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Operation VIGILANCE Weekend Operation FAILED


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#226
Nasulprak

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The clock up top says 128 hours remaining.
128 / 24 = 5 1/3 days.
Where does "You may claim it in game for up to one week" take effect?

Modifié par Nasulprak, 12 septembre 2012 - 10:15 .


#227
Tinned Bread

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Gotta wait for a response within 48 hours... :( *Sniffle*

#228
Aaron Wolfe

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N7 Hurricane I

#229
Nivekwons

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I did this a couple times on bronze without using anything or having enhancements equipped too and it said I didn't qualify...

#230
brian_breed

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DocDAM wrote...

brian_breed wrote...

You guys are missing the point in the quoted complaint. Since objectives are randomized, we can have no direct influence on the outcome of the event.


No, I don't think we are missing the point.  You COULD directly influence the outcome by PLAYING MORE.  See my other post.  The sample set was so large that the randomness was removed (unless it wasn't truly random).  The primary things at play were:
(1) How many missions Bioware assumed we would have to play to achieve the goal
(2) How many we did play

We missed by EIGHT PERCENT.  If we all played 8% more games (9% to be safe), mission success!


"The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913), and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely."

Modifié par brian_breed, 12 septembre 2012 - 11:25 .


#231
CasinoReborn

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I thought we would have done this one we have done really well on the last few we just need to work harder next time.

#232
tardis_type_40

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Just used the help option to try and get my pack, because I know I qualified: my sister and I played multiple Bronze matches together and neither of us used consumables. Granted, she booted up on Monday and her entire online profile had been reset to naught, which she's still furious about.

#233
SeeNoEvilHearNoEvil

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We would have easily made it, were it not for loads of players that singled because they didn't trust in teamwork. If these dudes would have had some faith, they would have saved a lot of time, could have each played two or three more matches and I bet it would have been fine! I had time and played a lot this weekend, but none of these were solo runs and I still got a pack...

I hope the punishment for the next operation is something like "get extracted on silver with a character beneath level 6"... it is all about teamwork!

#234
lonetrooper269

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 Have landed more escort waves (6) in 4 matches tonight than in the 14 I played during the weekend. Random draw I suppose?
Comm pack included valiant III to add to crusader III, eagle III and hurricane I. Guess which I use the most? Yep, the hurricane.
Still love playing ME3mp, especially during events.:)
Could we have a new equipment pack that gives a higher chance of an ultra rare that can only be bought with (a large amount of) earned credits? 

#235
earthbound30

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 i finished multiple matches where no one in the party used any consumables on multiple difficulties this weekend and still get nothing... no surprise the 250k escort failed considering out of the 2 dozen or so matches i played i saw only 3 escorts. looking forward to borderlands 2 where time and effort are rewarded accordingly, no more countless wasted hours and millions upon millions of credits spent on ammo and consumables you dont even need. shame on you bioware, you repeatedly sh*t on your fan base without hesitation. we pay your bills and make your business possible kudos on filing into the ranks of all the other greedy devolopers that are ruining this industry. this will be the last bioware game i ever purchase, way to kill a good thing you bastards.

#236
Datdude1970

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brian_breed wrote...

DocDAM wrote...

brian_breed wrote...

You guys are missing the point in the quoted complaint. Since objectives are randomized, we can have no direct influence on the outcome of the event.


No, I don't think we are missing the point.  You COULD directly influence the outcome by PLAYING MORE.  See my other post.  The sample set was so large that the randomness was removed (unless it wasn't truly random).  The primary things at play were:
(1) How many missions Bioware assumed we would have to play to achieve the goal
(2) How many we did play

We missed by EIGHT PERCENT.  If we all played 8% more games (9% to be safe), mission success!



"The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913), and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely."




The problem with this or any other explanation is that we just don't know. This point is irrelevant because you do not have access to the data to see "if deviations from expected behavior are occurring", to what extent and in what frequency. Therefore, outside of an arithmetic anomaly or scripting, which no one who would admit it has proof of, we fell short by a relatively small number. Sure if we all knew we were that close we would have skipped football or worked in a few more matches somewhere...

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#237
Datdude1970

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Woo Hoo - Valiant III

#238
DocDAM

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brian_breed wrote...

"The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913), and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely."


Huh? .  I (nor has anyone else I recall) said anything along the lines of
"well, since I've been getting less than 20%, I'm due for a hot streak".  (What we derisively called "the due theory" in my poker playing days)

All I said was that if we missed by 8%, it is logical, AND statistical, that another ~8% games played would get you there.  In a VERY LARGE # of trials, this is the case.

Now who is missing the point?

PS: Crusader III.  Damn, I was due for a Hurricane III :P

Modifié par DocDAM, 13 septembre 2012 - 02:07 .


#239
Urdnot_Bucdawg

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Datdude1970 wrote...

Woo Hoo - Valiant III


I got a rock ...:crying:

#240
Blue 007

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Urdnot_Bucdawg wrote...

Datdude1970 wrote...

Woo Hoo - Valiant III


I got a rock ...:crying:


I got a rock rock.... "EA servers are unavailable".... :huh: Maybe I'll get my pack tomorrow
Turian Rebel Out. 

#241
cursemarkedkyuubi

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if we failed y is there a reward pack counter on the top like we succeeded? so did we REALLY succeed or what?

#242
Datdude1970

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cursemarkedkyuubi wrote...

if we failed y is there a reward pack counter on the top like we succeeded? so did we REALLY succeed or what?


We failed the allied goal, but most folks on this forum probably got the squad goal, so commendation packs only.

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#243
ManUnderMask

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cursemarkedkyuubi wrote...

if we failed y is there a reward pack counter on the top like we succeeded? so did we REALLY succeed or what?


You can fail the overall mission objective but still get the squad objective.

#244
Asari Goddess

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Well we might fail but atleast some of us got the squad goal done also i got a huricane im soo happy. I think its unfair that on the operaction we didnt get a lot of escort missions. If they can make banshees apeer in a geth and a cerberous match they can do the same thing with the escort missions

#245
brian_breed

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DocDAM wrote...

brian_breed wrote...

"The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913), and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely."


Huh? .  I (nor has anyone else I recall) said anything along the lines of
"well, since I've been getting less than 20%, I'm due for a hot streak".  (What we derisively called "the due theory" in my poker playing days)

All I said was that if we missed by 8%, it is logical, AND statistical, that another ~8% games played would get you there.  In a VERY LARGE # of trials, this is the case.

Now who is missing the point?

PS: Crusader III.  Damn, I was due for a Hurricane III :P


Each objective round in each mission has a 1 in 5 chance of providing an escort mission. Those odds do not accrue. Why are you contending that an additional 8% of matches would yield the necessary number of escort missions? 

#246
XTR3M3

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valiant IV
the victory packs suck for me anyway. the commendation packs are the only ones that seem to give me N7 stuff.

#247
Sloanius

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Got another N7 Eagle! The past 4 operations that is what I have gotten. WTF? Why not a better Valiant? Or Hurricane? Something I will actually use. Heavy pistols are stupid. Well this is probably the last weekend I play with Borderlands 2 and Assassins Creed 3 just around the corner....

#248
RaidSmith

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LOL some how we let the universe down

#249
_Ai_

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earthbound30 wrote...

 i finished multiple matches where no one in the party used any consumables on multiple difficulties this weekend and still get nothing... no surprise the 250k escort failed considering out of the 2 dozen or so matches i played i saw only 3 escorts. looking forward to borderlands 2 where time and effort are rewarded accordingly, no more countless wasted hours and millions upon millions of credits spent on ammo and consumables you dont even need. shame on you bioware, you repeatedly sh*t on your fan base without hesitation. we pay your bills and make your business possible kudos on filing into the ranks of all the other greedy devolopers that are ruining this industry. this will be the last bioware game i ever purchase, way to kill a good thing you bastards.


agree, this is the way it is... too bad that the money ovewhelmed their minds...

still got no comm pack...:sick:

Modifié par _Ai_, 13 septembre 2012 - 05:37 .


#250
SteelerWayne

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Got an N7 Crusader upgrade