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UR Drop Rate Experiment - SPs/PSPs/RPs/APs - Reckoning DLC Update


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#126
iblamesquids

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So I guess you won't be doing statistics on recruit and veteran packs? I don't have enought experience, weapon upgrades, weapon mods to buy Spectre and Premium Spectre Packs, where PSP's are out of the question for me (you can check out my manifest to prove that)! Could you do some data collection for RP and VPs for us noobs? Please?
My manifest link: http://social.biowar...lay=multiplayer

Modifié par iblamesquids, 08 août 2012 - 04:04 .


#127
iblamesquids

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If its not too much to ask

#128
artificial-ignorance

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iblamesquids wrote...

So I guess you won't be doing statistics on recruit and veteran packs? I don't have enought experience, weapon upgrades, weapon mods to buy Spectre and Premium Spectre Packs, where PSP's are out of the question for me (you can check out my manifest to prove that)! Could you do some data collection for RP and VPs for us noobs? Please?
My manifest link: http://social.biowar...lay=multiplayer


As I have unlocked all uncommon characters, weapons, and mods - the data would not be relevant for people that have not unlocked these.  The only viable option would be to check veteran pack uncommon gear drop rates, but it is semi-pointless for my current unlock status, as uncommon gear drops in SPs and PSPs.  Sorry.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 08 août 2012 - 08:49 .


#129
Danadenassis

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CapitateGoose wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

CapitateGoose wrote...

IMHO:
"These statistics are useless.
1. They depend on what you have already unlocked."


How else would you get statistics?:blink:


What I meant is you cannot estimate probability, if the conditions change after each unlock.
For example:
1. you start new, every pack is great, you get Rare weapons/Rare characters/UR at some rate.
2. you max out all characters, the rare character rate drops to 0
3. you max out rare weapons, the rare weapons rate drops to 0.
4. you max out your first UR - maybe the rate for that wepon only is replaced with L4 ammo.
5. you keep maxing out gear/weapons/mods - the rate for those drops, while L4 ammo rate rises.

In summary, your probabilities for future packs are very likely changing with each pack you open.
This assuming everything had an equal chance in the first place (50 SIs for one batarian unlock - I would not call it equal chances).


Are you sure about this?

I know LOTS  of gamers see various patterns in drop rates and spawns. The thing is that most developers doesn't make it that complicated.

Obviously you won't get characters if they are maxed (in the rare or ultrarare "spot").

Still, even if everything influenced everything are the numbers not "meaningless" because it DO show a statistic for what to expect and use that expectancy when evaluating if you want to join the rat-race or not.

#130
freemyheart

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Just spent 8,500,000 million credits.

That's roughly 36,000,000 since July 17. 37,000,000 if you factor in the Veteran Packs I've been buying between matches to max (255) out medigels/cobra missiles.

Before I spent the 8,500,000 I still needed THIRTY-ONE of the Earth DLC gear drops.

One would think that if you spend 36,000,000 credits, you would have all 55 of the so-called "Uncommon" and "Rare" Earth DLC Gear drops, right? Especially since there were 69 rare Earth DLC non-gear drops. And what is essentially two UR weapons. 89 for 89 when it comes to "Rare" (weapons/weapon mods/characters) or "Ultra-Rare" (Typhoon/Particle Rifle) Earth DLC non-Gear drops in the 28,000,000 credits spent before today's spending spree. And yeah, I have all of my UR weapons maxed, *rarely* use level IV consumables (much less the other worthless weapon/ammo/armor consumables).

My spending technique today was Vet, SP, PSP, VET, SP, PSP, etc. Not once did I receive an "Uncommon" or "Rare" gear in a Veteran Pack, even though I still needed TEN of the so-called "Uncommon" Earth DLC gears.

Pre-spending spree today: Here's what I had in the Earth DLC so-called "Uncommon" and "Rare" Gears after spending 28,000,000 credits since July 17:

So-called "Uncommon" Earth DLC Gears:
Thermal Clip Storage (2/5)
Adaptive War Amp (0/5)
Engineering Kit (3/5)
Densified Ammo (5/5)

So-called "Rare" Earth DLC Gears:
Combatives Upgrade (0/5)
Martial Biotic Amp (4/5)
Juggernaut Shield (4/5)
Shock Trooper Upgrade (1/5)
Guerrilla Upgrade (1/5)
Omni-Capacitors (2/5)
Barrage Upgrade (3/5)

Again, even though I had spent 28,000,000 credits before today's spending spree, I had yet to even unlock two of the Gears at all -- even though I had maxed the "Ultra-Rare" Typhoon & Particle Rifle. A joke, right? Did Bioware respond to this now 13-page thread even though there is  clearly something wrong? No.

After today's shopping spree, here's what I still need -- after spending 36,000,000 credits since July 17:

So-called "Uncommon" Earth DLC Gears:
Thermal Clip Storage (5/5)
Adaptive War Amp (5/5)
Engineering Kit (5/5)
Densified Ammo (5/5)

A bargain, right? I only needed 36,000,000 credits to max out the so-called "Uncommon" Earth DLC Gears!!!

So-called "Rare" Earth DLC Gears:
Combatives Upgrade (2/5)
Martial Biotic Amp (5/5)
Juggernaut Shield (4/5)
Shock Trooper Upgrade (4/5)
Guerrilla Upgrade (2/5)
Omni-Capacitors (4/5)
Barrage Upgrade (5/5)

No, you aren't misreading things. After spending 8,500,000 credits today, I received a total of ELEVEN so-called "Rare" Earth DLC gears. I still need NINE to max out so-called "Rare" Earth DLC Gears.

So maybe,  after I save up another -- what -- 7,000,000 credits, I can hope to get  the last nine? Woo hoo! 45,000,000 credits to have the Earth DLC Gears!!! What a bargain!!!

And yet, Bioware won't respond -- and there are people that still don't believe there's a problem when it comes to the drop rate/misclassification of so-called "Uncommon" and "Earth" DLC Gears.

Comedy.

Modifié par freemyheart, 08 août 2012 - 10:47 .


#131
Kirrahe Airlines CEO

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Pretty much describes what I've been getting for the past week - week and a half.

#132
freemyheart

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The Krauser wrote...

Pretty much describes what I've been getting for the past week - week and a half.


You, and the rest of the BSN community. And yet, no response from Bioware. At least they finally buffed the Ballistic Blades!!! Woo hoo! smh

Modifié par freemyheart, 08 août 2012 - 11:41 .


#133
artificial-ignorance

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freemyheart wrote...

After spending 8,500,000 credits today, I received a total of ELEVEN so-called "Rare" Earth DLC gears. I still need NINE to max out so-called "Rare" Earth DLC Gears.

So maybe,  after I save up another -- what -- 7,000,000 credits, I can hope to get  the last nine? Woo hoo! 45,000,000 credits to have the Earth DLC Gears!!! What a bargain!!!

And yet, Bioware won't respond -- and there are people that still don't believe there's a problem when it comes to the drop rate/misclassification of so-called "Uncommon" and "Earth" DLC Gears.

Comedy.


My god.  This is so depressing.  Bioware needs to comment on this broken store.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 09 août 2012 - 01:13 .


#134
RomanowRomanow

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my case is different I still need around 28 UR's but I maxed all gear, I did buy some veterans though which helped me get some silver and gold gear

#135
UKillMeLongTime

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odd today i've gotten gear in all but 2 packs and one PSP gave me two gears

I have a million saved up but am forcing myself to not keep spending on this run of luck or teh drops changed ?

I finally was getting the uncommons that were harder than a UR and the rares but today a fluke for me ?

#136
Mr Worms

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This needs to be done.
I stopped playing multiplayer after 6 premium specter packs i get nothing but ammo after unlocking most of the common rares

#137
Hackulator

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This is interesting and everything, but the truth is given the millions of packs that get bought this is statistically insignificant to the point of being totally meaningless.

edit: also complaints from people who have every ultra rare maxed make me lol

Modifié par Hackulator, 09 août 2012 - 12:53 .


#138
UKillMeLongTime

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just got another adaptive war amp 4 and i was stuck on 1 forever
wth i have had no luck but in the last 600k i've gotten 7 or 8 gears

decided to spend 100k and in a vet i got the adaptive 5 so i got that back to back 

Modifié par UKillMeLongTime, 09 août 2012 - 01:17 .


#139
freemyheart

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Hackulator wrote...

This is interesting and everything, but the truth is given the millions of packs that get bought this is statistically insignificant to the point of being totally meaningless.

edit: also complaints from people who have every ultra rare maxed make me lol


There are 69 non-gear drops for Rare items in the Earth DLC (weapons, weapon mods, characters)

You, Hackulator are 69 for 69.

There are 55 so-called "uncommon" and "rare" gear drops for the Earth DLC.

You, Hackulator are 17 for 55.

You, Hackulator have unlocked the only Ultra-Rare Earth DLC weapon, yet have not unlocked a so-called "Uncommon" Earth DLC gear "Densified Ammunition" or the so-called "Rare" gear "Juggernaut Shield.

So yeah, call it statistically insignificant or totally meaningless if you like.

#140
freemyheart

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RomanowRomanow wrote...

my case is different I still need around 28 UR's but I maxed all gear, I did buy some veterans though which helped me get some silver and gold gear


You are the rare case. Scratch that. The ultra-rare case.

#141
Emm_a

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I have a Harrier 7 and a Wraith 8, yet im missing A LOT of Uncommon and Rare gear. Not complaining, but it would be nice to have the gear that is SUPPOSED to be easy to obtain. If the store is so random, how come i've gotten a combination of Power Amplifier IV and Cyclonic Modulator IV or 2 Ammos in 18 straight PSPs? This is torture.

#142
Hackulator

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freemyheart wrote...

Hackulator wrote...

This is interesting and everything, but the truth is given the millions of packs that get bought this is statistically insignificant to the point of being totally meaningless.

edit: also complaints from people who have every ultra rare maxed make me lol


There are 69 non-gear drops for Rare items in the Earth DLC (weapons, weapon mods, characters)

You, Hackulator are 69 for 69.

There are 55 so-called "uncommon" and "rare" gear drops for the Earth DLC.

You, Hackulator are 17 for 55.

You, Hackulator have unlocked the only Ultra-Rare Earth DLC weapon, yet have not unlocked a so-called "Uncommon" Earth DLC gear "Densified Ammunition" or the so-called "Rare" gear "Juggernaut Shield.

So yeah, call it statistically insignificant or totally meaningless if you like.


You have every ultra rare maxed and you are still whining. Time to take a break?

#143
artificial-ignorance

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Emm_a wrote...

I have a Harrier 7 and a Wraith 8, yet im missing A LOT of Uncommon and Rare gear. Not complaining, but it would be nice to have the gear that is SUPPOSED to be easy to obtain. If the store is so random, how come i've gotten a combination of Power Amplifier IV and Cyclonic Modulator IV or 2 Ammos in 18 straight PSPs? This is torture.


I feel your pain man, I feel your pain... :(

#144
artificial-ignorance

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freemyheart wrote...

The Krauser wrote...

Pretty much describes what I've been getting for the past week - week and a half.


You, and the rest of the BSN community. And yet, no response from Bioware. At least they finally buffed the Ballistic Blades!!! Woo hoo! smh


Yes, they really need to comment on the state of the store.  It seems like they've been ignoring the issue...

#145
Sabina261187

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I now updated with my info on randomfoo's spreadsheet.... 3.03% UR drop rate so far... Weee..... o_O

#146
artificial-ignorance

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Sabina261187 wrote...

I now updated with my info on randomfoo's spreadsheet.... 3.03% UR drop rate so far... Weee..... o_O


That's wierd, I don't see your data... and 3%? yikes, thats gotta hurt.

#147
ShadowHound

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I appreciate the effort. Really I do but the math really means absolutely nothing to anyone else. Well maybe yo to and that's all that matters. Its a nice gesture though. The store can't be figured out with numbers and basic math. It would literally take a quantum mechanic physist or simply a Bioware Dev, to explain the probability of getting an UR upgrade. But they won't. Know why? Because they don't want us to figure it out. And why not? To keep us guessing/keep them entertained.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying what you've done and what you've figured is wrong. It seems to give other people here a little hope. I'm saying its seriously not helping me understand why I'm still getting lvl IV ammo rather than the weapon upgrades I need other than the fact that Bioware wrote a program with unspecified percentages.

They basicly don't have to tell us sh!t and it looks like they're more inclined to just ask us what we "think" about something and let us run with our imaginations.

#148
artificial-ignorance

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ShadowHound wrote...

I appreciate the effort. Really I do but the math really means absolutely nothing to anyone else. Well maybe yo to and that's all that matters. Its a nice gesture though. The store can't be figured out with numbers and basic math. It would literally take a quantum mechanic physist or simply a Bioware Dev, to explain the probability of getting an UR upgrade. But they won't. Know why? Because they don't want us to figure it out. And why not? To keep us guessing/keep them entertained.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying what you've done and what you've figured is wrong. It seems to give other people here a little hope. I'm saying its seriously not helping me understand why I'm still getting lvl IV ammo rather than the weapon upgrades I need other than the fact that Bioware wrote a program with unspecified percentages.

They basicly don't have to tell us sh!t and it looks like they're more inclined to just ask us what we "think" about something and let us run with our imaginations.


I see where you're coming from.  But I believe that with enough of these types of threads, Bioware might take notice and perhaps change the drop rates of the store.  I realize this may be futile - they are making lots of $$$ of microtransactions - but I think its still worth a shot.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 11 août 2012 - 12:29 .


#149
Sabina261187

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artificial-ignorance wrote...

Sabina261187 wrote...

I now updated with my info on randomfoo's spreadsheet.... 3.03% UR drop rate so far... Weee..... o_O


That's wierd, I don't see your data... and 3%? yikes, thats gotta hurt.


If I HAD the stats of the other packs, then it would have been lower because I haven hat ANYTHING since those packs the 20th last month.... Nothing... :crying: Do you see it now?

Modifié par Sabina261187, 11 août 2012 - 02:04 .


#150
artificial-ignorance

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Sabina261187 wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Sabina261187 wrote...

I now updated with my info on randomfoo's spreadsheet.... 3.03% UR drop rate so far... Weee..... o_O


That's wierd, I don't see your data... and 3%? yikes, thats gotta hurt.


If I HAD the stats of the other packs, then it would have been lower because I haven hat ANYTHING since those packs the 20th last month.... Nothing... :crying: Do you see it now?


Nope, still don't see it... And I still don't see you on origin...:blink:

Are you posting here:  docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ?

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 11 août 2012 - 03:30 .