Well, of course it's much more complex.
But the complexity comes from the recursion, I believe.
As for your example - the time frame given is not limited. Eventually, X3 always happens. That's the point.
Jayleia wrote...
No, I'm not saying "you have shown no evidence, THEREFORE you are wrong", I'm saying "no valid evidence has been presented at any point in time, therefore your claim is unproven". He has to prove that he's right, not just tell me he's right, and then us prove him wrong.
Otherwise we're back to Homer's Tiger Repellent Rock.
There's a difference between UNproven and DISproven.
You've used DISproven before.
UNproven, you are right about that.
But, then again, we go back to the Prudential Argument. The "What If" question.
What if there's the slightest chance....
Mind you, however, that one of the things we might use to actually disprove that prudential argument, or, rather, change the values in that equation (similar to how the Crucible does by changing variables) is use God Twilight's argument, that basically they won't be able to wipe out all organic life and, sooner or later, it will develop again.
But... If and Only If, this inability is proven beyond the shadow of any doubt, otherwise it only lowers the Probability that the wiping might still happen, which, in turn, doesn't actually change the result from the negative infinity.
Sion1138 wrote...
He didn't just believe it without any proof.
The math was the proof, or rather a good indication, it fit with everything that has long since been conclusively proven and it was the best explanation for the issue of mass that we had, so we went and set up an experiment to try and see if it sticks.
Higgs did not really pull this thing out of his butt, it fits the standard model. He didn't believe anything, he figured it could be true and CERN did the research to find out. Again, it was the best explanation we had.
Exactly!
The math supports it.
So does the math here. The Prudential math, at least.
I'll rephrase. It does not support the inevitability, only the Prudence that should be taken into consideration when deciding.
Sion1138 wrote...
If you don't have or haven't been presented sufficient evidence to even weigh the options, then just say "I don't know." (as Shepard did [smilie]http://social.bioware.com/images/forum/emoticons/grin.png[/smilie]).
The title of this thread is "Why the Catalyst was right.". It was neither right nor wrong, but the game itself, prior to the encounter, leads us to lean towards the latter, so we go with that. We've got experiences that say it's wrong and we've only got the Catalyst itself claiming the contrary. Hence, wrong.
Now as for the wager, that's a whole nother issue.
No, I'm not saying that the Catalyst is right about the assertion. I'm only saying that it is Predentially correct.
From my own personal experience and knowledge, working with AI and on AI, I tend to agree that a Technological Singularity is inevitable.
However, I do not necessarily - or at all - subscribe to any notions that such Post TS AI would be malevolent or even uncaring.
That said, it is a possibility. Or, rather, not malevolence, but some sort of use for trampling. Trampling may be the way of total annihilation or subjugation - be it on a conscious (to us) level or otherwise.
Just a Note: Already today we see increase in subjugation to technology. Google's Glass being the latest such travesty (I'm not anti tech, but I find some of those newly created tech will be a detriment to our own development and ability to adapt, further relying on technologies).
Now, if we again turn the Prudential Argument - something should be done. There's no argument here.
The question is, what?
Synthesis? Control (I Know Best)? Three Laws of Robotics? Shrike? Duracell?
I can't answer that.
To me, within the game, the presented options are only two, taking the Prudential argument into consideration.
While I am damn arrogant, I am not as arrogant as to believe that I'm beyond the corruption of power, thus, to me, Control is not the best of options.
RShara wrote...
It's not a given, because it has never happened, therefore it is an unproven assertion in the context of the game. If it were a proven assertion, then there would be no organics at all to confront him. It has never happened so he cannot say that it WILL happen nor that it is INEVITABLE.
Why do you insist on ignoring the Prudential Calculation?
"Simple" math?
RShara wrote...
NightHawkIL wrote...
No. You can have access to all the data in the world, but if you are looking at it with a preconceived purpose any result can be read entirely wrong.
In this case, the Catalyst has been around for perhaps hundreds of thousands of cycles, but only in the cycle started in ME1 has it been delayed after the initial launch. At that time, the Geth were hostile, as was Edi. If the Reapers had arrived as intended the Catalyst would have been able to sit back in his space chair and say to himself, "Looks like I was right again".
All it took was two additional years of peace between when the Reapers were supposed to arrive and when they actually did for a majority of synthetics to resolve their conflict with organics.
In all likelihood the Catalyst has only witnessed a small number of cases where synthetics have destroyed a large number of organics, and ever since then he has stepped in before it has gotten that far. Even in the cases where that struggle has occurred, he has obviously never let it play out to completion or there would be no organics in the universe today. So, it is obvious that the Catalyst, even after thousands of cycles, has absolutely no data on what would occur if organics and synthetics were permitted to battle to completion. It is a huge assumption that the conflict could never be resolved, based on thousands of studies that were shut down before they were even half way completed.
If you home brewed beer and tossed it after two days because it didn't taste like beer, you could repeat the process thousands of times and never have any idea that the same brew would be great if it was allowed to sit for the proper amount of time.
Been trying to get that through people's heads for pages now 
No, you are both wrong.
You two are, AGAIN, relying on some notion (wrong notion) that Geth or EDI are ANY SORT of evidence against the Probabilistically driven argument.
They are NOT.
The two years are NOT proof of anything. We haven't resolved THE conflict, we resolved a skirmish. Nothing more.
Given enough time, more wars will arise. How do I know that for certain? Because more wars will arise between organics themselves.
Synthetics or Organics, it doesn't frakking matter. At all.
Doesn't even matter who starts it.
Hell, if anything, that fact that it will more than likely always (or most of the time) be started by Organics is even more damning.
Why? Becase, eventually, some ultra smart AI will decided that enough is enough and the source of all Evil int he Galaxy are Organics and decide on a final solution (sorry, I'm Jewish, I'm allowed

).
The point being, the Geth conflict, or it's resolution, is not proof against the inevitability.
All it would take, is ONE such AI.
Not more. Only one. One to decide that Organics are the root of conflict.
One, post TS AI (giving it certain victory), to decided that it knows best. Just like so many other, Organics, in our history, have decided so.
Only difference was that they were not post TS. They were on par with us. So, they lost.
Imagine something so far beyond our capability deciding the same thing as tiny dimunitie Adolf....