156 réponses à ce sujet

[SOMETHING_FOR_NOTHING]

Lexa_D wrote...

I'm sure someone already posted that, but whatevs, for great justice

Evidently the store uses quasi random sequence when determining the outcome. It generates short number string to determine whether you get Ultra Rare items from the store, and then uses it over and over. Therefore, if you get a Black weapon chances are high to get it in other immediately purchased packs.

So the strategy is: hoard the cash, occasionally buy a (Premium) Spectre Pack. If you get nothing, move along. If you get Black, start spending. No further occurences in next 2-3 packs - might have been a fluke on the first one, move along. Otherwise - spending spree.

Following this method, I recently got 2 double Black cards in a row. Also just now I spent 1.3mn and got some 6-7 Ultra Rares.

Good luck, spend wisely!

OP has a gambling problem.....im pretty sure crazy ppl type like this

[dumael]

Some observations:

Pseudo random number generators take a seed then perform some series of operations (multiplication, divison, shifting etc) to generate a random number.

Unless you know the algorithm used and the initial seed, you can't know the contents of a sequence generally[1].

Furthermore, without knowledge of the algorithm[2] but with my knowledge of typically programming practice, BW did not write their own pRNG and instead rely on the system/library supplied one.

With these observations, I'd hypothesis that any clusters of black cards are simply due to random (not pRNG, though there could be a small effect there) chance. Testing this properly would require a boatload of trials, unless you're a crazy awesome statistician.

TL;DR : no method should increase your chances of black cards. If there is, serious evidence plz.

[1] Certain random number generators are susceptible to "educated guesses" of any particular number. YMMV, but certain three letter organizations rely on such things.

[2] I am willing to guess what the particular setup is *and* put a small sum of money on it.

[vivanto]

stefbomb wrote...

OP has no idea how pseudo-random number generation and random seeds work. This is complete nonsense.

By far the most likely method used in the store is generating the items in a pack by using the time of purchase (in milliseconds, server-side) as seed. This would be repeated for every pack, and even if it were not (e.g. seed created once per entering the store) it would require extensive statistical testing to determine if that seed would give a meaningfully higher chance of getting an UR weapon per pack.

No, not really, instantiating new generators for every query is an antipattern. Practically, there's one or a set of generators created upon server launch, which (assuming there are more) are each an individual lambda functions of their own. Once you query a number, the generator changes state and will provide a sufficiently different value.

Sure, they're completely deterministic on the definition scope, but you can't affect or observe their internal states.

[darkpassenger2342]

This method REALLY WORKS!!!! i tried it, and i got 56 ultra rares in a row.


So, will i make a good spokesperson???

[cowwy]

darkpassenger2342 wrote...

This method REALLY WORKS!!!! i tried it, and i got 56 ultra rares in a row.


So, will i make a good spokesperson???

Not until you hand over those puppies you were going to sacrifice.

[Lexa_D]

Heggy wrote...

 It is almost certain that the random number generator is only a pseudo RNG. By this I mean it uses some algorithm or set of them to generate a number which appears random. The only way to have a  true random number generator is to have the number generated based on some random external source, which is simply not worth the resources. 

Your assumption, and pardon me if I'm wrong, is that when you enter the store you get a session code, a seed which is then input into an algorithm to generate your pack results. Further, for what you say to be correct, your seed would have its own inherent probability for generating an ultra rare. 

Such a system is highly exploitable as you suggest here. We do not know the system, the selection processes, or what numbers will actually give you an ultrarare. It would be poor form on the creator's part to build it like that.

A pseudoRNG is not excluded from appearing to have patterns which users may observe and attribute their luck.

Given that the chance, based on some compiled statistics, is that the UR drop rate is about 15% per PSP, so we'll say 7.5% per Rare card in a PSP.

There's about 1/30000 chance of getting 4 URs back to back in PSPs. Given the amount of packs that have been bought by people, easily in the hundreds, perhaps thousands for more major players, it's quite reasonable to assume that a fair amount of people have had such luck. And it's quite reasonable to assume that some people, thanks to randomness will have had even better luck.

Thank you, very well put. This all could be my luck, I agree, but no easy proof can be provided both in favor and against this hypothesis, so please don't say "proven wrong" etc unless you could present the actual proof.

Worst case if I'm wrong and it's totally random - you get the same outcaome as if regularly buying packs. So from the standpoint of expected mean return feel free to use

[Lexa_D]

darkpassenger2342 wrote...

This method REALLY WORKS!!!! i tried it, and i got 56 ultra rares in a row.


So, will i make a good spokesperson???

You have to yield me the secret!!!

[pit37]

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MicrosoftInternetExplorer4



Dear
Bioware I have question for N7 Typhoon Assault Rafle upgrade because for many
of USP dont have nothig, I obserw thad another player in ranking abaut 300 to
400 have level 4,5,6 my ranking is 2193 what can I do. I spend in game
aproximetly 300 houres and take only ups. Please send my solution if can. Pit37



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[Lexa_D]

Gonna post here my outcomes. If the theory is wrong, I'm just a lucky bastard, so envy me then. Here I ignore the months uncovered by data collection before I stuck to the strat when I got 1-2 URs per 2-3mn of credits.

So, the previously described test was 1.3mn spent (26 gold/UR cards via PSPs), 8 (checked exact progress) URs received. Experimental density of URs = 8/26 = 31%. If theoretical chance to get black card instead of gold is about 14% as devs claimed a while ago (might have been 12%, can't find exact quote), then expected payoff of 26 tests is 3.6. The probability of getting 8 or more successes in a sequence of independent identically distributed tests is 2.2%, which is not that small considering number of purchases out there.

On Tuesday purchased for Volus Sentinel (ugh) thus not stopping after seing no black, got 10 gold cards, zero black. A typical occasion we see daily, probability 22%, expected number of successes 1.4 instead of 0.

Will update.

Modifié par Lexa_D, 22 novembre 2012 - 10:52 .

[k1ngl1ves]

I have many theories, but the one that works for me is:

Enter store. Press tongue to roof of mouth and try to pronounce your ABC's while punching yourself in the crotch. Take off your left shoe and fill it with milk. Whole milk... Not that skim sh*t. Now, while squeezing your right earlobe, throw the shoe out the window. If the shoe lands in a bush, start buying packs. If not, then move on to Plan B.

Plan B:

Remove your shirt and rub Doritos all over your chest until you are a fine shade of orange. Rub your newly orange chest on your tv/monitor until you can barely make out what is visible on the said screen. Punch yourself 3 times in the genitals without whimpering. Now remove your pants and replace them with a lilac tutu. Periwinkle will also work. No green. Blue is right out as well. Now, while twirling in a circle, while singing "Luck Be a Lady Tonight," buy a psp. If you see black, buy like crazy.

Using both these methods, 70% of the time... It works every time. Good luck, and don't worry about what your neighbors think of you. It's not about them. It's about the prize...

[Lexa_D]

whatever turns you on, volus

[Heldarion]

The probability for an UR drop is 10% (never confirmed by devs though), but the gathered data gravitates towards that number.

I remember I heard a rumour how drop rates (not just for the new stuff) are increased somewhat visibly on the day new stuff is released (single weapon release or DLC), so I tested out that theory twice:

1. Retaliation DLC: On the day of release, I opened ~50 PSP's, unlocking 21-23 ultra-rares (don't remember the numbers exactly), unlocking over 100 rare and ultra-rare items (there were triple-rare packs), meaning the drop rate for an ultra-rare was over 20%.

2. Next week, I did the same thing when new kits were released. My memory is very foggy as to the numbers for that occasion, but I'm pretty sure that the drop-rate for UR's was around 15%.

Fast forward to last Tuesday - 3 million credits spent (30 ultra-rares), 3 ultra-rares unlocked. Drop rate of exactly 5%. Next day, I buy 10 PSP's, 3 ultra-rares, 15% drop rate.

There's a bunch of rumours about how unlocking system works too. The most notable I heard of is that RNG chooses an item other than lvl4 ammo (ANY ITEM!) according to its algorithm. If you haven't unlocked it yet, (f.e. Harrier V), it unlocks that for you, if you have, however, randomed Harrier while you already have Harrier X, you will receive lvl4 ammo instead.

The above theory assumes that lvl4 ammo does not, in fact, prevent further unlocks of your weapons. Since you would previously receive character cards instead of lvl4 ammo, the same probably applied for that.

***

As far as the Release day drop rate theory is concerned, I'm willing to say that I've been extremely lucky on two occasions, but pretty unlucky on the third, rounding out the drop-rate numbers. That's probability for ya.

[Lexa_D]

"Release day drop" - a reasonable hypothesis too. BW occasionally alters drop rules, most notable - accursed creature cards plagueing us until midsummer.

[mrcanada]

Call him what you want, but this works for a lot of people, me included and it's relatively consistent.

[Lexa_D]

Lexa_D wrote...

Gonna post here my outcomes. If the theory is wrong, I'm just a lucky bastard, so envy me then. Here I ignore the months uncovered by data collection before I stuck to the strat when I got 1-2 URs per 2-3mn of credits.

So, the previously described test was 1.3mn spent (26 gold/UR cards via PSPs), 8 (checked exact progress) URs received. Experimental density of URs = 8/26 = 31%. If theoretical chance to get black card instead of gold is about 14% as devs claimed a while ago (might have been 12%, can't find exact quote), then expected payoff of 26 tests is 3.6. The probability of getting 8 or more successes in a sequence of independent identically distributed tests is 2.2%, which is not that small considering number of purchases out there.

On Tuesday purchased for Volus Sentinel (ugh) thus not stopping after seing no black, got 10 gold cards, zero black. A typical occasion we see daily, probability 22%, expected number of successes 1.4 instead of 0.

Bought 6 PSPs while shopping for Huntress (durr broken cloak), zero black. That's 12 gold cards more. In between this and previous posts bought 2 separate PSPs - no blacks too. So the current streak goes at least for 26 non-URs. If it was completely random with 14% probability of success, the odds of such outcome would be 2%. Stay tuned.

[CNevarezN]

Heh, that's exactly how I got all of my U.R's. The secret's out!!!!

[Lexa_D]

another batch of data.

3 more empty single PSPs earlier this week, overall 32 non-UR gold cards in a row. Odds around 0.8%

Then today a PPR in 1st PSP, CSMG in 3rd. Spent all cash for 27 PSPs, got 9 URs - that is 16.7% rate, above theoretical average and definitely above my overall historical average.

[dbushik]

All the logic about how the system should work tells me you're nuts...but my personal experience coincides exactly with what you are saying. When I get URs they lmost always come in bunches.

[Lexa_D]

I test the hypothesis of random distribution and see evidence against it. My explanation might not be the right one, but the clustering observations persist.

[Alien Number Six]

......I hate the store. The store is evil. The store breeds baseless speculation. The store is the worst thing about Mass Effect 3 multiplayer. The store has been the topic of endless threads. The store gives you M-8 Avenger upgrades in your Spectre Pack. The store is the reason new players get kicked. The store is in league with Satan. The store voted for Mitt Romney. The store supports the zombie apocalypse. The store was a close personal friend of Hitler. The store is responsible for the downfall of Mayan civilization. The store made the Roanoke colonists disappear. The store is the reason some teenage males are not getting layed. The store has led to divorce in some cases. The store killed JFK. The store keeps your soul in a Premium Spectre Pack......

[Heggy]

Lexa_D wrote...

Bought 6 PSPs while shopping for Huntress (durr broken cloak), zero black. That's 12 gold cards more. In between this and previous posts bought 2 separate PSPs - no blacks too. So the current streak goes at least for 26 non-URs. If it was completely random with 14% probability of success, the odds of such outcome would be 2%. Stay tuned.

For 26 continuous non-URs, assuming 13 premium spectre packs, with a 14% chance of a UR inside any one pack, the probability of your streak is (0.86)^13 =0.14, not 0.02.

[hudder92]

Some people just do not understand what a Random Number Generator is, or how they work. There is no way to cheat the RNG. What you speak of is just total luck. It has nothing to do with a pattern. An RNG resets after every run of the algorithm.

Have you ever seen a slot machine do two jackpot payouts back to back? I doubt it.

I have spent real money on packs and the drops rates aren't any better or worse spending real money. I have received 5 UR's in a row, and I have spent $50 and not received a single UR.

[Kommandant Schaefer]

Lexa_D wrote...
Civilization IV

is that some new kind of ammo?

[Tankcommander]

LegacyOfTheAsh wrote...

Ridiculous that people still think this method works. I have tested it several times as have many others and it does not work.

Funny, I go 40-80 PSP's with nothing, then get 6-9 URs in just a few packs after that.

[born2beagator]

Alien Number Six wrote...

......I hate the store. The store is evil. The store breeds baseless speculation. The store is the worst thing about Mass Effect 3 multiplayer. The store has been the topic of endless threads. The store gives you M-8 Avenger upgrades in your Spectre Pack. The store is the reason new players get kicked. The store is in league with Satan. The store voted for Mitt Romney. The store supports the zombie apocalypse. The store was a close personal friend of Hitler. The store is responsible for the downfall of Mayan civilization. The store made the Roanoke colonists disappear. The store is the reason some teenage males are not getting layed. The store has led to divorce in some cases. The store killed JFK. The store keeps your soul in a Premium Spectre Pack......

No reason to add this.  Not everyone here supported Mr. Hussein Obama and its only asking for trouble.

Modifié par born2beagator, 29 novembre 2012 - 11:05 .