182 réponses à ce sujet

[Clearly Balkan]

thewalrusx wrote...

you have to consider the fact that all URs can be maxed with enough real life money spent, there have been players on BSN state that they have spent $2,000+

From the bottom of my heart, I thank them for that. This is the only reason all ME3 MP DLCs are free.

[CronisN7]

DarkseidXIII wrote...

So, what? You just stalk people and look for suspicious data then narc them out? Get a life loser.

isnt that what a detective does?

[NOME]

JohnBes wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

120 UR to unlock
Let's say the drop rate for UR is 25% in a PSP(it isnt)
This means you would need 480 PSPs
That is 47.52million credits
Lets say we consider gold 82k per match
That is 579.5 gold matches
15min per gold
144hr

So take what part of math you like and figure out what is resonable to you.

But the possibility of that is soooooooo low.

Actually, let's do some math.
So, 120 URs to unlock, drop rate is 25%.

Let's say this lucky dog played for 300 hours exclusively on gold.
He also burst through every gold match in 15 minutes.

Let's say he bought PSP after every match.

So, 300 * 60 / 15 = 1200 gold matches played, therefore 1200 PSPs bought.

Out of every PSP he did (25%)  or didn't (75%) get UR. It's the Bernoulli trial.

Let's calculate the possibility of him maxing every UR.

Pn(k) = Cnk * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k), where n=1200, k = 120, p = 0,25    (check the link)

I won't bore you with calculations. The possibility is approximately equal to 6 * 10^(-38) %.

So, should I say it's... improbable?

Well, you should not have used the bernoulli trial here,

Bernoulli variables are variables that take on only two values where one denotated 0, one denoated 1.
 
With PSPs, you can either get ONE UR, TWO URs, NO UR. There are clearly three possibilities and you should not have used bernoulli trial.

[NOME]

Alex_Dur4and wrote...

 Here is MY analysis...

128 Ultra-rare points
(Talon, Wraith, Javelin, Harrier, Saber, Typhoon, Particle, Col. SMG, Scorpion, Paladin, Indra, B.Widow, Volus Eng and Volus adept)

10% chance per premium specter pack (10 x 99 000 = 990 000 credits)
Every 2 psp you buy 1 jumbo pack  (5 x 33 000 = 165 000 credits)
total = 1 155 000 credits per ultra-rare

average of 70 000 credits per gold game (you don't win EVERY game)

1 155 000 / 70 000 = 1 ultra-rare per 16.5 gold games

30 minutes average per gold game
5 minutes average waiting in the lobby per game

16.5 x 35 minutes = 577.5 minutes per ultra-rare x 128 = 73920 minutes 

73920 / 60 minutes = 1232 hours to max out your manifest! (if you are either lucky or unlucky)

Total credits required = 147 840 000 credits total
Or you can always spend 3$ x 10 (10%) x 128 ultra-rares = 3840$

There are 120URs. Volus CCs are not considered a UR. Devs had said that Volus CCs would not take the slot of a UR weapon. 

[Daimien 06660]

I am at over 328 hours and only buy PSP,and JEP. and I dont even have 1 ultra rare maxer out. In fact in the last month I have only gotten ultra rare cards about 6 times (if you want to count the volus) and instead of giving me the rare cards I don't have I get ammo?

[Catastrophy]

Oh my, Bernoulli at BSN! I knew my lazyness in statistics would catch up with me one day.

[SOG TOUGH]

RNG, it could take 5 minutes.

[Abe-kun]

458H and my the highest UR is Cerberus Harrier in lev. 9...

[spudspot]

NOME wrote...

Well, you should not have used the bernoulli trial here, 

Bernoulli variables are variables that take on only two values where one denotated 0, one denoated 1.
 
With PSPs, you can either get ONE UR, TWO URs, NO UR. There are clearly three possibilities and you should not have used bernoulli trial.

Well the chances of getting two URs in one PSP are small enough for the Bernoulli trial being a good approximation. The problem is that he would have to sum over the probabilities for 120 up to 1200 URs in 1200 packs.  

[DamonD7]

Still, I think it's safe to say that 'common' really doesn't apply here, no.

[Frozen Mind]

I think we missed some variables:
- match success ratio;
- "3 teammates died, I have to solo the rest" ratio;
- EA servers disconnect ratio.

Average time of Gold match is now about 25 mins.
Average UR drop rate from PSP is again about 5%.
Double UR drop rate from PSP is a small value that I have no idea how much, 0.05%?
After few matches we have to buy Jumbo Equipment Packs to replenish some supplies (Medi-Gel, missiles).
Time we need to advance from Bronze, through Silver to Gold, so we can buy SP/PSP at all.

More interesting indicators are:
- average time from people who maxed URs (in exact moment they did that);
- what is the percentage of them from the rest of community (could be named maxing URs probability, because some people just give up);
- how this percentage behave on the timeline - does it increase, decrease or is constant.


EDIT: My statistics:
Time played: 603H 54M 54S
Games played: 1760

Time per game: 20M 35S
Unlocked URs: 82/120 (68%)

Inaccuratly 100% UR in 888H 06M 37S of gameplay (should be less). I don't like farming.

Modifié par Frozen Mind, 31 octobre 2012 - 10:44 .

[Barronator]

SOG TOUGH wrote...

RNG, it could take 5 minutes.

LOL

------

Ok but seriously, I think most of the people with ~300 hours and UR's maxed either paid for a lot of packs (A LOT) or they credit glitched SOOOO hardcore. I'd say farmed Firebase White on platinum back before they patched the map but quite frankly even if they did do that I find ~300 hours hard to believe, yea people can be lucky but I don't think THAT lucky...

[APEX KING19]

they could well have spent real money to get some. so in theory someone could have every ur unlocked withhout playing a second if they spent real money. why dont you just play the game instead of being a supergrass. its really sad that your trying to get people banned just because they have something without knowing the full facts.

[Jay_Hoxtatron]

acester1 wrote...

I'm making a list of suspected credit exploiters which will be sent to bioware.

I think there's a high possibility that who max all UR's under 200 hours can be a cheater.

However, I'm not sure that it's common to max all UR under 300 hours.

What do you think? Do I have to include them in my list?

Just so you know, I maxed my Manifest in about 400 hours. Without real money. I've just always played at least Gold. So yeah, there's a high chance that maxing URs under 300 hours is... odd. That said they could have spent BioWare points.

Modifié par Jay_Hoxtatron, 31 octobre 2012 - 10:43 .

[MVestala]

I've played Multiplayer about 256 hours and my manifest is still quite unfinished so idk

But then again i only play bronze and silver so it might take me 1000 hours for all i know, but what's the hurry ?

Modifié par MVestala, 31 octobre 2012 - 10:45 .

[NOME]

spudspot wrote...

NOME wrote...

Well, you should not have used the bernoulli trial here, 

Bernoulli variables are variables that take on only two values where one denotated 0, one denoated 1.
 
With PSPs, you can either get ONE UR, TWO URs, NO UR. There are clearly three possibilities and you should not have used bernoulli trial.

Well the chances of getting two URs in one PSP are small enough for the Bernoulli trial being a good approximation. The problem is that he would have to sum over the probabilities for 120 up to 1200 URs in 1200 packs.  

Correct me if i am wrong. It has been years since i took statistics. 

I thought omiting a variable like that would only happen asymptotically.

When we have sample sizes that are not large enough, we still have to consider every possibility.  

If we assume one pack gives out one UR, and out of all the packs the player bought, he got 5 double URs. It would affect the result by a great margin. Suppose it is assumed that he got 1 UR out of every 10 packs, if he got 2 URs in one pack, under the assumption, he would be paying 2m for 2 URs where he actually paid for 1m. 1M would be like 12 gold games and 20mins per game would take 4hrs. 5 double URs would mean a margin of 20 hrs, given the player has played only 300+hours, i would think it matters. 

Correct me if i am wrong.  

[Zorinho20_CRO]

Why are you doing this?
I mean,there are people,that are payed to do this.
I´m playing this game from day 1 and have met few leechers and 0 missile glitchers and only thing that I could complain at,are servers.

[nanotm]

when you use real money to buy psp's during an op weekend wiht 255/255/255/255 on ops/cobra/gel/clip then you have a far higher drop rate, out of 5 psp's i received 10 rares and 10 ur's

buying them wiht credits on op weekend i received out of 10 psp's 6 ur's and 30 rares (half of them were kit cards not weapons though >,<)

so in theory so long as you play 100 hours and stock up on the main consumables to 255 your drop rate on rare/ur can be extreamly high

just wish i would stop receiving kits that i already maxed when all my stuff is lvl 20 and i still dont have all the rare/ur kits, weapons, mods,gears so it would be nice to actually get stuff i need rather than stuff i have zero use for

[.458]

One thing I've suspected when I see a low hour player with 25 platinum runs complete and a great manifest is that perhaps they learned on a different account and that it is a second account (lots of platinum could actually fund it). Perhaps combined with some real money spent, but a maxed manifest under 300 hours would still require an enormous amount of cash. FYI, I don't spend cash, I do it the old fashioned way...coffee. Everyone should try coffee in their emergency induction ports.

Modifié par .458, 31 octobre 2012 - 11:21 .

[Leronel]

The interressant thing, is to see that there are really more players who private their N7 HQ in top of leaderboards.

[JohnBes]

spudspot wrote...

JohnBes wrote...

Bryan Johnson wrote...

You are using Bernoulli trial incorrectly in this case, this is used only to find out the probability of exactly 120 successes. You would need to do a sumation of Pn(120) to Pn(1200) to find it out. But given this case it would be just assumed that 1/4 packs would give you a UR.

Indeed, it's used to find out probability of exactly 120 successes out of 1200 tries.
Why would you need to do summation?

To account for cases where you've maxed your URs before buying the last pack? Furthermore, your expectancy value - given 1200 tries and a 25% success rate - would be E = n*p = 1200 * 0,25 = 300. So yeah, such a small probability for having maxed your URs doesn't sound right.

And I don't think I made an arithmetical mistake somewhere. Problem is that URs "capped" at 120 - once you have them all, you stop getting them from PSPs. Bernoulli trial indeed may not be applied here

So yeah, my bad, my bad

[Jay_Hoxtatron]

Leronel wrote...

The interressant thing, is to see that there are really more players who private their N7 HQ in top of leaderboards.

And why would you care about that? If they do cheat, BioWare can see their profiles, even if they made it private.

[Jannic]

Astaiir wrote...

Well, I played under 400 hours and I have like 60% of URs... I didn't cheat. I started to play MP in end of June and then I started to play it more seriously in July. Back then URs were quite often to see... But then Earth DLC came out and you didn't see them anymoer.. there were not double URs in PSP anymore. For example I didn't see any UR for a month... ;___; So many credits wasted, haha.

There still are double UR´s Just got Volus and Sabre and Volus and Harrier in in one pack each  withhin the last weeks.

[blue water]

acester1 wrote...
I'm making a list of suspected credit exploiters which will be sent to bioware.
I think there's a high possibility that who max all UR's under 200 hours can be a cheater.However, I'm not sure that it's common to max all UR under 300 hours.
What do you think? Do I have to include them in my list?

Dear OP, 429h 23m 37s played.  Maxed URs.  Never cheated, but have spent MS Points.  Report me.

Dear Bioware,

Please let me know if you investigate me for making the OPs Suspicious Persons List.  If so, then I'll know that this a community I no longer wish to be a part of.

Sincerely

Modifié par blue water, 31 octobre 2012 - 11:35 .

[Bon3zz1001]

I'm almost at 313 hours and I still don't even have an UR at X.Highest is the Javelin at VII and Harrier / Saber at VI. Hell I still don't even have the new mods / gear maxed out or even the uncommon gear for that matter.