642 réponses à ce sujet

[hudder92]

Jayleia wrote...

hudder92 wrote...

Wow, I feel cheated. Out of all of the SP and PSP's that I have purchased I have never unlocked a level IV consumable ever.

You can't unlock them yet.  They replace rare character cards if you've maxed out the level and customization options for a character, then a level IV consumable will be rewarded instead of that.

Your manifest is very sparse on the rare characters, so you won't be getting those consumables for a LONG time, sorry:unsure:

Yeah, I figured I have to purchase 79 PSP's in order to max out my character cards. 

I stopped playing for three months in order to play some other games, so I'm way behind.

Modifié par hudder92, 06 août 2012 - 04:00 .

[Undine.N]

Here are my packs from Friday, July 6th through Sunday, August 5th:

*Note my stats. are calculated by miscelaneous packs versus "good cards", meaning a pack containing 2-3 lv. 3 consumables and 2 lv. 4 consumables gets counted as ONE miscelaneous pack, while a pack containing 2 pieces of gear gets counted as TWO pieces of gear. This alters percentage totals, causing drop rates to exceed 100% when added. This might be the way BioWare calculates drop-rates, which is why we get much less than we expect.

*Also note that packs obtained on Tuesday, July 17th have been separated from the rest, as I firmly believe the rates are boosted on DLC day (as do my calculations lol!).

*Uncommon and Rare Gear not maxed before Earth DLC. Uncommon and Rare Character Cards, weapons and weapon modifications maxed before Earth DLC.

Premium Spectre Packs obtained from Friday, July 6th through Sunday, August 5th (Tuesday, July 17th excluded):

Total packs = 120
Misc. Packs = 78 (65%)
Uncommon Gear = 16 (13.33%)
Rare Gear = 22 (18.33%)
Ultra Rares = 7 (5.83%)
Total credits spent = 11,880,000

Premium Spectre Packs obtained on Tuesday, July 17th:

Total Packs = 50
Misc. Packs = 8 (16%)
Uncommon Gear = 9 (18%)
Rare Character Cards (Earth DLC) = 24 (48%)
Rare Weapon Mods. (Earth DLC) = 25 (50%)
Rare Weapons (Earth DLC) = 20 (40%)
Rare Gear = 22 (44%)
Ultra Rares = 9 (18%)
Total credits spent = 4,950,000

[TheGRITTY]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

...

I realize that so far the sample size is small - please be aware that this is an ongoing experiment and I will be regularly updating the list as I unlock more and more items.
...

Basically, the main cause for me doing this is that I think the level IV Consumable drop rate is too prevalent.  I realize that it should be the most prevalent of the unlocks, but the drop rate is, relative to the other unlocks, too high to allow for a steady stream of progression (which is needed in multiplayer to make playing worthwhile).

I've noticed that Rare Gear is more rare than Ultra Rare Weapons (which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever).

Check out "freemyheart" 's manifest:  http://social.biowar...lay=multiplayer --- Last I checked, his N7 rating is 9th highest in the WORLD.  He unlocked ALL of his Ultra Rare Weapons MAXED before his uncommon and rare gear.  There are many others who have this problem as well.  What does this say about the MP Store?

Some people claim that the random store "provides incentive to keep playing".   I adamantly disagree.  The random store provides nothing but frustration - and frustration for me and for a lot of people leads to giving up.   This drop rate problem leads mostly to credit hoarding than fun, speedruns and farming more than actual playing. They fixed the useless character card issue with usable lvl 4 consumables - but why does rare gear not have the same probability as rare characters or rare weapons?  Shouldn't rare = rare?

After unlocking every character, every uncommon and rare weapon up to X, and having every mod maxed, I think unlocking gear at a regular rate is reasonable.

Bioware - you need to change the rarity of gear and lvl IV consumables for people with everything but gear and UR's unlocked!   However, if the rarity is intentional, reclassify the gear!  "Ultra rare" gear makes a lot more sense than "uncommon" or "rare" at this point.

Thanks for posting this. It's great to see such detailed data. However, you must be careful with the conclusions you are drawing with these data. You say it yourself from the start: your sample size is way too small. Just because you get URs more often than Rs does, in no way, mean that those are their actual probabilities. Across the board, across all ME3 MP players, URs drop less frequently than Rs. It's strange to see drop patterns like yours, but it's also strange to see people win the lottery. 

You are also making an impossible logical leap by saying that the drop rates you've observed are the drop rates of these items/types of gear. In the grand scheme of this topic, your drop rates are one datum, with each individual player being his/her own datum. To get closer to the truth, other players must do as you have done and then we can all compile our data to reassess drop rates. 

This is a cool post and a great breakdown, but be careful with the conclusions you make. 

[Mgamerz]

If you had a google docs spreadsheet, and had some reputable people adding to it (say a team of 10 or so people), you could have more data. More Data always means better statistics... as long as the data is valid and relevant. [and something else but I forgot as I was typing it...]

[artificial-ignorance]

Undine.N wrote...

Here are my packs from Friday, July 6th through Sunday, August 5th:

*Note my stats. are calculated by miscelaneous packs versus "good cards", meaning a pack containing 2-3 lv. 3 consumables and 2 lv. 4 consumables gets counted as ONE miscelaneous pack, while a pack containing 2 pieces of gear gets counted as TWO pieces of gear. This alters percentage totals, causing drop rates to exceed 100% when added. This might be the way BioWare calculates drop-rates, which is why we get much less than we expect.

*Also note that packs obtained on Tuesday, July 17th have been separated from the rest, as I firmly believe the rates are boosted on DLC day (as do my calculations lol!).

*Uncommon and Rare Gear not maxed before Earth DLC. Uncommon and Rare Character Cards, weapons and weapon modifications maxed before Earth DLC.

Premium Spectre Packs obtained from Friday, July 6th through Sunday, August 5th (Tuesday, July 17th excluded):

Total packs = 120
Misc. Packs = 78 (65%)
Uncommon Gear = 16 (13.33%)
Rare Gear = 22 (18.33%)
Ultra Rares = 7 (5.83%)
Total credits spent = 11,880,000

Premium Spectre Packs obtained on Tuesday, July 17th:

Total Packs = 50
Misc. Packs = 8 (16%)
Uncommon Gear = 9 (18%)
Rare Character Cards (Earth DLC) = 24 (48%)
Rare Weapon Mods. (Earth DLC) = 25 (50%)
Rare Weapons (Earth DLC) = 20 (40%)
Rare Gear = 22 (44%)
Ultra Rares = 9 (18%)
Total credits spent = 4,950,000

hmm very interesting

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 07 août 2012 - 02:15 .

[artificial-ignorance]

TheGRITTY wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

...

I realize that so far the sample size is small - please be aware that this is an ongoing experiment and I will be regularly updating the list as I unlock more and more items.
...

Basically, the main cause for me doing this is that I think the level IV Consumable drop rate is too prevalent.  I realize that it should be the most prevalent of the unlocks, but the drop rate is, relative to the other unlocks, too high to allow for a steady stream of progression (which is needed in multiplayer to make playing worthwhile).

I've noticed that Rare Gear is more rare than Ultra Rare Weapons (which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever).

Check out "freemyheart" 's manifest:  http://social.biowar...lay=multiplayer --- Last I checked, his N7 rating is 9th highest in the WORLD.  He unlocked ALL of his Ultra Rare Weapons MAXED before his uncommon and rare gear.  There are many others who have this problem as well.  What does this say about the MP Store?

Some people claim that the random store "provides incentive to keep playing".   I adamantly disagree.  The random store provides nothing but frustration - and frustration for me and for a lot of people leads to giving up.   This drop rate problem leads mostly to credit hoarding than fun, speedruns and farming more than actual playing. They fixed the useless character card issue with usable lvl 4 consumables - but why does rare gear not have the same probability as rare characters or rare weapons?  Shouldn't rare = rare?

After unlocking every character, every uncommon and rare weapon up to X, and having every mod maxed, I think unlocking gear at a regular rate is reasonable.

Bioware - you need to change the rarity of gear and lvl IV consumables for people with everything but gear and UR's unlocked!   However, if the rarity is intentional, reclassify the gear!  "Ultra rare" gear makes a lot more sense than "uncommon" or "rare" at this point.

Thanks for posting this. It's great to see such detailed data. However, you must be careful with the conclusions you are drawing with these data. You say it yourself from the start: your sample size is way too small. Just because you get URs more often than Rs does, in no way, mean that those are their actual probabilities. Across the board, across all ME3 MP players, URs drop less frequently than Rs. It's strange to see drop patterns like yours, but it's also strange to see people win the lottery. 

You are also making an impossible logical leap by saying that the drop rates you've observed are the drop rates of these items/types of gear. In the grand scheme of this topic, your drop rates are one datum, with each individual player being his/her own datum. To get closer to the truth, other players must do as you have done and then we can all compile our data to reassess drop rates. 

This is a cool post and a great breakdown, but be careful with the conclusions you make. 

Thank you for your input - as I continue this ongoing record of my unlocks, I will change my observations to fit the data.  If at some point my Rare Gear drop % exceeds that of my Ultra Rare drop % (which I hope it does) - I will make modifications to my observations.

The main observation that I see never changing is the prevelency of LvLIV Consumables.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 06 août 2012 - 04:33 .

[artificial-ignorance]

Mgamerz wrote...

If you had a google docs spreadsheet, and had some reputable people adding to it (say a team of 10 or so people), you could have more data. More Data always means better statistics... as long as the data is valid and relevant. [and something else but I forgot as I was typing it...]

The problem is finding reputable people... perhaps I can recruit some and require that they submit a screenshot of every pack opening so that I can verify the data as true?

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 06 août 2012 - 04:39 .

[upinya slayin]

rare gear drops less often then UR weapons. thats kinda sad

[randomfoo]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Mgamerz wrote...

If you had a google docs spreadsheet, and had some reputable people adding to it (say a team of 10 or so people), you could have more data. More Data always means better statistics... as long as the data is valid and relevant. [and something else but I forgot as I was typing it...]

The problem is finding reputable people... perhaps I can recruit some and require that they submit a screenshot of every pack opening so that I can verify the data as true?

I think you're overthinking it.  If you, Undine.N and else would like to pool your existing data, just drop me a line and I'll share a copy of my GDocs spreadsheet w/ my data and my GApps scripts.

I store the pack type, each pack item (full-name), and autogenerate a timestamp (the timestamp isn't needed for just calculating statistics).

[nicethugbert]

You have to learn when to stop buying packs and walk away.

The store is not a store at all. It's a casino/torture device. It's a psycological contruct. The following is how I deal with it.

I get above average drop rate or I walk away. It's that simple. If the store ****s on me, if it fails to reward me, I fail to reward it. I walk away.

The concensus observed UR drop rate on PSPs is 9 to 11 percent. I am worth better than that. The proof is that I can just walk away and nothing can stop me. I aim for at least a 25% drop rate for URs and gear(just as rare as URs if not more so) in PSPs. If I don't get what I want, then the casino failed so I stop rewarding it with my credits.

25% drop rate is 1 in 4 packs. So, I buy in sets of 4. I stop buying after a bad set. 1 UR/Gear in 8 PSPs is 12.5% which is ****. It's become very easy to hold onto my credits until the store goes through a generosity streak for me. I've had great luck and little bad luck since I started doing this. I've had drop rates as high as 50% and in hind sight could have had higher if I had not bought the last few packs of those runs. But, my strategy still paid off. So, I remain on course.

I aim to save 1.2 mil credits because I have never seen a luck streak go beyond that. I have saved up to 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 10 mil credits in the past. So I have had some opportunity to watch the store's generosity or lack of.

Any credits beyond 1.2 mil, are my testing credits, in sets of 4 PSPs. Even if I'm sitting on a mountain of credits, I don't spend until I play enough matches to be able to buy 4 packs. So, if those 4 packs are garbage, my credits stash has not been diminished relative to when I decided to buy. I have to "work" for the credits before I spend them. They are "hard" earned. So, not to be spent lightly. Should a long generosity streak occur for me, I'm ready to reap it. So, it's worth protecting my credit stash.

The casino's algorithm is based on a RNG, no doubt. But, it has been observed many times to have random generosity streaks. What I do does not modify how the casino works. It works with the casino to get the most out of my credits. All I'm doing is avoiding dumping a ton of credits on a bad streak. My worst streak is no more than 4 packs now. Compare that to hording and getting nothing.

Oh, and my manifest is filling up now, since I started doing this, this month, and I've been playing since demo came out.  I've gotten about half my URs this month and the other half took months to acquire, yet I've been playing less.

Brian Posehn w/ Jamie Jasta The Gambler Kenny Rogers Cover

On a warm summer's eve
On a train bound for nowhere
I met up with the gambler
We were both too tired to sleep
So we took turns a-starin'
Out the window at the darkness
The boredom overtook us, and he began to speak

He said, "Son, I've made my life
Out of readin' people's faces
Knowin' what the cards were
By the way they held their eyes
So if you don't mind my sayin'
I can see you're out of aces
For a taste of your whiskey
I'll give you some advice"

So I handed him my bottle
And he drank down my last swallow
Then he bummed a cigarette
And asked me for a light
And the night got deathly quiet
And his faced lost all expression
He said, "If you're gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done

Now every gambler knows the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away
And knowin' what to keep
'Cause every hand's a winner
And every hand's a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep"

So when he finished speakin'
He turned back for the window
Crushed out his cigarette
And faded off to sleep then somewhere in the darkness
The gambler he broke even,
but in his final words
I found an ace that I could keep

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done

You've got to know when to hold 'em
(When to hold 'em)
Know when to fold 'em
(When to fold 'em)
Know when to walk away
know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done

You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done

Modifié par nicethugbert, 06 août 2012 - 06:20 .

[Mgamerz]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Mgamerz wrote...

If you had a google docs spreadsheet, and had some reputable people adding to it (say a team of 10 or so people), you could have more data. More Data always means better statistics... as long as the data is valid and relevant. [and something else but I forgot as I was typing it...]

The problem is finding reputable people... perhaps I can recruit some and require that they submit a screenshot of every pack opening so that I can verify the data as true?

If you make it require google sign-ins, you can keep track of who does what.

[longgamma]

The most logical solution would be to put a price on each weapon. Need a harrier? Pony up a million credits. Its a better way as I wont be maxing guns i dont even use and soend my credits on the stuff i need. Easier for EA as well as they can get to the pockets of impulsive gamers quicker. The store in its current form is broken. I only get level iv ammos in psps. Imagine them adding a level v ammo as more people start unlocking better gear.

[artificial-ignorance]

**UPDATE 1** - I have updated the list

I had a stroke of luck today - 2 rare gears in 2 PSPs that is unheard of.
Still, the overall % of rare gear and ultra rares are equal, which shouldn't be happening.

Noteworthy new unlockables include: Particle Rifle I; Engineering Kits III, and IV (UG); Martial Biotic Amp V (RG), and Juggernaut Shield II (RG).

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 06 août 2012 - 09:42 .

[NeedsMoreCowb3ll]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

**UPDATE** - I have updated the list

I had a stroke of luck today - 2 rare gears in 2 PSPs that is unheard of.
Still, the overall % of rare gear and ultra rares are equal, which shouldn't be happening.

Noteworthy new unlockables include: Particle Rifle I; Engineering Kits III, and IV (UG); Martial Biotic Amp V (RG), and Juggernaut Shield II (RG).

I've gotten 2 UR's in 2 psp's once. Best i've had was 2 UR's in one PSP though.

[Rokayt]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Rokayt wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Rokayt wrote...

Why not get the Veteran pack drop rates?

I will be focusing on SP and PSP's because I still need Ultra Rares.  And comparing URs to Rare Gear is one of the primary foci of this experiment.

Uncommon gears are generally superior.

So if you can find the best uncommon gear/credit rate, you would help the community out greatly.

hmm good point and interesting idea - I may do this at a later date.

However, up to this point, I have found that a larger sample pool may be needed.

Me, and my three other tag team mebers have unlocked one ultra rare in the past three days, however, we have all gotten about three rare gears in this period.

This sugests a deviance from the statistics tables you have shown.

Perhaps puling together a pool of several users will give a different result then what is shown here?

Edit: I could have extrordinary luck, I have unlocked as many UR's as the average person who has maxed out their rares has.

Modifié par Rokayt, 06 août 2012 - 08:05 .

[Sabina261187]

OP made a calc on my drops, here they are:

PSP in total:64
LVL IV Consumables: 58%
Rare Gear (RG): 39%
Ultra Rare Weapons: 2,4%

Pack Loss during disconnection:1
Credits total: 6,336,000

Mkay, so I did a little ROUGH calculating tonight... And REMEMBER, this is rough..
I havent played any bronze games since the demo, and only few silvers.. Mostly I am playing gold and platinum.. Since my money for my purchases mostly are superior from platinum games, and the difference is almost 1½ gold game, I have been calculating with GOLD with full credits, since I prob have made a lot more credits than what my calcs shows, and mostly I do gold speedruns when I play Gold and I have gained xperience from character cards too.. Therefore.. This is roughly estimated..


Level xp Cuml xp

L. 1 12,500 12,500 to reach L. 2
L. 2 25,000 37,500 to reach L. 3
L. 3 25,000 62,500 to reach L. 4
L. 4 37,500 100,000 to reach L. 5
L. 5 50,000 150,000 to reach L. 6
L. 6 50,000 200,000 to reach L. 7
L. 7 50,000 250,000 to reach L. 8
L. 8 62,500 312,500 to reach L. 9
L. 9 62,500 375,000 to reach L.10
L.10 62,500 437,500 to reach L.11
L.11 62,500 500,000 to reach L.12
L.12 125,000 625,000 to reach L.13
L.13 125,000 750,000 to reach L.14
L.14 125,000 875,000 to reach L.15
L.15 125,000 1,000,000 to reach L.16
L.16 250,000 1,250,000 to reach L.17
L.17 250,000 1,500,000 to reach L.18
L.18 500,000 2,000,000 to reach L.19
L.19 500,000 2,500,000 to reach L.20

2,500,000 xp from Level 1 to Level 20

I have promoted: 137 characters
137 x 2,500,000
XP in total gained: = 342,500,000


(Calculated from 10 gold games with a gain of 75.000 credits every game)
Avarage Gold XP: = 297,614 (rounded up)
Divided with total xp: 342,500,00/297,614
Gold games in total: = 1151 (rounded up)


Gold games to promote: 8,4 (rounded up)
I have promoted: 137 characters
8,4 X 137
Gold games in total: = 1151 (rounded up)


Highest money in gold: 75,000
Times total games: 1151
Total: = 86,325,000 mil.


Ultra rares in total: 28

Modifié par Sabina261187, 06 août 2012 - 08:37 .

[artificial-ignorance]

randomfoo wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Mgamerz wrote...

If you had a google docs spreadsheet, and had some reputable people adding to it (say a team of 10 or so people), you could have more data. More Data always means better statistics... as long as the data is valid and relevant. [and something else but I forgot as I was typing it...]

The problem is finding reputable people... perhaps I can recruit some and require that they submit a screenshot of every pack opening so that I can verify the data as true?

I think you're overthinking it.  If you, Undine.N and else would like to pool your existing data, just drop me a line and I'll share a copy of my GDocs spreadsheet w/ my data and my GApps scripts.

I store the pack type, each pack item (full-name), and autogenerate a timestamp (the timestamp isn't needed for just calculating statistics).

I am definitely interested in pooling data - after all, more data = better statistical accuracy.  I am, however, not at all familiar with GDocs - I've never used it. 

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 06 août 2012 - 09:16 .

[gyuuniku]

some of the most grind/farm heavy games out there thrive on people being miserable. the frustration factor does not contribute to people giving up as much as it does to people keep playing more out of misery in a gambling-addict similar kind of way. most people that i know that gave up on this game did it out of strength, to do something better with their lives, and not frustration. this doesn't hold true for everyone of course.

[CapitateGoose]

IMHO:
These statistics are useless.
1. They depend on what you have already unlocked.
2. They change frequently, based on "external factors" - (this is human interaction from BW to change priorities- just an assumption, not a proof)

That is probably why, from time to time, people report "incredble luck". It is like they hit a "happy hour", when they unlock long waited UR or gear one after the other.
I saw myself this "happy hour" at least twice:
1. Some time ago, I unlocked first 3 levels of Harrier and other URs within several PSPs.
2. A few days before Earth, there was a strike of Gear (uncommon and rare), so I maxed them out one after the other (the pre-Earth ones, not the new ones).

So my advice to everybody, keep looking for "happy hours", and maybe let other people know about your incredible luck.

[gyuuniku]

in my experience it seems "happy hour" is different for everyone, could be a time zone thing, but some of the people i play with are locals. we would have someone getting 3 URs out of 5 packs, and everyone else get zip.

so what i started doing is i keep my credits at 5,000,000. and i buy packs when i hit 5,500,000 and if i get more than 1 URs in that spree, i keep buying till my luck turns sour

[artificial-ignorance]

CapitateGoose wrote...

IMHO:
"These statistics are useless.
1. They depend on what you have already unlocked."

How else would you get statistics?

[Sabina261187]

CapitateGoose wrote...

IMHO:
These statistics are useless.
1. They depend on what you have already unlocked.
2. They change frequently, based on "external factors" - (this is human interaction from BW to change priorities- just an assumption, not a proof)

That is probably why, from time to time, people report "incredble luck". It is like they hit a "happy hour", when they unlock long waited UR or gear one after the other.
I saw myself this "happy hour" at least twice:
1. Some time ago, I unlocked first 3 levels of Harrier and other URs within several PSPs.
2. A few days before Earth, there was a strike of Gear (uncommon and rare), so I maxed them out one after the other (the pre-Earth ones, not the new ones).

So my advice to everybody, keep looking for "happy hours", and maybe let other people know about your incredible luck.

Sorry to say, but I disagree... 
First, I have EVERY rare maxed, all characters and gears (Dunno why the last wont show in my manifest though) 
And still.. take a look at my statistics... 

Look here at my friends manifest  
We were IN THE SAME games, we were in the same lobby.. We're both located in same timezone Europe.. We bought at the same time, for the same amount of money... Within the last week.. He got ALL his UR's maxed... I havent had an UR since the 20th last month.... Can you explain that then? Where was my happy HOURS, that made me sooo unhappy? 

Modifié par Sabina261187, 06 août 2012 - 09:23 .

[jerrmy12]

i feel the op's pain, but got a STUPID javilin 6, and indra5 in 1psp
wish it was 2 PR's....or typhoon's.......

[Boog_89]

What are the odds of getting 2 N7 weapons in 1 psp? I got the particle rifle III and typhoon

[artificial-ignorance]

Boog_89 wrote...

What are the odds of getting 2 N7 weapons in 1 psp? I got the particle rifle III and typhoon

extremely low.  I dont think anyone has data on that because of how rare it is.