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Some brutal math regarding Ultra-Rare drop rates -- BioWare, please take a look at this <Updated Mar.31 with MORE math!>


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#301
Nova-SheperdXD

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Yes, just dear god yes. Now that the N7 weapons have been added to the UR pool, it's going to take much longer to max everything out and by that time the servers would be shut down. In a Pyrrhic victory fashion.

/signed

#302
Mr_Adlib

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SeitenHekireki wrote...

I'll most likely stop playing MP when I get the BotB banner (maybe not completely stop, but certainly greatly reduce the time I spend on it). There's a number of excellent games out there, no use grinding without a real incentive.....


I feel the same.

Will grab the BotB banner, go through a renegade trilogy playthrough and then call it a day on Mass Effect 3. I do well enough on Gold where a maxed manifest isn't necessary.

Ironically, in the last 2 million credits I spent, I got two Talons, a Javelin, a Typhoon and a Venom. I don't expect to get another for a while honestly.

#303
Hortonman

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This hurts me...

#304
DullahansXMark

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Nova-SheperdXD wrote...

Yes, just dear god yes. Now that the N7 weapons have been added to the UR pool, it's going to take much longer to max everything out and by that time the servers would be shut down. In a Pyrrhic victory fashion.

/signed


Right, the N7 weapons have bumped the total from 16 to 21. That whole "10% drop rate" thing was fine back when the game launched. Why? Because there were only 8 Ultra-Rares to begin with. That's 800 PSPs, which is something you'd have to work hard at, but given enough time, anyone could have achieved that goal (hell, I have 100 UR unlocks, so I could've had a maxed manifest!). But now we have 21, just 3 URs away from triple the number we had at launch. And the drop rates haven't increased at all.

All the URs added up to (and including) the Collector SMG were fine. Even then there were still only 12 URs to unlock (in theory I'd be close to maxing my manifest). But Reckoning and the end of weekend operations took it too far. It's crazy how much time one would have to put into this game if they didn't have even the slightest bit of luck.

#305
Eelectrica

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DullahansXMark wrote...

N7 Panda wrote...

The problem is, some/many of the non-forumites probably spent at least some if not a lot of IRL money in a last ditch attempt to actually get some UR weapons.


That too. I forgot that was even an option.

By the way, if UR drop rates really are 10%, then the average UR upgrade would cost you about $30 USD.

Anyway, I know support for this game is over, but BioWare really needs to do something about this, and quick. The playerbase is going to go on a rapid decline if it hasn't already.

Just like the SP team, the MP team screwed up their own 'endgame'.
Release a DLC, abandon weekend ops, flood the game with UR's?  Probably saved their worse decision for last.

#306
DullahansXMark

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Eelectrica wrote...

DullahansXMark wrote...

N7 Panda wrote...

The problem is, some/many of the non-forumites probably spent at least some if not a lot of IRL money in a last ditch attempt to actually get some UR weapons.


That too. I forgot that was even an option.

By the way, if UR drop rates really are 10%, then the average UR upgrade would cost you about $30 USD.

Anyway, I know support for this game is over, but BioWare really needs to do something about this, and quick. The playerbase is going to go on a rapid decline if it hasn't already.

Just like the SP team, the MP team screwed up their own 'endgame'.
Release a DLC, abandon weekend ops, flood the game with UR's?  Probably saved their worse decision for last.


And unfortunately, we won't be getting an Extended Cut...

...

or Citadel.

#307
Eugenesys

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DullahansXMark wrote...

Was I right or was I right about the huge number of people flocking to other games over this problem?

Seriously, loads of people leaving just from the BSN alone. Imagine the non-forumites.


BSN is not equal to the majority of the ME3 players.

One thing i've learnt being in a software manufacturer is that you gotta balance those that are in the forums and those that aren't.

Those in the forums, usually claim they represent everyone
eg:
"Everyone in the forums is having a problem"
translated
Your software is so problematic, that everyone you sold it to has some problems".
Using a magnifying glass
"Everyone = those who complained in the forums
Who represent the majority of the vocal enthusiasts
Who
highly likely represents the minority of the players. Minorying being in the very conservative term
Which translates to probably, a very insignificant number...

Its the hard truth and you may choose to disregard it. but the RNG has most probably been debated inhouse by bioware's statisticians and seeing how they enjoy trolling people ( by the ending, use of language, forum behaviour...etc ), i highly doubt that the minority of the playerbase threatening to leave, will make them ( EA ) amend a revenue generating source.

In fact, i would go so far to say, that the majority of those threatening to leave, probably did not spend a significant amount of real life money on the store ( significant definition is unknown. It can be as little as $1 to more  )

Howeverm if the minority becomes significant enough to justify maintaining the status quo ( revenue wise ), that is a different matter...

In this case, money talks, er screams in a megaphone..

@ Dullahan Mark

When you linked to the number of people leaving coz of RNG frustrations, where are the facts to justify your reasoning? Was it plucked from thin air?
Similar harbringers of droom were prophesized when Borderlands 2 was released yet ME3 still prevailed.

if you can tweak your calculations to include this hypothesis, it is a different matter
In a comparably complex MMO, with a RNG store, in which one cannot simply buy the treasures with money ( real life or ingame )but will have to rely one events and RNG gods to obtain them, if the amount of time needed to maximse their manifest ( whatever is the equivalent ) is way lower than ME3MP, then i do agree with your views that the UR drop rates should be dropped.

In layman's terms. If another MMO with those qualities take way less than 800hours to max a manifest, claims for an increased UR drop rate will be justified.

Modifié par Eugenesys, 31 mars 2013 - 07:25 .


#308
DullahansXMark

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Eugenesys wrote...

DullahansXMark wrote...

Was I right or was I right about the huge number of people flocking to other games over this problem?

Seriously, loads of people leaving just from the BSN alone. Imagine the non-forumites.


BSN is not equal to the majority of the ME3 players.

One thing i've learnt being in a software manufacturer is that you gotta balance those that are in the forums and those that aren't.

Those in the forums, usually claim they represent everyone
eg:
"Everyone in the forums is having a problem"
translated
Your software is so problematic, that everyone you sold it to has some problems".
Using a magnifying glass
"Everyone = those who complained in the forums
Who represent the majority of the vocal enthusiasts
Who
highly likely represents the minority of the players. Minorying being in the very conservative term
Which translates to probably, a very insignificant number...

Its the hard truth and you may choose to disregard it. but the RNG has most probably been debated inhouse by bioware's statisticians and seeing how they enjoy trolling people ( by the ending, use of language, forum behaviour...etc ), i highly doubt that the minority of the playerbase threatening to leave, will make them ( EA ) amend a revenue generating source.
Howeverm if the minority becomes significant enough to justify maintaining the status quo ( revenue wise ), that is a different matter...

In this case, money talks, er screams in a megaphone..


I meant what I said as in: "there are loads of people from the BSN leaving, and the BSN doesn't even make up 1% of the playerbase. I wonder what the numbers are looking like in the other 99%." Yeah, 1 forumite leaving =/= 99 non-forumites leaving (for the record, someone posted up that X360 still has over 30,000 players, and other platforms have considerably less, hence my numbers), but the numbers have to be looking at a rapid decline. Nevertheless, I could be wrong, but there's no way it's looking very good.

And since making that statement I realized that there are a HUGE load of BSNers that have left the game, that didn't make a thread about it.

Bottom line is: I don't THINK the game's population is looking very good. It's fine right now, and it's possible it'll always be moderately fine, but I've seen quite a few people leave, and that's just from less than 1% of the playerbase, which leads me to believe that the other 99% might be suffering similarly, though not necesarily proportionally.

I'm rather tired, so I'm sure my point's rather vague, but I hope you understand what I just said, because I don't. lol

@ Dullahan Mark
if you can tweak your calculations to include this hypothesis, it is a different matter
In
a comparable MMO, with a RNG store, in which one cannot simply buy the
treasures with money ( real life or ingame )but will have to rely one
events and RNG gods to obtain them, if the amount of time needed to
maximse their manifest ( whatever is the equivalent ) is way lower than
ME3MP, then i do agree with your views that the UR drop rates should be
dropped.

In layman's terms. If another MMO with those qualities
take way less than 800hours to max a manifest, claims for an increased
UR drop rate will be justified.


Well, that's kinda BS in and of itself. No game should take longer than 800 hours just to get a bunch of items. If it had 800 hours full of fun, exciting quests that would be one thing, but item-grinding? It gets old fast, and ME3 MP shouldn't be trying to be those guys. MMO games spawn poop-sockers (people who literally take dumps in their own socks because taking a few minutes to go to the bathroom could ruin their MMO experience forever), because they feed on human nature (the need to acquire everything) and exploit it by making it take such ridiculous amounts of time, that the only way to do it is by sacrificing other parts of your life. I'm not saying it should be easily attainable, but even 500 hours is rather pushing it, and that still only got me half of the UR items.

Modifié par DullahansXMark, 31 mars 2013 - 07:16 .


#309
DullahansXMark

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In the beginning, we had 8 UR unlocks, which amounted to 800 PSPs required (or would have, had they always been around), which would result in 79,200,000 credits being required. This would have required about 528 Platinum games, and at 25 minutes a Platinum game, that's 13200 minutes, or 220 hours of solid Platinum play. Doesn't seem like much, but remember that that's nothing but Platinum play right there.

If we were to make it so that a manifest could be maxed in a similar amount of time, it would require PSPs having a UR drop rate of 25% per pack, as opposed to the commonly-accepted 10%. This would mean 83,160,000 credits are required to unlock all URs, which would mean 555 Platinum games, which would mean 13875 minutes of Platinum play, which would mean 231 hours and 15 minutes of solid Platinum play.

That's probably a bit much, however. If you agree, let's move to something a little less generous.

When Retaliation hit, we had 12 UR unlocks, which amounted to 1200 PSPs required, which would result in 118,800,000 credits required. This would mean 792 Platinum games were required, which meant about 19800 minutes of solid Platinum play, or 330 hours of nothing but Platinum. No loading screens, nothing. That's quite a bit to obtain, but easily done given enough time and effort.

If we were to make it so that a manifest could be maxed in a similar amount of time, it would require PSPs having a UR drop rate of 15% per pack. This would mean 924 Platinum games are required, which would mean about 23100 minutes, or 385 hours, of solid Platinum play.

Do either of these seem reasonable?

Modifié par DullahansXMark, 31 mars 2013 - 07:46 .


#310
78stonewobble

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Eugenesys wrote...
BSN is not equal to the majority of the ME3 players.

One thing i've learnt being in a software manufacturer is that you gotta balance those that are in the forums and those that aren't.

Those in the forums, usually claim they represent everyone
eg:
"Everyone in the forums is having a problem"
translated
Your software is so problematic, that everyone you sold it to has some problems".
Using a magnifying glass
"Everyone = those who complained in the forums
Who represent the majority of the vocal enthusiasts
Who
highly likely represents the minority of the players. Minorying being in the very conservative term
Which translates to probably, a very insignificant number...

Its the hard truth and you may choose to disregard it. but the RNG has most probably been debated inhouse by bioware's statisticians and seeing how they enjoy trolling people ( by the ending, use of language, forum behaviour...etc ), i highly doubt that the minority of the playerbase threatening to leave, will make them ( EA ) amend a revenue generating source.

In fact, i would go so far to say, that the majority of those threatening to leave, probably did not spend a significant amount of real life money on the store ( significant definition is unknown. It can be as little as $1 to more  )

Howeverm if the minority becomes significant enough to justify maintaining the status quo ( revenue wise ), that is a different matter...

In this case, money talks, er screams in a megaphone..


The "hard truth" is equally baseless and based on guess work and numbers pulled from air/ass.

You don't know what the majority of all who bought me3 thinks of the mp in general and specifically with the RNG store.

Biowares/EA's statisticians might have an idea of the raw numbers (much better than we do) but without a statistically significant poll, that actually asks the right (not as in leading) questions, is needed to actually know what people think.

As it is... People leaving could be for a multitude of reasons.

#311
Witchfinder

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Nobody has a right to rank X weapons. Just play and enjoy.

#312
TrveOmegaSlayer

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Time played: 628H 49M 31S
Games played: 1582

An average of 3 Platinums a day since Platinum was released
71 URs to go.

#313
Aakko

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I am glad I maxed most of the URs before Reckoning came out and promotial weapons went UR.

Still no Lancer but I wouldn't give up my Harrier X for it.

#314
Sulaco_7

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Seems to me like they did increase the drop rate ever since they changed the promotionals to URs. Just maxed my manifest and it went so much faster now than before the change.

#315
Eugenesys

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Witchfinder wrote...

Nobody has a right to rank X weapons. Just play and enjoy.


Agreed

Rank X weapons are a privilege, not an entitlement. :)

#316
Alijah Green

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my new manifest says otherwise I have been getting UR faster than any of my comrades on XBOX math....every single time I buy a pack AP or RP I get something good.....not a single PSP purchased all under 300 hr..

#317
Pyrrhus19

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Image IPB

#318
DullahansXMark

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Witchfinder wrote...

Nobody has a right to rank X weapons. Just play and enjoy.


I'm not asking for Rank X weapons. I'm asking for Rank I weapons.

#319
Mat Blad

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Another week down, not a single Ultra Rare in the Premium Spectre Packs I've had, and I've had quite a few every day. Seem significantly rarer than usual...

#320
landylan

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Eugenesys wrote...

Witchfinder wrote...

Nobody has a right to rank X weapons. Just play and enjoy.


Agreed

Rank X weapons are a privilege, not an entitlement. :)

So people who get luckier than me are suddenly privileged and more deserving?

I finally got one of the new UR guns last night, and it was the spitfire. I'm disgusted.

#321
Stinja

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I still need 37 URs, but had maxed before Reckoning: I don't think I have the will to do so anymore...

As for people leaving, on my friends list of ME3 players:
- 49 people
- 9 people with zero (0) N7 rank, so never played MP
- 16 people with zero (0) Challenge Points, so 7 people that tried MP, but gave up A while ago
- 19 people that have played in the last three weeks, not all I call regular though
- 21 no longer playing who did

So let's call it 50% drop off, but yes since last challenge, much fewer people are playing regularly.
UR drop rate, and all the new URs just speeding that along.

#322
Kirrahe Airlines CEO

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I'm at 1117 hours, nearly 3100 games and I still need 67 URs. My store luck is pretty crappy to begin with. So I'm saving up about maybe two to three million so I can hopefully get a substantial amount of URs. I'm mainly hoping to get the ones that are nearly maxed out, maxed so I don't have to worry about them anymore. I still don't have the venom. :(

#323
pawatt6

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I want to keep playing because I do enjoy playing but having spent over three million in the last three weeks and getting a saber IV and my last five rare mods I don't feel I have achieved anything or that i am enjoying the game, instead I feel I have wasted my time because, litho ugh there exists a tangible reward, I have not been given it.

And for those hat go, it is ULTRA rare dude, my response is that Rare is guaranteed, twice in a given pack some people have gone 100 packs without 1, that is actively removing in from the game nod I play video games for fun.

Next game, make it 30 rare cards max to guarantee an UR, then reset the probabilities.

#324
Siran

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DullahansXMark wrote...

<Added> Some math that those of you with all of the Promos you could have gotten before the end of operations might be interested in. Basically, 470.5 hours of Platinum play, or 188.16 hours of speedrunning for a maxed manifest, assuming you got all 39 legitimately obtainable promo weapons before the operations ended.


It was 37 N7 promo weapons you could get legitimately, not counting the free-bees you could get through the gift pack glitch without punishment (I think the threshold was 4). Rest sounds about right.

#325
Cirvante

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Last 3.5 million nothing. I'm playing only platinum pugs to maximize my credit gains and yet I'm still playing for nothing. Definitely the most unrewarding gaming experience I've ever had.