642 réponses à ce sujet

[artificial-ignorance]

***UPDATE***

-> Slight drop in UR rate: 18.2% -> 17.5% for RPs. Since the last update I bought 47 RPs and 2 APs.
-> Unlocks this update include: Geth Spitfire IX & X, M-7 Lancer VI through VIII, Bloodpack SMG VIII, and Venom Shotgun V.
-> RPs still have the best drop rate, and the lowest credits per UR.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 09 mars 2013 - 04:24 .

[Romann9944]

thank you,AI.you save my life.<3.I will try this.
the rate of pack is really frustrate me.

Modifié par Romann9944, 11 mars 2013 - 12:53 .

[RaXelliX]

Hmm just had a double UR RP. First double UR pack in a looong time:

[artificial-ignorance]

RaXelliX wrote...

Hmm just had a double UR RP. First double UR pack in a looong time:

  Congratz!  Enjoy it while you can, it'll probably never happen again (I'm a pessimist).  I've only ever gotten 1 double UR pack, also from a RP.

[Mr Awesome 0ne]

Thank you for this thread AI.

I used your method to go from 28 UR's to 6 in a matter of around 3 weeks using Reserve Packs. It was amazing!

Then.

Reckoning came out, and Reserves Packs have B**** Slapped me in the face since then. Hard. Almost like a payback for how well I did Pre-Reckoning.

I have had such terrible luck since the new DLC, but when I do get an UR it is usually in a PSP.

[Diogo Marzo]

This topic should be stickied.

[coolmandool]

Ummm yeah. I have never received an UR from RPs, but have had a decentish drop rate with PSPs (1.5 URs per 10). May be just bad lick though....

Got me wondering if they vary the drop rate by region/time zone.... Maybe that is just tinfoil theory, but trying to figure out how over 5mill on RPs the xperience could be that varied....

[artificial-ignorance]

***UPDATE***

-> I'm thinking of making a separate chart in the OP for collaborative data (with the same format as the chart with my own data). I'll be sifting through the pages of this thread and compiling the data people have provided, tallying up the results, and calculating drop rates.
-> The thing that has kept me from doing this is the possibility of people providing unreliable/false data which would therefore skew the overall results... but I can just provide a side note under the chart stating that "data may be unreliable" or something to that nature.
-> If I was technically adept enough, I would formulate an online spreadsheet so that individuals can enter their own data, but alas I am not and will therefore be attempting to do this all myself.
-> This will probably take me a long time, and my schedule is getting busier and busier now that exams are approaching, so this may not be finished until May (haha). I'm just bringing it up now in case some people would like to make a contribution in the future weeks/months.
-> Thanks to everyone that has already provided their own data - I will be using this as a starting point.

Cheers!

[KyreneZA]

My own data (from the beginning of the year):

PSP - IV, Talon VI
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, IV
SP - IV (Structural Ergonomics III)
PSP - Assault Loadout V, IV
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, IV
SP - IV
PSP - IV, IV
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, Responder Loadout V
SP - IV
PSP - IV, IV
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, IV
SP - Wraith IV (Structural Ergonomics IV)
PSP - IV, IV
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, Paladin IV
SP - IV
PSP - Saber II, Typhoon VI
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, IV (Structural Ergonomics V)
SP - IV
PSP - Scorpion III, Harrier VI
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, IV
SP - IV
PSP - IV, IV
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, IV
SP - IV
PSP - IV, IV
AP - IV, Scorpion IV
RP - IV, IV
SP - IV
PSP - IV, IV
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, IV
SP - IV
PSP - IV, Scorpion V
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, IV
SP - IV
PSP - IV, IV
AP - IV, IV
RP - Wraith V, Saber III
SP - IV
PSP - IV, IV
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, IV
SP - IV
PSP - IV, IV
AP - IV, IV
RP - IV, IV
SP - IV
PSP - IV, Harrier VII
AP - IV, IV
RP - Wraith VI, IV
SP - IV
Reckoning DLC
RP - Alliance Infiltration Unit, Talon Mercenary
RP - Alliance Infiltration Unit, Cabal Vanguard
RP - Sniper Rifle ULM I, Awakened Collector, Geth Scanner I
RP - Talon Mercenary, Typhoon VII
RP - Krogan Warlord, Awakened Collector
RP - Krogan Warlord, Batarian Gauntlets I
RP - Krogan Warlord, Talon Mercenary
RP - Batarian Gauntlets II, Geth Scanner II
RP - Batarian Gauntlets III, Krogan Warlord
RP - Awakened Collector, Batarian Gauntlets IV
RP - Cabal Vanguard, Geth Scanner III
RP - Cabal Vanguard, Talon Mercenary
RP - Cabal Vanguard, Geth Juggernaut
RP - Awakened Collector, Geth Juggernaut
RP - SMG Power Magnifier I, Cabal Vanguard, Geth Juggernaut
RP - Sniper Rifle ULM II, Harrier VIII, Geth Juggernaut
AP - Shotgun ULM I, Suppressor I, Executioner I
AP - Adas Anti-Synthetic I, Batarian Gauntlets V
AP - Executioner II, Blood Pack Punisher I
AP - Suppressor II, Executioner III
AP - Suppressor III, Geth Scanner IV
AP - Adas Anti-Synthetic II, Suppressor IV
AP - Geth Scanner V, IV
AP - Suppressor V, Adas Anti-Synthetic III
AP - Pistol Power Magnifier I, Suppressor VI, IV

Average ~392K / UR

[rdd0013]

artificial-ignorance wrote...
Congratz!  Enjoy it while you can, it'll probably never happen again (I'm a pessimist).  I've only ever gotten 1 double UR pack, also from a RP.

i know what you mean. I've gotten two, and on back-to-back days. Paladin X and Indra IX in one, Indra X and I don't even remember what the other one was. Probably the Venom shotgun. It is pretty forgettable, after all. 
And as of a few days ago, my pre-Reckoning inventory is maxed. Until they added the promotional weapons today, I only needed 21 URs. Hopefully I can finally upgrade my Hurricane VII now. Haven't gotten one of those since around November. 

[Stinja]

I just spent two million on PSPs and got a single Hurricane VIII.

Have they gutted the UR drop rate?

[Eckswhyzed]

For anyone interested in the accuracy of these drop rates:

Treating each rare card as an independent event, we can construct confidence intervals for drop rate per rare card:

Using the Clopper‐Pearson confidence interval at 95%:
PSP: 5.656% to 10.14%
Arsenal: 3.596% to 12.34%
Reserves: 6.821% to 12.94%

If we make the assumption that all the packs have the same drop rate:
PSP + AP + RP: 6.706% to 10.01% (@ 95% confidence)

Based on this data I don't think we can conclude much about the drop rates of PSP vs AP vs RP, unfortunately

[artificial-ignorance]

Eckswhyzed wrote...

For anyone interested in the accuracy of these drop rates:

Treating each rare card as an independent event, we can construct confidence intervals for drop rate per rare card:

Using the Clopper‐Pearson confidence interval at 95%:
PSP: 5.656% to 10.14%
Arsenal: 3.596% to 12.34%
Reserves: 6.821% to 12.94%

If we make the assumption that all the packs have the same drop rate:
PSP + AP + RP: 6.706% to 10.01% (@ 95% confidence)

Based on this data I don't think we can conclude much about the drop rates of PSP vs AP vs RP, unfortunately

  Thank you for this.

However, for one person, achieving a level of confidence that provides an acceptably statistically significant set of data is near impossible - it would take around 5000 packs for each (ie. 5000 SPs, 5000 PSPs, 5000 RPs, 5000 APs).
-> For one thing, I would max out my URs long before purchasing that many packs.
-> For another, buying that many packs would cost almost 2 billion credits (I haven't spent 80 million yet since August - which was 7 months ago, and I'm 100% positive I did not spend anywhere near 1 billion in the 6 months prior to that).

I hope to alleviate some of the concerns about sample size by formulating a collaborative data set for PSPs, RPs, and APs, which will hopefully provide more statistically significant results.  However, like i've said before, collaborative data has the flaw that the provided results may be unreliable and/or false.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 13 mars 2013 - 11:36 .

[d_nought]

Wow, been a long time since I've posted here. Ever since my last post:

509 Spectre Packs -> 40 URs
447 Premium Spectre Packs -> 73 URs
11 Reserve Packs -> 2 URs

Modifié par chipsandwich, 13 mars 2013 - 11:47 .

[DarkerCompanion]

So you are telling me I should buy the packs meant for getting characters? I just want to make sure I'm not confused here.

[rdd0013]

Yes.

[mackfactor]

Look guys, this was awesome of the OP to put together, but the sample sizes are WAY too small to get usable results. When you're dealing with percentages in the 5-10% range, you'd need a sample size of 10,000 or more to get a representative correlation.

On top of that, I highly doubt that Bioware really went to the trouble of programming in a different UR percentage for Reserve packs as opposed to Arsenal and PSPs. Seems odd that they would go that route, no?

Edit : just saw someone say something similar above. Either way, thanks for putting in the effort, OP.

Modifié par mackfactor, 22 mars 2013 - 02:57 .

[GoWest89]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

RaXelliX wrote...

Hmm just had a double UR RP. First double UR pack in a looong time:

  Congratz!  Enjoy it while you can, it'll probably never happen again (I'm a pessimist).  I've only ever gotten 1 double UR pack, also from a RP.

anyone else notice that "Paladin" is actually a carnifex 

[DarkerCompanion]

Well, unless the reserve packs are actually detrimental to unlocking UR cards, there is really no downside.

That said, inspired, I bought 7 last night and nada. My drought passes 3 million and rising.

[galaxygrunt]

Probably been said a hundred times before, but why...WHY...can't Bio-Ware simply tell us what the actual numbers are so we can make an informed choice as to what we spend our credits on? I mean, how hard can that be?

[KyreneZA]

 

[Noipsaj]

Just a little bit info...

24 PSP and 3 UR´s.... day after buy 7 SP and got 2 UR´s... no more PSP for me... don´t worth it!!!!!!

[ddemner]

just spent 2M on RP and got 3 UR (Javelin on #3, saber on #12, Valkyrie on #20).

[RaXelliX]

Last month stats from buying RP-s only:

04.03.2013: -
05.03.2013: Collector SMG VII
06.03.2013: -
07.03.2013: -
08.03.2013: -
09.03.2013: -
10.03.2013: Venom I | Venom II | Indra VII | Paladin VIII | Javelin X

11.03.2013: Indra VIII
12.03.2013: -
13.03.2013: -
14.03.2013: -
15.03.2013: Indra IX
16.03.2013: -
17.03.2013: -

18.03.2013: -
19.03.2013: Wraith VIII | Valkyrie IV | Venom III | Scorpion VIII
20.03.2013: Indra X | Talon VIII
21.03.2013: Typhoon VII | Wraith IX | Crusader IV
22.03.2013: -
23.03.2013: Scorpion IX | Valkyrie V | Paladin IX
24.03.2013: Eagle VIII

25.03.2013: Collector SMG VIII
26.03.2013: -
27.03.2013: -
28.03.2013: -
29.03.2013: -
30.03.2013: Eagle IX | Hurricane IX | Venom IV
31.03.2013: -

This month so far:

01.04.2013: -
02.04.2013: -
03.04.2013: -
04.04.2013: -
05.04.2013: -
06.04.2013: Scorpion X | Spitfire III | Spitfire IV
07.04.2013: Eagle X

08.04.2013: Wraith X
09.04.2013: Venom V | Talon IX
10.04.2013: -
11.04.2013: -
12.04.2013: -
13.04.2013: Valkyrie VI
14.04.2013: Lancer IV | Collector SMG IX | Hurricane X

15.04.2013: Typhoon VIII | Talon X
16.04.2013: Spitfire V | Particle Rifle VI
17.04.2013: Crusader V

[NeoDobby]

My stats since 13.01.2013:

Started with PSPs, added APs and RPs on 17.01., now I'm buying them AP-RP-PSP-AP-RP-PSP-...

Longest Streak without an UR: 27 packs

Unlocks to go: 71

AP 155 Packs, 23 URs
RP 155 Packs, 31 URs (29 Weapons and 2 Awakened Collectors)
PSP 173 Packs, 31 URs (29 Weapons and 2 Awakened Collectors)

Fun fact: 4 double UR packs, 2 of them in the last 4 days

Details: Unlocks sorted by pack type and in backwards order (yes, still no Lancer... ):

AP
N7 Eagle 10, 15.04.2013
N7 Hurricane 7, 14.04.2013
N7 Valiant 7, 11.04.2013
Blood Pack Punisher 2, 31.03.2013
Blood Pack Punisher 1, 24.03.2013
Cerberus Harrier 5, 23.03.2013
N7 Eagle 8, 16.03.2013
N7 Hurricane 4, 15.03.2013
N7 Typhoon 7, 09.03.2013
M-77 Paladin 5, 08.03.2013
M-99 Saber 9, 01.03.2013
Venom Shotgun 2, 28.02.2013
Particle Rifle 3, 27.02.2013
Venom Shotgun 1, 27.02.2013
M-90 Indra 8, 17.02.2013
Scorpion 5, 12.02.2013
Javelin 6, 08.02.2013
N7 Typhoon 5, 03.02.2013
Cerberus Harrier 1, 03.02.2013
M-90 Indra 6, M-77 Paladin 3, 28.01.2013
M-99 Saber 4, 22.01.2013
Collector SMG 3, 21.01.2013

RP
N7 Hurricane 9, 17.04.2013
Venom Shotgun 5, N7 Hurricane 8, 14.04.2013
Wraith 8, 12.04.2013
Geth Spitfire 1, 12.04.2013
Scorpion 6, 03.04.2013
Particle Rifle 5, 01.04.2013
N7 Eagle 9, 31.03.2013
M-90 Indra 9, N7 Crusader 10, 26.03.2013
Cerberus Harrier 6, 25.03.2013
Collector SMG 7, 18.03.2013
M-358 Talon 8, 14.03.2013
Awakened Collector, 11.03.2013
N7 Typhoon 8, 09.03.2013
Awakened Collector, 08.03.2013
Cerberus Harrier 4, 07.03.2013
Collector SMG 6, 02.03.2013
N7 Typhoon 6, 24.02.2013
Cerberus Harrier 2, 17.02.2013
Collector SMG 5, 10.02.2013
Wraith 6, 08.02.2013
M-99 Saber 6, 08.02.2013
M-90 Indra 7, 05.02.2013
M-358 Talon 7, 05.02.2013
Black Widow 5, 02.02.2013
Collector SMG 4, 31.01.2013
Javelin 5, 30.01.2013
Particle Rifle 2, 28.01.2013
Collector SMG 2, 21.01.2013
Black Widow 4, 18.01.2013

PSP
N7 Hurricane 10, Black Widow 7, 17.04.2013
Venom Shotgun 6, 15.04.2013
Blood Pack Punisher 3,14.04.2013
N7 Valkyrie 3, 12.04.2013
Collector SMG 9, 11.04.2013
N7 Hurricane 6, 26.03.2013
Particle Rifle 4, 24.03.2013
N7 Hurricane 5, 24.03.2013
Collector SMG 8, 23.03.2013
Wraith 7, 23.03.2013
N7 Typhoon 9, 19.03.2013
M-77 Paladin 7, 18.03.2013
M-77 Paladin 6, 09.03.2013
Venom Shotgun 4, 08.03.2013
Awakened Collector, 06.03.2013
Cerberus Harrier 3, 02.03.2013
Black Widow 6, 02.03.2013
Venom Shotgun 3, 28.02.2013
Awakened Collector, 28.02.2013
M-99 Saber 8, 27.02.2013
M-99 Saber 7, 17.02.2013
M-77 Paladin 4, 08.02.2013
Wraith 5, 06.02.2013
M-99 Saber 5, 28.01.2013
Javelin 4, 28.01.2013
Wraith 4, 24.01.2013
M-358 Talon 6, 21.01.2013
Javelin 3, 14.01.2013
M-90 Indra 5, 13.01.2013
M-90 Indra 4, 13.01.2013

Modifié par NeoDobby, 18 avril 2013 - 12:15 .