416 réponses à ce sujet

[AresKeith]

lolxbox

[sympathy4sarenreturns]

Gibb_Shepard wrote...

Certainly have no qualms with the banning of second hand games. That **** cheated devs out of their money and gave it to companies that will likely be superseded by digital distribution in the next decade.

So used car salesmen screw car companies, too? It'll be interesting, if your estimate is accurate, to observe the consequences of spurning basic, simplistic consumer demand. Every business analyst has said such a move would be catastrophic.

[Sabbatine]

Fast Jimmy wrote...

LOL So... the answer to rebel against an always online machine controlled by Microsoft is... to have an always online machine controlled by Microsoft?

Seems legit.

It sounds like you profoundly misunderstand what a PC is if that sentence describes your actual belief.

[naughty99]

sympathy4sarenreturns wrote...

Gibb_Shepard wrote...

Certainly have no qualms with the banning of second hand games. That **** cheated devs out of their money and gave it to companies that will likely be superseded by digital distribution in the next decade.

So used car salesmen screw car companies, too? It'll be interesting, if your estimate is accurate, to observe the consequences of spurning basic, simplistic consumer demand. Every business analyst has said such a move would be catastrophic.

There is no depreciation of value in used data files. The value of a new car vs. used car is quite different, however.

In my view, the overall trend is eventually moving toward a model where your local hardware is not necessarily that powerful, but remote servers (along the lines of Nvidia GRID, or Sony's Gaikai) render the games and stream them to you, and most people either pay a monthly subscription, like Netflix, or play free games supported by microtransactions.

I think the console manufacturers are going to have a really tough transition this time, used game policies may play a part in it, but if you look at the adoption rate for the PS3 and Xbox360, there is going to be a period of at least a few years where the installed base for PS4 and Durango is going to be very low, yet publishers will be releasing lots of new next gen multiplatform games that aren't going to run on the old generation consoles, but they will run on our desktops and laptops, even some tablets and SmartTVs. 

Even if next gen multiplatform games turn out to be more demanding in some way, on PC you still have so many scalable options, whereas MS and Sony will ensure these new games do not run at all on the old consoles, so they can persuade console gamers to upgrade. People don't buy new consoles because of a list of hardware specs, they buy them because they want to play the new games.

The Xbox360 launched in November 2005. It took five long years for the installed base to reach 50 million, in December 2010. The PS3 did not even reach an installed base of 50 million units until 2011. How long do you think it will take for the next gen Xbox and PS4 to get to this level? My guess is at least three to four years, if they even reach that level. 

Meanwhile, the Steam client already has an installed base of 60 million people gaming on their laptops and desktops and it is the fourth largest user of Internet bandwidth in the world. This will dwarf the next gen console installed base for at least the next few years. If you want to sell 25 million copies of the next-gen CODBLOPS, and there are only a few million people total playing on Durango and PS4, it's not going to happen without selling a lot of PC copies as well.

Modifié par naughty99, 08 février 2013 - 09:00 .

[Bryy_Miller]

This will get turned over so fast.

So fast.

[Milan92]

Meh I don't care. I never buy used games and I always have internet acess. Should it be down for a while then I can always game on my pc.

[Fast Jimmy]

naughty99 wrote...

sympathy4sarenreturns wrote...

Gibb_Shepard wrote...

Certainly have no qualms with the banning of second hand games. That **** cheated devs out of their money and gave it to companies that will likely be superseded by digital distribution in the next decade.

So used car salesmen screw car companies, too? It'll be interesting, if your estimate is accurate, to observe the consequences of spurning basic, simplistic consumer demand. Every business analyst has said such a move would be catastrophic.

There is no depreciation of value in used data files. The value of a new car vs. used car is quite different, however.

In my view, the overall trend is eventually moving toward a model where your local hardware is not necessarily that powerful, but remote servers (along the lines of Nvidia GRID, or Sony's Gaikai) render the games and stream them to you, and most people either pay a monthly subscription, like Netflix, or play free games supported by microtransactions.

I think the console manufacturers are going to have a really tough transition this time, used game policies may play a part in it, but if you look at the adoption rate for the PS3 and Xbox360, there is going to be a period of at least a few years where the installed base for PS4 and Durango is going to be very low, yet publishers will be releasing lots of new next gen multiplatform games that aren't going to run on the old generation consoles, but they will run on our desktops and laptops, even some tablets and SmartTVs. 

Even if next gen multiplatform games turn out to be more demanding in some way, on PC you still have so many scalable options, whereas MS and Sony will ensure these new games do not run at all on the old consoles, so they can persuade console gamers to upgrade. People don't buy new consoles because of a list of hardware specs, they buy them because they want to play the new games.

The Xbox360 launched in November 2005. It took five long years for the installed base to reach 50 million, in December 2010. The PS3 did not even reach an installed base of 50 million units until 2011. How long do you think it will take for the next gen Xbox and PS4 to get to this level? My guess is at least three to four years, if they even reach that level. 

Meanwhile, the Steam client already has an installed base of 60 million people gaming on their laptops and desktops and it is the fourth largest user of Internet bandwidth in the world. This will dwarf the next gen console installed base for at least the next few years. If you want to sell 25 million copies of the next-gen CODBLOPS, and there are only a few million people total playing on Durango and PS4, it's not going to happen without selling a lot of PC copies as well.

These are all good points, but I'd like to point out one major flaw... you assume a sale lost to the consoles because of the next gen switch would automatically go to the PC. But that's not the case. When we had the last gen consoles come out, we did not see a spike in PC gaming while people who did not want to buy next gen consoles and when there wasn't a large group of games to buy. It remained roughly the same.

http://en.wikipedia....in_video_gaming
http://en.wikipedia....in_video_gaming
http://en.wikipedia....in_video_gaming
http://en.wikipedia....in_video_gaming

If console sales don't transfer to the new consoles, then they are LOST. People don't say "well, I don't feel like pouring money into buying a new console... so let me pour money into making my PC game-ready!" They say "I don't feel like pouring money into buying a new console... so I'm going to watch a movie instead." There isn't an inherently fluid demand for games that requires people to obtain them from somewhere else. They will just say "Meh. Nothing is coming out this year that really blows my socks off. I think I'll just skip." 

This isn't to spurn a console vs. PC war, just something I thought I'd point out. I've heard many PC players herald everything about the next gen consoles as a great migration to the PC gaming platform... and I just don't think the numbers add up to support that.


Also, the value of used software DOES go down. Or, at least, the value of software after its release drops significantly. So a "used" digital version of GTA 4 may not have intrinsicly less value that a new one, but you would not pay $60 for a copy of GTA 4 right now, because it is a game that is many years old. So in that regard, it is quite similar to other phyical products, like cars.

[Brockololly]

Fast Jimmy wrote...
I can't imagine there would be no recourse at all for rented or used games. I mean... this alone would put a company like Gamefly out of business overnight.

There is a reason why Gamefly has started into PC digital downloads and same with Gamestop buying Impulse for their digital download service. Its been the same deal with movie rental stores when Netflix and cable on demand pay per view movies.

TheBlackBaron wrote...

As an avid user of Steam and GOG sales, I agree.

Yeah, I can't think of the last PC game I bought a physical copy of... probably Dragon Age 2, now that I think of it.

The catch with consoles going to some sort of always online or favoring digital downloads is that unlike PC, I don't know that there is as much competition on closed consoles. So you'd likely be stuck with only getting your games from MS or Sony and not have the choice of going to Amazon, Steam, Origin, Gamefly, Green Man Gaming, Impulse, GOG or any of the other digital download outlets on PC.

And that's why digital downloads work so well on PC- because you have frequent and drastic sales and healthy competition between the various services. That kind of negates any loss you might have from not being able to trade in or sell a used PC game, because chances are, you can get a "new" copy of a PC game digitally for even less than you would if you were getting a used console game. Probably sooner after launch too.

Fast Jimmy wrote...
If console sales don't transfer to the new consoles, then they are LOST.  People don't say "well, I don't feel like pouring money into buying a  new console... so let me pour money into making my PC game-ready!" They  say "I don't feel like pouring money into buying a new console... so I'm going to watch a movie instead." There isn't an inherently fluid demand for games that requires people to obtain them from somewhere else. They will just say "Meh. Nothing is coming out this year that really blows  my socks off. I think I'll just skip."

This is absolutely true too. You might see some people hold off on new consoles for various reasons. Maybe their gaming needs are perfectly suited by their new Ipad or Iphone. If somebody is shelling out hundreds of dollars every couple of years for a new phone, maybe thats less money they'll be willing to spend on a new console?

The gaming environment has certainly changed where you have various types of technology vying for people's money and time. I think nextgen consoles will likely do well, but I don't necessarily think they're a guaranteed success. PC is definitely part of that equation though too. I 've always gamed on my PC to some extent, but I also used to have tons of consoles. This generation is the first one where I never bought a console- I just did my gaming on PC. Any console exclusives I'd play when I'd be over at a friend's place. With Steam in an even more powerful position, I think you'll possibly see more of that though in nextgen- people that have made the jump to PC gaming might not come back to consoles; they might just stick with PCs as their primary gaming device, especially with things like Big Picture Mode, making PC gaming in the living room on a TV more accessible and viable.

Fast Jimmy wrote...
Also, the value of used  software DOES go down. Or, at least, the value of software after its  release drops significantly. So a "used" digital version of GTA 4 may  not have intrinsicly less value that a new one, but you would not pay  $60 for a copy of GTA 4 right now, because it is a game that is many  years old. So in that regard, it is quite similar to other phyical  products, like cars.

The thing with digital distribution on PC at least is that the ability for companies to put on frequent and varied sales makes it so you can easily pick up games of all sorts for cheap, which is much harder to do with a physical copy.

Modifié par Brockololly, 08 février 2013 - 02:43 .

[wolfsite]

This will kill the collection market after the console is discontinued unless the make a patch when the system is at the end of it's life cycle or a 3rd party finds a way around the lockout.

[happy_daiz]

Meh. I honestly don't care about this stuff. Our two current XBoxes are always connected, and we don't buy used games (only buy new).

So...yeah, no problem here. Will we buy two more XBoxes when the next gen comes out? Of course we will.
 
Preorder not cancelled.  Hmm, I wonder if you can preorder...

Modifié par happy_daiz, 08 février 2013 - 03:01 .

[Eternal Phoenix]

I don't believe these rumors but it matters little to me anyway if they came true as I don't have intentions on buying a next gen computer. If I were to buy one, it would be years later and would depend upon this rumor being false. Still though, the PC would remain as my main gaming system.

Stupid dirty console gaming peasants. You better start praying to us, the glorious sexy PC master race, we might just hear your prayers.

Modifié par Elton John is dead, 08 février 2013 - 03:06 .

[naughty99]

Fast Jimmy wrote...

naughty99 wrote...

sympathy4sarenreturns wrote...

Gibb_Shepard wrote...
Certainly have no qualms with the banning of second hand games. That **** cheated devs out of their money and gave it to companies that will likely be superseded by digital distribution in the next decade.

So used car salesmen screw car companies, too? It'll be interesting, if your estimate is accurate, to observe the consequences of spurning basic, simplistic consumer demand. Every business analyst has said such a move would be catastrophic.

There is no depreciation of value in used data files. The value of a new car vs. used car is quite different, however.

In my view, the overall trend is eventually moving toward a model where your local hardware is not necessarily that powerful, but remote servers (along the lines of Nvidia GRID, or Sony's Gaikai) render the games and stream them to you, and most people either pay a monthly subscription, like Netflix, or play free games supported by microtransactions.

I think the console manufacturers are going to have a really tough transition this time, used game policies may play a part in it, but if you look at the adoption rate for the PS3 and Xbox360, there is going to be a period of at least a few years where the installed base for PS4 and Durango is going to be very low, yet publishers will be releasing lots of new next gen multiplatform games that aren't going to run on the old generation consoles, but they will run on our desktops and laptops, even some tablets and SmartTVs. 

Even if next gen multiplatform games turn out to be more demanding in some way, on PC you still have so many scalable options, whereas MS and Sony will ensure these new games do not run at all on the old consoles, so they can persuade console gamers to upgrade. People don't buy new consoles because of a list of hardware specs, they buy them because they want to play the new games.

The Xbox360 launched in November 2005. It took five long years for the installed base to reach 50 million, in December 2010. The PS3 did not even reach an installed base of 50 million units until 2011. How long do you think it will take for the next gen Xbox and PS4 to get to this level? My guess is at least three to four years, if they even reach that level. 

Meanwhile, the Steam client already has an installed base of 60 million people gaming on their laptops and desktops and it is the fourth largest user of Internet bandwidth in the world. This will dwarf the next gen console installed base for at least the next few years. If you want to sell 25 million copies of the next-gen CODBLOPS, and there are only a few million people total playing on Durango and PS4, it's not going to happen without selling a lot of PC copies as well.

These are all good points, but I'd like to point out one major flaw... you assume a sale lost to the consoles because of the next gen switch would automatically go to the PC. But that's not the case. When we had the last gen consoles come out, we did not see a spike in PC gaming while people who did not want to buy next gen consoles and when there wasn't a large group of games to buy. It remained roughly the same.

http://en.wikipedia....in_video_gaming
http://en.wikipedia....in_video_gaming
http://en.wikipedia....in_video_gaming
http://en.wikipedia....in_video_gaming

If console sales don't transfer to the new consoles, then they are LOST. People don't say "well, I don't feel like pouring money into buying a new console... so let me pour money into making my PC game-ready!" They say "I don't feel like pouring money into buying a new console... so I'm going to watch a movie instead." There isn't an inherently fluid demand for games that requires people to obtain them from somewhere else. They will just say "Meh. Nothing is coming out this year that really blows my socks off. I think I'll just skip." 

This transition is going to be a little different than the previous one. Back in 2005, there was not an installed base of 60 million people buying PC games on Steam, there were not these alternatives like Nvidia GRID, iOS, Android, CryEngine3 browser games, etc. At that time, if you wanted to run AAA games on your PC you needed a relatively expensive gaming desktop. 

I certainly don't think people are necessarily going to go out and upgrade the family PC to add gaming cards, etc., just that there are going to be more people buying Steam downloads for the next gen AAA games, simply because there won't be as many people with next gen consoles. There is some fluidity in terms of where people spend their monthly disposable income for entertainment products, but if there are hundreds of millions of consumers who buy at least one or two AAA games per year, they are not all going to suddenly stop buying games for three years.

Apart from the early adopters that will rush to pick up the new consoles, I'm guessing a lot of folks who are into gaming and might have owned one of the previous consoles might also be pleasantly surprised to see the crappy laptop with integrated Haswell graphics they buy for school or work next year will run these fancy next gen games at 1080p, or the SmartTV they buy two or three years down the road.

If I were a senior person at Sony or MS, I would try to find some possible way for people using the old consoles to pay a monthly fee to run next gen games streaming from a remote server. No idea if that would even be possible on that hardware, but otherwise at least for a few years they give up a huge installed base, and it will be tough to recover.

The Wii has been the top-selling console for quite some time, with currently nearly 100 million installed base, compared to around 75 million for Xbox360 and PS3. The successor to the Wii, the Wii-U has sold only 3 million units so far, and sales of games for the Wii-U are obviously nowhere near the levels of the Wii. Nintendo hopes to reach 50 million by 2016, but I'm not so sure they will get there that quickly.

Modifié par naughty99, 08 février 2013 - 06:56 .

[AshedMan]

Microsoft is slowly digging their own grave and I'm not just referring to this. They've made some fundamental flawed decisions over the last few years that are starting to erode their hold on consumers.

[Sabbatine]

naughty99 wrote...

There is no depreciation of value in used data files. The value of a new car vs. used car is quite different, however.

Great post but I think the above quoted isn't quite accurate.

The value of software and data does depreciate the same way an unused brand new car will depreciate even if it remains unused.  For games with a multiplayer component there is also an over all depreciation as the online community shrinks and eventually fades away but this isn't limited to just people who own a used copy though in many ways these people actually add value back into the game if they play online.

It's also worth mentioning that the current model used for some games has built in depreciation in the form of online passes and other dlc/content that is only free to the original owner of the game.

[Captain Crash]

"Confirmed"


even though Microsoft have yet to announce any details about their new XBox...

[That one guy with the face]

you know, I specificly made a forum for info like this: "The Next-Gen Console Topic". Not sure why you added another forum for this.

[naughty99]

Sabbatine wrote...

naughty99 wrote...

There is no depreciation of value in used data files. The value of a new car vs. used car is quite different, however.

Great post but I think the above quoted isn't quite accurate.

The value of software and data does depreciate the same way an unused brand new car will depreciate even if it remains unused.  For games with a multiplayer component there is also an over all depreciation as the online community shrinks and eventually fades away but this isn't limited to just people who own a used copy though in many ways these people actually add value back into the game if they play online.

It's also worth mentioning that the current model used for some games has built in depreciation in the form of online passes and other dlc/content that is only free to the original owner of the game.

I suppose my meaning is that it doesn't depreciate in value in comparison to new data files. 

Videogames have extremely high price elasticity.  A new or used game may have different values to different consumers, but there is a sort of general tendency where if you reduce the price, sales shoot up. You can buy an old game on Steam that has never been used for $5.  The value of a "used" digital copy of the same game is not going to be much different from the value of the new digital copy.  

However, for the individual who plays the game, after you finish it, the personal value is very low unless it has features like multiplayer or mods that keep you playing for a long time. What's to stop people from buying the new Bioshock game for $60 at launch and then re-selling it after a week to people who would otherwise still be willing to pay $60. The value to the second owner is the same as if it were a pristine digital copy. The fact that someone else "used" those bits and bytes did not reduce the value.  

Modifié par naughty99, 08 février 2013 - 04:38 .

[slimgrin]

 look on the bright side, you get a new Kinect.

[happy_daiz]

^ *cringes* I'm a 360 player, and I think the Kinect is an abomination. That is all.

Modifié par happy_daiz, 08 février 2013 - 06:01 .

[Seboist]

Game aren't better with Kinect?!

[Steelcan]

Please don't be true.

[fiendishchicken]

Guess I'm switching to Sony.

That's ridiculous. Half of my library is used games.

[Costin_Razvan]

fiendishchicken wrote...

Guess I'm switching to Sony..

Did you forget, Sony is going to do the same thing.

[Silcron]

ReconTeam wrote...

My source tells me the next Xbox is actually a robot.

My source says that if you owned the 3 ME games for xbox 360 you can unlock EDI's voice for it