Fast Jimmy wrote...
I really don't think that we've ever seen a time like this in the history of gaming - where big developers are viewed as being with little confidence by consumers to not be viewed as anything other than cash sacks, while smaller developers as furnished by Kickstarer are being thrown insane amounts of money on little more than game concepts.
Not to say AAA developers aren't staffed by people passionate about games or that small developers on Kickstarer aren't trying to make money. But I do not think the industry has seen anything even remotely like what we are experiencing today, of such a deep divide of large developers pursuing practices so widely disliked, while small developers are so strong supported (in Botha. Figurative and literal sense) by fans.
I'm not sure how it will all pan out, or which side will emerge out the other end better, but it is very interesting to see. To get a little more on topic, an all-online experience may be the future of gaming, with everything linked into social networking and multi-player involvement, where I will be playing a version of the game on my phone when I'm away from my home, then back to the main game when I get back home.
It sounds ludicrous and a shameless ploy for money... and might result in more egg on the face of the industry than there already currently is... but who knows? Maybe the things we fear and ridicule may wind up being an experience that is vastly different and much more enjoyable than we anticipate.
First, I'd like to compliment you (And Greengorgon) on good posts!
We actually can see how this pans out. Using your post and Greengorgons as the basis for my following arguement...
Consumers of a product crave some degree of variety. A great example is the Reality Show craze. Oversaturation of one type of entertainment product results in *extremely* rapid drops in consumers. One season everyone's watching every reality show out there, the next season most of them can't get anyone to watch. It's because people don't want the same entertainment experience day after day.
Further, overabundant sequels will drive consumers away. Take the Friday the 13th series, or the Nightmare on Elmstreet series, they have a peak, and then a drop off, ending up at a point where no one is interested.
Those two events are where we're at. We have very little variety, and overabundant sequels. We've hit the point where just being a Shooter isn't enough, being a good shooter isn't even enough, you have to be a really great shooter to sell. Because people are getting tired of it.
Gamers are fatigued, and Publishers can't sell their poorly designed titles anymore. So Publishers are trying to hide their dropping revenues from Shareholders by implementing initiatives like Day 1 DLC and Online Passes, because every time they sell one of those for $10, they can pretend like they're not losing customers at rapid rates, because that $10 is roughly what they would've made if the guy who didn't buy their game had purchased a copy.
So right now, we're in this murky area where Publishers are alienating their customers through poorly designed titles, little variety, and endless sequels. But, since there's an enourmous installed base, they can kind of hide it by milking the decreasing number of customers for more money.
In the next 12 - 18 months, we'll see the next Gaming Crash, and it'll happen incredibly fast.
What's going to happen is this...
First, Games sell consoles. A console without great games isn't something that can sell.
MS and Sony will release new consoles in the next 12-18 months. The launch titles will largely be made up of the same sequels and limited variety as the current releases. The fatigued gamers will take a wait-and-see approach, as they're not willing to buy these games now, they're definitely not paying $500 to buy the same games.
The core gamers are split, with some significant number of them alienated by revenue initiatives that will be present in the next generation as well. So the consoles will sell slowly, only to the most dedicated console Gamers.
Publishers will have spent tens or hundreds of millions on these next generation titles, and be unable to recover their expenses, as the player base will be slow to grow. They'll have next generation titles in development, not existing generation titles, and so be heavily invested in the platform's success.
Publishers will have no time to switch direction, they'll try to retool the titles in their pipelines to PC games, but quality and lack of creativity will keep them from selling, especially in the face of innovative Kickstarted titles.
In ~2 years, EA, THQ, Bethesda(Zenimax) and Ubisoft will be bankrupt. Capcom will be Japan focused and much smaller. Activision will be much smaller. Microsoft will refocus it's efforts on adapting the PC into a "Whole house" solution capable of accomidating Console-like experiences on the TV as well as desktop experiences, with Windows 9. Sony will abandon the hardware market and focus on delivering software. Today's Kickstarters will be tomorrow's great developers.
There's really very little that can avoid this outcome now. Because of development time restrictions, the the Publishers ignoring what Gamers are trying to tell them about their business practices, we're headed Titanic style into this outcome.
Modifié par Gatt9, 29 septembre 2012 - 01:59 .