115 réponses à ce sujet

[IronVanguard]

Original182 wrote...

There is another evidence that seems to indicate Loghain had planned something treacherous since the beginning. I'm talking about Rendon Howe.

Before Ostagar, if you play the human noble, Arl Howe invaded and killed the PC's parents. Was this planned by Loghain and Howe since the beginning, to remove all threat to the throne?

Also, the poisoning of Eamon.
Whose timing I still don't get.

If Jowan left right before you did, assuming all Origins have the same timeframe, then you take into account how long it took you to get to Ostagar, then to wake up after the tower, and to get to Lothering to meet the knight who tells you he's been poisoned...

I guess Isolde sent them after the Urn after, like, he was sick two hours or something.

[SeanMurphy2]

I think Cailan may have died anyway even if Loghain charged. The signal was late, Cailan was on the frontlines in the midst of the battle. He gets killed in a one on one fight with an Ogre. I am not sure Loghain could have reached him in time.



If Cailan dies then I think events would have been roughly the same. Loghain would take control and move his forces away from Ostager not realising the darkspawn threat.. He would disagree with the nobles and Ferelden would be distracted by a civil war.



If Cailan lives. Then I suppose all the armies would hang around Ostager for months waiting for the Archdemon to appear. Or he gets bored, declares victory and returns to Denerim. The Grey Wardens probably remain at Ostager. And the game would be about fighting darkspawn in the Korcari wilds. Or you lose a later battle at Ostager when the darkspawn invade Ferelden.

[Lotion Soronarr]

Sir Ulrich Von Lichenstien wrote...
He didn't want Cailan dead, he wanted Cailan away from the frontline, it wasn't his fault Cailan was a fool and he was in no position to force Cailan to change his mind.

Also he did know it was lit late, whilst they have no clocks, they would know how long it would usually take to get up there once battle commence and even if he didn't have an absolute brilliant view of the battle, he has ears which means he can hear it a: starting and b: if it is really kicking off.

Are you actually serious? You can't direct a battle with sound. By sound you can tell jack s****.
Loghain really couldn't know. He didn't have a view of the battle since he and his army were hidden from sight (behind a hill IIRC).

He considered Eamon and the others to be conspiring with the Orlesians, as previously stated he has a seriously bad case of distrust for the Wardens due to previous events back when Maric was still alive. Cailan is too stupid to have been fooling around behind Anora's back.

Cailan is brash, not stupid. Who knows what he was up to? Anora is hot, be she strikes me as a cold fish.
Loghains guard clearly mentions that they were arguining over the GW's and Anora...what do you think they aregued about? Her hair?

The alienage issue as he states when trying to defend his reasoning for selling the elves was because it is obvious as far as funding a potential war with the Orlesians AND if the rumours were true about the Blight, were not enough and so he had to use everything at his disposal to fund it.

He can take his explanation and showe it where the sun doens't shine. The losses at Ostagar were his fault. HIS battleplan. If it failed, it's because of him. Insted of using hte alianage elves as  potential soldiers he's selling them off as slaves. Even more despicable given how much he values freedom.

Regarding Howe, I don't Loghain could really do anything. I don't think Cailan would allow for Howe to be harmed before he explained himself and was investigated. therefore, Cailan had to go.

[Lotion Soronarr]

RSTORM50 wrote...

The conclusion that you still commit your forces to this flanking action is not a strategically sound thing to do from the military standpoint.  Too much time would have passed for the original plan to be carried out. Strategically speaking there should have been a plan B seeing that plans generally do not survive the enemy, but that's neither here nor there.

Then you know noting of strategy.
There was no definite time at which you're supposed ot light the beacon. No "light it at 15:30". If that was the case, you wouldn't need the beacon, the aarmy could just say "hmmm..roughly 15 minutes, lets go!".

The original plan was that you go to the top of hte tower and wait for cailans or duncans signal to light hte beacon. But it took you a while to get up there and you're probably running late.

Now i'm not saying Loghain isn't an evil bastid, but when he said Cailin's death was his own doing he wasn't lying. He shouldn't have been on the front line going for his glory in the first place, and he should have listened to the military commander's advice which was do not fight this battle. Cailin scoffed at the idea of Eamon's forces because he supposed Eamon only wanted in on the glory.

Cailin's death at Ostagar probably saved lives as he would not have stopped after that battle, keeping on in the name of "glory." 

Yes, because as we all know, The Blight will stop and no more livevs will be lost if oyu don actively oppose it. that's hte dumbest argument I've ever heard in my life. By abandoning Ostagar hte darkspawn were free to push deeper into Ferelden, threatening more lives, destroying whole vilalge, etc...

"Cailan death his own doing?" Cheap excuse, but it is a truth in a way. Just as every soldiers death is his own doing, since he choose to be a soldier. So spare me the Obi-Wan type "half-truths from a certain point of view". Cailans death is Loghains fault.

[Lotion Soronarr]

Asante81 wrote...
And: HE DID TRY TO CONVINCE CAILAN FOR DAYS NOT TO FIGHT ALONGSIDE THE GREY WARDENS!
Did he plan to get rid of the Wardens he never trusted and thought of being lickspittles of the Orlesians? Yes, he did. But he tried to do everything to keep his king out of there. And this seemed to have been the only situation where Cailan was stubborn enough not to listen to daddy-in-law and Hero of River Dane Loghain. 

That wasn't the only situation they argued. They argued a LOT about a LOT of stuff. You cna get that much by talking to Loghains and Cailans guards.
To put it simply, Cailan wasn't as mellable  as Maric. He wasn't as willing to listen to the Word of Loghain. So Loghain telling him "I don't you should be on the front lines" mean nothing. As I said before, he could have just as easily been baiting him, knowing well he'll disagree.

[RSTORM50]

Lotion Soronnar wrote...

Then you know noting of strategy.
There was no definite time at which you're supposed ot light the beacon. No "light it at 15:30". If that was the case, you wouldn't need the beacon, the aarmy could just say "hmmm..roughly 15 minutes, lets go!".

The original plan was that you go to the top of hte tower and wait for cailans or duncans signal to light hte beacon. But it took you a while to get up there and you're probably running late.

 

First to reference what you said in the post previous to this one, what exactly would you imagine all that screaming and clashing of metal against metal would be if it's not the battle in progress? It sure isn't some metalhead playing the latest Killswitch Engage CD.

The plan was to lure the horde into attacking, light the beacon and Loghain rolls them up in a pincer. While you're slugging your way to the top of the tower, the battle isn't frozen in time so you're not going to be able to light the beacon at the appropriate time when the flanking action can work. And the flanking move works as soon as the enemy has committed to the attack, not after they've pretty much routed the defenders.

And yes there WAS a definite time to light the beacon. That time was when you were signalled to do so from the front. That signal would have come when the enemy was committed to the attack.  You didn't make it, and the delay in lighting it causes Loghain to get the signal late. Actually lighting the beacon without seeing the signal (In the game, it is assumed by the wardens the signal did come and they simply missed it, so you lit the beacon, better late than never eh?) was the wrong thing to do.

Again, the plan did not survive the enemy and there was no back up plan to follow.. a total FUBAR.

Yes, because as we all know, The Blight will stop and no more livevs will be lost if oyu don actively oppose it. that's hte dumbest argument I've ever heard in my life. By abandoning Ostagar hte darkspawn were free to push deeper into Ferelden, threatening more lives, destroying whole vilalge, etc...

No, Cailin was clearly not someone you want planning battles.. Sending what he called "our best" to light the beacon when they should have been down there with Duncan taking out darkspawn? Loghain wanted his men to light the beacon and since you have to believe he trusts his own men where he does not trust the GW , when he can hear the battle in progress and the beacon either doesn't get lit or comes at some time later, he will know something is amiss. Then the commander sends out a scout team, gets a report and probably makes the decision to save the troops to fight another day anyway.  

Militarily, Loghain did the right thing by saving his troops, but we all know he didn't do it for benign reasons.

Further, Loghain DID want to wait for reinforcements before forcing this battle. He just didn't want those reinforcements to come from Orlais.

Cailin's death probably saved lives because he's no longer in on planning debacles such as Ostagar.

"Cailan death his own doing?" Cheap excuse, but it is a truth in a way. Just as every soldiers death is his own doing, since he choose to be a soldier. So spare me the Obi-Wan type "half-truths from a certain point of view". Cailans death is Loghains fault.

Cheap excuse? Cailin had no business being on the front line. He was all about the glory of the battle, scoffing at the idea of Eamon only wanting to "get in on the glory" and refusing to listen to his military commander that he not be there on the front lines. It certainly wasn't Loghain's fault he was out there, it was his own.

[Revik]

I think most people have it all wrong but this is just my take on the situation.  I don't believe Loghain originally intended for the King Cailin to die at Ostagar.  Loghain's original plan was the destruction of the appearing foreigners AKA Grey Wardens.  Loghain didn't want Cailin at the front lines because he KNEW was going to leave them for dead.  As Loghain said "Cailin made his choice" meaning he made his choice to side with Orlais which we all know Loghain would have none of. 

Eamon prior poisoning could also be explained.  Eamon being a known Orlasian sympathizer being wife to one could not be trusted.  Being of such high standing and influence throughout the land is a voiced that needed to be silenced.

Loghain's plan would have been to unite all of Ferelden against the dark spawn (at this time not recognized as a blight) without need for foreign aid.  This plan was doomed to fail no matter if everything went his way or not because firstly it was a true blight and without any Grey Wardens which you had intended to leave to slaughter at Ostagar would have been their only chance to fend off the blight.

Now back to the topic.  If Loghain hadn't deserted the King the most likley out come would have been that he was TOO late to save the king but with the dark spawn forces surrounded most likely would have crushed that army.  However, they would have taken larger than expected casualties.  Flemeth would NOT have come to your rescue and saved you since the battle was won.  Most likely not all the Grey Wardens were killed so all is not lost against the blight. 

Ostagar's advantage would have been comprimised due to the dark spawn being about to come up from the catacombs of Ishal and forced a retreat of the greater army.  Loghain would declare himself regent just as before and try to rally all the nobles to his cause.  In this case he WOULD be able to get all the nobles in line and possible set up a defense for either Red Cliff or Denerim.  Loghain would have probably have rejected the help of the surviving Grey Wardens and possibly marched them out of Ferelden.  This defense would have eventually failed due to it being a true blight.  Orlais would have punched into Ferelden stopped the blight and enslaved Ferelden once more.

At least thats how I see it.

[NinjaWJ]

I think Loghain planned everything even the retreat ot Ostagar. Im pretty sure he knew the Tower was going to be attacked and the beacon never lit but the Grey Wardens were able to light it. If he charged into battle then all the people he made dealings with earlier would be exposed, so he had to order a retreat to protect those people and hopefully have a chance to become King

[kraidy1117]

The point is, even if Loghain did not leave and did win, they would still take huge loses, and this could be very bad as that is just a huge horde, as we find out half way threw the game that the Archdemon is STILL building the Drakspawn army. They would need to call on help and many people, including Loghain where very upset when the kIng wanted Orlais help. Everyone thinks Loghian was mad, but in truth he had a fair point. No one knows for certain what Orlias would do if they where welcomed into Ferelden and the Blight was beat. Also LOghain did not want to leave the king, why do you think he was portesting the KIng not to be in the front line and why do you think he wanted his men at the tower? It was all planed. Loghain wanted the army to be strong, why would he care about a few Wardens? HE disp[sies them and only if you get his apporval high when you recruit him does he finnly accept that they are the real deal and he respects you.

[Kenshen]

SeanMurphy2 wrote...

I think Cailan may have died anyway even if Loghain charged. The signal was late, Cailan was on the frontlines in the midst of the battle. He gets killed in a one on one fight with an Ogre. I am not sure Loghain could have reached him in time.

If Cailan dies then I think events would have been roughly the same. Loghain would take control and move his forces away from Ostager not realising the darkspawn threat.. He would disagree with the nobles and Ferelden would be distracted by a civil war.

I am not so sure about this.  If Loghain stays and fights then most if not all of the nobles would see him as the general and defender he saw himself as.  At least to fight the blight I could see everyone joining under his banner to save the day.  The king being killed in battle isn't as shocking as knowing that Loghain left the battle and did nothing to try to prevent it.  If he doesn't leave things change a lot.

[kormesios]

kraidy1117 wrote...

The point is, even if Loghain did not leave and did win, they would still take huge loses, and this could be very bad as that is just a huge horde, as we find out half way threw the game that the Archdemon is STILL building the Drakspawn army.

Well, we have no idea what their losses would have been.  A cunning plan, like an ambush or encirclement, can annihilate a larger enemy force with minimal losses.  (Look up Cannae for the textbook example if you doubt this.)

But assuming it was a tough battle, it still may have been the best choice.  Destroy the van of the darkspawn army (if that's all it was, which again, we don't know) and buy time for the south of Ferelden.  Maybe you have a chance to face each emerging darkspawn unit after that and defeat them in detail; even if not you still have the strategic fortifications at Ostagar, instead of mass chaos and no way to defend interior points.

They would need to call on help and many people, including Loghain where very upset when the kIng wanted Orlais help. Everyone thinks Loghian was mad, but in truth he had a fair point. No one knows for certain what Orlias would do if they where welcomed into Ferelden and the Blight was beat.

Technically, no, we don't "know", but I would assume that if they were going to make a move, they would have done it after half Ferelden was overrun by the darkspawn and the other half was fighting each other in a civil war. 

Like every other defense of Loghain, this falls into the "let's play make believe" category, in which facts that don't exist in game except in Loghain's paranoid megalomania are postulated to be real.

This is understandable, since for pretty much every verifiable fact in-game fact Loghain has an opinion on, he is wrong.  Not a real blight?  Wrong.  Banns will support him after he seizes power?  Wrong.  His ability to raise an army and deal with the darkspawn quickly?  Wrong.  Grey Wardens not necessary?  Wrong.  Civil war will be over once he wins a few victories?  Wrong.  Landsmeet will support him in Denerim?  Wrong.  Grey Wardens betrayed Cailan?  Wrong.  Uldred's mages can sway the Circle?  Wrong.

Also LOghain did not want to leave the king, why do you think he was portesting the KIng not to be in the front line?

This has been answered about a dozen times in this thread, at least twice by me.  I'll let you read back if you're interested.

Modifié par kormesios, 29 décembre 2009 - 10:33 .

[kraidy1117]

kormesios wrote...

kraidy1117 wrote...

The point is, even if Loghain did not leave and did win, they would still take huge loses, and this could be very bad as that is just a huge horde, as we find out half way threw the game that the Archdemon is STILL building the Drakspawn army.

Well, we have no idea what their losses would have been.  A cunning plan, like an ambush or encirclement, can annihilate a larger enemy force with minimal losses.  (Look up Cannae for the textbook example if you doubt this.)

But assuming it was a tough battle, it still may have been the best choice.  Destroy the van of the darkspawn army (if that's all it was, which again, we don't know) and buy time for the south of Ferelden.  Maybe you have a chance to face each emerging darkspawn unit after that and defeat them in detail; even if not you still have the strategic fortifications at Ostagar, instead of mass chaos and no way to defend interior points.

They would need to call on help and many people, including Loghain where very upset when the kIng wanted Orlais help. Everyone thinks Loghian was mad, but in truth he had a fair point. No one knows for certain what Orlias would do if they where welcomed into Ferelden and the Blight was beat.

Technically, no, we don't "know", but I would assume that if they were going to make a move, they would have done it after half Ferelden was overrun by the darkspawn and the other half was fighting each other in a civil war. 

Like every other defense of Loghain, this falls into the "let's play make believe" category, in which facts that don't exist in game except in Loghain's paranoid megalomania are postulated to be real.

This is understandable, since for pretty much every verifiable fact in-game fact Loghain has an opinion on, he is wrong.  Not a real blight?  Wrong.  Banns will support him after he seizes power?  Wrong.  His ability to raise an army and deal with the darkspawn quickly?  Wrong.  Grey Wardens not necessary?  Wrong.  Civil war will be over once he wins a few victories?  Wrong.  Landsmeet will support him in Denerim?  Wrong.  Grey Wardens betrayed Cailan?  Wrong.  Uldred's mages can sway the Circle?  Wrong.

Also LOghain did not want to leave the king, why do you think he was portesting the KIng not to be in the front line?

This has been answered about a dozen times in this thread, at least twice by me.  I'll let you read back if you're interested.

Lets see there where in front of the front line, yes Loghain would flank them, but did you forget about the Darkspawn that had tunneled them self into the tower and where making it self into the main camp unti lyou stopped them near the gate. If the Darkspawn would have kept moving past the tower they could have flanked the army, making the battle very much dire.

As for the whole Orlais thing. Think about it, do you realy think Orlais would leave. I read the books and I think they would just try to invade again. Many other countires think Ferelden is very chaotic, and while Orlais did poorly the first time, if they conqured Ferelden again and made a better place then it would work. Argue what you want, but the battle while winnable was not solid. No one suspected that Darkspawn would tunnel from the bottom of the tower, nor that the King decided to be on the front line very late after preperations.

Yes a perfect plan can win a battle, I know history but you have to take in all accounts in the battle of Ostagar.

1: The gray wardens where in the front line with the King
2: The Darkspawn where around 3 to 4xs bigger then the whole army
3: Loghain was waiting for the singal
4: There is tunnels under the tower
5: The tower leades to the main camp, which leads to the back of the front line

Now lets put this all together now. The whole signal plan could backfire realy badly even if Loghain did not plan to ambush. The king was at a huge risk at the front lines, which Loghain states many times it was his choice and it was. Also the Darkspawen coming from the under levels of the tower changed up things alot. It was thanks to you and Alastair that the Darkspawn did not make it to the main camp, and if that would have happened the front line would have got flanked, and this changes the whole plan big time. If Loghain did proceed with the attack, yes while they would flank the main force, the front line would be in huge danger because of theo ther Darkspawn force. The whole point is that it was thanks to you and Alastair that the other Darkspawn force did not come, hell what would have happened if you where in the front line? I don't want to here the "oh I am uber" you would die because even a skilled warrior could not hanle that (do not bring Myth warriors in here)

The battle could be a desaster anyway, simply because of that other Darkspawn force that for some reason people seem to forget and that very force changes everything. Lets do a little diagram to get my point out for the poeple who can't read.

KCA= KIng Callien army
DS= Darkspawn
LF=Loghains forces

LF>>>>>>>>>>>><DS>>>>>>>>>KCA<<<<<<<<<<<<DS

This makes the battle even, with both sides not realy having an advntage. This similar thing has also happened in past battle to, and while not like this, Troy was kinda similar as they got them self into the city and tacked from diffrent spots in the city, overwelming the forces. My point is that well-thought out plans can backfire.

[Sir Ulrich Von Lichenstien]

If you can't understand why Loghain thought they way he did, I suggest you look up some Ferelden lore, it isn't a case of 'playing make believe'.



How long ago was the last blight? 400 years, right... history becomes legend, legend becomes myth.



How long ago was it since the Orlesians signed a peace treaty stating they wouldn't try to attack/invade Ferelden again? 10 years and this was after a 100 year occupation, the previous 20 years Loghain and Maric had pushed them out and defended Ferelden from them trying to come back in. Cold, hard, facts that are still firmly known in history and of people that are still alive that endured through that time.



Whom always votes for Loghain? Bann Coerlic? Want to know why? Probably because he knows that voting against Loghain is a VERY bad idea, specially seeing as his dad killed Loghain's dad and Maric's mother and he was made to swear loyalty to Maric/Loghain. In fact, if it hadn't have been for the Warden, most of the Banns would have sided with him. Alfstanna for one definitly. We all know that Anora holds good sway over the nobles too, so please don't start trying to claim that rubbish.



If Loghain knew about the dark secret of the Wardens when it came to the Blight AND had had confirmation that it was a proper Blight, somehow I think he would have considered the Wardens necessary? (remember this wasn't confirmed until they all actually got to Redcliffe)



You are using hindsight and in some respects just as much playing 'make believe' if you are to go on the principal of knowing this information beforehand.

[Hahren]

IronVanguard wrote...

If Jowan left right before you did, assuming all Origins have the same timeframe, then you take into account how long it took you to get to Ostagar, then to wake up after the tower, and to get to Lothering to meet the knight who tells you he's been poisoned...

I guess Isolde sent them after the Urn after, like, he was sick two hours or something.

After playing all the origins, and some of them several times, I can tell you that there is a time line for the origins. I'm not 100% on what happens first (my guess is the Dalish origin), but some of the origins hint at other events as having happened already(like the dwarf commoner origin takes place about a week or so before the dwarf noble). Plus Duncan gets very pushy about getting a recruit in the Magi origin. I can't help but feel that he began his travels at the top of the Ferelden map, and works his way toward Ostagar (Circle Tower being closest, and it's also the greatest sense of urgency about a Blight of all the origins).

My guess at the timeline is this...

Dalish (Duncan discovers magic mirror, and it's ability to taint others... fears Darkspawn may use this to find an Old God), Dwarf commoner, Dwarf Noble (Duncan comes to join in on Deeps Road venture to see if darkspawn activity has shifted towards the surface... fears a possible Blight), Human Noble (Ostagar campaign is in full swing, and recruitment becomes more important), City Elf (may happen around the same time as Highever due to proximity), Magi (Duncan is far more pushy about gaining recruits in this origin vs Highever time is probably running out. Plus Duncan is far more chatty about Darkspawn/Archdemon/Blight than any other).

As far as the original topic...

If Loghain did not pull back then he would have set something else up to bring down Cailen. It's pretty obvious Loghain wanted the king out of the way because of his fear of Orlais. I think that he knew the king would die at Ostagar, but he didn't count on the darkspawn horde being part of a true Blight. His plan would have worked out just fine if it wasn't for that bratty Cousland kid, and his dog!

[kraidy1117]

Hahren wrote...

IronVanguard wrote...

If Jowan left right before you did, assuming all Origins have the same timeframe, then you take into account how long it took you to get to Ostagar, then to wake up after the tower, and to get to Lothering to meet the knight who tells you he's been poisoned...

I guess Isolde sent them after the Urn after, like, he was sick two hours or something.

After playing all the origins, and some of them several times, I can tell you that there is a time line for the origins. I'm not 100% on what happens first (my guess is the Dalish origin), but some of the origins hint at other events as having happened already(like the dwarf commoner origin takes place about a week or so before the dwarf noble). Plus Duncan gets very pushy about getting a recruit in the Magi origin. I can't help but feel that he began his travels at the top of the Ferelden map, and works his way toward Ostagar (Circle Tower being closest, and it's also the greatest sense of urgency about a Blight of all the origins).

My guess at the timeline is this...

Dalish (Duncan discovers magic mirror, and it's ability to taint others... fears Darkspawn may use this to find an Old God), Dwarf commoner, Dwarf Noble (Duncan comes to join in on Deeps Road venture to see if darkspawn activity has shifted towards the surface... fears a possible Blight), Human Noble (Ostagar campaign is in full swing, and recruitment becomes more important), City Elf (may happen around the same time as Highever due to proximity), Magi (Duncan is far more pushy about gaining recruits in this origin vs Highever time is probably running out. Plus Duncan is far more chatty about Darkspawn/Archdemon/Blight than any other).

As far as the original topic...

If Loghain did not pull back then he would have set something else up to bring down Cailen. It's pretty obvious Loghain wanted the king out of the way because of his fear of Orlais. I think that he knew the king would die at Ostagar, but he didn't count on the darkspawn horde being part of a true Blight. His plan would have worked out just fine if it wasn't for that bratty Cousland kid, and his dog!

HE'S NOT A DOG, HE'S A PURE BLOODED MABARI!!!!!

[Hahren]

Sir Ulrich Von Lichenstien wrote...

If you can't understand why Loghain thought they way he did, I suggest you look up some Ferelden lore, it isn't a case of 'playing make believe'.

How long ago was the last blight? 400 years, right... history becomes legend, legend becomes myth.

How long ago was it since the Orlesians signed a peace treaty stating they wouldn't try to attack/invade Ferelden again? 10 years and this was after a 100 year occupation, the previous 20 years Loghain and Maric had pushed them out and defended Ferelden from them trying to come back in. Cold, hard, facts that are still firmly known in history and of people that are still alive that endured through that time.

Whom always votes for Loghain? Bann Coerlic? Want to know why? Probably because he knows that voting against Loghain is a VERY bad idea, specially seeing as his dad killed Loghain's dad and Maric's mother and he was made to swear loyalty to Maric/Loghain. In fact, if it hadn't have been for the Warden, most of the Banns would have sided with him. Alfstanna for one definitly. We all know that Anora holds good sway over the nobles too, so please don't start trying to claim that rubbish.

If Loghain knew about the dark secret of the Wardens when it came to the Blight AND had had confirmation that it was a proper Blight, somehow I think he would have considered the Wardens necessary? (remember this wasn't confirmed until they all actually got to Redcliffe)

You are using hindsight and in some respects just as much playing 'make believe' if you are to go on the principal of knowing this information beforehand.

 I do not think that Loghain believed that the darkspawn force was as serious as it turned out to be. There is a lot of evidence in the game though that suggest he plotted against the throne with Ostagar being the finale in his Coup d'etat.