UR Drop Rate Experiment - SPs/PSPs/RPs/APs - Reckoning DLC Update
#26
Posté 06 août 2012 - 01:43
#27
Posté 06 août 2012 - 02:45
JaimasOfRaxis wrote...
For a dude with the handle Artifiical -Ignorance, you're a right spot-on dude.
Were that this forum had a dozen more like you.
lol thanks!
#28
Posté 06 août 2012 - 03:53
#29
Posté 06 août 2012 - 04:09
#30
Posté 06 août 2012 - 04:45
I feel sorry for your bad luck towards the RNG. All of us are having the same issue. Bioware needs to look into this store thing and show us some light!
#31
Posté 06 août 2012 - 04:50
Credits Spent 32,274,000
UR Drop Rate 14.72%
Armor-Piercing Rounds 4 19.63%
Cryo Rounds 4 17.79%
Disruptor Rounds 4 20.86%
Incendiary Rounds 4 20.55%
Warp Rounds 4 21.78%
Cyclonic Modulator 4 24.23%
Power Amplifier Module 4 25.15%
(a few million of the packs were before level 4 ammo came out, and of course a few million were new DLC items, but the level 4 drops are useful for seeing if any ammo was rarer than any other: the conclusion being that they're not).
#32
Posté 06 août 2012 - 04:58
randomfoo wrote...
I've been waiting on posting my stats until I've X'd out my UR's (at my current rate I'm about 15M credits away), but here are my drop rates from the past ~330 PSPs, from when started tracking my stats rigorously:
Credits Spent 32,274,000
UR Drop Rate 14.72%
Armor-Piercing Rounds 4 19.63%
Cryo Rounds 4 17.79%
Disruptor Rounds 4 20.86%
Incendiary Rounds 4 20.55%
Warp Rounds 4 21.78%
Cyclonic Modulator 4 24.23%
Power Amplifier Module 4 25.15%
(a few million of the packs were before level 4 ammo came out, and of course a few million were new DLC items, but the level 4 drops are useful for seeing if any ammo was rarer than any other: the conclusion being that they're not).
Did you happen to record the gear drop rates?
#33
Posté 06 août 2012 - 05:20
As you can see from my manifest, while I'm closing in on the rare gear, the "uncommon" gear has been elusive - I actually spent 1M creds on vet packs that first week and got 1 of the new uncommon gear.
While my sample-size is too small for it to be statistically significant, I did notice that on 8/3-8/4 I got a 32% drop rate on the rare gear vs <10% drop rate over 150+ PSPs before then.
#34
Posté 06 août 2012 - 05:23
PSP in total:64
LVL IV Consumables: 58%
Rare Gear (RG): 39%
Ultra Rare Weapons: 2,4%
Pack Loss during disconnection:1
Credits total: 6,336,000
#35
Posté 06 août 2012 - 05:30
randomfoo wrote...
Yes, although I had all the gear already unlocked until the Earth DLC. Is there anything you specifically want to know? (I have a custom functions written to calculate those numbers against the spreadsheet).
As you can see from my manifest, while I'm closing in on the rare gear, the "uncommon" gear has been elusive - I actually spent 1M creds on vet packs that first week and got 1 of the new uncommon gear.
While my sample-size is too small for it to be statistically significant, I did notice that on 8/3-8/4 I got a 32% drop rate on the rare gear vs <10% drop rate over 150+ PSPs before then.
I'm using custom functions as well (god bless excel)! If you can, I'd like to know your relative %'s of uncommon gear, rare gear, URs, and Lvl4 consumables grouped together - similar to what I've done with the probabilities - so that we can compare data.
We are the epitome of nerddom - comparing data on video game unlocks!
#36
Posté 06 août 2012 - 05:31
Sabina261187 wrote...
OP made a calc on my drops, here they are:
PSP in total:64
LVL IV Consumables: 58%
Rare Gear (RG): 39%
Ultra Rare Weapons: 2,4%
Pack Loss during disconnection:1
Credits total: 6,336,000
A highly unusual drop rate compared to others - still trying to figure that one out
#37
Posté 06 août 2012 - 05:34
I would love to know how the packs determine content, but I'm guessing any time a Rare slot rolls a maxed weapon, character, etc, it just quickly replaces it with level IV ammo.
#38
Posté 06 août 2012 - 05:50
#39
Posté 06 août 2012 - 05:57
#40
Posté 06 août 2012 - 06:24
ZombieGambit wrote...
What's the probability of getting a respec card in a VP or SP? I've been trying for an entire week and haven't gotten a single one. Starting to get pissed, because I'm tired of promoting.
The way the store system works, nobody can tell you.... I have a GF that have been trying for weeks as well.. As goes for me, I only buy PSP's and I use all my respec cards every week, and as soon as I buy the enxt pack after, I get it again straight away....
#41
Posté 06 août 2012 - 06:51
#42
Posté 06 août 2012 - 06:54
artificial-ignorance wrote...
Sabina261187 wrote...
OP made a calc on my drops, here they are:
PSP in total:64
LVL IV Consumables: 58%
Rare Gear (RG): 39%
Ultra Rare Weapons: 2,4%
Pack Loss during disconnection:1
Credits total: 6,336,000
A highly unusual drop rate compared to others - still trying to figure that one out
What part? w/ a sample size that small, it's just probability. ie, the error margin on the UR weapon drop rate is ~+/-10% at a 99% confidence level.
I've well gone over 5M credits in PSPs w/o an UR - part of what made me start keeping stats, and I know that at least someone on the forums had hit 8M+ credits w/o an UR.
Right before my last run of PSPs I tracked a run of 58 SPs w/o an UR.
#43
Posté 06 août 2012 - 07:02
#44
Posté 06 août 2012 - 07:07
Kenadian wrote...
RNG sucks. Nothing new.
True that.
To the OP : Thanks for posting this
#45
Posté 06 août 2012 - 07:12
randomfoo wrote...
artificial-ignorance wrote...
Sabina261187 wrote...
OP made a calc on my drops, here they are:
PSP in total:64
LVL IV Consumables: 58%
Rare Gear (RG): 39%
Ultra Rare Weapons: 2,4%
Pack Loss during disconnection:1
Credits total: 6,336,000
A highly unusual drop rate compared to others - still trying to figure that one out
What part? w/ a sample size that small, it's just probability. ie, the error margin on the UR weapon drop rate is ~+/-10% at a 99% confidence level.
I've well gone over 5M credits in PSPs w/o an UR - part of what made me start keeping stats, and I know that at least someone on the forums had hit 8M+ credits w/o an UR.
Right before my last run of PSPs I tracked a run of 58 SPs w/o an UR.
Yeah, 8.6 mill to be precise, can't remember his name though
#46
Posté 06 août 2012 - 07:16
artificial-ignorance wrote...
randomfoo wrote...
Yes, although I had all the gear already unlocked until the Earth DLC. Is there anything you specifically want to know? (I have a custom functions written to calculate those numbers against the spreadsheet).
As you can see from my manifest, while I'm closing in on the rare gear, the "uncommon" gear has been elusive - I actually spent 1M creds on vet packs that first week and got 1 of the new uncommon gear.
While my sample-size is too small for it to be statistically significant, I did notice that on 8/3-8/4 I got a 32% drop rate on the rare gear vs <10% drop rate over 150+ PSPs before then.
I'm using custom functions as well (god bless excel)! If you can, I'd like to know your relative %'s of uncommon gear, rare gear, URs, and Lvl4 consumables grouped together - similar to what I've done with the probabilities - so that we can compare data.
We are the epitome of nerddom - comparing data on video game unlocks!
Aggregating the gear and grouping consumables would involve some modifications that I'm not really feeling like atm, but if some other people pop out of the woodwork w/ numbers, I might do it. From my previous calculations, we would need to aggregate ~9000 (891M credits worth of) PSP purchases to get within a +/-1% margin of error at a 99% confidence level.
For those following along at home, the relevant statistical concepts are binomial distribution and sample sizes.
#47
Posté 06 août 2012 - 10:08
#48
Posté 06 août 2012 - 11:43
joker_jack wrote...
Bump just because bioware needs to see this.
#49
Posté 06 août 2012 - 11:45
#50
Posté 06 août 2012 - 12:28
x SHIRO x wrote...
joker_jack wrote...
Bump just because bioware needs to see this.
qft





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