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UR Drop Rate Experiment - SPs/PSPs/RPs/APs - Reckoning DLC Update


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#226
artificial-ignorance

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DylanBar wrote...

I hit 50 psps with 0 urs the other day, now i'm going to hoard every credit i get. not wasting credits and certainly not real money on junk...


Yeah I think I might start hoarding credits if I get over 30 PSPs with no UR.  It just doesn't seem worth it to continuously get LvL4 Consumables.

#227
FullMetalArthur

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Wow, that's what I call Love for the Game. But nice doing.

Anyhow, how you get lv IV ammo? Does that happen when you lv up all gold weapons and mods?

#228
metaempiricist

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So what I'm seeing here in your records is that there is NOT an actual increase to UR rate with premium packs but rather only a negligible chance after the 10% to get another UR? (I've only gotten two URs at once one time)
Seeing that makes it clear to me that regular spectre packs are by far the superior choice being 40% cheaper and having the same rate of UR drop. I'd rather not pay an extra 40,000 for level 4 ammo

#229
metaempiricist

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FullMetalArthur wrote...

Wow, that's what I call Love for the Game. But nice doing.

Anyhow, how you get lv IV ammo? Does that happen when you lv up all gold weapons and mods?

It starts happening after unlocking all the gold character cards I believe.

#230
artificial-ignorance

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smilinpig wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

smashthings wrote...

I find it really interesting that the main source of income for MP is people buying packs, but at the moment the communty is generally fustrated by the packs (ergo, wont buy them)

so I guess Bioware should do one of several things:
1) explain clearly to the community how the RNG works, and telling us what packs are best to buy when we want XorY stuff. (for uncommon gear, anyone tried spamming vet packs, for example?)
2) increase the chances of droping ultra rares/gear once rares are maxed.
3) Bring out new packs with less randomness. Eg. weapons packs, character packs, Ultra rare packs etc. make them High in credits but low in MS points then maybe Bioware can find a balence between income and developing a fair playing field.


I like these options.  Number 3 especially seems like a particularly good idea for Bioware.  I would be down for a pack costing 1 million credits if its guaranteed an UR.

Its a completely greed based system....they will never change it. Knowing we 'desire' the UR's they make it near impossible to get them even after hours and hours of playing.... they WANT us to spend CASH on M$ points, it's that simple. they will never make desirable items easy to get.

the real shame is 2 weeks to Borderlands 2 and I expect a big portion of the community to disappear or be much less visible in MP....they've had a great opportunity to grant us the UR's the past month and failed miserably. Much as I like the game I hate the store passionately and cannot wait to kiss its greedy filthy B$ *ss goodbye in 2 weeks. I may play occasionally but the days of 10 plus hours are going to be long gone. I will however harbor long standing hate towards that store for not granting me a friggen harrier.


Yeah I doubt they would ever change the store.  I bet they're making loads off microtransactions.

#231
artificial-ignorance

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metaempiricist wrote...

So what I'm seeing here in your records is that there is NOT an actual increase to UR rate with premium packs but rather only a negligible chance after the 10% to get another UR? (I've only gotten two URs at once one time)
Seeing that makes it clear to me that regular spectre packs are by far the superior choice being 40% cheaper and having the same rate of UR drop. I'd rather not pay an extra 40,000 for level 4 ammo


This is incorrect.  The drop rate listed for PSPs is per rare card, so comparing SP UR drop rate to rare card PSP drop rate is not relevant.  I will remedy this in the OP by posting the per PSP drop rates.  Sorry for the confusion.

With my current stats, Per PSP:
 10 URs/122 PSPs = 8.2%
LvL4 Consumables = 100% - 8.2% = 91.8%

So (so far) the conclusion is that there IS a higher chance in PSPs to get URs (8.2% chance per PSP and 6.3% chance per SP)... However whether it is significant or not is not yet known as the sample size is still too small.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 04 septembre 2012 - 12:07 .


#232
Drummernate

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Spent another 500,000 and got 3 new Ultra-Rares.... ones that I will never use.

23,500,000

8 Ultra-Rares.

That's 2,937,500 between each on average.

Modifié par Drummernate, 04 septembre 2012 - 12:10 .


#233
artificial-ignorance

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metaempiricist wrote...

FullMetalArthur wrote...

Wow, that's what I call Love for the Game. But nice doing.

Anyhow, how you get lv IV ammo? Does that happen when you lv up all gold weapons and mods?

It starts happening after unlocking all the gold character cards I believe.


Yes, I definitely love Mass Effect - even with the incredibly broken store.  Its bittersweet.

And I believe metaempiricist is correct.

#234
Zikel

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Just bought 61 SP, got 4 UR

#235
artificial-ignorance

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Drummernate wrote...

Spent another 500,000 and got 3 new Ultra-Rares.... ones that I will never use.

23,500,000

8 Ultra-Rares.

That's 2,937,500 between each on average.


500K for 3 URs is great, but overall ouch... thats rough.
I have an average credits per UR of 1,207,800 so far.

Lemme guess what the useless URs were:  wraith, javelin and paladin?  those are my least favourites.

#236
FreaperFTW

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I've been keeping a tab myself since I saw a thread a couple of months back.

PSP: 57

UR: 14

There's also 7 SP's thrown in there, but I'm not sure they count though.

Modifié par FreaperFTW, 04 septembre 2012 - 01:02 .


#237
Swarlos1713

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17 PSPs and 4 SPs since Friday. I received 1 UR in a PSP today.

#238
metaempiricist

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artificial-ignorance wrote...


This is incorrect.  The drop rate listed for PSPs is per rare card, so comparing SP UR drop rate to rare card PSP drop rate is not relevant.  I will remedy this in the OP by posting the per PSP drop rates.  Sorry for the confusion.

With my current stats, Per PSP:
 10 URs/122 PSPs = 8.2%
LvL4 Consumables = 100% - 8.2% = 91.8%

So (so far) the conclusion is that there IS a higher chance in PSPs to get URs (8.2% chance per PSP and 6.3% chance per SP)... However whether it is significant or not is not yet known as the sample size is still too small.

Oh I see, well then to me that means the you are paying an extra 66% for another 1.9% chance for an ultra rare? That is not a worthy trade off.

#239
smashthings

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The real calculation that needs to be made is what pack is better on a per credit basis.

So, a quick bit of math reveals:

60x15 = 900
99x09 = 891

...which means that there is an aproximate ratio of 15/9 (15 SP for every 9 PSP) ...so the real question is this: what yeilds a better drop rate; 15 SP or 9PSP's ??

going off the current estimate of  8.2% chance per PSP and 6.3% chance per SP (which I will round to 8% and 6% to allow a small margin of error)  then:

PSP: 0.08x09 =  0.72  (72%)
SP:   0.06x15 =  0.90  (90%)

Ergo, per 900,000 credits  SP offer a better chance of a UR

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Having said all that I would have thought PSPs would be about 30K cheaper.

If we assume that there is a 2.5% UR drop rate per Rare slot (and, in the case of PSP's the slots are independant) than that would mean, per rare Slot PSP's have a 5% chance to drop a UR and SP would have a 2.5% chance.

The chance of double UR would thus be 0.025x0.025= 0.000625  (which is 0.065%)

Now if that were true then PSP would be better per credit spent; they are after all, a doubling of chance for an extra 33% cost.

SP:   15x0.025 = 0.375  (37%)
PSP: 09x0.05 =  0.45     (45%)

This way of thinking seems intuitive, but does not seem to match the current data.  (EDIT: I have just assumed 2.5% here for demonstration. Looking at the OP post, 3-4% seems like a more relaible estimate)

Bioware could of course end this discussion by telling us how the calcuation is made, but failing that, we are probably going to need a lot more accurate date to decipher how UR's get dropped.

Modifié par smashthings, 04 septembre 2012 - 02:11 .


#240
metaempiricist

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in the past two or three days I've gotten quite a few URs. Maybe six or seven. I'll keep my fingers crossed for this to continue.

#241
metaempiricist

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smashthings wrote...

The real calculation that needs to be made is what pack is better on a per credit basis.

So, a quick bit of math reveals:

60x15 = 900
99x09 = 891

...which means that there is an aproximate ratio of 15/9 (15 SP for every 9 PSP) ...so the real question is this: what yeilds a better drop rate; 15 SP or 9PSP's ??


If we take what the OP said about 10 URs in 122 PSPs than there is a difference of 1.9% between the 8.2% of PSP and the 6.2% of the SP so with the PSP you would have a 73.8% and with SP a 93% chance so the choice is clear..assuming the original percentages are typical or close to itB)

#242
Drummernate

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artificial-ignorance wrote...

Drummernate wrote...

Spent another 500,000 and got 3 new Ultra-Rares.... ones that I will never use.

23,500,000

8 Ultra-Rares.

That's 2,937,500 between each on average.


500K for 3 URs is great, but overall ouch... thats rough.
I have an average credits per UR of 1,207,800 so far.

Lemme guess what the useless URs were:  wraith, javelin and paladin?  those are my least favourites.


Very close...

It was Wraith, Scorpion, Paladin.


I actually love the Javelin. ^_^


I honestly think there is a certain time of day where you will have a really high chance of Ultra-Rares.

Every time I get an Ultra-Rare it is usually accompanied by at least one more. IF I buy them in the same hour of the day.

Some days it is 6PM, other days it is 8PM, etc.

But every pack I bought between 8PM and 9PM had an Ultra-Rare that day.

Modifié par Drummernate, 04 septembre 2012 - 01:35 .


#243
metaempiricist

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haha whilst doing my calculations you did some of your own Smashing things and I see you came up with almost the same numbers...fancy that math in real life situations my teachers always said I would need to crunch numbers for some arbitrary mechanic in a video game to make sense to me and boy were they right!

Modifié par metaempiricist, 04 septembre 2012 - 01:39 .


#244
smashthings

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metaempiricist wrote...


haha whilst doing my calculations you did some of your own Smashing things and I see you came up with almost the same numbers...fancy that math in real life situations my teachers always said I would need to crunch numbers for some arbitrary mechanic in a video game to make sense to me and boy were they right!


I have edited my post since then.    :)


it strike me that there are two equally valid ways of think about the problem; and since is takes lots of packs to notice the difference (15+9) then it will take a lot more of them to work out exactly what method Bioware uses.  All I'm confident in saying is that PSP's are ethier 33% too expensive or 33% cheaper.   Making a purposive assumption, I'm thinking that PSP's will offer better drops on a per credit basis, we just need the 'per rare slot' drop number and then we could work it out.

#245
artificial-ignorance

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Drummernate wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Drummernate wrote...

Spent another 500,000 and got 3 new Ultra-Rares.... ones that I will never use.

23,500,000

8 Ultra-Rares.

That's 2,937,500 between each on average.


500K for 3 URs is great, but overall ouch... thats rough.
I have an average credits per UR of 1,207,800 so far.

Lemme guess what the useless URs were:  wraith, javelin and paladin?  those are my least favourites.


Very close...

It was Wraith, Scorpion, Paladin.


I actually love the Javelin. ^_^


I honestly think there is a certain time of day where you will have a really high chance of Ultra-Rares.

Every time I get an Ultra-Rare it is usually accompanied by at least one more. IF I buy them in the same hour of the day.

Some days it is 6PM, other days it is 8PM, etc.

But every pack I bought between 8PM and 9PM had an Ultra-Rare that day.


AHH 2 for 3 haha
Scorpion can sometimes be fun... for an UR though, its not very good.
Im not too sure about your time of day theory though lol  :devil:

#246
UnknownMercenary

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The scorpion is not bad once it's levelled. A low level scorpion has too little ammo for what its supposed to do.

Bought 10 SPs last night, only 1 UR.

#247
Xander Harris

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Yesterday I had my luckiest day for PSPs ever. I opened 4 PSPs and got 5 URs.

1st PSP: Paladin VIII
2nd PSP: Saber VIII and Scorpion III
3rd PSP: Scorpion IV
4th PSP: Wraith V

Kind of makes up for the multiple times when i've gone 20+ PSPs without getting a UR.

#248
Uh Cold

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I save up a mil every now and then and buy psps 10 at a time.
I get about 1 UR every 10 psps
Sometimes I get 0 other times I get 3 but overall I average it to 1/10 for URs on psps.

#249
metaempiricist

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smashthings wrote...

metaempiricist wrote...


haha whilst doing my calculations you did some of your own Smashing things and I see you came up with almost the same numbers...fancy that math in real life situations my teachers always said I would need to crunch numbers for some arbitrary mechanic in a video game to make sense to me and boy were they right!


I have edited my post since then.    :)


it strike me that there are two equally valid ways of think about the problem; and since is takes lots of packs to notice the difference (15+9) then it will take a lot more of them to work out exactly what method Bioware uses.  All I'm confident in saying is that PSP's are ethier 33% too expensive or 33% cheaper.   Making a purposive assumption, I'm thinking that PSP's will offer better drops on a per credit basis, we just need the 'per rare slot' drop number and then we could work it out.

I know. I wish there were listed number value for things like that. Also for the damage on weapons instead of the bar just give us a number or overlay one on the damage bar in the weapons menu...39,000 is 66% of 60,000

#250
UnknownMercenary

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20 more spectre packs and nothing. ****ing crap troll store.