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The Puzzle Theory [successful refuse]


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#1
Jadebaby

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This theory is born out of Shepard's marvelous speech about freedom and the right to choose our own fate.

_____________________________________

TL;DR

This theory suggests that through Single Player DLC and Multiplayer Operations we will receive another alternate ending where we are able to refuse the Catalyst and win, on our own terms.

It can also dabble into the Indoctrination Theory in that the Catalyst can be viewed as deceptive, but prefers to stand alone because the ending plays out through refuse, not destroy.

_____________________________________


SHEPARD'S SPEECH

First and for most... C'mon, admit it. This is one of Shepard's best speeches from the entire trilogy.... Yet, after delivering such an epic speech about freedom and the catalyst's retaliation of the infamously pubescent "so be it",  the game just pauses for a bit focusing on Shepard, like something is meant to happen, (right around the point the Catalyst says "the cycle continues") then the game just drops it on your head that you lost - via Liara's time capsule. The kind of epicness delivered in that speech and the Catalyst revealing his true nature doesn't fit smoothly with the fade to black loss intiating Liara's Time Capsule.


RGB BASE ENDINGS

This theory is suggesting that the original RGB endings being our only choices are temporary because we don't have all the pieces to the puzzle yet to stand on our own two feet and win the war. Shepard was so focused on stopping the Reapers that s/he went ahead and tried to defeat them before the canon timeline could catch up. The canon timeline being that of the MP operations and the extra 'intel' BioWare are delivering to us through SP DLC's. So once we have all this information and we reach the Catalyst at the end, we will be more prepared and informed to help not only reject his DEM's choices, but defy his broken logic and win on our own terms.


THE CANON TIMELINE - MULTIPLAYER

As I dabbled on in the previous section, the 'canon timeline is that of the real world focus of how ME3 is playing out. Namely, the Multiplayer timeline. 
Brianne O'Grady is the name of the writer doing Hackett's operation speeches (yes, it's an actual writer), and the Operations have been handled marvelously by MP BioWare devs and Chris Priestly (in the early days).
Hackett's speeches that Ms. O'grady writes up always talk about winning in key locations and boosting morale. What would be the point of this if it didn't have some key significance to the ME3 single-player campaign? BioWare stated as much, pre-release, that ME3 MP would have a great impact on SP, I'm guessing they didn't just mean Galactic Readiness levels...

This section also disproves people that complain they sold a game without an ending. Because we did receive "some" of them. In addition, if they had of packaged the original endings with this idea, it just flat out wouldn't work as the Single Player dlc and multiplayer timeline could be connected to the ultimate result of the ending. Furthermore, if they had of packaged the released product with this succesful refuse ending then, only then, would it have invalidated the other endings and also cheapened the Reapers strength.

CONVENTIONAL VICTORY

This theory doesn't support conventional victory, that phrase gets thrown around far too much, and in it's proper context is impossible. Due to the fact that the galaxy has adopted so much outside technology already that the term conventional is completely redundant. That being said however, this theory does support winning on our own terms, through unconventional means. After refusing the Catalyst.

A non-Crucible win, as one user put it.
 
These unconventional means will be attained through further dlc's. We have already received one piece in the Leviathans and another in Omega.


EC AND REFUSE ENDING

This is obviously how this theory started. Adding that ending greatly went against BioWare's pre-release statements of "there will be no new endings". So by adding this ending, we can also assume their next quote of "no more future content for endings" doesn't hold much credibility. Not to call them liars, because currently they probably aren't focusing on the endings, but that's not to say they never will again.
It just feels way too out of place how the game falls flat on it's face after delivering such an outstanding speech about freedom and the right to choose our own fate.

So the Refuse option could be acting as a vent for the next ending, successful Refuse.

So for example..

-|C|-|S|-|D|-
---\\---|---/---
--|Refuse|--
-----/---\\-----
---|S|-|F|---

Success and Fail, respectively.


LIARA'S TIME CAPSULE

We've already received the fail refusal in Liara's time capsule. This could be subjugated to a "low EMS Refusal" ending cut off line. Then every ending above this line is formed into a single ending (still based on EMS : Success rate) that varies in many different choices from across the three games. 

WAR ASSETS

Currently, the highest EMS you can possibly attain without the use of MP is approximately 7677. (DLC non-inclusive) Why would they let it get that high if the best possible ending is already attainable at 5000 EMS? (post EC- 3100 EMS) Also remember that future dlc's will incorporate more War Assests. From plot line assets like the Leviathans, to more planet scanning in additional systems that we are allowed to visit. So why keep throwing war assets at us if they aren't even needed? Being that you can already attain the best endings?


REFUSE AND EMS

According to sources on BSN, you need at least 2800 EMS to be eligible for the speech refusal option*. You can, however, choose to shoot to kid regardless of EMS. 

Speculating on this, it could suggest that the Liara's time capsule ending could be moved to below this EMS mark. That way, if you shoot the Catalyst, it will still result in an ending. A total loss.
Then, everything above this mark through using the speech option could be the successful refuse option.

If you have sufficient EMS but choose to just shoot the Catalyst anyway, despite having the speech option. It could still result in a total loss. As the right method hadn't been triggered to tee-up successful refuse. That way, for people that find it hard to get under 2800 EMS, can still receive a 'total loss' if they wish.

* - It has been brought to my attention that this may be incorrect. It was of the understanding that you needed Synthesis to achieve the refusal option through dialog but that doesn't seem to be the case. I think the 2800 EMS was pre-EC. So it might now be half of that. If anyone has found any solid evidence on this please let me know. Thank you.

MULTIPLAYER SECTION

Multiplayer Telemetry Data

Data 1
Nothing worth noting here, other than the staggering amount of time people had spent on Multiplayer in just 11 days.

Data 2
If anyone has any more information on the origins of this Telemetry Data, can you please post it? I have no other information other than this screen.

Data 3
Notice how it says "Since the Reaper invasion of Earth dlc pack"?
Is this meant to suggest that when the Earth dlc was released, that is when the Reapers first invaded Earth in the canon SP timeline?

Let's have a closer look then......

Multiplayer DLC

Multiplayer DLC 1 - Resurgence
Recruits from across the galaxy defect to Alliance in order to receive presitigious N7 Spec-Ops training. Most notable recruits are Batarian troopers, Geth troopers and an Asari Justicar.

Multiplayer DLC 2 - Rebellion
More recruits from across the galaxy defect to Alliance to gain N7 Spec-Ops training. Most notable recruits this time are Vorcha troopers and the infamous Phoenix troopers; who defected from Cerberus after The Illusive Man started using Indoctrination to control his troops (sometime between Mass Effect: Retribution and the events of Mass Effect 3 perhaps?). Also a new operation; retrieval (implying that there's new information out there needing retrieval to keep tabs on our enemies).

Multiplayer DLC 3 - Earth
The first time we are allowed to step on Earth's soil to battle enemies in the Reaper War. Most notable recruits are special N7 operatives that could have been stationed on Earth before the war broke out. Other new features include a new difficulty (implying that the Reaper War is going to be more difficult than any battle we've previously had) and a new operation; Escort Drone (implying we must start reconnaissance missions to prevent the Reapers from advancing and to predict their next moves to keep ahead strategically).

Further speculation into the maps is the order in which they are presented; Rio, Vancouver, London. "RVL" for short, this could signify a "ReVeaL", in that this Earth dlc is revealing the MP/canon timeline for Mass Effect 3.

Earth MP trailer
To me, this trailer is more than just a trailer. It's a piece of canon, a part of the story that's actually happening at the time the Earth dlc was released.

"The Reapers hit without warning, Earth took the brunt of the attack. A few of us remain behind, to protect and defend. To keep what's left of Earth free, or die trying.....
Today, each of you must become more than a soldier, and until the fleets return, you are the last line of defense.
The Earth is ours, and if they want it. They'll have to go through us to get it."
- Admiral Anderson.

This speech pretty much confirms the MP/canon timeline. Anderson's "Until the fleets return" line seems to indicate that we have to hold out in the Multiplayer operations until Shepard can return with the galaxy's united fleets. Not in the individual gamer's playthrough, but in the MP/canon timeline established through MP and SP dlc and MP operations.

Multiplayer DLC 4 - Retaliation
This DLC introduced the Collectors to the fight. Admittedly other than that there isn't much else to say about this dlc, it added a new enemy, new maps and hazard maps also. I think everyone is just waiting for the Collectors to make their mark on the SP campaign now.



MULTIPLAYER OPERATIONS
For the purpose of creating room, click on the Operation title for a view of the Hacket's speeches.

Operation - Overwatch:
This could very well be the setup of the Leviathan DLC itself. It states at the start of the Leviathan trailer that Admiral Hackett found out about Leviathan through his intel. Now we know there's that Bryson woman, which is pretty much the Amanda Kenson of Leviathan it seems. But the intel Hackett needed to find Bryson could have come from the MP operations. This would be a great way to incorporate the MP into the SP and give the MP meaning. This little epilogue to the operation just struck a chord with me, particularly in the parallels to what BioWare have been facing in the media themselves lately.

Operation - Olympus
While not giving us as much suspect information as Operation Overwatch, it has shown us the significance, once again, of the Multiplayer Timeline. "Netting extremely valuable intel from Reaper memory databases" and that this intel "could prove invaluable."
Hackett then goes on to say that if theye can decipher the information they may start to be able to predict the Reapers battle strategies, improving their chances on Earth and throughout the galaxy. Now while this may not necessarily mean they'll stop the Citadel being moved (lulz). This is rather significant intel, and a great win for all those competing in the MP operations. Lastly, he discusses the Reapers being beyond our understanding as "not true" and that we have come one step closer to knocking them off their pedestals.
Personally, this gives me hope for a "win" ending in the future.

Operation - Alloy
Again, further indication that the MP timeline is following some sort of pattern to the SP.

"We’ve been receiving a number of strange reports that are inconsistent with our knowledge of Reaper ground troop movement. At this point, intel is vague at best. Rest assured we are pursuing the matter." - Admiral Steven Hackett.

Could this be when Reaper movements start to diverge on London? After all, Anderson does mention London well before the Reapers sent the beam there. Or could this have been the Reaper troops moving in on the Leviathans? Being inconsistent because the Leviathans are a big variable in the war?

Operation - Vigilance
 "Our troops were forced to salvage what they could before withdrawing from the battlefield. While we will put the salvaged materials to good use, we’ve learned very little about the initial attacks or how we might counter similar attacks in the future."

My question with this is, if the MP operations are just insentive to get people to play MP and wont have an impact on SP down the line. Why not just make the failed operations a total loss? Why are we still learning new information to help us in the war, even when we fail the operations? Because every little bit counts, why does every little bit count? Because it will have an affect?

"The Reapers have a plan. We must be ready for anything."

The Reapers have a plan? Could this be them about to take the Citadel? Could the crucible, in itself, be the Reaper's plan? Wait and see I guess, but from what we saw in the SP campaign, apart from taking the Citadel. The Reapers didn't seem to have any plans other than to overwhelm the galaxy by the number. And that plan we already knew about.

Operation - Patriot
Cerberus orientated operation? Setting us up for Omega?

Operation - Alamo
This operation had been speculated on quite a bit and thought it was worth mentioning here. It could very well be evidence of where the MP timeline is at, in that it took place on Menae and was played out as a "takeback" style mission. No extraction being required led to the belief that these troops were staying in place, standing their ground.
The parallels a fairly similiar to the Miracle at Palaven. In which they used diversion tactics on Menae to hit back and secure parts of Palaven. Which is really fitting considering the Collectors were introduced a month or two prior to this operation and the Miracle at Palaven mentions Collector seeker swarms. 

This operation - in it's name - has also been compared to the story of the Alamo in America. In which the fort was taken by the Mexicans (Palaven being taken), but then eventually the American reclaimed their rightful land (galaxy fighting back to retake Palaven and Menae).
Although, this operation could also be referring to a different operation Alamo that happened around that time, which carries almost opposite symbolism.

Edit 3/02/2013: For a much better summary of this comparison, in all of it's parallels, please see this wonderful analysis by forum member BringBackNihlus.

Operation - Prophecy
Operation Prophecy - before stating anything else - gives credence to the previous operation that the names are carefully picked and relate to something going on either IRL or things that can be related IRL to the story (ie: Alamo and Palaven symbolism).

Now, there isn't much else to say about this operation other than the end of the world talk could share a parallel with the end of Mass Effect 3, and how people cannot believe it's the end of the end.



DEVELOPMENT STANDPOINT

This basically helps to add to why they would wait to bring out the "win" ending through dlc. Because this is Shepard's last story. That would mean a lot more to the creators who have spent countless months and years putting all their hard work into this series, so I feel it will be hard for them to say goodbye as well.
Therefore, that's why if they leave the "win" ending until the last piece of dlc. Then that dlc will act as their goodbye to the series, giving proper closure to all the characters we've come to love across the trilogy. Shepard included. However, this will probably be based on sales so they know that their fans want it too. But I don't think they have to worry about that, almost a year later and people still go on about it, myself included (obviously).


EVIDENCE

Jessie Houston - Comicon 2011
I will put down my analysis here, if you have any issues or question regarding this video, feel free to drop a post. I'd recommend watching the video though, it's rather a good interview.

".... I [can/can't] tell you that the end of the game will be on the disc. But within that context, given the terms there's a bit of a different, you know the way that we're structuring the story is pretty different. So it will make a good sense why the DLC plugs in to where it does."

Firstly, I know it's an old interview and that plans may have changed, however he seems pretty stressed when he talks about "just getting the game finished" so I doubt they were making any heavy plot changes at that stage in development.

The important part comes afterwards when he says "within that context," talking about the endings and structuring the story differently... And so far, the only dlc to have impacted the endings is Leviathan. But will it be the last?

From Ashes
Day 1 DLC, what more needs to be said. They've already slated this game with dlc that gave great insight and significance to the plot. Sure, people complained, but people love Javik so it's okay. Just like they will love this ending should it come to fruition, so then that would be okay also. Combine this with all other topics in this thread and get a really genius way of sctructuring the finale of the Reaper war.
This angst and pain everyone who hates the endings feels right now. That's part of the battle, and another way of BioWare trying to put you in Shepard's shoes and feel how they may or may not feel.
Leviathan has also added significance and insight into the overarching plot.

Leviathan
An additional piece of dlc that added crucial information and insight into the Catalyst and Reaper origins, while also giving us a very valuable War Asset. All-in-all, a pretty significant part to the plot. Obtained through dlc mind you. It has been said by a BioWare employee that maybe the crucical information and context is because of how people felt about the endings. If that were the case however, the 400 War Assets in the Leviathans aid would not be necessary. Besides, we knew Leviathan was planned before release, so how could they know how the endings would be received before people played them?

Omega
Disclaimer: Omega dlc is hard to speculate on since I haven't personally played it, if anyone has played it an is willing and able to write up a report on it with a Puzzle Theory eye. I will add it here. Thanks.

From what I have heard, Omega was a lengthy shoot-em up dlc, which by the end of it. You come out with more fighting War Assets in troops and mercs from Aria, but you also come out with resources. Resources in Eezo. Now, if I remember correctly, Leviathans use Eezo to travel, correct?

See where I'm going with this?


BANNERS

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

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PERSONAL

If this theory holds weight, the endings could end up truly being diverse and spectacular. If not, then I think, only then, can we judge Mass Effect 3. Only then, can we have true closure on how to feel about it.

__________________________________________

FAQ
Puzzle Theory FAQ

REFERENCES
Refusal (through dialogue) requires at least 2800 EMS

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
http://www.gamesrada...-mass-effect-3/


CONTRIBUTIONS LIST:


- MegaSovereign (Refusal and EMS)
- Conniving_Eagle (multiplayer timline)
- ShepnTali (MP operation weekends)
- V3paR (Banner expert)
- Whole Particle (Banner expert)
- JaconSic (Banner expert)
- BansheeOwnage (MP Earth Expert) :)
- IsaacShep (Refusal and EMS helper)
- Kenny4753 (Moral support)
- Ignis Mors (Moral Support)
- StayFrosty05 (Moral Support)
- AresKeith (Moral Support)
- BringBackNihlus (operation specialist)

BOTTOM LINE - SPECULATION IS FRUITLESS IF THERE IS NOTHING TO SPECULATE FOR...

****I like to keep things fairly short, so if anyone has anything they'd like to add to this theory, whether from IT or not, feel free to add. Also, if you have any questions, please don't hesitate to ask, thank you.****

Сообщение изменено: Jade8aby88, 03 Февраль 2013 - 11:50 .


#2
The Angry One

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I think that if they actually have the gall to make us pay for the ending we should've had all along, the true ****storm has yet to begin.

#3
2Shepards

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Already have my suspicions. I call it the "Breadcrumb Theory"

#4
Baronesa

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The Angry One wrote...

I think that if they actually have the gall to make us pay for the ending we should've had all along, the true ****storm has yet to begin.


Brace yourself...

#5
Baronesa

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It is an interesting explanation, Jade...

It could go that way, but I honestly doubt it.

Anyway, any SP DLC that does not affect the outcome of the game is meaningless.

#6
flanny

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The Angry One wrote...

I think that if they actually have the gall to make us pay for the ending we should've had all along, the true ****storm has yet to begin.


this, 'so you want a good ending do you? well it'll cost you'

that said this is EA, i wouldn't be surprised

#7
krasnoarmeets

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2Shepards wrote...

Already have my suspicions. I call it the "Breadcrumb Theory"


Lol. That would imply there was some thought put into the ending. Although with Electronic Farts at the helm everything is bound to lead to 'how can we squeeze more money out of these idiots'?

#8
Jadebaby

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The Angry One wrote...

I think that if they actually have the gall to make us pay for the ending we should've had all along, the true ****storm has yet to begin.


And if it's free?

I mean they would have made millions of the game's release & From Ashes DLC. But they would have also made and are still making money off those MP micro-transaction. It would add up to fair sum.

#9
flanny

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krasnoarmeets wrote...

2Shepards wrote...

Already have my suspicions. I call it the "Breadcrumb Theory"


Lol. That would imply there was some thought put into the ending. Although with Electronic Farts at the helm everything is bound to lead to 'how can we squeeze more money out of these idiots'?


Yeah, i expect that DA3 will come out but will only be given the beginning the rest is dlc

#10
The Angry One

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Jade8aby88 wrote...

The Angry One wrote...

I think that if they actually have the gall to make us pay for the ending we should've had all along, the true ****storm has yet to begin.


And if it's free?

I mean they would have made millions of the game's release & From Ashes DLC. But they would have also made and are still making money off those MP micro-transaction. It would add up to fair sum.


Ha. If This DLC is free then I'll come here and say Mac Walters is a writing god.

#11
flanny

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Jade8aby88 wrote...

The Angry One wrote...

I think that if they actually have the gall to make us pay for the ending we should've had all along, the true ****storm has yet to begin.


And if it's free?

I mean they would have made millions of the game's release & From Ashes DLC. But they would have also made and are still making money off those MP micro-transaction. It would add up to fair sum.


If it's free i'll completely forgive them, though EA want money so it won't happen, and the writers need to protect their 'art' so won't change the ending 

#12
Hendrik.III

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Funny, I was thinking about this yesterday. That with all the DLC coming, they might at some point decide - ah, what the heck - give 'm that ending.

Point is that they would ultimately sell far more DLC if they would state that such was the future plan, so all us sceptical folk would gladly buy all SP contect DLC until we get what we'd like so much. So... nah. I don't think they'll ever do that - the resources are probably already used on other projects.

#13
Inxentas

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BW has stated that the EC is the first and only post-ending DLC. While I like the theory presented here, I don't think it's realitic to hope for more ending DLC at all.

#14
The Angry One

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EA reaction to second DLC being released for free:

www.youtube.com/watch

#15
D24O

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I'd rather they made Dinosaur DLC.

#16
Lost Mercenary

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The Angry One wrote...

I think that if they actually have the gall to make us pay for the ending we should've had all along, the true ****storm has yet to begin.


Time to start investing in Umbrellas me thinks.

#17
elegolas1

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The Angry One wrote...

EA reaction to second DLC being released for free:

www.youtube.com/watch


+1

#18
wright1978

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no that's deluded.

There's not going to be a high ems conventional clean victory as it would both completely undermine the existing endings as well the whole narrative of ME3(build the crucible because conventional victory is impossible). Endings are passable now even if the crucible/catalyst plot is weak.

#19
flanny

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The Angry One wrote...

EA reaction to second DLC being released for free:

www.youtube.com/watch


more like @ 8:00 with biowares staff
 

Сообщение изменено: flanny, 13 Июль 2012 - 12:48 .


#20
flanny

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wright1978 wrote...

no that's deluded.

There's not going to be a high ems conventional clean victory as it would both completely undermine the existing endings as well the whole narrative of ME3(build the crucible because conventional victory is impossible). Endings are passable now even if the crucible/catalyst plot is weak.


how much more undermined can it get?

#21
wright1978

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flanny wrote...

wright1978 wrote...

no that's deluded.

There's not going to be a high ems conventional clean victory as it would both completely undermine the existing endings as well the whole narrative of ME3(build the crucible because conventional victory is impossible). Endings are passable now even if the crucible/catalyst plot is weak.


how much more undermined can it get?



Not sure what you mean? The current endings fit ME3's narrative if they are not what i wanted the game to be in an ideal world.
Conventional fight = defeat
Crucible as weapon: Win with a price attached
Crucible as Control: Win with a price attached
Crucible as genetic rewriter: Win with a price attached

#22
Ironhandjustice

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The Angry One wrote...

Jade8aby88 wrote...

The Angry One wrote...

I think that if they actually have the gall to make us pay for the ending we should've had all along, the true ****storm has yet to begin.


And if it's free?

I mean they would have made millions of the game's release & From Ashes DLC. But they would have also made and are still making money off those MP micro-transaction. It would add up to fair sum.


Ha. If This DLC is free then I'll come here and say Mac Walters is a writing god.


CHALLENGE ACCEPTED

:whistle:

#23
Jadebaby

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The Angry One wrote...

EA reaction to second DLC being released for free:

www.youtube.com/watch


Especially love what he says after choking on his tongue "this would go along way to cleaning up my public image."

I'd still pay gladly even if it weren't the case. For ME3 to truly get the ending it deserves, definitely.

#24
Cronotis

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DLC the true ending a good idea? No it isn't.

#25
Jadebaby

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wright1978 wrote...

no that's deluded.

There's not going to be a high ems conventional clean victory as it would both completely undermine the existing endings as well the whole narrative of ME3(build the crucible because conventional victory is impossible). Endings are passable now even if the crucible/catalyst plot is weak.


It wouldn't be a "conventional" victory because it's wouldn't be specifically us vs them. We'd be getting valuable insight/aid from Leviathan.. Or other dlc related.