115 réponses à ce sujet

[kormesios]

Asante81 wrote...
I don't think Loghain was involved in this. Loghain did not betray Cailan to claim the throne. He betrayed Cailan to prevent Orlais walking straight through Ferelden with an army of Chevalier and Grey Wardens. As misguided as it was, I think Loghain suffered from a severe case of paranoia and misjudgement.

That is not consistent with the other evidence.  There is universal horror at Howe's act--it's simply not going to stand if the king lives.  Howe would've needed some sort of guarantee.

If you remember he DID try to persuade Cailan several times NOT to fight alongside the Wardens. If he had planned to get him killed, would he have done that? I doubt it. And if he didn't plan this ahead, would it make sense to get rid of the Couslands? Not really...

But he did plan it ahead.  There's no doubt--he poisoned Eamon, and negotiated with the bllod mages of the circle.  These are strategic equivalents of having the Couslands slaughtered--remove opponents, replace them with allies.  And all needed to be set in motion before Ostagar.

If, for some reason, he hadn't been able to get Cailan killed in battle, he would have needed to manage it some other way.

[Asante81]

I agree on poisoning Eamon, but that wasn't to prevent him from calling a landsmeet, that was to keep him away from the battlefield... to keep him away from having more influence over Cailan than he did. I bet he feared Eamon would have enough power to let the Orlesians in. Without Eamon, he would have to face ONE, instead of two. And Cailan didn't seem to be particularly strong-willed. But Eamon was.



Don't you remember that Howe told Loghain something about the Couslands betraying the king? It's not so hard to believe he prepared some nice evidence to present to the king...



Loghain's mainly driven by his hatred/fear of Orlesians. Which is sort of understandable if you know his history. All he does is centered around saving Ferelden from the Orlesians.

[kormesios]

Asante81 wrote...
I don't think this indicates at him trying to get rid of Cailan. It only shows that he was trying to get a directer influence on the circle. Most likely he didn't like Irving's point of views. He needed a mage he could trust. One who wouldn't call the Orlesian circle for help.

No.  The offer as explained by Uldred was: We support Loghain for the throne, he frees us from the Chantry. 

This deal doesn't make sense except as treachery.  Uldred gets *nothing* if Loghain doesn't become ruler--otherwise the tower is still a Chantry prison (from Uldred's point of view).

What I would find more interesting is: did Loghain know about Uldred being an abomination and his plans?

Uldred wasn't an abomination until after Ostagar.  It'd be reasonable to assume Loghain knew he was a blood mage, though (seeing as how he would deal with Jowan as well.)

[Asante81]

kormesios wrote...

No.  The offer as explained by Uldred was: We support Loghain for the throne, he frees us from the Chantry. 

Geez... I need to do that Uldred conversation again. But did he say this was before or after Ostagar?
I still think all Loghain did was keeping people away from Ostagar who would have influence on Cailans decisions concerning Orlesians.

[bas273]

Here's what I think:



Loghain knew they could not win this battle. Have you seen the look on Cailan's face right at the start of the battle? Even he was frightened. These were not simple stragglers, it was a whole army of Darkspawn.

Even if Loghain would flank them I doubt they would've been able to win the battle. They were simply outnumbered.

Loghain feared that without an army the Orlesians would take over Ferelden, so he quit the field. He didn't want Cailan dead because he needed Cailan to unite Ferelden.

And perhaps he still believed there was no Archdemon behind all this.



Think of what Bann Teagan said. "Did he also do what was best for your husband?"

Loghain could've flanked the Darkspawn, saved King Cailan and Duncan and then retreated back to Denerim.

[kormesios]

Asante81 wrote...
Geez... I need to do that Uldred conversation again. But did he say this was before or after Ostagar?

The information comes from Niall, in the fade.  He recounts the meeting in the tower when things went south.  It was going well, until the mages returning from Ostagar revealed Loghain's treachery.

To work this timing out, everything would've needed to be negotiated before the battle, if negotiations happened afterwards obviously the mages would have been back long before.

[from your previous post .  .  . ]
Don't you remember that Howe told Loghain something about
the Couslands betraying the king? It's not so hard to believe he
prepared some nice evidence to present to the king...

It would have been transparently weak evidence, even if neither child had survived.  But more importantly it wouldn't have automatically resulted in Highever going to Howe's posession (at least in most medieval systems).   Despite his family claim.  It's the sort of treachery that only makes sense if the king is on your side--either the current one, or the next one.

Also, why is Howe in Loghain's confidence after the battle, if they weren't plotting together beforehand?  It doesn't make sense--you wouldn't admit to a man like Howe that you betrayed the king unless you needed help before you did it.

I still think all Loghain did was keeping people away from Ostagar who would have influence on Cailans decisions concerning Orlesians.

Except all this would have been suicidal if he wasn't planning to kill Cailan.  You don't commit treason against the king half-way; it's in for a penny, in for a pound.

He was setting all these things up to eliminate opposition and shore up support.  Each one--the Eamon poisoning (proven), the blood mage negotiations (proven) and the conspiracy with Howe (presumed)--is enough to get him executed on its own.  And, by their nature, they aren't secret, long term plots; he was going for finality, not subtlety.  They are being executed at the exact right moment, and would be very likely to be detected if they didn't coincide with the king's death.

Modifié par kormesios, 28 décembre 2009 - 08:28 .

[Riot Inducer]

Asante81 wrote...
I guess that was Arl Howe taking the best chance he could get to finally satisfy his greed. The Howes wanted to get their hands on the teyrnir of Highever for a while if I remember right. Was something the old mentor was telling.
Apparently it wasn't enough for him to get his son/daughter married to the second born. This would have meant the second born Cousland would have become Arl/essa of Amaranthine and not his son/daughter Teyrn/a of Highever, which brought him next to nothing.
He couldn't assault the castle with all forces still in it. And when was the last time the Couslands went to battle with all their men while there was a chance to take Howes men there without seeming suspicious?
It was his only chance for this. Sending Bryce's men off earlier, keeping all but one family member in castle with the clever excuse of a delay.
I don't think Loghain was involved in this. Loghain did not betray Cailan to claim the throne. He betrayed Cailan to prevent Orlais walking straight through Ferelden with an army of Chevalier and Grey Wardens. As misguided as it was, I think Loghain suffered from a severe case of paranoia and misjudgement. If you remember he DID try to persuade Cailan several times NOT to fight alongside the Wardens. If he had planned to get him killed, would he have done that? I doubt it. And if he didn't plan this ahead, would it make sense to get rid of the Couslands? Not really...

I have to disagree on this, Howe's killing of the Couslands was far to bold and had far to many holes in it for Howe to be acting alone. For one Howe himself is not a particularly well liked noble, no matter the evidence Howe could have conjured up he would have one hell of a time explaining his usurping a very well respected noble house.  Additionally there is one very very glaring flaw in Howe's plan, he waited until the majority of the Cousland's forces had marched to Ostagar to strike, and while a good tactical choice this would have presented a very very big strategic problem had victory been achieved at Ostagar. You see Fergus was at the head of that considerable force, and even if Howe somehow managed to convince the other nobles to not string him up for taking over Highever, Fergus would have likely retaken the estate with his force and killed Howe if for vengence alone. 

The only logical reason for Howe's attack was if he could guarantee that higher authorities wouldn't condemn him for it and that Fergus and the rest of the Cousland forces would not return from Ostagar; Loghain planning his betrayal of the king (and his army) beforehand is the only way these two variables in Howe's plan could be accounted for. 

[JaylaClark]

I think this thread often overlooks one important thing -- there's scads of evidence that Loghain, well, is a lying scheming ****.

What I mean is, everyone who says that Loghain quit the field of battle because he genuinely felt that the battle was lost, overlooks the fact, that he clearly has been scheming for the throne all this time.  (I choose not to mention said evidence for those who came here before they hit Redcliffe.)  So he most likely drew up the plans specifically to make it likely that the main forces would be decimated without his own.

I seriously doubt it was because he genuinely believed his forces were doomed.  If that was the case, he'd have no chance against them without the troops lost at Ostagar, right?  No, he thought this was an easy score and a chance to get ahead, or put someone competent (himself) on the throne.  We can debate what he intended and how noble his intentions were, but I think it's foolish to take his word that his plan would not have worked even with his involvement when he was the prime beneficiary.

EDIT -- I see others have chimed in with my thoughts AND the details, so yes, I am referring to setting up Eamon with the poisoner.  And I also never quite thought of how Arl Howe's actions were more than a bit risky, even if Duncan thought his plan was to make up some justification after killing Mom and Dad and me -- er, I mean, the Couslands.

Modifié par JaylaClark, 28 décembre 2009 - 09:26 .

[bas273]

Why would Loghain want the throne? He tells Cailan not to fight in the frontlines and his daughter Anora is already Queen.
I think he simply wants the best for Ferelden.

The only logical reason for Howe's attack was if he could guarantee that higher authorities wouldn't condemn him for it and that Fergus and the rest of the Cousland forces would not return from Ostagar; Loghain planning his betrayal of the king (and his army) beforehand is the only way these two variables in Howe's plan could be accounted for.

Interesting theory. But I don't think Loghain had planned his betrayal. He has been arguing with King Cailan for days. He doesn't want King Cailan to die.
And if he wanted Fergus dead, he would never allow him to be sent on a scouting mission. Fergus could easily escape and travel to Redcliffe for aid.

Modifié par bas273, 28 décembre 2009 - 09:46 .

[RSTORM50]

The idea of this battle plan was for the tower to lit at a specific time at which time Loghain flanks with his forces and bottles up the horde. What no one on the front line or Loghain knew was the tower had been taken by the darkspawn thus preventing the wardens from just strolling up to the beacon and lighting it.



It's possible the soldier who tells the wardens the tower had been taken made it bak to Cailan to advise him of this point. But even then, there's no way word can be gotten to Loghain that the plan did not survive the enemy. (And there was no backup plan in place.)



Since you have to fight your way to, and through the tower the signal to light it was missed and when you finally get there the only option is to carry out your mission late or not.



From a strategic standpoint, the move for Loghain to make when the beacon was so late to be lit was to retreat. If the signal was missed the optimum time to execute the flanking action had passed and you're committing your forces to a battle where the plan had already gone awry. And a good military commander would not commit his forces into that sort of situation.



If i'm Loghain and seeing it take so long for the beacon to be lit, my distrust of the Grey Wardens has been validated by that action. (He has no way of knowing the darkspawn have taken the tower.)



This is a battle Loghain didn't want to fight and he made that clear. I agree with Bas273 in saying Loghain did not plan to betray the king, allthough his actions certainly looked that way. Howe influences Loghain in a lot of ways and Loghain is no politician nor is he a diplomat, he's a soldier.

[SarEnyaDor]

Loghain can't know it is late being lit. I repeat - Loghain cannot know it is late being lit!

The tower being lit *IS* the signal, they weren't going to light it at 3:35 pm on their synchchronized watches as a way to light the battlefield for Loghain's troops. Ser Cautherine was about to order the men to march as the beacon went up and Loghain told her to sound the retreat, surprising her, he grabbed her arm, ordered her roughly to do it when she protested "But the King..." because it was precisely the plan to charge in when the signal was lit.

If nothing else (and we all know there are loads of other damning actions) Loghain willfully broke ranks and retreated at the precise moment his own plan called for him to go into battle. There was NO way he could know the conditions on the field at all, and any attempts to say he retreated because he knew the battle was lost is just an excuse to gloss over painful facts.

Why would you ever bother having a signal set up for someone if they 1) could see conditions for themselves and go when they thought it was necessary and 2) you had a specific time laid out for the attack?

Alistair says they probably missed the signal because they should have been up in the top of that tower mere moments after entering to stand watch waiting for their signal to light the beacon, and obviously fighting through a horde of darkspawn that weren't supposed to be there was not in the plans.

So, forget Eamon being poisoned (provable, tied directly to Loghain) and forget Howe's attack on the Couslands (only makes sense if Loghain was in on it unless Howe is psychic) and forget Uldred running back to take over the tower (also able to be proved by various sources in the mage tower) that *still* leaves Loghain willfully failing to execute the plan he devised with NO logical reason unless he wanted the King to die.

So, as I said earlier, it would have been a whole different game. LOL

Modifié par SarEnyaDor, 28 décembre 2009 - 11:26 .

[bas273]

RSTORM50 wrote...
Since you have to fight your way to, and through the tower the signal to light it was missed and when you finally get there the only option is to carry out your mission late or not.

From a strategic standpoint, the move for Loghain to make when the beacon was so late to be lit was to retreat. If the signal was missed the optimum time to execute the flanking action had passed and you're committing your forces to a battle where the plan had already gone awry. And a good military commander would not commit his forces into that sort of situation. 

a) Loghain doesn't know the Tower of Ishal is overrun by Darkspawn.
Alistair and the Grey Warden have missed the signal so the perfect time for Loghain's men to strike has already passed. King Cailan and Duncan are still alive though.
c) Loghain hasn't seen the signal to alert the Tower of Ishal. This signal was sent by the King's forces because they would draw the Darkspawn into their lines and then signal the ToI. Conclusion: Loghain doesn't know that the Grey Wardens have missed the signal. As far as he can tell, the Grey Wardens have succeeded in their mission and lighted the beacon just in time. Now's the time to flank the Darkspawn.

[Grommash94]

Loghain had been planning for quite a while I think to get rid of Cailan. Redcliffe/The Circle/Highever, all signs of that. In the cinematic we see that the soldiers are getting overwhelmed, but, that was only one area of the battle, AND we don't know how long the beacon had been lit at that point. We also don't know how large an army Loghain had. Mind you, the tactics were sort of stupid...Cailan's forces should not have charged, they should have forced the darkspawn to come through via a choke point, and slaughter em, then Loghain would come, flank em, and THEN they would all charge.



And, once again, Alistair did say that the king had almost defeated the darkspawn. If anything, they would have won that single battle, perhaps not the entire war. Or at the very least, they could've retreated with a few Grey Wardens and the king still alive.

[bas273]

First of all, Alistair was lighting a beacon in the Tower of Ishal so he couldn't see what was going on down in the valley.



Secondly, Redcliffe/The Circle/etc. all took place after the battle. If Loghain truly wanted to get rid of Cailan he wouldn't be discussing this battle for days with him. As King Cailan tells you several times: Loghain has been trying for days to convince him to change battle plans. Loghain doesn't want the King to die, that's for sure.

[Grommash94]

No, Highever took place before.

[SeanMurphy2]

I think Loghain had some view of the battle and could see that it was going badly.

But I don't think he had enough information to charge without the signal. He has to charge into the rear of the whole horde. He can't let his army get flanked in the valley by another group of darkspawn.

It is possible that he waits for the late signal, but sees that the battle is a disaster and nothing can be done. So it is better to march the army away rather than watch the few survivors get slaughtered by the darkspawn.

Modifié par SeanMurphy2, 28 décembre 2009 - 12:08 .

[SarEnyaDor]

All of the Origin happenings happened before Ostegar - so Highever destroyed, Jowan escaped and got recruited to poison Eamon, the beginnings of the trouble in the alienage were all done or were well in the midst of occurring whilst we are running around collecting vials of blood.



Why do any of that if you don't want the king dead?



If you can't think of any other reasons (power grab, paranoid delusions, feeling that Cailan was mere shadow of Maric) how about he is Anora's father and Cailan was screwing around alot on her -alot -maybe with an *gasp* Orlesian *gasp* even.

[SarEnyaDor]

SeanMurphy2 wrote...

I think Loghain had some view of the battle and could see that it was going badly.

But I don't think he had enough information to charge without the signal. He has to charge into the rear of the whole horde. He can't let his army get flanked in the valley by another group of darkspawn.

It is possible that he waits for the late signal, but sees that the battle is a disaster and nothing can be done. So it is better to march the army away rather than watch the few survivors get slaughtered by the darkspawn.

Well, you are free to make up anything you want to make yourself feel better, but the given *facts* are that he was supposed to charge when the signal was lit. There was no way for him to know if the signal was late as it WAS the signal, and he didn't do his job.

[SeanMurphy2]

He could have had a partial view of the battlefield to believe that at that stage the battle was a disaster. And it would be futile to charge the rest of the army into the valley.

Things were not going well. The original plan may no longer have worked. It is a big risk to potentially lose the whole army at Ostager. If he charges the whole army into the valley, there is no retreat. He would not know if the darkspawn have more forces who could surround him.

Modifié par SeanMurphy2, 28 décembre 2009 - 12:29 .

[Lotion Soronarr]

Default137 wrote...

Two main problems.

By the time we see the field at all, ala, get the Beacon lit, the field is literally lost, NOTHING Loghain does would have saved Cailen, and Duncan probably would have died regardless anyway, while they may have won that battle, it would have incured MASSIVE casualties, and wouldn't have been intelligent to get into for any reason whatsoever besides blind loyalty.

Even if Loghain charged in, there was barely anyone left to inspire, the fact he was charging wouldn't have boosted anyones morale, they were all DEAD, it would have been Loghains forces versus the Darkspawn, and even if he wasn't outnumbered, would have been a pyrrhic victory at the best, and a total massacre at the worst.

Even not knowing that this was only the start of a Blight, and just thinking it was a minor skirmish, NOONE is going to suicide their entire army into the Darkspawn to win favors back home, they are going to forfeit the field, and make due with what little they can.

Then I guess all the officers and survivors from Ostagar saying the battle was winnable must be wrong and you must be right.
I love it how pople completely ingore everything that goes against their fantasies.

IF LOGHAIN COULD SEE WHAT WAS GOING ON, HE WOULDN'T NEED THE SIGNAL.

Officers at Ostagar comment that tehy are confident in victory, even if faced with vastly superior numbers - Ostagar was very defensible and the battleplan was sound.

Prisoners in Howe's dungeon further confirm this.

[westiex9]

Sir Ulrich Von Lichenstien wrote...

From what has been reported in the Wiki, Alastair was right that we lit the Beacon late, Loghain knew at that point the damage would have already been done and thus sending more lives in to try 'crush' the enemy would be futile.

If the cut-scene of the battle follows with the action taking place at the same time, then even had Loghain not withdrawn, Cailan would already be a broken in half (on the inside) ragdoll and Duncan most likely decapitated as it looked like he was about to be.

Loghain's distrust of the Grey Wardens stems back to when Maric was still alive and Loghain believed the Wardens were in on an ambush that Maric encountered at the Circle of Magi which had been overtaken by some Orlesian Mages.

They had only just signed the peace treaty with the Orlesians ten years prior to the games events. After spending several years defending Ferelden from the Orlesians trying to take it back and more years prior to that reclaiming Ferelden.

Anyone that can't understand Loghain's mindset, the beacon lighting was delayed, Loghain believed this further proof that the 'allegedly' almight Wardens were in fact trying to aid the Orlesians in another invasion and using the 'blight' as a cover story. Considering how Howe in the past had sided with the Orlesians, I believe that was a catalyst in possibly him spinning lies stating they were planning another attack, some reason Loghain trusted his opinion and the rest is history.

Mmm, Ser Cauthrien as a romance option *swoon*

In my opinion, the Wardens brought the whole mess on themselves. Duncan should have known whom the real person to talk to regarding combat would be Loghain and he should have told him the 'dark secret' about how a Warden is needed to kill the Archdemon, the only issue he would then have is proving to Loghain that he wasn't some sort of Orlesian spy and prove that there was an Archdemon leading the blight.

Someone's been drinking loghains koolaid!  

Modifié par westiex9, 28 décembre 2009 - 12:39 .

[jon 45]

SeanMurphy2 wrote...

He could have had a partial view of the battlefield to believe that at that stage the battle was a disaster.

He could, but it is clear that he didn't.

And it is made clear through in-game dialogue that Eamon's poisoning took place before the battle at Ostagar.

Teyrn Cousland (who together with Eamon would have been the prime candidate to succeed Cailan after the latter died without issue) was murdered before Ostagar.

The Orlesian reinforcements were almost certainly turned back at the border before Ostagar (if they hadn't been expected to be within reasonable marching distance at the time of the battle, there is no point at all to mention waiting for them as an alternative).

There is too much done at Loghain's behest before the decision to charge or not to charge ever comes up for that to be a decision made right there, on the spot. Any of those actions would have gotten Loghain killed had Cailan lived to learn about his involvement. This makes it pretty clear that Loghain set up the battle at Ostagar specifically to get rid of Cailan (and the Wardens). He played on the naive king's desire for glory to put him in a dangerous position and then abandoned him.

The one thing that went wrong with Loghain's plan is that the Wardens managed to light the beacon, because suddenly he had to order a retreat, making his treachery evident for all who cared to look.

Modifié par jon 45, 28 décembre 2009 - 12:41 .

[Lotion Soronarr]

Asante81 wrote...
Don't you remember that Howe told Loghain something about the Couslands betraying the king? It's not so hard to believe he prepared some nice evidence to present to the king...

Traitors or no, you don't just slaghter a whole noble house, down to the last servant. The Couslands were higher in the hierarchy than the Howe's. If there was truly threchery, the proper way would be to present evidence to the king.
Attacking in the middle of the night and taking no prisoners without even consulting the king? C'mon. There's no evidence Howe could possibly fabricate to justify what he did to the king.

[bas273]

jon 45 wrote...

SeanMurphy2 wrote...

He could have had a partial view of the battlefield to believe that at that stage the battle was a disaster.

He could, but it is clear that he didn't.

And it is made clear through in-game dialogue that Eamon's poisoning took place before the battle at Ostagar.

Teyrn Cousland (who together with Eamon would have been the prime candidate to succeed Cailan after the latter died without issue) was murdered before Ostagar.

The Orlesian reinforcements were almost certainly turned back at the border before Ostagar (if they hadn't been expected to be within reasonable marching distance at the time of the battle, there is no point at all to mention waiting for them as an alternative).

There is too much done at Loghain's behest before the decision to charge or not to charge ever comes up for that to be a decision made right there, on the spot. Any of those actions would have gotten Loghain killed had Cailan lived to learn about his involvement. This makes it pretty clear that Loghain set up the battle at Ostagar specifically to get rid of Cailan (and the Wardens). He played on the naive king's desire for glory to put him in a dangerous position and then abandoned him.

The one thing that went wrong with Loghain's plan is that the Wardens managed to light the beacon, because suddenly he had to order a retreat, making his treachery evident for all who cared to look.

That's a possibility. Loghain's men are stationed at the Tower of Ishal and he knew of the lower chambers. He also tries to convince Cailan not to send the Wardens. Perhaps he was expecting a Darkspawn attack in the tower. If his plan would succeed, the beacon wouldn't be lit and he could retreat without being called a traitor.

Traitors or no, you don't just slaghter a whole noble house, down to
the last servant. The Couslands were higher in the hierarchy than the
Howe's. If there was truly threchery, the proper way would be to
present evidence to the king.
Attacking in the middle of the night
and taking no prisoners without even consulting the king? C'mon.
There's no evidence Howe could possibly fabricate to justify what he
did to the king.

A simple lie would suffice. They could tell Cailan that Highever was attacked by Darkspawn.

Or perhaps that's one of the reasons why Cailan has to die.

Modifié par bas273, 28 décembre 2009 - 12:51 .

[knarayan]

There's also the whole Eamon thing. When you get to Lothering, Eamon is already in a coma and agreed as being beyond the reach of magic and medicine. The knights have already been searching for the Urn and several have died.

Which means that Eamon would have been poisoned just before Ostagar - maybe immediately after sending his message re troops to Cailan.

Even if Eamon was poisoned after Ostagar, Jowan would have to have been approached before Ostagar - and it was Loghain who recommended Jowan to Isolde.

It was premeditated. The whole thing of withdrawing to save the lives of his men may have even been true, but Cailan's death was murder.