642 réponses à ce sujet

[artificial-ignorance]

reioni wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

reioni wrote...

Taken from this post about the WiiU http://social.biowar...8325/1#15118476

Bryan Johnson wrote...

For someone to get the ultra rares up to level 20 or so would probably require a minimum of 250 hours so saying that it is quicker for them then it is for people on Xbox/PC/PS3 is incorrect.

I know this is taking it a little out of context but 250 hour min just seems like an amazing amount of luck to max out URs without cheating.

This is my manifest and I am no where near done with my URs almost 600 hours.  granted I have bad luck.

Wow.  I don't know where Mr. Johnson gets his statistics.  250 hours? That is impossible, unless that person used cheats or purchased the majority of their packs with real money.  From what I've heard, the average maxed manifest seems to be around 700-800 hours.  Of course there are outliers, but 250 hours?  Also, what does he mean by URs at "level 20 or so"?

Thank you for this.

I think he must have meant 10/X but still 250 hours...I saw that and thought does BW really believe that is even possible without cheating or real money.  I've spent about $90 total or more in real money early on with the Xpacs for chars cus I wanted them right away and I didn't want to wait. So factor that in to my URs.  I know bryan was going for a best case scenario but I just don't see it happening unless you are the luckiest person in the world.

Someone posted that they believed it was previously easier to get URs with the earlier xpac or before the xpacs all together and I agree.  We used to get repeat gold char cards so I am kinda glad they replaced those with the new stuff but it seems like the change for a UR was significantly reduced.

btw thanks for the tip on the packs.  I got 2 URs in a row =D which is nice after 20+ PSP with nothing.

250 hours to max URs is definitely not possible.  I don't see how it can be done, unless you only bought RPs and APs right from the get go.

I'm glad your luck is improving! Keep at it! You'll get there eventually.

[niripas]

Just bought 30APs and 30RPs. No UR. I think the OP was just really lucky or there was some kind of increase of chances during Christmas time.

[LEADSPECTRE]

well I have gotten more UR weapons on PSPs than on APs, I have not bought any RP since I max all my characters. I think I'll keep getting PSPs.

Modifié par LEADSPECTRE, 04 janvier 2013 - 01:43 .

[BlackDahlia424]

No amount of statistical advantage will help me. The RNG hates me. I might have gotten 4-5 UR drops in the last month playing only Gold or Platinum.

[Eelectrica]

I'll just continue rotating between the 3 I think.
It's feast or famine with RNG. Mostly famine.

[nuh1]

Think OP got a lucky stream of URs from RPs and APs. Seems to have swayed the stats because of it. Needs more testing on the reserves and arsenal for it to be a correct read but sadly probably not an option because of max manifest of OP. IMO the three 99k packs have equal chances for URs and everyone is getting the superstition / placebo effect from them just because of good luck. The margin of error is just too high for RPs and APs with how little have been bought compared to PSPs in these stats. I realize you can't really redo it because of max manifest but I think the chance percentages of the RPs and APs are way off and are basically just giving people false hope.

Modifié par nuh1, 04 janvier 2013 - 01:55 .

[artificial-ignorance]

niripas wrote...

Just bought 30APs and 30RPs. No UR. I think the OP was just really lucky or there was some kind of increase of chances during Christmas time.

  Thats entirely possible.
Also, you just spent 6 million credits?

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 04 janvier 2013 - 04:09 .

[artificial-ignorance]

nuh1 wrote...

Think OP got a lucky stream of URs from RPs and APs. Seems to have swayed the stats because of it. Needs more testing on the reserves and arsenal for it to be a correct read but sadly probably not an option because of max manifest of OP. IMO the three 99k packs have equal chances for URs and everyone is getting the superstition / placebo effect from them just because of good luck. The margin of error is just too high for RPs and APs with how little have been bought compared to PSPs in these stats. I realize you can't really redo it because of max manifest but I think the chance percentages of the RPs and APs are way off and are basically just giving people false hope.

Your theory is quite possible.  I'm just going by what my data provided.  I had much better results with RPs and APs than the 300+PSPs I bought prior to the release of the new packs.
I agree though it definitely needs more testing.  Its too bad I maxed my manifest

Yet, I think it is not luck - completing 1/6 (20/120) of my UR unlocks in ~80 of the new packs?  And this in less than 2 weeks?  After months and months of grinding PSP after PSP, SP after SP?  I'm not THAT lucky.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 04 janvier 2013 - 04:05 .

[reioni]

A friend of mine said he saw a list on reddit where people many ppl were tracking their UR drop rate with the different packs and it supported your findings. I'll have to ask him for a link. I don't use reddit so I have no idea where it is on their site.

[millahnna]

The 250 hours as a minimum actually makes sense to me. It's a minimum. If you played for 250 hours nothing but winning platinum games with maximum income from objectives and got exceedingly lucky when you bought your packs you could probably max your manifest at 250 hours. The average, as we all know, is going to be much higher than that. I'm guessing it's a bell curve though I vacillate on where I'm guessing the peak will be and am entirely too lazy to collect the data of everyone with a maxed manifest. Maybe the average is about 600-700 hours? So outliers as low as 250 are possible and we know from recent posts here the opposite end outliers are at 900-1000 hours.

[Hellsteeth30]

RNG supporters confirmed as morons.

If BW must insist on this rubbish a pay increase for ALL challenge levels is needed.

Spending an hour or two playing and saving then seeing all that money get you nothing you want in return makes me want to start smoking again.

[niripas]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

niripas wrote...

Just bought 30APs and 30RPs. No UR. I think the OP was just really lucky or there was some kind of increase of chances during Christmas time.

  Thats entirely possible.
Also, you just spent 6 million credits?

Actually about 8.4 mills. Spent the last 2.4 getting 40 SPs and got Collector SMG IV (yes - the idea was to purchase 100 packs, altough I was thinking about getting 20 PSPs, 20 APs, 20 RPs and 40SPs to have the same amount of gold slots in each pack  type )).  IIRC my driest spell was spending over 20 mills without getting an UR. So I stick to SPs - they are the best balance for me for getting consumables and equipment. Otherwise I would have to buy JEPs now and then, which are without the chance to get an UR at all.

[TriniWarlord]

I'll take it as a belated Christmas gift Thanks Bro!!

[FreaperFTW]

Cool thanks.

So even if I don't have my gear maxed, AP are the way to go?

[KyreneZA]

I still need 79 URs (and am 2 rare gears away from maxed rares), so could start journaling my purchases to get a bigger sample of PSP vs. AP vs. RP results.

[artificial-ignorance]

FreaperFTW wrote...

Cool thanks.

So even if I don't have my gear maxed, AP are the way to go?

I'm not sure how gear drops in RPs or APs as I maxed gear before those packs were introduced.

[artificial-ignorance]

millahnna wrote...

The 250 hours as a minimum actually makes sense to me. It's a minimum. If you played for 250 hours nothing but winning platinum games with maximum income from objectives and got exceedingly lucky when you bought your packs you could probably max your manifest at 250 hours. The average, as we all know, is going to be much higher than that. I'm guessing it's a bell curve though I vacillate on where I'm guessing the peak will be and am entirely too lazy to collect the data of everyone with a maxed manifest. Maybe the average is about 600-700 hours? So outliers as low as 250 are possible and we know from recent posts here the opposite end outliers are at 900-1000 hours.

  Even as a minimum, 250 hours is not possible.  An N7 level 1 player with no gear and only common weapons at I will not be able to play platinum.  The only way for that to happen would be to have 3 other players capable of winning platinum games for the new player on a regular basis.

[artificial-ignorance]

TriniWarlord wrote...

I'll take it as a belated Christmas gift Thanks Bro!!

  Merry Belated Christmas!

[Funball_Woohee]

@artificial-ignorance Hi, I saw you article a few days ago and it's quite helpful. I tried some of the recommendations and had occasional success. I have all the characters upgraded but not ultra-rare weapons fully upgraded. I had some luck with a few Arsenal and Reserves packs but eventually started getting Level 4 ammo after ~5th pack. What's your suggestion at this point? Thanks!

[artificial-ignorance]

warpshadez wrote...

@artificial-ignorance Hi, I saw you article a few days ago and it's quite helpful. I tried some of the recommendations and had occasional success. I have all the characters upgraded but not ultra-rare weapons fully upgraded. I had some luck with a few Arsenal and Reserves packs but eventually started getting Level 4 ammo after ~5th pack. What's your suggestion at this point? Thanks!

  Id say still try to perservere with RPs and APs.  Take a look at the third part of my unlock list on Page 14 - I had a losing streak of 14 but eventually got out of it.  It still was better than buying PSPs imo.

[millahnna]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Even as a minimum, 250 hours is not possible.  An N7 level 1 player with no gear and only common weapons at I will not be able to play platinum.  The only way for that to happen would be to have 3 other players capable of winning platinum games for the new player on a regular basis.

BOlded your exception because that's kind of my point.  It's an extreme mathematical improbability but not impossible (I'm guessing, I don't know, the number sounds possible under extreme and extremey unlikely circumstances).  I'm not talking about the normal way most of us go through it (the average) but that lowest dip on the bell curve on that side.  It's a marketing thing to make claims based on the outliers and averages in an off way like that.  It keeps reputatins virtually spotless.

[Dakidjosh]

i bought ~30 RP got 1 Javelin upgrade so im thinking RNG is RNG and RNG hates me. imma try out the arsenals now because your stats are just too amazing for me 2 ignore them

[kevosama]

Nice job man.
Also, are your pack lists in chronological order with no packs missing? I'd like to see how closely they come to a poisson distribution.

[artificial-ignorance]

millahnna wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Even as a minimum, 250 hours is not possible.  An N7 level 1 player with no gear and only common weapons at I will not be able to play platinum.  The only way for that to happen would be to have 3 other players capable of winning platinum games for the new player on a regular basis.

BOlded your exception because that's kind of my point.  It's an extreme mathematical improbability but not impossible (I'm guessing, I don't know, the number sounds possible under extreme and extremey unlikely circumstances).  I'm not talking about the normal way most of us go through it (the average) but that lowest dip on the bell curve on that side.  It's a marketing thing to make claims based on the outliers and averages in an off way like that.  It keeps reputatins virtually spotless.

  Yeah I agree.  Possible only under extreme and extremely unlikely circumstances.  Still, he should have mentioned that instead of saying "250 hours and you should be maxing your manifest!"

I did the math:  250 hours = 15,000 minutes.  If each platinum match was ~30 minutes, that would = 500 matches.  If each match averages around 130K, that = 65 million.  I did this experiment with 54 million.  Granted, I had some URs before this experiment began, but if the new player bought only RPs and APs, I think its possible.  Again, only if he had a team of 3 carrying him through 500 platinum games.  This is all incredibly hypothetical.

[artificial-ignorance]

kevosama wrote...

Nice job man.
Also, are your pack lists in chronological order with no packs missing? I'd like to see how closely they come to a poisson distribution.

  Yep the list is all chronological.  All my unlocks, in order, from August 1, 2012.