467 réponses à ce sujet

[AlanC9]

Khajiit Jzargo wrote..

There's many indication that you might have puny chance {1-2} percent chance that you can defeat the Reapers. 

Really? Like what?

[Khajiit Jzargo]

AlanC9 wrote...

Khajiit Jzargo wrote..

There's many indication that you might have puny chance {1-2} percent chance that you can defeat the Reapers. 

Really? Like what?

Codex-Reaper vulnerabillities- http://masseffect.wi...Vulnerabilities

" the Reapers have experienced casualties in the battles across the galaxy. This indicates that, theoretically, with the right intelligence, weapons, and strategy, the Reapers could be defeated."

"It is possible for a single cruiser or many fighters to disable or demolish a destroyer if they can get within range"

Read the rest on the link

Also, Thanix cannons, destroying relays, etc.

[AlanC9]

That indicates that individual reapers can be destroyed. How do you go from that to being able to win the war? The Japanese were able to sink individual US ships. This didn't mean they could defeat the US Navy in 1945.

[The Eruptionist]

flanny wrote...

The Eruptionist wrote...

But you trusted the Illusive Man in ME2 did you not? He was part of an organization that was established as violent and sadistic. TIM even proves to you that he has no problems with lying to you when he sends you to the 'disabled Collector vessel'. TIM then sends Shepard on a suicide mission when there are numerous and legitimate reasons not to believe a word he is saying. Does this sound familiar at all?

Shepard trusted TIM as a form of faith based on necessity. Shepard must trust the Catalyst as a form of faith also based on necessity. If you don't think you can trust a word the Catalyst says then you should have stopped playing ME2 within the first 10 minutes. 

what are talking about? comparing TIM to the catalyst is ridiculous, in ME2 you know TIM a morally grey character willing to do what ever it takes to stop the reapers, very relatable to my own shepard, also there is the fact he you know brought you back to life and gave you a ship. the catalyst on the other hand admitted to being the reaper overlord, the guy responsible for the death of more people then we can imagine, including shepards friends and himself. Also you get the option to question TIM

 
"TIM a morally grey character willing to do what ever it takes to stop the reapers"

The only reason you know this is because TIM or his Cerberus operatives told you so. For all you know at the time he could be lying. The situation is the same. When you first meet TIM you have literally no idea what his true intentions are other than what he tells you. All you know is that he is the leader or Cerberus - an extremist organisation that is potentially very untrustworthy. TIM did bring Shepard back from the dead but how do you even know that you're actually Shepard? (these doubts are expressed in ME3). He could have brought you back to simply use you and then discard you, which is exactly what he did.

"the catalyst on the other hand admitted to being the reaper overlord, the guy responsible for the death of more people then we can imagine"

How many people has TIM been responsible for killing? I'm not putting him on par with the Catalyst as far as war crimes are concerned but he is not saint. TIM also admitted to being the Cerberus 'overlord' so to speak.

"Also you get the option to question TIM" 

Only to the same extent that you get to question the Catalyst. TIM tells you what he needs you to know. As far as Shepard knows, TIM could have been lying through his teeth for the entire game (and he was at certain points).

Modifié par The Eruptionist, 31 juillet 2012 - 05:31 .

[iamweaver]

Khajiit Jzargo wrote...

AlanC9 wrote...

Khajiit Jzargo wrote..

There's many indication that you might have puny chance {1-2} percent chance that you can defeat the Reapers. 

Really? Like what?

Codex-Reaper vulnerabillities- http://masseffect.wi...Vulnerabilities

" the Reapers have experienced casualties in the battles across the galaxy. This indicates that, theoretically, with the right intelligence, weapons, and strategy, the Reapers could be defeated."

"It is possible for a single cruiser or many fighters to disable or demolish a destroyer if they can get within range"

Read the rest on the link

Also, Thanix cannons, destroying relays, etc.

But with what ships?

The entire fleet is here at Earth, mousetrapped by a superior Reaper force.  Remember, that was the plan - amass a force that would attract a Reaper fleet large enough to destroy it, so that the Catalyst could zap them all at once.  That plan was modified when the Reaper fleet descended on Earth.  But the Reaper fleet here on Earth appears to be superior to the one that Hackett planned for; remember that when he learns of the size of the Reaper fleet, tells you that the plan is more desperate than ever.

I will freely admit that in the ME universe. it might be possible to "warp out" at any time, and that there actually is no way to fight a fleet if you don't want to.  This seems highly unlikely, for two  reasons.   FIrst,  that the trap wouldn't be a trap if that were so, so the entire plan would be useless.  Second, whenever you are forced to play the stupid minigame, you have to make it to a certian distance from the stellar mass to engage FTL

So this means that the galaxy won't have much of a fleet by the time that the Reapers are finished with them.

That, and there is no longer any industrial base to rebuild, repair and refuel ships; every industrial center is completely overrun by Reapers with the exception of Palaven, which is fighting a losing battle (Tuchanka doesn't count - it doesn't have an interstellar industrial base - or much of any base, really).  The only "safe" spot at the moment is wherever the Crucible was built.  But Hackett has told you that once Cerberus is attacked, the Reapers soon will figure out where the fleets have been hiding and the Crucible is, and so the plan must move forward quickly.

[Khajiit Jzargo]

iamweaver wrote...

Khajiit Jzargo wrote...

AlanC9 wrote...

Khajiit Jzargo wrote..

There's many indication that you might have puny chance {1-2} percent chance that you can defeat the Reapers. 

Really? Like what?

Codex-Reaper vulnerabillities- http://masseffect.wi...Vulnerabilities

" the Reapers have experienced casualties in the battles across the galaxy. This indicates that, theoretically, with the right intelligence, weapons, and strategy, the Reapers could be defeated."

"It is possible for a single cruiser or many fighters to disable or demolish a destroyer if they can get within range"

Read the rest on the link

Also, Thanix cannons, destroying relays, etc.

But with what ships?

The entire fleet is here at Earth, mousetrapped by a superior Reaper force.  Remember, that was the plan - amass a force that would attract a Reaper fleet large enough to destroy it, so that the Catalyst could zap them all at once.  That plan was modified when the Reaper fleet descended on Earth.  But the Reaper fleet here on Earth appears to be superior to the one that Hackett planned for; remember that when he learns of the size of the Reaper fleet, tells you that the plan is more desperate than ever.

I will freely admit that in the ME universe. it might be possible to "warp out" at any time, and that there actually is no way to fight a fleet if you don't want to.  This seems highly unlikely, for two  reasons.   FIrst,  that the trap wouldn't be a trap if that were so, so the entire plan would be useless.  Second, whenever you are forced to play the stupid minigame, you have to make it to a certian distance from the stellar mass to engage FTL

So this means that the galaxy won't have much of a fleet by the time that the Reapers are finished with them.

That, and there is no longer any industrial base to rebuild, repair and refuel ships; every industrial center is completely overrun by Reapers with the exception of Palaven, which is fighting a losing battle (Tuchanka doesn't count - it doesn't have an interstellar industrial base - or much of any base, really).  The only "safe" spot at the moment is wherever the Crucible was built.  But Hackett has told you that once Cerberus is attacked, the Reapers soon will figure out where the fleets have been hiding and the Crucible is, and so the plan must move forward quickly.

I agree with a lot you said. But I still think theres even a puny chance of survival, that's the point I was trying to get across, whether it would be better to choose another option is irrevelant to the topic.

[Teneroth]

iamweaver wrote...

But with what ships?

The entire fleet is here at Earth, mousetrapped by a superior Reaper force.  Remember, that was the plan - amass a force that would attract a Reaper fleet large enough to destroy it, so that the Catalyst could zap them all at once.  That plan was modified when the Reaper fleet descended on Earth.  But the Reaper fleet here on Earth appears to be superior to the one that Hackett planned for; remember that when he learns of the size of the Reaper fleet, tells you that the plan is more desperate than ever.

I will freely admit that in the ME universe. it might be possible to "warp out" at any time, and that there actually is no way to fight a fleet if you don't want to.  This seems highly unlikely, for two  reasons.   FIrst,  that the trap wouldn't be a trap if that were so, so the entire plan would be useless.  Second, whenever you are forced to play the stupid minigame, you have to make it to a certian distance from the stellar mass to engage FTL

So this means that the galaxy won't have much of a fleet by the time that the Reapers are finished with them.

That, and there is no longer any industrial base to rebuild, repair and refuel ships; every industrial center is completely overrun by Reapers with the exception of Palaven, which is fighting a losing battle (Tuchanka doesn't count - it doesn't have an interstellar industrial base - or much of any base, really).  The only "safe" spot at the moment is wherever the Crucible was built.  But Hackett has told you that once Cerberus is attacked, the Reapers soon will figure out where the fleets have been hiding and the Crucible is, and so the plan must move forward quickly.

With what ships? Well.... lets go back to ME1.

Vigil: Wiping out a civiliaztion is a long, slow process. Years turned into decades.... It was over a century before reaper forces retreated through the citidel relay.

So we have the relays active still and, therefore, can connect supply lines from mining base, to population center to shipyard. With the relays active it would take far longer for the reapers to clean out the galaxy then a single century. But, lets say we have ~100 years of production before we start approaching 'extinction level' population totals. Considering how far and wide every race is spread and the ease with which they can move given the relays I don't think this is unreasonable.

Now, how long does it take to build a dozen fighters? A cruiser? A dreadnought? Lets take the annual production values of WWII era allies and apply it to the entire galaxy.

Over the course of 6 years (1939-1945) the allies produced: 13 battleships, 82 cruisers, 814 destroyers, 1,120 convoy escort ships, 155 aircraft carriers, and close to half a million aircraft. 

So, averaging these numbers (not technically accurate, as over half of everything there was produced in the last 2 years by america) leaves us with 2 battleships, 14 cruisers, 136 destroyers, 187 convoy escorts, 26 carriers and nearly 100,000 aircraft PER YEAR. As battleships were basically dreadnoughts lets just equate those two and assume those are the production figures for an ENTIRE galaxy over the course of 100 years.

that leaves us with:
200 dreadnoughts
1,400 cruisers
13,600 destroyers
18,700 convoy escorts
2,600 Carriers
10,000,000 fighters

I think that is a force capable of taking on the reapers.

and before you go on about supply lines and reapers hitting ship yards, remember. These were the production figures from a few countries, of a single planet. Most of the infastructure for these contruction yards had to be built, mainly in america, but the point stands. Now, during this same time frame, 100 years, the reapers MIGHT produce a single capitol ship and a couple of destroyers. If the relays were shut down they would stand a chance. But with the relays active they are activly fighting the combined production capabilities of an entier GALAXY. Trillons of people, hundreds of worlds. 

[iamweaver]

Teneroth wrote...

iamweaver wrote...

But with what ships?

The entire fleet is here at Earth, mousetrapped by a superior Reaper force.  Remember, that was the plan - amass a force that would attract a Reaper fleet large enough to destroy it, so that the Catalyst could zap them all at once.  That plan was modified when the Reaper fleet descended on Earth.  But the Reaper fleet here on Earth appears to be superior to the one that Hackett planned for; remember that when he learns of the size of the Reaper fleet, tells you that the plan is more desperate than ever.

I will freely admit that in the ME universe. it might be possible to "warp out" at any time, and that there actually is no way to fight a fleet if you don't want to.  This seems highly unlikely, for two  reasons.   FIrst,  that the trap wouldn't be a trap if that were so, so the entire plan would be useless.  Second, whenever you are forced to play the stupid minigame, you have to make it to a certian distance from the stellar mass to engage FTL

So this means that the galaxy won't have much of a fleet by the time that the Reapers are finished with them.

That, and there is no longer any industrial base to rebuild, repair and refuel ships; every industrial center is completely overrun by Reapers with the exception of Palaven, which is fighting a losing battle (Tuchanka doesn't count - it doesn't have an interstellar industrial base - or much of any base, really).  The only "safe" spot at the moment is wherever the Crucible was built.  But Hackett has told you that once Cerberus is attacked, the Reapers soon will figure out where the fleets have been hiding and the Crucible is, and so the plan must move forward quickly.

With what ships? Well.... lets go back to ME1.

Vigil: Wiping out a civiliaztion is a long, slow process. Years turned into decades.... It was over a century before reaper forces retreated through the citidel relay.

So we have the relays active still and, therefore, can connect supply lines from mining base, to population center to shipyard. With the relays active it would take far longer for the reapers to clean out the galaxy then a single century. But, lets say we have ~100 years of production before we start approaching 'extinction level' population totals. Considering how far and wide every race is spread and the ease with which they can move given the relays I don't think this is unreasonable.

Now, how long does it take to build a dozen fighters? A cruiser? A dreadnought? Lets take the annual production values of WWII era allies and apply it to the entire galaxy.

Over the course of 6 years (1939-1945) the allies produced: 13 battleships, 82 cruisers, 814 destroyers, 1,120 convoy escort ships, 155 aircraft carriers, and close to half a million aircraft. 

So, averaging these numbers (not technically accurate, as over half of everything there was produced in the last 2 years by america) leaves us with 2 battleships, 14 cruisers, 136 destroyers, 187 convoy escorts, 26 carriers and nearly 100,000 aircraft PER YEAR. As battleships were basically dreadnoughts lets just equate those two and assume those are the production figures for an ENTIRE galaxy over the course of 100 years.

that leaves us with:
200 dreadnoughts
1,400 cruisers
13,600 destroyers
18,700 convoy escorts
2,600 Carriers
10,000,000 fighters

I think that is a force capable of taking on the reapers.

and before you go on about supply lines and reapers hitting ship yards, remember. These were the production figures from a few countries, of a single planet. Most of the infastructure for these contruction yards had to be built, mainly in america, but the point stands. Now, during this same time frame, 100 years, the reapers MIGHT produce a single capitol ship and a couple of destroyers. If the relays were shut down they would stand a chance. But with the relays active they are activly fighting the combined production capabilities of an entier GALAXY. Trillons of people, hundreds of worlds. 

The reason I said, "with what force?" is because those forces are currently around Earth, being decimated by a superior Reaper fleet.  That was the plan, and it's in motion right now.  Hackett, before the start of this battle, has alreadyt warned you that he's not sure if the fleet will even be enough to protect the Crucible before activation.  Yes, I know that's what he always says, it builds dramatic tension - but we have to assume that whatever the size of our fleet, in game, the reaper fleet is not only larger (which was actually hoped for in the original plan), but much larger.

And if we are doing back-of-the-envelope calculations, try figuring out how many Capital-class Reapers would be created out of 20,000 cycles, even assuming that 50% of those Reapers have been destroyed at some point (or that a cycle didn't have a species "worthy" of becoming one).  Then try guessing how many destroyers might have been created from lesser races.  Its a whole bunch.

[AlanC9]

That analysis is badly confused. The Reapers don't have to take as long as they historically have to wipe out organic civilization. For instance, processing on Earth will take something like a decade, according to the Codex estimate. But if all they want to do is wreck the planet, they could do that in.... an hour? A day at most.

Modifié par AlanC9, 31 juillet 2012 - 06:28 .

[Teneroth]

iamweaver wrote...

The reason I said, "with what force?" is because those forces are currently around Earth, being decimated by a superior Reaper fleet.  That was the plan, and it's in motion right now.  Hackett, before the start of this battle, has alreadyt warned you that he's not sure if the fleet will even be enough to protect the Crucible before activation.  Yes, I know that's what he always says, it builds dramatic tension - but we have to assume that whatever the size of our fleet, in game, the reaper fleet is not only larger (which was actually hoped for in the original plan), but much larger.

And if we are doing back-of-the-envelope calculations, try figuring out how many Capital-class Reapers would be created out of 20,000 cycles, even assuming that 50% of those Reapers have been destroyed at some point (or that a cycle didn't have a species "worthy" of becoming one).  Then try guessing how many destroyers might have been created from lesser races.  Its a whole bunch.

Yes, but the reapers can't be everywhere at once, they are the invading force, and they appear to be stretched thin as it was. Most of their forces were attacking 3 worlds: Palavan, Earth, and Thessia. Rannock and Tchanca only warented a single destroyer each. 

So ya, lets assume they have 10,000 capitol ships. Lets also assume that each of the 3 major worlds I mentioned get 2,000 reaper caps. That leaves a force of 4,000 patroling the galaxy. Each quadrent of the galaxy, according to the map anyways, contains 10-20 clusters, each of which have a relay. that averages out to a total of 60 relay clusters. Which means each relay can have only ~67 reaper caps in it's general area. Each cluster probably has a couple dozen to close to a hundred systems. Lets assume 30 systems per relay, on the low side, means about 2 reaper caps per system. 

Lets take 1 year of production and put it against a single systems worth of reapers. Two caps and a few destroyers.

The alliance forces would blow them to peices. not with out losses granted, but we can replace our losses. THE REAPERS CAN'T. We blow up a couple reapers here, a few there, asymetric warfare. By the time they gather a large enough force to stop the alliance forces we're already gone. It's defeat in detail.

And I'm not even going into technological advance. In 5 years we went from 'unable to scratch their sheilds' to '4 dreads can reliably take out a reaper' Where do you think we'll be in another 5? 10? 20? And active war will only accelerate that techological advance. By the end of 100 years our dreads might be managing to take on 4 reapers at the same time and reliably come out on top!

[AlanC9]

Teneroth wrote...
Lets take 1 year of production and put it against a single systems worth of reapers. Two caps and a few destroyers.

The alliance forces would blow them to peices. not with out losses granted, but we can replace our losses. THE REAPERS CAN'T. We blow up a couple reapers here, a few there, asymetric warfare. By the time they gather a large enough force to stop the alliance forces we're already gone. It's defeat in detail.

Assuming the Reapers didn't run. Meanwhile, what have the Reapers done in every other system while you're concentrating  your year's production in one place?

And I'm not even going into technological advance. In 5 years we went from 'unable to scratch their sheilds' to '4 dreads can reliably take out a reaper' Where do you think we'll be in another 5? 10? 20? And active war will only accelerate that techological advance. By the end of 100 years our dreads might be managing to take on 4 reapers at the same time and reliably come out on top!

How come the organics can develop better techs but the Reapers can't?

[Teneroth]

AlanC9 wrote...

Teneroth wrote...
Lets take 1 year of production and put it against a single systems worth of reapers. Two caps and a few destroyers.

The alliance forces would blow them to peices. not with out losses granted, but we can replace our losses. THE REAPERS CAN'T. We blow up a couple reapers here, a few there, asymetric warfare. By the time they gather a large enough force to stop the alliance forces we're already gone. It's defeat in detail.

Assuming the Reapers didn't run. Meanwhile, what have the Reapers done in every other system while you're concentrating  your year's production in one place?

little to nothing, busy gathering up bodies to be processed, trying, and failing, to stomp out conflict on a handful of planets.

And I'm not even going into technological advance. In 5 years we went from 'unable to scratch their sheilds' to '4 dreads can reliably take out a reaper' Where do you think we'll be in another 5? 10? 20? And active war will only accelerate that techological advance. By the end of 100 years our dreads might be managing to take on 4 reapers at the same time and reliably come out on top!

How come the organics can develop better techs but the Reapers can't?

cause.... the reapers havent advanced in millions of years? They use the same IFF, same production methods, etc.

And even if they did invent something new, they would have no way of refiting their ships to accept the new technology. They have what they have, and never more.

[iamweaver]

Teneroth wrote...

iamweaver wrote...

The reason I said, "with what force?" is because those forces are currently around Earth, being decimated by a superior Reaper fleet.  That was the plan, and it's in motion right now.  Hackett, before the start of this battle, has alreadyt warned you that he's not sure if the fleet will even be enough to protect the Crucible before activation.  Yes, I know that's what he always says, it builds dramatic tension - but we have to assume that whatever the size of our fleet, in game, the reaper fleet is not only larger (which was actually hoped for in the original plan), but much larger.

And if we are doing back-of-the-envelope calculations, try figuring out how many Capital-class Reapers would be created out of 20,000 cycles, even assuming that 50% of those Reapers have been destroyed at some point (or that a cycle didn't have a species "worthy" of becoming one).  Then try guessing how many destroyers might have been created from lesser races.  Its a whole bunch.

Yes, but the reapers can't be everywhere at once, they are the invading force, and they appear to be stretched thin as it was. Most of their forces were attacking 3 worlds: Palavan, Earth, and Thessia. Rannock and Tchanca only warented a single destroyer each. 

So ya, lets assume they have 10,000 capitol ships. Lets also assume that each of the 3 major worlds I mentioned get 2,000 reaper caps. That leaves a force of 4,000 patroling the galaxy. Each quadrent of the galaxy, according to the map anyways, contains 10-20 clusters, each of which have a relay. that averages out to a total of 60 relay clusters. Which means each relay can have only ~67 reaper caps in it's general area. Each cluster probably has a couple dozen to close to a hundred systems. Lets assume 30 systems per relay, on the low side, means about 2 reaper caps per system. 

Lets take 1 year of production and put it against a single systems worth of reapers. Two caps and a few destroyers.

The alliance forces would blow them to peices. not with out losses granted, but we can replace our losses. THE REAPERS CAN'T. We blow up a couple reapers here, a few there, asymetric warfare. By the time they gather a large enough force to stop the alliance forces we're already gone. It's defeat in detail.

And I'm not even going into technological advance. In 5 years we went from 'unable to scratch their sheilds' to '4 dreads can reliably take out a reaper' Where do you think we'll be in another 5? 10? 20? And active war will only accelerate that techological advance. By the end of 100 years our dreads might be managing to take on 4 reapers at the same time and reliably come out on top!

I must have missed something.  Are we pretending that ME2-3 didn't happen, and we know all about the reaper threat and actually are intelligent about it?  If so, then it's a different ball of wax, for sure.  But at this point, it becomes making stuff up out of whole cloth.

We know absolutely nothing about the production capabilities of any of the starfaring races.  We know nothing about manuacturing times for ships except for the Normandy 2.  And by nothing, I mean absolutely nothing.  It's not as though you can say, "Well in the 21st C  it takes us X months to build some ship that floats in the water and has nothing to do with a ship that's much bigger and has an FTL drive, so it must take X months to build it as well".  OK, I lie.  we do know that it takes less than 30 years for the human worlds to to build 7 dreadnaughts.

All we know is the number of Dreadnaughts that each race has. That's it.  From that, we can't really derive anything.

But if you're right, and if we ignore the Crucible and create moderate-sized forces for asymmetric warfare, I find it hard to believe that we will be able to put much of a dent into the Reaper fleet before they redeploy themselves in a more defensive posture, then just turn the surface of all the worlds containing starfaring races for this cycle into glass, one by one.

[carrmatt91]

iamweaver wrote...

Teneroth wrote...

iamweaver wrote...

The reason I said, "with what force?" is because those forces are currently around Earth, being decimated by a superior Reaper fleet.  That was the plan, and it's in motion right now.  Hackett, before the start of this battle, has alreadyt warned you that he's not sure if the fleet will even be enough to protect the Crucible before activation.  Yes, I know that's what he always says, it builds dramatic tension - but we have to assume that whatever the size of our fleet, in game, the reaper fleet is not only larger (which was actually hoped for in the original plan), but much larger.

And if we are doing back-of-the-envelope calculations, try figuring out how many Capital-class Reapers would be created out of 20,000 cycles, even assuming that 50% of those Reapers have been destroyed at some point (or that a cycle didn't have a species "worthy" of becoming one).  Then try guessing how many destroyers might have been created from lesser races.  Its a whole bunch.

Yes, but the reapers can't be everywhere at once, they are the invading force, and they appear to be stretched thin as it was. Most of their forces were attacking 3 worlds: Palavan, Earth, and Thessia. Rannock and Tchanca only warented a single destroyer each. 

So ya, lets assume they have 10,000 capitol ships. Lets also assume that each of the 3 major worlds I mentioned get 2,000 reaper caps. That leaves a force of 4,000 patroling the galaxy. Each quadrent of the galaxy, according to the map anyways, contains 10-20 clusters, each of which have a relay. that averages out to a total of 60 relay clusters. Which means each relay can have only ~67 reaper caps in it's general area. Each cluster probably has a couple dozen to close to a hundred systems. Lets assume 30 systems per relay, on the low side, means about 2 reaper caps per system. 

Lets take 1 year of production and put it against a single systems worth of reapers. Two caps and a few destroyers.

The alliance forces would blow them to peices. not with out losses granted, but we can replace our losses. THE REAPERS CAN'T. We blow up a couple reapers here, a few there, asymetric warfare. By the time they gather a large enough force to stop the alliance forces we're already gone. It's defeat in detail.

And I'm not even going into technological advance. In 5 years we went from 'unable to scratch their sheilds' to '4 dreads can reliably take out a reaper' Where do you think we'll be in another 5? 10? 20? And active war will only accelerate that techological advance. By the end of 100 years our dreads might be managing to take on 4 reapers at the same time and reliably come out on top!

I must have missed something.  Are we pretending that ME2-3 didn't happen, and we know all about the reaper threat and actually are intelligent about it?  If so, then it's a different ball of wax, for sure.  But at this point, it becomes making stuff up out of whole cloth.

We know absolutely nothing about the production capabilities of any of the starfaring races.  We know nothing about manuacturing times for ships except for the Normandy 2.  And by nothing, I mean absolutely nothing.  It's not as though you can say, "Well in the 21st C  it takes us X months to build some ship that floats in the water and has nothing to do with a ship that's much bigger and has an FTL drive, so it must take X months to build it as well".  OK, I lie.  we do know that it takes less than 30 years for the human worlds to to build 7 dreadnaughts.

All we know is the number of Dreadnaughts that each race has. That's it.  From that, we can't really derive anything.

But if you're right, and if we ignore the Crucible and create moderate-sized forces for asymmetric warfare, I find it hard to believe that we will be able to put much of a dent into the Reaper fleet before they redeploy themselves in a more defensive posture, then just turn the surface of all the worlds containing starfaring races for this cycle into glass, one by one.

it's stated during thessia, that the asari tried using geurilla style hit and run tactics but the reapers just started attacking the planet forcing them into a slugging match, so it is safe to assume the reapers aren't stupid enough to not change tactics to use your weakness.

and plus it's also stated that the reapers destroy all infrastructure they come across, ie fuel dumps, manufaction centres etc along with supply lines which puts a dent in all manufacturing of ships.

also in me1 that admiral (mikhailovich?) said that the normandy sr1 cost the same as either 1000 or 10000 fighters (i can't remember which one).

[Teneroth]

iamweaver wrote...

I must have missed something.  Are we pretending that ME2-3 didn't happen, and we know all about the reaper threat and actually are intelligent about it?  If so, then it's a different ball of wax, for sure.  But at this point, it becomes making stuff up out of whole cloth.

We know absolutely nothing about the production capabilities of any of the starfaring races.  We know nothing about manuacturing times for ships except for the Normandy 2.  And by nothing, I mean absolutely nothing.  It's not as though you can say, "Well in the 21st C  it takes us X months to build some ship that floats in the water and has nothing to do with a ship that's much bigger and has an FTL drive, so it must take X months to build it as well".  OK, I lie.  we do know that it takes less than 30 years for the human worlds to to build 7 dreadnaughts.

All we know is the number of Dreadnaughts that each race has. That's it.  From that, we can't really derive anything.

But if you're right, and if we ignore the Crucible and create moderate-sized forces for asymmetric warfare, I find it hard to believe that we will be able to put much of a dent into the Reaper fleet before they redeploy themselves in a more defensive posture, then just turn the surface of all the worlds containing starfaring races for this cycle into glass, one by one.

I admit, I am making some assumptions. I am comparing a sea faring navy to a space going one, but, in the end, they are more comparable then you might think.

Yes ships will have gotten more complex, but they would stay about the same in relative complexity to the industerial base (with the exception of super advanced vessels like the Normandy). Increased difficulty in building a ship is countered by increased production capability, improved tech and more skilled labor. Short of any massive production increasing tech like contruction-nano-bots or replicators (neither of which is present in ME) relative ship construction times will remain about the same, especially during times of war (which is why I used WWII and not modern day build rates).

As for reaper reactions... They have never delt with this situation before. Every previous cycle they have had the luxury of taking on a single cluster at once, darkening the skies with their ships. That also seems to me to be their best bet, and most likely fall back, in order to prevent this war of attrition. But that won't work any more, with the relays active our ships can escape theirs, move to another cluster and keep building, reaserching and growing. Mines can be placed to continue to slowly grind down the reaper numbers. Every loss they take is one they CAN NOT replace. The Geth and Quarians, in my opinion, have the best chance of suviving this way. The Geth have reaper upgrades and 'are capable of incredable technological advances' according to ME2 and 3. these reaper upgrades also make them resistant if not immune to control by the reapers, they have no limit on how many crew members they can supply for ship construction. And, unlike the reapers, are not static in numbers. 

The Quarians, on the other hand, are constantly on the move, don't have any planet that can be 'glassed.' they might have to give up Rannoch again, but that's a small price to pay. And why can't other races follow the quarian's example and go nomad? With the relays up they could manage it. Since the relays can, apparently, manage ships the size of the citidel mobile shipyards become a possiblity. combined with the wealth of reaper tech floating around the galaxy now I see no reason we couldn't, eventually, win.

[iamweaver]

Teneroth wrote...
<snip>
Yes ships will have gotten more complex, but they would stay about the same in relative complexity to the industerial base (with the exception of super advanced vessels like the Normandy). Increased difficulty in building a ship is countered by increased production capability, improved tech and more skilled labor. Short of any massive production increasing tech like contruction-nano-bots or replicators (neither of which is present in ME) relative ship construction times will remain about the same, especially during times of war (which is why I used WWII and not modern day build rates).

As for reaper reactions... They have never delt with this situation before. Every previous cycle they have had the luxury of taking on a single cluster at once, darkening the skies with their ships. That also seems to me to be their best bet, and most likely fall back, in order to prevent this war of attrition. But that won't work any more, with the relays active our ships can escape theirs, move to another cluster and keep building, reaserching and growing. Mines can be placed to continue to slowly grind down the reaper numbers. Every loss they take is one they CAN NOT replace. The Geth and Quarians, in my opinion, have the best chance of suviving this way. The Geth have reaper upgrades and 'are capable of incredable technological advances' according to ME2 and 3. these reaper upgrades also make them resistant if not immune to control by the reapers, they have no limit on how many crew members they can supply for ship construction. And, unlike the reapers, are not static in numbers. 
[

The Quarians, on the other hand, are constantly on the move, don't have any planet that can be 'glassed.' they might have to give up Rannoch again, but that's a small price to pay. And why can't other races follow the quarian's example and go nomad? With the relays up they could manage it. Since the relays can, apparently, manage ships the size of the citidel mobile shipyards become a possiblity. combined with the wealth of reaper tech floating around the galaxy now I see no reason we couldn't, eventually, win.

OK. This has moved from the realm of "I'm trying to extrapolate from what I know" to "I'm going to write my own story in the ME universe".  Let me say that you can write a story that has the galaxy winning - I completely, absolutely agree.  I will even concede that you can do so, starting from the plotline at the end of ME1.

What this has to do with choosing the "Destroy" option while standing at the mouth of the Crucible at the end of ME3, I have no clue.

[Dean_the_Young]

Teneroth wrote...

iamweaver wrote...

The reason I said, "with what force?" is because those forces are currently around Earth, being decimated by a superior Reaper fleet.  That was the plan, and it's in motion right now.  Hackett, before the start of this battle, has alreadyt warned you that he's not sure if the fleet will even be enough to protect the Crucible before activation.  Yes, I know that's what he always says, it builds dramatic tension - but we have to assume that whatever the size of our fleet, in game, the reaper fleet is not only larger (which was actually hoped for in the original plan), but much larger.

And if we are doing back-of-the-envelope calculations, try figuring out how many Capital-class Reapers would be created out of 20,000 cycles, even assuming that 50% of those Reapers have been destroyed at some point (or that a cycle didn't have a species "worthy" of becoming one).  Then try guessing how many destroyers might have been created from lesser races.  Its a whole bunch.

Yes, but the reapers can't be everywhere at once, they are the invading force, and they appear to be stretched thin as it was. Most of their forces were attacking 3 worlds: Palavan, Earth, and Thessia. Rannock and Tchanca only warented a single destroyer each. 

So ya, lets assume they have 10,000 capitol ships. Lets also assume that each of the 3 major worlds I mentioned get 2,000 reaper caps. That leaves a force of 4,000 patroling the galaxy. Each quadrent of the galaxy, according to the map anyways, contains 10-20 clusters, each of which have a relay. that averages out to a total of 60 relay clusters. Which means each relay can have only ~67 reaper caps in it's general area. Each cluster probably has a couple dozen to close to a hundred systems. Lets assume 30 systems per relay, on the low side, means about 2 reaper caps per system. 

Lets take 1 year of production and put it against a single systems worth of reapers. Two caps and a few destroyers.

The alliance forces would blow them to peices. not with out losses granted, but we can replace our losses. THE REAPERS CAN'T. We blow up a couple reapers here, a few there, asymetric warfare. By the time they gather a large enough force to stop the alliance forces we're already gone. It's defeat in detail.

Except the galaxy doesn't have that level of production
capacity. Most production capacity is on the homeworlds and large
colonies (where most of the population and workers are), most of which
have either been captured already or are in the process of falling.

Nor do the reaper capital ships need to stay on the homeworlds after they fall. Once the significant resistance is squashed in a matter of weeks, the capital ships aren't needed: indoctrinated troops, smaller craft, and support ships can hold the worlds, while those other Reapers go to the areas of most importance.

Nor do the Reapers need to spread out evenly in the ratio you describe and allow themselves to be confronted by unfavorable ratios. Nor do they need to stay and fight at unfavorable ratios.

And I'm not even going into technological advance. In 5 years we went from 'unable to scratch their sheilds' to '4 dreads can reliably take out a reaper' Where do you think we'll be in another 5? 10? 20? And active war will only accelerate that techological advance. By the end of 100 years our dreads might be managing to take on 4 reapers at the same time and reliably come out on top!

Besides that catchup is a different issue than tech superiority, especially when your catchup relies on reverse engineering, in 100 years the galaxy won't have the resources for a dreadnaught: the homeworlds and major colonies will have fallen, the location-immobile fuel warship refineries smashed, the shipyards destroyed, and the economy crashed long ago.

[Chashan]

While I kind of agree with some that there are ample threads dealing with the topic "discussed" here, I kind of got to shake my head at certain turns this has and is taking:

HYR 2.0 wrote...

Skirata129 wrote...

Simply put, from Shepard's point of view, he is being confronted with a VI that claims to have created the Reapers,

The suggestion being made here is an ad-hominem, we're off to a bad start already.

How does the OP qualify as such?

You are not exactly a clean slate as far as ad hominis are concerned either concerning the topic of the finale at large...

and who presents a very flawed argument

There is virtually nothing it could say to us to justify the genocide it has commited. His argument is going to be flawed no matter what.

Point of the OP still stands either way: the thing is not even_trying_to give a plausible enough reason for doing what it is doing.
Much cited discarded 'dark energy' plot could have provided for an argument compelling enough for the Reapers to try and dissolve at all cost. What we are stuck with, however...

or original goals.

You don't have to agree with his reasoning for any of those 3 choices to line up with your original goals. As is, they already do, for MANY of us.

Still does not mean that not being willing to play along with the thing's game is not perfectly valid given its underwhelming appearance and failing attempt at persuasion.

These choices are not even presented in a professional manner, such as inputting them in a terminal. Instead, for all shepard knows, the VI who admits to being a Reaper ally just told him to either shoot a fuel tank at close range, grab a live power line, or step into a giant beam of energy that will disintegrate him.

Two thread responses from me.
[...]

Wait, did you not right above state that it does not matter what the thing spouts? Which is it, then?

Seriously, there's no logical reason to pick anything EXCEPT refuse.

Well apparently not, seeing as how this notion was achieved through a complete and utter abortion of all logic.
[...]

I don't know, the case you are making is not all that much better...

Do not get me wrong, at the end of the day I still prefer letting the Reapers bite the dust and taking the line "everything lost can be rebuilt" quite literally for things going forward.
That does not mean that the ambiguity of Refuse does not make for an interesting option to head-canon a pyrrhic victory of the Reapers. A 'victory' whereby they nearly eradicated the current cycle but were forced to withdraw prior to achieving ultimate defeat of this cycle's peoples, being weakened enough to be eliminated in their next farming season.