796 réponses à ce sujet

[ssltrain]

PainCakesx wrote...

If it were a slight majority of even a somewhat significant majority, then you'd have a point. I'm sure that 90% weren't actually entirely dissatisfied by the ending (hence sample bias), but the MOE would have to be so outrageously high for it to mean that a majority weren't dissatisfied that it would be little more than asking 2-3 people and calling it a day.

That's my point. 

It's as generalizable to the overall ME3 player population as a poll taken at the GOP convention asking "Is Obama the worst President ever?" is generalizable to the overall US population.

That's my point. I'm not saying I disagree with the poll. I thought the ending was a total pile of horsesh!t.
I'm just saying it's not statistically accurate to make claims regarding the overall ME3 player population based on that poll.

The overall population may very well agree with the poll, but the poll's external validity does not have the staistical power to support such a claim.

Modifié par ssltrain, 23 janvier 2013 - 03:42 .

[Hexley UK]

ssltrain wrote...

Hexley UK wrote...

Thats what MOE takes into account though......

No, it doesn't. MOE is simply a % representation of a poll's p-value sensitivity.

Has nothing to do with the representativeness of the sample.

Tell you what show me a poll with the same sample size that says the opposite.

[3DandBeyond]

PainCakesx wrote...

ssltrain wrote...

PainCakesx wrote...

The MOE would have to be astronomically large (+/- 40%) to indicate anything but overwhelming dissatisfaction of the ending. A MOE of +/- 40% would indicate little more accuracy than just asking 2-3 guys their opinion. 

I highly doubt a poll with 80,000 people responding, even factoring in self selectivity, is anywhere near that inaccurate.

To be fair, that poll does suffer from selection bias. It's not a random sampling of all ME3 players. It's a sampling of people who frequent the BSN (and a few other sites) who were interested/emotional enough to answer the poll questions. Those factors alone imply dispositional similarities among the sample population, thus more confounds.

So, the poll results can only realistically reflect the opinions of people who are cohorts of that sample and cannot be realistically extrapolated to the general ME3 player population.

If it were a slight majority of even a somewhat significant majority, then you'd have a point. I'm sure that 90% weren't actually entirely dissatisfied by the ending (hence sample bias), but the MOE would have to be so outrageously high for it to mean that a majority weren't dissatisfied that it would be little more than asking 2-3 people and calling it a day.

That's my point. 

The bias should favor the game if bias existed.  If the majority of people like the ending, then as fans, they'd be here and would have voted en masse for the game.  It's because this is the game's fansite which is made up of people that own the game.  These are not just likely buyers of the game, these are owners of it.  That means they are predisposed to like ME games and must have some reason for not liking it that would get them to say so.  If the majority liked it, they'd be here too.  It is the fact that that's an overwhelming majority that didn't like it. 


I agree that the sampling here is not representative-it should be heavily biased towards liking the ending. 

Modifié par 3DandBeyond, 23 janvier 2013 - 03:43 .

[PainCakesx]

Agreed, if this final DLC isn't post ending then I'll just call it a day and not buy any of the ME3 DLC.

Given a different dev team is doing ME4, I'll give that one the benefit of doubt. As it stands, I'll probably be done with the ME trilogy.

[Hexley UK]

ssltrain wrote...

PainCakesx wrote...

If it were a slight majority of even a somewhat significant majority, then you'd have a point. I'm sure that 90% weren't actually entirely dissatisfied by the ending (hence sample bias), but the MOE would have to be so outrageously high for it to mean that a majority weren't dissatisfied that it would be little more than asking 2-3 people and calling it a day.

That's my point. 

It's as generalizable to the overall ME3 player population as a poll taken at the GOP convention asking "Is Obama the worst President ever?" is generalizable to the overall US population.

That's my point. I'm not saying I disagree with the poll. I thought the ending was a total pile of horsesh!t.
I'm just saying it's not statistically accurate to make claims regarding the overall ME3 player population based on that poll.

The overall population may very well agree with the poll, but the poll's external validity does not have the staistical power to support such a claim.

Wrong it does support the claim that the majority likely didn't like the ending.

[Fawx9]

ssltrain wrote...

Hexley UK wrote...

Thats what MOE takes into account though......

No, it doesn't. MOE is simply a % representation of a poll's p-value sensitivity.

Has nothing to do with the representativeness of the sample.

I thought MOE was cute girls doing cute things.

Stop trying to trick me with your fancy science and trickery.

Modifié par Fawx9, 23 janvier 2013 - 03:44 .

[PainCakesx]

vivaladricas wrote...

PainCakesx wrote...

ssltrain wrote...

Hexley UK wrote...

Thats what MOE takes into account though......

No, it doesn't. MOE is simply a % representation of a poll's p-value sensitivity.

Has nothing to do with the representativeness of the sample.

Unless this poll was conducted in a forum specifically for people who hate the ending, I have a hard time believing that the results were skewed that badly with 80,000 people responding. 

You don't need an #'s and %'s argument.  They is zero way they make an EC and spend cash if the number of people wasn't of a decent significance.   IMO that is a 2+2 =4.  If it was real small and no chance for losing longterm purchases there is no way they are making an EC, absolutely zero. 

If they think they have a 0% chance of losing longterm purchases, then they've staggeringly misjudged their market.

[ssltrain]

Hexley UK wrote...

Wrong it does support the claim that the majority likely didn't like the ending.

If you believe that, then you have little idea how statistical analysis is done.

[Hexley UK]

PainCakesx wrote...

Agreed, if this final DLC isn't post ending then I'll just call it a day and not buy any of the ME3 DLC.

Given a different dev team is doing ME4, I'll give that one the benefit of doubt. As it stands, I'll probably be done with the ME trilogy.

Same no ME3 DLC to date and I won't be pre-ordering ME4...i'll be waiting for fan reviews of that one before I lay down any cash.

[PainCakesx]

ssltrain wrote...

PainCakesx wrote...

If it were a slight majority of even a somewhat significant majority, then you'd have a point. I'm sure that 90% weren't actually entirely dissatisfied by the ending (hence sample bias), but the MOE would have to be so outrageously high for it to mean that a majority weren't dissatisfied that it would be little more than asking 2-3 people and calling it a day.

That's my point. 

It's as generalizable to the overall ME3 player population as a poll taken at the GOP convention asking "Is Obama the worst President ever?" is generalizable to the overall US population.

That's my point. I'm not saying I disagree with the poll. I thought the ending was a total pile of horsesh!t.
I'm just saying it's not statistically accurate to make claims regarding the overall ME3 player population based on that poll.

The overall population may very well agree with the poll, but the poll's external validity does not have the staistical power to support such a claim.

How is this comparable to the example you posted? 

As I said, if the question were posted on a forum dedicated to people who disliked the ending, then you'd be right. It wasn't, though. 

[Hexley UK]

ssltrain wrote...

Hexley UK wrote...

Wrong it does support the claim that the majority likely didn't like the ending.

If you believe that, then you have little idea how statistical analysis is done.

As I stated previously, provide me with substantial evidence from a credible source to prove the opposite....otherwise anything you say is just hot air.

[3DandBeyond]

vivaladricas wrote...

PainCakesx wrote...


Unless this poll was conducted in a forum specifically for people who hate the ending, I have a hard time believing that the results were skewed that badly with 80,000 people responding. 

You don't need an #'s and %'s argument.  They is zero way they make an EC and spend cash if the number of people wasn't of a decent significance.   IMO that is a 2+2 =4.  If it was real small and no chance for losing longterm purchases there is no way they are making an EC, absolutely zero. 

Exactly.  They saw numbers that were not good-involving money.  It also hit TOR with 400k subscriptions canceled, not all due to TOR being bad itself.

PainCakesx is correct, the BSN is composed of fans.  So they are by definition those that like a game and a dev.  If it was not a majority opinion and a decent sampling all bias should have been the opposite.  At best, the results would have been less divergent.

Modifié par 3DandBeyond, 23 janvier 2013 - 03:48 .

[ME859]

Wait blue babies? I think I didn't walk fast enough into that tube during the destroy ending. And I would take control but that seems like a long term commitment. Now I see the genius of Synthesis, troll the universe, don't stick around to deal with the consequences.

[Priss Blackburne]

Hexley UK wrote...

ssltrain wrote...

PainCakesx wrote...

The MOE would have to be astronomically large (+/- 40%) to indicate anything but overwhelming dissatisfaction of the ending. A MOE of +/- 40% would indicate little more accuracy than just asking 2-3 guys their opinion. 

I highly doubt a poll with 80,000 people responding, even factoring in self selectivity, is anywhere near that inaccurate.

To be fair, that poll does suffer from selection bias. It's not a random sampling of all ME3 players. It's a sampling of people who frequent the BSN (and a few other sites) who were interested/emotional enough to answer the poll questions. Those factors alone imply dispositional similarities among the sample population, thus more confounds.

So, the poll results can only realistically reflect the opinions of people who are cohorts of that sample and cannot be realistically extrapolated to the general ME3 player population.

Thats what MOE takes into account though......

Personaly, The poll results I go by are my friends who share similiar intrests and likes, who only one out of seven of us actually liked the endings. And I don't beleive any of them actually voted on any polls, some of them traded them in but that's about as far as they have gotten to voicing their opinions as far as I know.

[ME859]

Hexley UK wrote...

ssltrain wrote...

Hexley UK wrote...

Wrong it does support the claim that the majority likely didn't like the ending.

If you believe that, then you have little idea how statistical analysis is done.

As I stated previously, provide me with substantial evidence from a credible source to prove the opposite....otherwise anything you say is just hot air.

What do you want a peer reviewed scientifc journal verified by multiple ivy league scientist and statisticians?  Go back and look at the initial reactions to the EC.  Very rarely do you see a rave review, most of the comments border on "eh, it was okay."  If people had enjoyed it you wouldn't have to look so hard to find a vote a support for the current batch of endings.   

Modifié par ME859, 23 janvier 2013 - 03:54 .

[ssltrain]

PainCakesx wrote...

How is this comparable to the example you posted? 

As I said, if the question were posted on a forum dedicated to people who disliked the ending, then you'd be right. It wasn't, though. 

Because the GOP convention isn't necessarily a good representative sample of overall Republican voters. It's simply a sample of GOP members who give enough of a sh!t (i.e. are emotionally invested in) to attend such an event.

Just like a poll conducted on BSN (for the most part) is only representative of ME3 players who are emotionally invested enough in the game to frequent ME-related message boards. That implies that they have much more in common than simply playing ME3, which add more similarities among the population which could influence the way they vote (i.e. confounds) in ways that do not affect ME3 players who do not frequent BSN (and similar sites). 

Using only members from BSN et al for the sample population makes it nearly impossible to control for those confounds.

however, as I said, I personally hated the ending and I like to believe that most other ME3 players did, too. But I have no good proof of that.

Modifié par ssltrain, 23 janvier 2013 - 03:56 .

[Hexley UK]

Priss Blackburne wrote...

Hexley UK wrote...

ssltrain wrote...

PainCakesx wrote...

The MOE would have to be astronomically large (+/- 40%) to indicate anything but overwhelming dissatisfaction of the ending. A MOE of +/- 40% would indicate little more accuracy than just asking 2-3 guys their opinion. 

I highly doubt a poll with 80,000 people responding, even factoring in self selectivity, is anywhere near that inaccurate.

To be fair, that poll does suffer from selection bias. It's not a random sampling of all ME3 players. It's a sampling of people who frequent the BSN (and a few other sites) who were interested/emotional enough to answer the poll questions. Those factors alone imply dispositional similarities among the sample population, thus more confounds.

So, the poll results can only realistically reflect the opinions of people who are cohorts of that sample and cannot be realistically extrapolated to the general ME3 player population.

Thats what MOE takes into account though......

Personaly, The poll results I go by are my friends who share similiar intrests and likes, who only one out of seven of us actually liked the endings. And I don't beleive any of them actually voted on any polls, some of them traded them in but that's about as far as they have gotten to voicing their opinions as far as I know.

Same here, I don't have a single friend who at the very best didn't think the ending was "A bit sh***y but whatever" and at the very worst felt like me that it was a total travesty.

[MegaSovereign]

ME859 wrote...

Wait blue babies? I think I didn't walk fast enough into that tube during the destroy ending. And I would take control but that seems like a long term commitment. Now I see the genius of Synthesis, troll the universe, don't stick around to deal with the consequences.

LOL yea. F that noise. My Shepard saved the galaxy. He's gonna be at the bar for the next couple years. He has no time for kids.

[Hexley UK]

ME859 wrote...

Hexley UK wrote...

ssltrain wrote...

Hexley UK wrote...

Wrong it does support the claim that the majority likely didn't like the ending.

If you believe that, then you have little idea how statistical analysis is done.

As I stated previously, provide me with substantial evidence from a credible source to prove the opposite....otherwise anything you say is just hot air.

What do you want a peer reviewed scientifc journal verified by multiple ivy league scientist and statisticians?  Go back and look at the initial reactions to the EC.  Very rarely do you see a rave review, most of the comments border on "eh, it was okay."  If people had enjoyed it you wouldn't have to look so hard to find a vote a support for the current batch of endings.   

Yea I know m8, he's the one arguing that people liked it not me.

[Killdren88]

I so do hope that it is the ending. Because if not. That YouTube video was just mean teasing me with blue children...

[ME859]

[quote]vivaladricas wrote...

[quote]PainCakesx wrote...

If they think they have a 0% chance of losing longterm purchases, then they've staggeringly misjudged their market.

[/quote]

I would feel cozy betting they lose 500k to a mil on ME4 considering the next PEW PEW PEW DLC, whatever it is.  

ME3 is at 4.5 mil, pretty close anyway to that from what I see.  

So next one I would bet 1k right now it won't cross 4 mil.  Unless they really do an about face.  

That is clearly an opinion if the other side folks read that, I feel confident that will be the case though.  I say the hardcores would be depleted mostly and the casual gamers that pay hardly any attention to the story and like the PEW PEW only will still buy it up.  

[/quote]

Resident Evil 6 says hello.

[/quote]
“Sales of the major new title Resident Evil 6[/i] were initially strong, but subsequently weakened,” reads Capcom’s advisory to investors, “As a result, sales for this title are certain to fall short of the plan.”
Capcom’s expectations for Resident Evil 6[/i] were certainly ambitious. At the beginning of the fiscal year, Capcom expected the latest entry in its long-running horror series to sell 7 million copies, more than three times the sales expectations for its closest expected bestseller, DmC: Devil May Cry[/i]. The expectation wasn’t unwarranted, however. Resident Evil 5 [/i]sold 5 million copies during its first two months of availability in 2009, a sell-through rate of 100 percent of the companies first shipment of the game.

Read more: http://www.digitaltr.../#ixzz2IleHUn4p 
[/quote]

Strong initial sales don't mean anything nor does having a legacy in this industry.  It might allow you to mail in one game even two, but eventually it catches up to you.  And if ME3 has 4.5 million sales then it is a failure.  A huge failure. ME3 should be the type of game shooting for no less then 7 million and really aiming for 10 million.  

[PainCakesx]

Killdren88 wrote...

I so do hope that it is the ending. Because if not. That YouTube video was just mean teasing me with blue children...

What's this video? I seem to have missed out.

[Killdren88]

PainCakesx wrote...

Killdren88 wrote...

I so do hope that it is the ending. Because if not. That YouTube video was just mean teasing me with blue children...

What's this video? I seem to have missed out.

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