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[artificial-ignorance]

**UPDATE 5** - I have updated the list

Got me some gears!!!

Notable unlocks this update include: Thermal Clip Storage IV (UG), Adaptive War Amp V (UG), Juggernaut Shield III and IV (RG), Densified Ammunition V (UG), and a lot of LvL4 consumables ().

Also, not listed but still relevant:
- Commendation Pack for Operation Olympus:  N7 Hurricane II
- Victory Pack for Operation Olympus:  Barrage Upgrade II (RG)

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 15 août 2012 - 09:33 .

[artificial-ignorance]

**UPDATE 6** - I have updated the list

I think Bioware changed the gear drop rate... I've noticed a trend in my unlocks.

Notable unlocks this update include: Thermal Clip Storage V (UG - Maxed Uncommon Gear), Omni-Capacitors II, III, and IV (RG), and Guerrilla Upgrade III (RG).

Spectre Packs have finally started giving out gear.  Prior to this update, the Rare Gear drop rate in SPs was 0%.

The LvLIV Consumable drop rate is still too high (90.8% in PSPs? C'MON! )

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 17 août 2012 - 03:35 .

[artificial-ignorance]

**UPDATE 7** - I have updated the list

Woah! 3 URs this update! ...and all from SP's?!? ...say whaaaaaaa
It looks like I've had more UR's out of SP's than PSPs. So much for the proclaimed greater UR drop rate in PSPs...

Notable unlocks this update include: Talon 8, Indra 8, Typhoon 2, Combatives Upgrade III (RG), Shock Trooper Upgrade IV (RG), Barrage Upgrade III (RG), and Juggernaut Shield V (RG).

[kingvenom41392]

 i agree this drop rate is terrible and i appreciate your data short of photo evidence theres not much more you can show here

[CmdrStJean]

This is a very informative thread. Sadly however it's been confirming what I've started to suspect for some time. Basically, if you're like me and on a good day you might get two Spectre Packs (at most) the reward system is not likely to ever benefit you in anyway. I really don't think it's likely I'll ever get a Valiant, Hornet, Harrier, Indra or anything else for that matter. Yes, I'll allow that it is possible I could potentially see one of these, at some point, but the odds are not in my favor. I've been stuck on a Phaeston V forever and most all of the packs I've pulled down recently are all consumables. I really just don't see the incentive here, there are so many things I want to try out and almost no chance of ever being able to do so. Was this Bioware's intent?

[bobby_paradise]

I can add some partial data. I write down on paper all the UR i found in PSP. I only buy PSP and start writing since the exact release of the Earth dlc.
PSP:231
UR:36
that's to say something like 15.58% drop rate.

Unfortunately i didn't write the gear drop rate, at this time i didn't realize it will become that important!

[MaxShine]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

PROBABILITIES
All Unlockables             ||    #     ||     Probability (Rounded)
LvL IV Consumables                181                  88.3%
Rare Gear (RG)                        16                   7.8%
Ultra Rare Weapons                 8                    3.9%

SP Unlockables
LvL IV Consumables                55                    85.9%
Rare Gear (RG)                         4                    6.0%
Ultra Rare Weapons                  5                    7.8%

PSP Unlockables
LvL IV Consumables                126                   89.4%
Rare Gear (RG)                         12                    8.5%
Ultra Rare Weapons                  3                    2.1%

#SP's = 64
#PSP's = 71
Total Credits Spent = 10,869,000

You would need at least(!) 1000 PSPs and 1000 SPs to make this meaningful. Moreover, you should be more precise what you just calculated. For the PSP you calculated the probability of one of the two rare cards in the pack dropping UR,RG or ammo.

Presenting the data the way you did can be misleading, because it looks like you are comparing PSPs and SPs, but actually you are comparing 64 rare cards to some other 141 rare cards...

The PSP drop rate for your (very small) data per pack would be:
PSP
Rare Gear (RG)                         (12/71)*100   = (rounded) 17.0%
Ultra Rare Weapons                 (3/71)*100     = (rounded)   4.2%
LvL IV Consumables                (100-17-4.2) = 78.8%

This imho is a better way of comparing it to the SP

Modifié par 100RenegadePoints, 20 août 2012 - 09:57 .

[TommyLove]

I recorded about 350ish PSP and I feel that my UR drop rate is roughly around 7~9%.
https://www.youtube....feature=mh_lolz

[artificial-ignorance]

100RenegadePoints wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

PROBABILITIES
All Unlockables             ||    #     ||     Probability (Rounded)
LvL IV Consumables                181                  88.3%
Rare Gear (RG)                        16                   7.8%
Ultra Rare Weapons                 8                    3.9%

SP Unlockables
LvL IV Consumables                55                    85.9%
Rare Gear (RG)                         4                    6.0%
Ultra Rare Weapons                  5                    7.8%

PSP Unlockables
LvL IV Consumables                126                   89.4%
Rare Gear (RG)                         12                    8.5%
Ultra Rare Weapons                  3                    2.1%

#SP's = 64
#PSP's = 71
Total Credits Spent = 10,869,000

You would need at least(!) 1000 PSPs and 1000 SPs to make this meaningful. Moreover, you should be more precise what you just calculated. For the PSP you calculated the probability of one of the two rare cards in the pack dropping UR,RG or ammo.

Presenting the data the way you did can be misleading, because it looks like you are comparing PSPs and SPs, but actually you are comparing 64 rare cards to some other 141 rare cards...

The PSP drop rate for your (very small) data per pack would be:
PSP
Rare Gear (RG)                         (12/71)*100   = (rounded) 17.0%
Ultra Rare Weapons                 (3/71)*100     = (rounded)   4.2%
LvL IV Consumables                (100-17-4.2) = 78.8%

This imho is a better way of comparing it to the SP

Shouldn't it just be about rare cards though? Since each has a chance of getting a UR?

This is why I did the probabilities for each rare card - since the RNG has a chance for either rare card to give a UR or Rare Gear.

Also, as I have said many times, this is a work in progress - the sample size will grow as I continue this experiment.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 20 août 2012 - 02:55 .

[artificial-ignorance]

TommyLove wrote...

I recorded about 350ish PSP and I feel that my UR drop rate is roughly around 7~9%.
https://www.youtube....feature=mh_lolz

Contact randomfoo  on BSN with this information - he has an online spreadsheet some people have been contributing to and we can really use more data like this.  Our goal is 6000 PSPs.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet:  docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 20 août 2012 - 02:59 .

[Gockey]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

**UPDATE 7** - I have updated the list

Woah! 3 URs this update! ...and all from SP's?!? ...say whaaaaaaa
It looks like I've had more UR's out of SP's than PSPs. So much for the proclaimed greater UR drop rate in PSPs...

Notable unlocks this update include: Talon 8, Indra 8, Typhoon 2, Combatives Upgrade III (RG), Shock Trooper Upgrade IV (RG), Barrage Upgrade III (RG), and Juggernaut Shield V (RG).

Thank you for this.  I keep dancing back and forth from Spectre to PSP.  As you can see from my mani, I'm actually doing really well for gear drops.  Not so hot comparatively for URs.

Off to buy more SP.

[MaxShine]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Shouldn't it just be about rare cards though? Since each has a chance of getting a UR?

This is why I did the probabilities for each rare card - since the RNG has a chance for either rare card to give a UR or Rare Gear.

I guess it depends on what you are trying to achieve with the statistics. If you just want to support or refute the assumption that a rare card drops an UR with a 5% probability, then everything is fine.

But the way you organized your date it looks like you want to compare PSPs and SP in terms of drop rate? In that case I think it would be more useful to the community to see the per pack drop rate.

You obviously have taken a lot of effort to collect this data, so to make it useful maybe it is a good idea to use this data to answer to most common question regarding which packs to buy.

I frequently see questions like 'what is better for rare gear SP or PSP?', 'what is better for uncommon gear SP or PSP?', 'what is better for ultra-rares SP or PSP?'... If you could use your data to answer these questions that would be great.

Modifié par 100RenegadePoints, 20 août 2012 - 03:26 .

[CmnDwnWrkn]

The PSP Ultra-Rare drop rate is making me sick to my stomach. The URs aren't even that great at this point.

Modifié par CmnDwnWrkn, 20 août 2012 - 03:33 .

[artificial-ignorance]

100RenegadePoints wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Shouldn't it just be about rare cards though? Since each has a chance of getting a UR?

This is why I did the probabilities for each rare card - since the RNG has a chance for either rare card to give a UR or Rare Gear.

I guess it depends on what you are trying to achieve with the statistics. If you just want to support or refute the assumption that a rare card drops an UR with a 5% probability, then everything is fine.

But the way you organized your date it looks like you want to compare PSPs and SP in terms of drop rate? In that case I think it would be more useful to the community to see the per pack drop rate.

You obviously have taken a lot of effort to collect this data, so to make it useful maybe it is a good idea to use this data to answer to most common question regarding which packs to buy.

I frequently see questions like 'what is better for rare gear SP or PSP?', 'what is better for uncommon gear SP or PSP?', 'what is better for ultra-rares SP or PSP?'... If you could use your data to answer these questions that would be great.

I think I'll just post both; the per rare card and the per pack.  Maybe that will be better.

[VII Revenant]

So, if I'm understanding this correctly, regular Spectre Packs seem to have given the experimenter the most Ultra Rare weapons?

I hate numbers. I just want to hit things with pretty weapons that come with a black card.

[Ryoyoung83]

This is a great post it makes me think. But I;ve been playing the MP for about a year and my biggest frustration is UR weapons!! I've had a saber I FOR 7 MONTHS!!!

[artificial-ignorance]

Ryoyoung83 wrote...

This is a great post it makes me think. But I;ve been playing the MP for about a year and my biggest frustration is UR weapons!! I've had a saber I FOR 7 MONTHS!!!

That's impressive! Seeing as how the game has been out for 6.

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 20 août 2012 - 04:13 .

[artificial-ignorance]

VII Revenant wrote...

So, if I'm understanding this correctly, regular Spectre Packs seem to have given the experimenter the most Ultra Rare weapons?

I hate numbers. I just want to hit things with pretty weapons that come with a black card.

So far yes, this is true.  I've had a total of 5 URs in 64 SPs and 3 in 71 PSPs.
After having spent 10.8 million, I've recieved 8 URs.

Sorry, forgot you hated numbers

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 20 août 2012 - 04:16 .

[VII Revenant]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

VII Revenant wrote...

So, if I'm understanding this correctly, regular Spectre Packs seem to have given the experimenter the most Ultra Rare weapons?

I hate numbers. I just want to hit things with pretty weapons that come with a black card.

So far yes, this is true.  I've had a total of 5 URs in 64 SPs and 3 in 71 PSPs.
After having spent 10.8 million, I've recieved 8 URs.

Sorry, forgot you hated numbers

Most Krogan do, unless it's a kill streak or the last kill of the round. Then we care a lot.

but this definitely helps in my purchasing decisions for the future. I was having horrible luck with PSPs, so in the interest of hopefully seeing more rewards in a shorter timeframe, I'm going to take it down a notch.

[Sabina261187]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Ryoyoung83 wrote...

This is a great post it makes me think. But I;ve been playing the MP for about a year and my biggest frustration is UR weapons!! I've had a saber I FOR 7 MONTHS!!!

That's impressive! Seeing as how the game has been out for 6.

I LOL'd! Hahahahahaha..... 

Btw, I have the past week had 4 UR's i ordinary SP's, but NONE in any of my PSP's... I'm done buying the PSP's... 
Take that in consideration, the latest UR drop I had before last week was the 20th last month.. 

[artificial-ignorance]

Sabina261187 wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

Ryoyoung83 wrote...

This is a great post it makes me think. But I;ve been playing the MP for about a year and my biggest frustration is UR weapons!! I've had a saber I FOR 7 MONTHS!!!

That's impressive! Seeing as how the game has been out for 6.

I LOL'd! Hahahahahaha..... 

Btw, I have the past week had 4 UR's i ordinary SP's, but NONE in any of my PSP's... I'm done buying the PSP's... 
Take that in consideration, the latest UR drop I had before last week was the 20th last month.. 

I'm glad you're finally getting some URs Sabina!

[Learn To Love Yourself]

artificial-ignorance wrote...

100RenegadePoints wrote...

artificial-ignorance wrote...

PROBABILITIES
All Unlockables             ||    #     ||     Probability (Rounded)
LvL IV Consumables                181                  88.3%
Rare Gear (RG)                        16                   7.8%
Ultra Rare Weapons                 8                    3.9%

SP Unlockables
LvL IV Consumables                55                    85.9%
Rare Gear (RG)                         4                    6.0%
Ultra Rare Weapons                  5                    7.8%

PSP Unlockables
LvL IV Consumables                126                   89.4%
Rare Gear (RG)                         12                    8.5%
Ultra Rare Weapons                  3                    2.1%

#SP's = 64
#PSP's = 71
Total Credits Spent = 10,869,000

You would need at least(!) 1000 PSPs and 1000 SPs to make this meaningful. Moreover, you should be more precise what you just calculated. For the PSP you calculated the probability of one of the two rare cards in the pack dropping UR,RG or ammo.

Presenting the data the way you did can be misleading, because it looks like you are comparing PSPs and SPs, but actually you are comparing 64 rare cards to some other 141 rare cards...

The PSP drop rate for your (very small) data per pack would be:
PSP
Rare Gear (RG)                         (12/71)*100   = (rounded) 17.0%
Ultra Rare Weapons                 (3/71)*100     = (rounded)   4.2%
LvL IV Consumables                (100-17-4.2) = 78.8%

This imho is a better way of comparing it to the SP

Shouldn't it just be about rare cards though? Since each has a chance of getting a UR?

This is why I did the probabilities for each rare card - since the RNG has a chance for either rare card to give a UR or Rare Gear.

Also, as I have said many times, this is a work in progress - the sample size will grow as I continue this experiment.

I agree with finding a ration per rare card.  You are, in this way, showing what a disadvantage it may potentially be to buy PSPs.  You are supposed to be getting twice the chance per pack, so the percentages should be the same if you are looking at just Gold Cards.  However, I have also noticed that I get more URs in SPs, as well as it being a more economical way of getting Gear and Equipment.

[artificial-ignorance]

**UPDATE 8** - I have updated the list

I think Bioware has changed the store drop rates with these "server maintenance" sessions they've been having...

Notable unlocks this update include: M-99 Saber III, N7 Typhoon III, Particle Rifle II, Guerrilla Upgrade IV (RG), Omni-Capacitors V (RG), Shock Trooper Upgrade V (RG), Combatives Upgrade IV (RG), and Barrage Upgrade IV (RG).

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 22 août 2012 - 11:48 .

[artificial-ignorance]

**UPDATE 9** - I have updated the list

All gear has finally been maxed... 14 million credits later.  I'm almost positive BioWare recently changed the drop rates for the Earth gear.

Notable unlocks this update include:  Barrage Upgrade V (RG), Guerrilla Upgrade V (RG), and Combatives Upgrade V (RG).

Not sure what to do now - I guess I can continue with UR drops...

Modifié par artificial-ignorance, 24 août 2012 - 05:17 .

[artificial-ignorance]

**UPDATE 10** - I have updated the list

Been a while since I've updated the list.  Since I've maxed out the Earth Gear, I will from now on be comparing the LvLIV Consumable drop rate with the UR drop rate (until a new MP DLC comes out that is).

Notable unlocks this update include:  Saber IV, Cerberus Harrier IV and V, and Wraith VI.