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Some brutal math regarding Ultra-Rare drop rates -- BioWare, please take a look at this <Updated Mar.31 with MORE math!>


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#326
chcknwng

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Not valid. If you have taken any stat class yo I should have known providing one number alone is useless. Need an interval with corresponding probability, otherwise known as confidence interval.

#327
GoldZero1

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Maxed out my manifest after 670 hours of playtime. How did I get to this point?

-I've been a platinum regular for months. Gold felt too easy, and pointless since I wasn't even able to buy a single PSP after a succesful gold match.

-I usually don't play with PUGs. Platinum games with other good players with mics usually last for about 20 minutes. Glacier games 15 minutes. Speedruns less than 10 minutes. Good luck trying to do that with PUGs.

-Haven't promoted that often and don't really care about promoting. If I wanna try out a different build I use a reset card. This way I haven't needed to spend any time playing on lower difficulties or spending all my money on recruit packs.

Some might think that I've been just farming, but the reality is that with other good players you can turn platinum pretty much into bronze and have fun at the same time.

social.bioware.com/n7hq/home/overview/

Modifié par GoldZero1, 31 mars 2013 - 09:46 .


#328
Guest_Paynez_*

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The reason biower did this is since they have finished supporting the game, they wanted to give people something to spend their time on and keep playing the game. This makes it extremely hard for a new player to get URs at decent levels (3+)

#329
Guest_Paynez_*

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IIRC the drop rate for URs in reserve packs is ~20% how would that affect things?

#330
yamada1979

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DullahansXMark, thanks for continuing to update this thread with more brutal math. I wish the developers would read this and respond. I would be amazed if they honestly think flooding the game with URs will make us more likely to play longer. Every time I save 1 million credits and go to the store to buy 10 PSPs (or reserves packs), only to receive zero or one UR upgrade, I dislike the game more and more and feel more like I want to quit. Last week I spent 3 million credits and got one UR upgrade (with more level IV ammo than I can use). Really frustrating.

#331
DullahansXMark

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yamada1979 wrote...

DullahansXMark, thanks for continuing to update this thread with more brutal math. I wish the developers would read this and respond. I would be amazed if they honestly think flooding the game with URs will make us more likely to play longer. Every time I save 1 million credits and go to the store to buy 10 PSPs (or reserves packs), only to receive zero or one UR upgrade, I dislike the game more and more and feel more like I want to quit. Last week I spent 3 million credits and got one UR upgrade (with more level IV ammo than I can use). Really frustrating.


I'm honestly a little confused as to why I never once heard anything in regards to this. I mean, I remember reading that BioWare is neither allowed to discuss drop rates, nor discuss why they can't discuss drop rates, but still,it'd be nice if they just looked at this and said "Hey! You're distressed. We acknowledge you're distressed." That's it. I'll at least have known that they saw this.

I mean, I'm not mad or anything, as I actually do enjoy playing the game for what it is, but still. We need a response. Anything would do. I just want to know that this is acknowledged.

#332
me0120

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wngmv wrote...

Not valid. If you have taken any stat class yo I should have known providing one number alone is useless. Need an interval with corresponding probability, otherwise known as confidence interval.


I thought this thread was to prove a point, not show off math skills.

He would need to do an anonymous survey and then it would not represent an entire population, but instead the population of willing participants at BSN. The math is easy but gathering resources sometimes isn't. 

#333
Eelectrica

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Earlier I spent 2 million in sp's/reserve packs/arsenel packs/psp's and nothing.
I think it's roughly 2.5 million drought so far.
Will save up another million or so, compete the next promotion cycle, and see what happens.

My ship left port and hit a goddamn iceberg.

#334
yamada1979

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DullahansXMark wrote...

yamada1979 wrote...

DullahansXMark, thanks for continuing to update this thread with more brutal math. I wish the developers would read this and respond. I would be amazed if they honestly think flooding the game with URs will make us more likely to play longer. Every time I save 1 million credits and go to the store to buy 10 PSPs (or reserves packs), only to receive zero or one UR upgrade, I dislike the game more and more and feel more like I want to quit. Last week I spent 3 million credits and got one UR upgrade (with more level IV ammo than I can use). Really frustrating.


I'm honestly a little confused as to why I never once heard anything in regards to this. I mean, I remember reading that BioWare is neither allowed to discuss drop rates, nor discuss why they can't discuss drop rates, but still,it'd be nice if they just looked at this and said "Hey! You're distressed. We acknowledge you're distressed." That's it. I'll at least have known that they saw this.

I mean, I'm not mad or anything, as I actually do enjoy playing the game for what it is, but still. We need a response. Anything would do. I just want to know that this is acknowledged.


The closest thing I saw was one of the developers responded to a guy who complained on BSN that there should be a UR pack. I think the guy said it should be 500,000 credits, which is too much, so the developer said you would be better off spending those credits to max your uncommons and rares first (the guy was fairly new). But that doesn't do anything to comfort those of us who've maxed our manifests everywhere except UR weapons. 

#335
I am Sovereign

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Mak an UR pak Biower, pls

#336
randomfoo

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Just noticed this thread. FYI, our collaborative spreadsheet has tracked over 300M credits (3200+ packs). The UR Weapon Drop Rate for PSPs is currently 15.68% w/ a +/-1.32% confidence interval.

IMO, the problems w/ the store isn't so much the drop rates, but the lack of a progressive drop rate. My personal drop rate is 18.7% - pretty good, but I just spent 3.6M between an UR drop, which did a great job renewing my hatred for the store.

IMO, by the time you get to 1-2M between URs you should be getting a guaranteed drop (among other tweaks - like prioritizing lvl 1 guns). Maybe next game.

#337
Robert517

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So what you're saying is that by the time I max all my weapons to X, EA will probably have already forced Bioware to shut down ME3 servers?

#338
DullahansXMark

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Robert517 wrote...

So what you're saying is that by the
time I max all my weapons to X, EA will probably have already forced
Bioware to shut down ME3 servers?


Unless you have 577.5 hours of free time and some mad Platinum skills, then yes.

randomfoo wrote...

Just noticed this thread. FYI, our collaborative spreadsheet has tracked over 300M credits (3200+ packs). The UR Weapon Drop Rate for PSPs is currently 15.68% w/ a +/-1.32% confidence interval.

IMO, the problems w/ the store isn't so much the drop rates, but the lack of a progressive drop rate. My personal drop rate is 18.7% - pretty good, but I just spent 3.6M between an UR drop, which did a great job renewing my hatred for the store.

IMO, by the time you get to 1-2M between URs you should be getting a guaranteed drop (among other tweaks - like prioritizing lvl 1 guns). Maybe next game.


I actually brought that very idea up once. It should not be possible to be Neferius with 12.6 million credit dry streaks. That's insane. Assuming all of those credits were earned with Platinum games only, that's still 84 matches without a single UR drop--and I'm sure that quite a few of the credits put into that 12.6 milion were Gold matches, not Platinum.

I honestly can't believe people can justify this. It's ridiculous.

#339
Guest_Paynez_*

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As a speedrunner who started again on PC I'm aiming for a maxed manifest in <650 hours with reckoning too. But you do have to realise that if you are a speedrunner you have to buy JEPs too because you use up a rediculous amount of missiles over a short period of time.

#340
Dimlor

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What's with this necroing trend lately?

#341
Guest_Paynez_*

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Dimlor wrote...

What's with this necroing trend lately?

I doubt 28 days is a necro bud.

I'd say the MINIMUM is about 2 months for a necro but preferably longer