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UR Drop Rate Experiment - SPs/PSPs/RPs/APs - Reckoning DLC Update


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#401
Shepard VI

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My friend's one reserve pack...

Posted Image

I reacted by buying 5, didn't get ****** all except Level 4 equipment. Then he got a Paladin upgrade in an Arsenal pack. Guess what guys? It's random.

Number crunch all you want, there is no common denominator when it comes to RNG.

#402
Mystical_Gaming

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so should we avoid PSP and SP from now on and only focus on the weapon and character packs?

#403
HolyAvenger

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Mystical_Gaming wrote...

so should we avoid PSP and SP from now on and only focus on the weapon and character packs?

 

My experience has been that playing 3-5 Plat games a day nets me at least one UR upgrade/day from PSPs. Yesterday I got 3 in 5 PSPs.

I don't think UR drop rate varies between the 3 99k packs.

#404
artificial-ignorance

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IndoctrinatedSpectre wrote...

My friend's one reserve pack...

I reacted by buying 5, didn't get ****** all except Level 4 equipment. Then he got a Paladin upgrade in an Arsenal pack. Guess what guys? It's random.

Number crunch all you want, there is no common denominator when it comes to RNG.

  Because buying 5 packs is a decent sample size...  By all means, continue purchasing whatever packs you want - I'm just going by my statistics, which indicate a better drop rate in RPs and APs as well as a rapid conclusion to my manifest.  If you're not convinced by the percentages, take a look at my complete unlock list.  Just remember, I've recorded hundreds of packs, and from my experience with this experiment, I've stopped believing that the store is random (PSPs vs. new packs).  The drop rate discrepancy is too damn high.

Posted Image

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 05 janvier 2013 - 05:39 .


#405
CrutchCricket

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A few more arsenal packs today got me 3 gears and an UR. I again stopped buying once the next pack was all IVs.

It doesn't prove anything, but arsenal pack seem to be working for me for the time being so I'll stay with'em a while longer.

#406
Salarious

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So, 50 million creds or so, That's just mean.

#407
tictactucrac

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Ehm sorry but...


TOTALS
#SP's = 169
#PSP's = 363
#RP's = 54
#AP's = 29


54? 29? It's almost like if i said "hello, i unlocked 1 UR in 1 PSP, so PSP has a UR drop rate = 100%"

So thanks for the test, but numbers are wrong, at least for RP and AP, even SP. 363 psp looks better, but a least 1000 is better in statistics.

#408
artificial-ignorance

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tictactucrac wrote...

Ehm sorry but...


TOTALS
#SP's = 169
#PSP's = 363
#RP's = 54
#AP's = 29


54? 29? It's almost like if i said "hello, i unlocked 1 UR in 1 PSP, so PSP has a UR drop rate = 100%"

So thanks for the test, but numbers are wrong, at least for RP and AP, even SP. 363 psp looks better, but a least 1000 is better in statistics.

Nothing I can do about that.  Manifest is maxed (thanks to RPs and APs).  I've been looking for other stats on RPs and APs, but havent found any that are larger than mine.

Would you feel better if I combined RPs and APs into one category? Then they would equal 83.  The drop rate per pack would be 22.9% for both RPs and APs.  Would you deem that more signifcant than 20.7% and 24.1%?  It will still be double the drop rate of PSPs.

P.S.  1000 PSPs would be 99 million credits.  Or to put that in perspective, 2990$.  Or even more perspective: roughly 1300 hours (by my playtime). 

P.P.S. randomfoo has a collaborative online spreadsheet - Its down right now, but we're at over 2000 PSPs.  Last I checked, the drop rate was around 12%.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 05 janvier 2013 - 06:35 .


#409
RaXelliX

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Bought only RP-s today. Almost 1 million spent. 3 UR-s. Im happy. Will keep buying RP-s from now on.

#410
Shepard VI

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My friend and I have been buying Arsenal Packs, and we have unlocked:

Me - Saber IX, Saber X
Him - Harrier II, Talon II, Indra I, Javelin I, Typhoon III, Paladin IV

I'm pretty much just buying Arsenal Packs now, because of his ridiculous luck. The funniest part? He doesn't have all his uncommons/rares maxed out.

Modifié par IndoctrinatedSpectre, 05 janvier 2013 - 10:03 .


#411
Clayless

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Huh, just went and spent 400k on RP and AP's and got a double UR in one of my AP's. Collector SMG 5 and Wraith 6.

Maybe you're right OP.

#412
FlowCytometry

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Guess its time to replace buying PSPs w/ APs and RPs. Really appreciate what you've done here, man. Nice work tracking it all (and thank goodness respec cards can still drop in the new packs).

Modifié par FlowCytometry, 05 janvier 2013 - 10:55 .


#413
artificial-ignorance

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I'm glad you guys are having better results with RPs and APs. Spread the word!

#414
Baron_Von_Bonbon

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Question, has Bioware ever acknowledged in any capacity that their UR drop frequency is unfair/masochistic?

No game should take 700+ hours to 100% complete. BS...BS...BS...BS...BS!

Modifié par Baron_Von_Bonbon, 05 janvier 2013 - 07:45 .


#415
artificial-ignorance

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Baron_Von_Bonbon wrote...

Question, has Bioware ever acknowledged in any capacity that their UR drop frequency is unfair/masochistic?

No game should take 700+ hours to 100% complete. BS...BS...BS...BS...BS!

  I have no idea, and I agree - it shouldn't have to take this long.

#416
artificial-ignorance

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***UPDATE***

Randomfoo's online collaborative spreadsheet is back up - I added my data to it.  So far, it has 2435 PSPs recorded, amounting to a combined total of 241,065,000 credits and 384 URs.  The overall drop rate in PSPs is at 15.77%.

For those who are interested, here is the link:  docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc

Cheers! :wizard:

#417
OneMore1968

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Thx for that AI.  It kinda shows that it really is luck of the draw when it comes to getting the decent stuff.  And maybe the only way to get it for some people is to buy using Bioware Points!

No surprise that they released those AP's and RP's for Christmas to coincide with Trilogy release or keep existing player base happy.  And it's true, I've had more R and UR stuff in the past month than I've had since buying ME3 in March 2012.  Thanks Bioware  !  It's ridiculous how long some stuff takes to max out.  And those who just bought the Trilogy can do it faster, way to go BW.

It does seem to be the case now that the PSP's are now virtually useless in comparison.  I would love to know the formula with which these things are given.  Would much prefer a system where you could at least buy the weapons that you want.  I think most people have loads that they only use to complete the Challenges.  Also if the packs do "look" at your profile and check existing stuff, the fact that I've got 19 Rare Gear and only tend to use 2 on a regular basis leads the cynical part of me to think that Bioware do engineer it so you get more crap than anything else.

Just wish you could clear out stuff you don't want/use and get those credits back.

EDIT: Typo

Modifié par Carlina, 07 janvier 2013 - 10:26 .


#418
pawatt6

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Has anybody tested if the drop rate is constant throughout your career or does the percentage seem to drop as you get closer to a maxed manifest?

#419
artificial-ignorance

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pawatt6 wrote...

Has anybody tested if the drop rate is constant throughout your career or does the percentage seem to drop as you get closer to a maxed manifest?

  That would be difficult to test.  To get significant results, you would have to have multiple people testing if the rate changes.

#420
artificial-ignorance

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Carlina wrote...
-snip-
It does seem to be the case now that the PSP's are now virtually useless in comparison.  I would love to know the formula with which these things are given.  Would much prefer a system where you could at least buy the weapons that you want.  I think most people have loads that they only use to complete the Challenges.  Also if the packs do "look" at your profile and check existing stuff, the fact that I've got 19 Rare Gear and only tend to use 2 on a regular basis leads the cynical part of me to think that Bioware do engineer it so you get more crap than anything else.

Just wish you could clear out stuff you don't want/use and get those credits back.

EDIT: Typo

  I would love it if Bioware released information on their algorithm for the store.  It would shed light on various issues the BSN community has with the store as well as ease some of our concerns (albeit it may exacerbate others).

The problem with your idea about a system where you buy weapons that you want is that EA/Bioware would gain less on microtransactions.  The fact that the store is random means that more money will be spent by frustrated users - since it takes so long to max the best weapons of the game (arguably, the URs) means that more people will end up spending money out of frustration/a belief that purchasing packs through virtual currecy gives you a better chance at an UR.  This seems evil I know, but from a purely business standpoint it makes perfect sense.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 08 janvier 2013 - 01:35 .


#421
Esrever

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I'm starting to rotate between PSP's, Arsenal and Reserve.

I went about 27 packs without a UR last week, and even worse, no Cyclonics and only got 1 shotgun amp. Majority was Cryo and Disruptor IV's very few Incendiary IV's, and a few AP IV's. Really, really the worst luck I've had playing the game.

Got annoyed, saved up a couple of mil, then bought 10 packs today, 3 Reserves (Got Wraith VII), 3 PSP's (Got Indra VI) and 4 Arsenals (Got Wraith VIII).

Today was a good day.

#422
artificial-ignorance

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Esrever wrote...

I'm starting to rotate between PSP's, Arsenal and Reserve.

I went about 27 packs without a UR last week, and even worse, no Cyclonics and only got 1 shotgun amp. Majority was Cryo and Disruptor IV's very few Incendiary IV's, and a few AP IV's. Really, really the worst luck I've had playing the game.

Got annoyed, saved up a couple of mil, then bought 10 packs today, 3 Reserves (Got Wraith VII), 3 PSP's (Got Indra VI) and 4 Arsenals (Got Wraith VIII).

Today was a good day.

Congratz! Glad your luck is improving!  www.youtube.com/watch

#423
TrveOmegaSlayer

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Hugs man.
I bought 62 PSPs in a row without getting an UR back in August...that would kill 95% of players.
I still have to get 49 upgrades to max out my manifest and...we know a new DLC is coming soon.
So...yeah, must start to buy AP and RP even if the drop rate of UR seems to have increased overall lately.

#424
artificial-ignorance

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TrveOmegaSlayer wrote...

Hugs man.
I bought 62 PSPs in a row without getting an UR back in August...that would kill 95% of players.
I still have to get 49 upgrades to max out my manifest and...we know a new DLC is coming soon.
So...yeah, must start to buy AP and RP even if the drop rate of UR seems to have increased overall lately.

Wow 62?  I only know of one other person with a losing streak like that - I think she had 66.

#425
Trontor

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artificial-ignorance wrote...

PSP Unlockables           ||     #     ||         Per Rare Card                Per PSP
Other                                        580                  93.1%                              88.2%
Ultra Rare Weapons                  43                    6.9%                               11.8%

RP Unlockables            ||     #     ||          Per Rare Card                 Per RP
Other                                       95                      88.0%                             75.9%
Ultra Rare Weapons                13                     12.0%                              24.1%

AP Unlockables           ||     #     ||          Per Rare Card                   Per AP
Other                                     52                         89.7%                              79.3%
Ultra Rare Weapons               6                          10.3%                             20.7%


My numbers look a bit different:
PSPs: 3 ultra-rares in 25 packs
APs: 2 ultra-rares in 24 packs
RPs: 6 ultra-rares in 24 packs

While both our numbers seem to suggest that RPs work best they contradict each other when it comes to PSPs and ARs. My guess is still that all three packs have the same chance for ultra-rare weapons. But you need a large enough sample size to prove that.