182 réponses à ce sujet

[JohnBes]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

120 UR to unlock
Let's say the drop rate for UR is 25% in a PSP(it isnt)
This means you would need 480 PSPs
That is 47.52million credits
Lets say we consider gold 82k per match
That is 579.5 gold matches
15min per gold
144hr

So take what part of math you like and figure out what is resonable to you.

But the possibility of that is soooooooo low.

Actually, let's do some math.
So, 120 URs to unlock, drop rate is 25%.

Let's say this lucky dog played for 300 hours exclusively on gold.
He also burst through every gold match in 15 minutes.

Let's say he bought PSP after every match.

So, 300 * 60 / 15 = 1200 gold matches played, therefore 1200 PSPs bought.

Out of every PSP he did (25%)  or didn't (75%) get UR. It's the Bernoulli trial.

Let's calculate the possibility of him maxing every UR.

Pn(k) = Cnk * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), where n=1200, k = 120, p = 0,25    (check the link)

I won't bore you with calculations. The possibility is approximately equal to 6 * 10^(-38) %.

So, should I say it's... improbable?

[alhamel94]

its a list of suspected cheaters guys. if hes wrong bioware isnt going to ban them. if he is helping to ban cheater i have absolutely 0 problem, as long as its something you enjoy doing

[Alex_Dur4and]

 Here is MY analysis...

128 Ultra-rare points
(Talon, Wraith, Javelin, Harrier, Saber, Typhoon, Particle, Col. SMG, Scorpion, Paladin, Indra, B.Widow, Volus Eng and Volus adept)

10% chance per premium specter pack (10 x 99 000 = 990 000 credits)
Every 2 psp you buy 1 jumbo pack  (5 x 33 000 = 165 000 credits)
total = 1 155 000 credits per ultra-rare

average of 70 000 credits per gold game (you don't win EVERY game)

1 155 000 / 70 000 = 1 ultra-rare per 16.5 gold games

30 minutes average per gold game
5 minutes average waiting in the lobby per game

16.5 x 35 minutes = 577.5 minutes per ultra-rare x 128 = 73920 minutes 

73920 / 60 minutes = 1232 hours to max out your manifest! (if you are either lucky or unlucky)

Total credits required = 147 840 000 credits total
Or you can always spend 3$ x 10 (10%) x 128 ultra-rares = 3840$

Modifié par Alex_Dur4and, 31 octobre 2012 - 06:52 .

[Alex_Dur4and]

Alex_Dur4and wrote...

73920 / 60 minutes = 1232 hours to max out your manifest! (if you are either lucky or unlucky)

I have played 800 hours so far and I have completed 96 / 128 of my ultra-rares.

800  =  96
-----      -----
 ??       128

128 x 800 / 96 = 1066

1066 - 800 = 266 hours before I complete my manifest if chances stay the same... So, I guess I'm kinda lucky!

Modifié par Alex_Dur4and, 31 octobre 2012 - 06:43 .

[Bryan Johnson]

JohnBes wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

120 UR to unlock
Let's say the drop rate for UR is 25% in a PSP(it isnt)
This means you would need 480 PSPs
That is 47.52million credits
Lets say we consider gold 82k per match
That is 579.5 gold matches
15min per gold
144hr

So take what part of math you like and figure out what is resonable to you.

But the possibility of that is soooooooo low.

Actually, let's do some math.
So, 120 URs to unlock, drop rate is 25%.

Let's say this lucky dog played for 300 hours exclusively on gold.
He also burst through every gold match in 15 minutes.

Let's say he bought PSP after every match.

So, 300 * 60 / 15 = 1200 gold matches played, therefore 1200 PSPs bought.

Out of every PSP he did (25%)  or didn't (75%) get UR. It's the Bernoulli trial.

Let's calculate the possibility of him maxing every UR.

Pn(k) = Cnk * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), where n=1200, k = 120, p = 0,25    (check the link)

I won't bore you with calculations. The possibility is approximately equal to 6 * 10^(-38) %.

So, should I say it's... improbable?

You are using Bernoulli trial incorrectly in this case, this is used only to find out the probability of exactly 120 successes. You would need to do a sumation of Pn(120) to Pn(1200) to find it out. But given this case it would be just assumed that 1/4 packs would give you a UR.

[anokie]

Ping ping ping ping ping give us the ****g ping

[Mzzl]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

120 UR to unlock
Let's say the drop rate for UR is 25% in a PSP(it isnt)
This means you would need 480 PSPs
That is 47.52million credits
Lets say we consider gold 82k per match
That is 579.5 gold matches
15min per gold
144hr

So take what part of math you like and figure out what is resonable to you.

480 PSP's would cost $1440
This may sound like a ludicrous amount of money that noone would spend on epeen points in an onlin egame, right?

...But in another online game I played a decade ago, the leader of the enemy (and always winning ) clan admitted to spending roughly that amount each month on his mobile bill, just to be logged in the game at any time or place

[bob2.0]

Nobody likes cheaters, OP. We can all agree on that.
But nobody likes a witch hunting busybody, either.

And rest assured that BW already has a script for what I assume you are doing the inefficient way. This is ****ing with their bread and butter.

[rcolol]

I am just over 300 hours and just maxed out my 7th ultra rare, 5 more to go, 3 of them being level 7+.

Modifié par MyWhiteNostrils, 31 octobre 2012 - 07:04 .

[JohnBes]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

You are using Bernoulli trial incorrectly in this case, this is used only to find out the probability of exactly 120 successes. You would need to do a sumation of Pn(120) to Pn(1200) to find it out. But given this case it would be just assumed that 1/4 packs would give you a UR.

Indeed, it's used to find out probability of exactly 120 successes out of 1200 tries.
Why would you need to do summation?

MyWhiteNostrils wrote...

I am just over 300 hours and just maxed out my 7th ultra rare, 5 more to go, 3 of them being level 7+.

Yer lucky dog! I'm jealous.

[berryco]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

Let's say the chance to drop 1 UR is 15% so the chance to drop 2 UR is 15%*15% or 2.25% 

So that means 2.25%^60 so yes I can that is statistically such a small number it will never happen.

You have a better chance of being an astronaut, in a bathtub, struck by lightning while you win the lottery.

You missed the point, any statistic above 0% means that it's possible, regardless of how probable. The number I wound up giving was that it's possible starting around 24 hours of play time. I freely admit that it's so unlikely to happen that I personally doubt any player has or ever will, but it's within the realm of (unlikely) possibilities.

But as we get up to 300 hours of play time, it becomes more and more likely that they can have a maxed manifest.

There are too many players posting that since they personally are at 600+ hours, then it must be statistically unlikely for anyone else to have done it in half the time... Since it's within the realm of possibility of occuring within 24 hours, it's also possible at 300 hours. That's my only point

[spudspot]

JohnBes wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

You are using Bernoulli trial incorrectly in this case, this is used only to find out the probability of exactly 120 successes. You would need to do a sumation of Pn(120) to Pn(1200) to find it out. But given this case it would be just assumed that 1/4 packs would give you a UR.

Indeed, it's used to find out probability of exactly 120 successes out of 1200 tries.
Why would you need to do summation?

To account for cases where you've maxed your URs before buying the last pack? Furthermore, your expectancy value - given 1200 tries and a 25% success rate - would be E = n*p = 1200 * 0,25 = 300. So yeah, such a small probability for having maxed your URs doesn't sound right.

Modifié par spudspot, 31 octobre 2012 - 09:06 .

[sirdario1986]

It's not common, but it's not impossible.
I think I've maxed UR in around 350 hours, not including the last DLCs ones, of course!

[Taritu]

I've got a lot more hours than that and don't have all my ultra-rares unlocked. And for quite a while I've been playing almost nothing but gold. Of course it is /possible/ it's also  highly unlikely, at least if there are a lot of them.  (But then, we don't have the "how many players there are" stats.

Modifié par Taritu, 31 octobre 2012 - 09:01 .

[UnRestrikted]

acester1 wrote...

I'm making a list of suspected credit exploiters which will be sent to bioware.

I think there's a high possibility that who max all UR's under 200 hours can be a cheater.

However, I'm not sure that it's common to max all UR under 300 hours.

What do you think? Do I have to include them in my list?

You need to mind your own business. It's Bioware's job to do this, not yours.

Get yourself together, don't hate.

[Clearly Balkan]

300 hours - I don't think it's possible. I have 600 hours of game play because I love to play this game & from the end of May I'm on Gold all the time & then on Platinum when it was introduced.

I'm not even close in maxing my Manifest.

[CNevarezN]

All I need to tap out is my Beam Rifle (Vll) and Collector SMG (lX). Only weapon I don't have is the Valkyrie.

[niripas]

Bryan Johnson wrote...

120 UR to unlock
Let's say the drop rate for UR is 25% in a PSP(it isnt)
This means you would need 480 PSPs
That is 47.52million credits
Lets say we consider gold 82k per match
That is 579.5 gold matches
15min per gold
144hr

So take what part of math you like and figure out what is resonable to you.

Bryan, don't tease me. I remember some time ago I spent around 23 mills on PSPs and got like 5-6 UR upgrades (I have the log somewhere)...

[PejaStojakovic]

It took me about 500 hours to max my manifest (I still need 3 Volus cards) and I have mostly played gold since the release of ME3.
I also checked the manifest of some guys in my country with a similar N7-ranking (I promote alot so those players have roughly the same hours logged as me) and I have seen complete manifests but also players with 700 hours logged that still need alot of ultra rares.
You can't really label players as cheaters based on time invested in relation to their manifest. There are too many variables to consider.

Modifié par PejaStojakovic, 31 octobre 2012 - 09:25 .

[Impius]

It is even possible with a much lower gameplay time. Bioware and Microsoftpoints.

But even if you would just buy psp with bioware points, it would take "ages" to max it out, since the buy-system with biowarepoints on PC is ****ing extremly slow and sometimes u need to restart game because it hangs.

I admit, i bough already arround 6400 bw-points because i am inpatient, but i am still far away of having maxed out my ur

[Sniper21987]

hell no i still got heaps to unlock and im almost at 300 hours

Modifié par Sniper21987, 31 octobre 2012 - 09:49 .

[Boog_89]

Impossible unless you are a bioware employee, it took me over 300 hours to unlock the cerberus harrier.

[DarkseidXIII]

So, what? You just stalk people and look for suspicious data then narc them out? Get a life loser.

[CronisN7]

the drop rate for a psp UR card is supposedly around 13%. cant find the thread but someone did some fairly extensive testing.

so that means you would need a little more time then the OPs math sugests. but yea there is always the fact they used MS or BW points to max it out, which wouldn't factor into time in game.

[bob2.0]

Random is random.
Right around the time I stopped playing for the summer, I went on an UR drought that lasted 15m credits.