156 réponses à ce sujet

[Lexa_D]

Ramsutin wrote...

Ah so OP won't accept anything but his own word. I'm out.

A nice reading on the subject while you're out:
http://en.wikipedia....umber_generator

[Mozts]

I expect Bioware not to use software from the stone age. Thats about it. I think my scientific calculator have better RNG than that.

[vivanto]

Let's test it.

After taking a dump, don't wipe, only every once in a while.

If you see brown on the paper, then try wiping another 2-3 times, if there's nothing more, then you can put your pants on, if you've got a lucky streak, use the entire paper roll.

[Archie-Scott]

Just by myself, I did find this to be vaguely true. But it's not reliable. If I get one UR, I tend to get a few more immediately after. I got 2 UR's in a PSP then immediately got another 2 in another PSP afterwards

[Xiaolruc]

 I think this thread is color-ist to Blue, Silver, and Gold weapons. 
Besides, there are technically TWO kinds of 'black' weapons: Ultra Rares and Promotional Weapons.
(Seriously, why'd you call them BLACK weapons? It's inaccurate when there are two kinds that can fall under that category.)

 *End sarcasm*

The method in the O.P. only SEEMS to work some of the time. I've gone one spending sprees after one Ultra Rare before and recieved no others. Other times I managed to get a couple of Ultra Rares out of it; there is no constant.

Random Numbers is Random Numbers; just learn to live with it.

*EDIT: P.S. My weapon manifest is almost complete, and I've no complaints.

Modifié par Xiaolruc, 14 novembre 2012 - 09:10 .

[Computron2000]

I use roughly the same method as the OP and it has worked. However it will not work for extended periods so when i hit 5 in a row with 0 URs after getting 4 to 5 in the last 10, it means i should stop. I suspect the OP is right in that there is only a single call for a large number of generations and the results are then stored in some sort of container such as a list or array.

The main reason is that calling a random number generator for every single person buying a recruit, vet, sp, psp and jep at that second will kill your server, particularly on days when something new is released. To save on this, it is likely the calls are made only when the array of numbers are exhausted (also matches the strange stuttering you experience when you buy some packs)

[kipac]

I heard doing push-ups 100 times before buying PSP boosts the possibility of getting UR by .5%!
doing sit-ups and hand stand 200 times will boosts it by .8%!!
piece of cake!

[shadowkinz]

Well he right about one thing. Rng in programs uses algorithms that use so many different checks that to some extent it is not random, but the fact there are so many checks that it becomes pretty random. Just not truly random in nature

[Evo_9]

I tried this and it works

[Torguemada]

I seriously doupt their RNG is that bad, but i do think the store just breaks down sometimes and "forgets" to use the RNG.
As before earth was released i was just hoarding my credits as i new it was coming soon and i did feel like wasting my credits trying to get level ups for my UR:s(i had atleast level 1 of them all) or gears(that where generally speaking rarer then UR:s), until they added PPR and i desided to try and get it and failed, but i noticed all packs where giving me 2-3 gear cards, so i spend a little over million in a row getting 30+ gear cards.

[markshaxted]

Go start flipping a coin... At some point you will get 10 heads/tails back to back. Same thing with your "method"

[Beerfish]

Beware of always trusting random number generators and those that code them. Funny things and mistakes have been made in the past. Unless we know exactly how BioWare operates this thing we are just guessing.

[CmnDwnWrkn]

So the theory is that a random number generator is used to generate a random sequence, which is then used over and over again, completely defeating the purpose of using a random number generator in the first place?

[Lexa_D]

Mozts wrote...

I expect Bioware not to use software from the stone age. Thats about it. I think my scientific calculator have better RNG than that.

Me too, and would\\ve expected that from Sid Meier's guys too. I also would expect people to test the new weapon mods for hard-to-remove bugs before making public, balancing the game with more competent team than bronze players we see in the promo vids, and many other things. Of course, in most cases I would turn out to be wrong - such is life.
It's not as if probability theory made a leap after using pseudoRNG in earlier games - they could've done things better from the very beginning, like true RNG. So no wonder old game industry dogs do old tricks - they might just not know any better.

[Lexa_D]

Thanx for the supporting data to those who posted their experience. I completely understand my assumption does not have strict proof, and I would need to collect loads of data to test the hypothesis - I hopefully expect to max out my URs long before any meaningful history is collected. however, it is perfectly fallible - you can disprove it just by revealing the code to contain no pseudoRNG or by collecting same data showing no statistically siginficant relation. Still, my hypothesis is based on numerous runs from (seems, not only) my experience, not just "expecting Bioware to be smarter than that",

As for people leaving stupid spam, I hope you do understand that reveals only the quality of what's inside your skull, not the quality of the original post.

[Lexa_D]

markshaxted wrote...

Go start flipping a coin... At some point you will get 10 heads/tails back to back. Same thing with your "method"

Please proceed to the same link as the previous underinformed critic:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandom_number_generator

[BjornDaDwarf]

It's been known for months what the proper strategy is: The Art of SPECTENZE - not pooping yourself while holding a fart while buying a pack. 

Geez, you people and your complicated math and strategies.

[stefbomb]

OP has no idea how pseudo-random number generation and random seeds work. This is complete nonsense.

By far the most likely method used in the store is generating the items in a pack by using the time of purchase (in milliseconds, server-side) as seed. This would be repeated for every pack, and even if it were not (e.g. seed created once per entering the store) it would require extensive statistical testing to determine if that seed would give a meaningfully higher chance of getting an UR weapon per pack.

[Heggy]

 It is almost certain that the random number generator is only a pseudo RNG. By this I mean it uses some algorithm or set of them to generate a number which appears random. The only way to have a  true random number generator is to have the number generated based on some random external source, which is simply not worth the resources. 

Your assumption, and pardon me if I'm wrong, is that when you enter the store you get a session code, a seed which is then input into an algorithm to generate your pack results. Further, for what you say to be correct, your seed would have its own inherent probability for generating an ultra rare. 

Such a system is highly exploitable as you suggest here. We do not know the system, the selection processes, or what numbers will actually give you an ultrarare. It would be poor form on the creator's part to build it like that.

A pseudoRNG is not excluded from appearing to have patterns which users may observe and attribute their luck.

Given that the chance, based on some compiled statistics, is that the UR drop rate is about 15% per PSP, so we'll say 7.5% per Rare card in a PSP.

There's about 1/30000 chance of getting 4 URs back to back in PSPs. Given the amount of packs that have been bought by people, easily in the hundreds, perhaps thousands for more major players, it's quite reasonable to assume that a fair amount of people have had such luck. And it's quite reasonable to assume that some people, thanks to randomness will have had even better luck.

Modifié par Heggy, 14 novembre 2012 - 11:25 .

[Kanadood]

Me too, and would\\ve expected that from Sid Meier's guys too.

You goofball. Games like Civ and X-Com don't do truly random results because it prevents save-scumming. It wasn't an oversight, it was them purposefully designing the system to prevent people from saving, trying a move with low % success, and then immediately reloading and trying again if it failed, over and over again.

I don't blame you for not actually putting much thought into how RNG systems work, but I do blame you for assuming nobody else has.

[CapitateGoose]

RNG gives random numbers.

The store decides what to do with the number it gets:
1. ignores it and give you a N7 in a commendation pack.
2. Chooses between 10 L4 ammo cards based on the number.
3. Chooses between 10 L4 ammo cards and 1-2 URs with a very small chance to get a UR.
4. Chooses between 10 L4 ammo cards and a few URs with a higher chance to get a UR.

Buyers may not notice the differences between 2,3,4, but someone or something may tell the Store to switch between modes 2, 3 or 4 (or something in between).

[SweetWilly013]

You do realize that, even with the most basic RNG that uses system time as the random variable, you'd have to buy the packs in much less than a micro-second for this to be valid? (and considering the purchase requests take literally millions-billions of times that time, there's no possible way)

[markshaxted]

Lexa_D wrote...

markshaxted wrote...

Go start flipping a coin... At some point you will get 10 heads/tails back to back. Same thing with your "method"

Please proceed to the same link as the previous underinformed critic:
http://en.wikipedia....umber_generator

Ok, even with that link you provided assuming I have no knowledge about this area, lets analyse your method to see if it holds true and indicates any statistical significance...

You buy a pack and get nothing, move on. You buy a pack get an UR but nothing in the next 2 - 3, move on. Keep repeating this until you get a a run where you maybe get UR's around 50% of the purchases (I think you said 1.3m credits, assuming all PSP's and you got 6 or 7 UR's).

So, IF you get that run out of the first round of purchases then you have just achieved an above average rate. You admit this is a very initial test with a very small sample size so far. However, others have also noticed similar instances to these, I have witnessed similar occurrences in videos. I have also seen many reports about being on a very long dry spell with getting quality items from packs.

so what does this tell us? Nothing other than an experience you witnessed. As you have said we know nothing about how this is actually coded and how it works here and there could be many different options. 

However, your post is the equivalent to what I originally stated, you should be able to see that, regardless of how a RNG or PRNG works. So please don't speak to the quality of my post without making your OP of a sufficient quality as well.

[CapitateGoose]

Pure speculation here, matching my experience:

Store:
-Dear RNG, please give me a number between 1-100, but if it is 7 (the last UR this guy was waiting for months), try again.

or Store:
- Dear RNG, it is N7 day today, give me a number between 1-100, but if it is not 7, you can try again 100 times...... Look at this guy - he is so happy today.

[pit37]

last i take 26 ups and there not blac card and all stupid store for what?