Some brutal math regarding Ultra-Rare drop rates -- BioWare, please take a look at this <Updated Mar.31 with MORE math!>
#276
Posté 15 mars 2013 - 01:17
#277
Posté 15 mars 2013 - 02:12
#278
Posté 15 mars 2013 - 03:35
Romann9944 wrote...
sliverofamoon wrote...
jordie3000 wrote...
Wendig wrote...
I know people say increasing the UR drop rate would cause players to stop playing. But spending 2.5 million credits and getting nothing make's me want to quit just the same.
/signed*
+1
+1. I played a lot while I was maxing my rares. And then I continued playing a lot gunning for BotB. Now...well, my averages are way, way, way down because my short terms rewards have become weekly matters I only see after hours and hours and hours of play, while my long-term reward I'll probably never, ever get to before the servers shut down.
And as anyone who does any work whatsoever designing games can tell you, it's important to have both short-term and long-term rewards in a game.
#279
Posté 17 mars 2013 - 05:08
But hey, at least I get WARP ROUNDS IV and a FEMALE HUMAN VANGAURD in nearly ALL of my 99k packs. >_>
Modifié par Linkman428, 17 mars 2013 - 05:12 .
#280
Posté 17 mars 2013 - 05:16
#281
Posté 17 mars 2013 - 05:27
#282
Posté 17 mars 2013 - 05:38
#283
Posté 19 mars 2013 - 12:46
Say for example one who just started buying PSPs or does not have any UR should have a 25% chance whereas one who has almost maxed out may get less than 10% chance for UR drop.
No need for changing the pricing of PSPs or improving the drop rates for every one.
#284
Posté 29 mars 2013 - 08:57
Seriously, loads of people leaving just from the BSN alone. Imagine the non-forumites.
#285
Posté 29 mars 2013 - 09:02
#286
Posté 29 mars 2013 - 09:03
/signed
BioWare please do something about it
Modifié par jackjj, 29 mars 2013 - 09:03 .
#287
Posté 29 mars 2013 - 09:04
N7 Panda wrote...
The problem is, some/many of the non-forumites probably spent at least some if not a lot of IRL money in a last ditch attempt to actually get some UR weapons.
That too. I forgot that was even an option.
By the way, if UR drop rates really are 10%, then the average UR upgrade would cost you about $30 USD.
Anyway, I know support for this game is over, but BioWare really needs to do something about this, and quick. The playerbase is going to go on a rapid decline if it hasn't already.
#288
Posté 29 mars 2013 - 09:30
#289
Posté 29 mars 2013 - 09:52
#290
Posté 29 mars 2013 - 10:14
DullahansXMark wrote...
N7 Panda wrote...
The problem is, some/many of the non-forumites probably spent at least some if not a lot of IRL money in a last ditch attempt to actually get some UR weapons.
That too. I forgot that was even an option.
By the way, if UR drop rates really are 10%, then the average UR upgrade would cost you about $30 USD.
Anyway, I know support for this game is over, but BioWare really needs to do something about this, and quick. The playerbase is going to go on a rapid decline if it hasn't already.
Players base is already dead.....bioshock gears of war judgement and the grind with no reward. I play maybe 3-5 games a week used to play 3-5 hours a day. I decided grinding for 12 million credits for the last 12 ur I need from commedation packs werent worth da effort. It doesnt help that when I do play the pugs are so bad games take 35-40 minutes for gold and platinum pugs are worse. Rip ME3 was fun though.
#291
Posté 29 mars 2013 - 10:58
raynebc wrote...
I'd like to at least get one of each ultra rare. Since I only have the Eagle maxed out, odds of getting the venom shotgun is 1/20 ultra rares. Assuming a generous ultra rare rate of 1 out of every 6 arsenal packs, that could take a very long time.
That's all I want. I just want a method of getting guns I don't have without the possibility of literally maxing every other UR gun I own. I mean, it's unlikely, but highly possible to have everything but, say, the Lancer at X before you finally get a Lancer I. Pulling from a personal example, do you know what promo weapons I had before I finally got a Valiant I? Eagle V. Valkyrie VI. Hurricane IX. Crusader X. It took me almost a year of playing to finally get a Valiant. And there were only four weapons to pick from for a long time, and even at the most there were only five options. That's a 20% chance of getting a Valiant (25% for the first 15 operations). It took me 28 operations to finally get a Valiant. So taking the 27 operations before that, there were overall about 125 chances for me to roll a Valiant once. 1/125? That basically rounds out to a 0.8% chance of me having not gotten a Valiant up to that point. Can you believe that such a thing was possible?
And that's only with 4-5 weapons! There are now 21 in a completely different, completely random pool. Assuming you're lucky enough to draw an Ultra-Rare from a pack (I know I'm not), you still only have a 1/21 chance of getting what you want. That's not a good feeling.
Modifié par DullahansXMark, 29 mars 2013 - 10:59 .
#292
Posté 29 mars 2013 - 11:18
DullahansXMark wrote...
Okay, so we now have 21 Ultra-Rare weapons in the pool. To get a weapon maxed you have to unlock it ten times, so that's a total of 210 Ultra-Rares to unlock. The general consensus is that Ultra-Rare drop rates in PSPs (the other two 99K packs are only marginally higher) is about 10% (some say more, some say less). One in ten PSPs would round that out to about 2100 PSPs, give or take.
That may not seem like a whole lot on paper. But let me add something: to buy all of those packs one would have to spend 207,900,000 credits (again, give or take). Let's put this another way: to go from 0 Ultra-Rare unlocks to 210, someone would have to play 1386 Platinum matches with extraction. If a normal Platinum match takes about 25 minutes to complete, that's 34650 minutes of playtime, or 577 hours and 30 minutes of solid Platinum play. (You could pull the "speedrun" card, but not everyone knows how to do those.)
All I'm saying, is that the current drop rates are far too demanding. Please consider increasing the drop rate in the future.
Been there and done that.
Maxed all URs.
The RNG prolongs the time a player stays in the game. Make the chances better, and a player is also highly likely to leave the game faster. The number of players, who leave the game, due to RNG frustration, is acceptable compared to the number of players who will leave the game once their manifest is maxed, which will result in game lobbies taking longer to fill up.
#293
Posté 29 mars 2013 - 11:18
#294
Posté 30 mars 2013 - 01:22
Got my first Ultra-rare in ages just now. Proud member of the Lancer I club. Only took 3.3 million credits to do it. Meanwhile, the Warp Ammo IV just keeps on growing...
#295
Posté 30 mars 2013 - 01:34
#296
Posté 30 mars 2013 - 04:32
Martukis wrote...
Yeah, that seems about right... Only the averages, if based in statistics, only go to explain how often you can expect an ultra rare if you extend the process to infinity - which the time is rather close to. I've got 85 hours of multiplayer, not platinums, and one ultra rare unlock. I've spent all my credits on 99k premium spectre packs, and I've got a volus engineer, wonderful.
With that little time spent you can hardly be surprised. IIRC 800 hours is the usual maxing zone.
#297
Posté 30 mars 2013 - 04:41
#298
Posté 30 mars 2013 - 04:44
Djarknaein wrote...
You fotgot to include a double ur chance so your numbers are flawed.
Each PSP has a 10% chance of containing 1 UR, and a 1% chance of containing two URs. The average PSP does not even contain a UR, and the average PSP that does contain a UR usually only has 1 in it.
I based this on the averages, so no, my numbers are not flawed.
#299
Posté 30 mars 2013 - 04:48
bioware 1 last wish! chance ultra rares to just rare!!!!!!!
#300
Posté 30 mars 2013 - 04:50
Eugenesys wrote...
DullahansXMark wrote...
Okay, so we now have 21 Ultra-Rare weapons in the pool. To get a weapon maxed you have to unlock it ten times, so that's a total of 210 Ultra-Rares to unlock. The general consensus is that Ultra-Rare drop rates in PSPs (the other two 99K packs are only marginally higher) is about 10% (some say more, some say less). One in ten PSPs would round that out to about 2100 PSPs, give or take.
That may not seem like a whole lot on paper. But let me add something: to buy all of those packs one would have to spend 207,900,000 credits (again, give or take). Let's put this another way: to go from 0 Ultra-Rare unlocks to 210, someone would have to play 1386 Platinum matches with extraction. If a normal Platinum match takes about 25 minutes to complete, that's 34650 minutes of playtime, or 577 hours and 30 minutes of solid Platinum play. (You could pull the "speedrun" card, but not everyone knows how to do those.)
All I'm saying, is that the current drop rates are far too demanding. Please consider increasing the drop rate in the future.
Been there and done that.
Maxed all URs.
The RNG prolongs the time a player stays in the game. Make the chances better, and a player is also highly likely to leave the game faster. The number of players, who leave the game, due to RNG frustration, is acceptable compared to the number of players who will leave the game once their manifest is maxed, which will result in game lobbies taking longer to fill up.
Normally I'd agree with that, but every week one BSN member gives up on this game because of how impossible the mere thought of maxing their manifest is. That might not seem like much, but the BSN doesn't even compose 1% of the playerbase (at least, I haven't seen 300 different people on this section of the forum). For every 1 BSN member that leaves there might be 99 other players that leave the game around the same time for the same reasons. And that's just not good.
I'm not saying to make it so that URs are something you can max just by playing a couple Gold games on the weekends, I'm just saying that drop rates really need some tweaking, because people are leaving this game in droves because of it.





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