642 réponses à ce sujet

[Shadow of Terror]

I think this is mainly a problem when you've maxed out everything but gear.

I've maxed weapons, still have character cards to get, but I'm getting rare gear every other PSP. Uncommon gear is hard to get though.

[Iarethejub]

Verry interesting. Thanks!

[Humming]

Gear is more useful than Ultra-rare drops, thus more uncommon.

Don't bother about the Uncommon/Rare names for gear, they're just there for grouping. They are not supposed to drop as much as the uncommon weapons.

[MikeSlackenerny]

Thank you very much for posting this. I do see that your overall probability for unlocking ultra-wares is lower than the corresponding probabilities in both SP and PSP, which is a peculiarity. I'd think since you were only buying SP and PSP, the overall probability will be between the corresponding probabilities for the two packs. Regardless though, a probability of 4 point something percent for me is a very low number, and definitely flies in the face of the much reported figures of 10% or thereabout.

And as an aside, from what I understand of central limit theorem, it actually takes a surprisingly small sample size to measure the percentage of a population. If I remember correctly a sample size of about 15 already gives you quite a precise 95% confidence interval, and that requirement is even lower if the true probability of the population is further away from 0.5.

Edit: after checking the numbers in more detail I see that the figures listed in the OP concern the percentage of the respective unlockables instead of the probability I understand it. So for example the probability of unlocking an UR from a PSP is 2/23=8.7%, which is much closer to the 10% much reported (although I still think the true probability has been set to less than 10%). From a statistic viewpoint it's perhaps useful to also list the EXPECTATION of each individual unlockable: the total number of the individual unlockable divided by the number of packs.

Modifié par MikeSlackenerny, 06 août 2012 - 12:55 .

[gen. Italia]

Well, sample size to small to be considered 'scientific' , but it shows the pattern.

[Clayless]

OP you are right when you said the rarity of the items actually causes frustration, I agree completely.

I have all the characters and rare weapons and mods maxed, I really think by this stage I should get a slightly increased chance of gear and UR's, it's really offputting to play just for level 4 consumables and a 4% chance of URs.

Modifié par Our_Last_Scene, 06 août 2012 - 12:56 .

[artificial-ignorance]

MystEU wrote...

Really small sample size, statistically, but it illustrates your point pretty well. Thanks for sharing.

Yes, so far the sample size is small - This is an ongoing record and it will grow and become more statistically accurate.

[artificial-ignorance]

randomfoo wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

randomfoo wrote...

Yes, although I had all the gear already unlocked until the Earth DLC. Is there anything you specifically want to know? (I have a custom functions written to calculate those numbers against the spreadsheet).

As you can see from my manifest, while I'm closing in on the rare gear, the "uncommon" gear has been elusive - I actually spent 1M creds on vet packs that first week and got 1 of the new uncommon gear.

While my sample-size is too small for it to be statistically significant, I did notice that on 8/3-8/4 I got a 32% drop rate on the rare gear vs <10% drop rate over 150+ PSPs before then.

I'm using custom functions as well (god bless excel)!  If you can, I'd like to know your relative %'s of uncommon gear, rare gear, URs, and Lvl4 consumables grouped together - similar to what I've done with the probabilities - so that we can compare data.

We are the epitome of nerddom - comparing data on video game unlocks! 

Aggregating the gear and grouping consumables would involve some modifications that I'm not really feeling like atm, but if some other people pop out of the woodwork w/ numbers, I might do it.  From my previous calculations, we would need to aggregate ~9000 (891M credits worth of) PSP purchases to get within a +/-1% margin of error at a 99% confidence level.

For those following along at home, the relevant statistical concepts are binomial distribution and sample sizes.

Hmm yes, a near-1% margin of error would be ideal, but if we aggregated some of the community's results, we may get some who are fudging numbers.

[Subguy614]

http://social.biowar.../index/13535881

[artificial-ignorance]

Shadow of Terror wrote...

I think this is mainly a problem when you've maxed out everything but gear.

I've maxed weapons, still have character cards to get, but I'm getting rare gear every other PSP. Uncommon gear is hard to get though.

Gear drop rates are low for the newly introduced Earth DLC gear.  The pre-Earth DLC gear dropped more frequently.

[hudder92]

Wow, I feel cheated. Out of all of the SP and PSP's that I have purchased I have never unlocked a level IV consumable ever.

[DarkAbsolution]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

I've noticed that Rare Gear is more rare than Ultra Rare Weapons (which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever).

Since Earth DLC release, for me (noting that I had ALL pre-Earth DLC gear maxed by the time Earth DLC released):

23 Ultra Rares (I had saved up 5.3M credits for the release, and got 9 URs with that, and 14 more since, with a total of around 13M credits spent since Earth DLC release)
11 Rare Gear
10 Uncommon gear

By my experience, Rare/Uncommon Gear drops at less than half the drop rate of Ultra Rares, respectively.

Modifié par DarkAbsolution, 06 août 2012 - 01:04 .

[artificial-ignorance]

MikeSlackenerny wrote...

Thank you very much for posting this. I do see that your overall probability for unlocking ultra-wares is lower than the corresponding probabilities in both SP and PSP, which is a peculiarity. I'd think since you were only buying SP and PSP, the overall probability will be between the corresponding probabilities for the two packs. Regardless though, a probability of 4 point something percent for me is a very low number, and definitely flies in the face of the much reported figures of 10% or thereabout.

And as an aside, from what I understand of central limit theorem, it actually takes a surprisingly small sample size to measure the percentage of a population. If I remember correctly a sample size of about 15 already gives you quite a precise 95% confidence interval, and that requirement is even lower if the true probability of the population is further away from 0.5.

Edit: after checking the numbers in more detail I see that the figures listed in the OP concern the percentage of the respective unlockables instead of the probability I understand it. So for example the probability of unlocking an UR from a PSP is 2/23=8.7%, which is much closer to the 10% much reported (although I still think the true probability has been set to less than 10%). From a statistic viewpoint it's perhaps useful to also list the EXPECTATION of each individual unlockable: the total number of the individual unlockable divided by the number of packs.

Oh, I should have been more clear - they are percentages of total rare cards - so since PSP's contain 2 rare cards, I included both in the calculation, as the RNG may have given a chance in either of the 2 rare cards for  a LvLIV consumable, a rare gear, or an ultra rare weapon.  Maybe I should provide the chance per pack as you have said...

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 06 août 2012 - 01:10 .

[Ndcj]

All pack contents are random,

[artificial-ignorance]

DarkAbsolution wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

I've noticed that Rare Gear is more rare than Ultra Rare Weapons (which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever).

Since Earth DLC release, for me (noting that I had ALL pre-Earth DLC gear maxed by the time Earth DLC released):

23 Ultra Rares (I had saved up 5.3M credits for the release, and got 9 URs with that, and 14 more since, with a total of around 13M credits spent since Earth DLC release)
11 Rare Gear
10 Uncommon gear

By my experience, Rare/Uncommon Gear drops at less than half the drop rate of Ultra Rares, respectively.

WOW!  9 ultra rares with 5.3M credits?  You have destroyed my friend Sabina with those stats.  With over 6 million credits, she unlocked 2 ultra rare weapons.

[ReflectedRed]

Single Player FTW because of really bad drop rates!

[Mr Worms]

Tired of getting IV ammo i maxed everything but Rare Gear and ultra rare weapons and it annoying to open packs just to get more IV ammo

[superligerzero]

Thanks for posting this!! More proof the something needs to be changed/fixed. What would the weapon mods be?

[LtAdams2247 Origin]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Some people claim that the random store "provides incentive to keep playing".   I adamantly disagree.  The random store provides nothing but frustration - and frustration for me and for a lot of people leads to giving up.  

Yeah, reached that point a couple of weeks ago. In fact I would have been playing longer if they went a little easier on the URs once all the rare weapons and characters were maxed. So if "incentive to keep playing" is the desired effects, it is extremely counter productive.

Awesome thread, mate.

[xabkish]

Sample size is ridiculously small.

There was some thread with much more data on SP/PSP and Ultra-rare drop rates. Try searching for it.

PS One thing seems to be obvious though: gear drop rates seem to be way off. Or BW is artificially making it harder to unlock everything for those of us with solid manifests.

Modifié par xabkish, 06 août 2012 - 01:47 .

[Jayleia]

hudder92 wrote...

Wow, I feel cheated. Out of all of the SP and PSP's that I have purchased I have never unlocked a level IV consumable ever.

You can't unlock them yet.  They replace rare character cards if you've maxed out the level and customization options for a character, then a level IV consumable will be rewarded instead of that.

Your manifest is very sparse on the rare characters, so you won't be getting those consumables for a LONG time, sorry:unsure:

[Mr Worms]

Removing IV ammo from being rare would fix everything until then i will be getting a lot of ammo and maxing out manifest it made so much harder and really killing the fun for me

[xabkish]

Mr Worms wrote...

Removing IV ammo from being rare would fix everything until then i will be getting a lot of ammo and maxing out manifest it made so much harder and really killing the fun for me

You realize that you'd get redundant character cards if there was no level four ammo? How would it simplify maxing out your manifest, huh?

And if you mean they should revamp the system so that it'd be easier to get new stuff as you unlock more and more of it (as in in maxing all the rares makes you get ultra-rares in guaranteed rare slots). Well, I think you understand that's not gonna happen, not while there are real money involved.

[ZombieGambit]

Sabina261187 wrote...

ZombieGambit wrote...

What's the probability of getting a respec card in a VP or SP? I've been trying for an entire week and haven't gotten a single one. Starting to get pissed, because I'm tired of promoting.

The way the store system works, nobody can tell you.... I have a GF that have been trying for weeks as well.. As goes for me, I only buy PSP's and I use all my respec cards every week, and as soon as I buy the enxt pack after, I get it again straight away.... 

Dammit, I hate the store. I said to hell with it and promoted my characters just to respec them. First SP and VP I bought after a couple Bronze and Silver matches had respec cards.

FUUUUUUUU...

[rlro]

Nice post. I'd like just to add my personal experience:

I'm not sure if I'm lucky or unlucky (probably the later), but since Earth I received 7 UR, 8 Earth Uncommon Gear and 15 Eath Rare Gear (and hundreds of ammo mods <_<).  So my odds are different from the ones you pointed.