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Some brutal math regarding Ultra-Rare drop rates -- BioWare, please take a look at this <Updated Mar.31 with MORE math!>


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#26
Emphrygian

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I'm not saying the drop rates couldn't use a little tweaking, but there are people who've collectively pooled their drops to get a better idea of the actual drop rate. You can see the results here and as is very clear, the drop seems to be around 17.85%, with a confidence interval of just a little more than 1%. This is quite a bit more than 10%, although you still need to play a whole lot to max all URs.

#27
Apl_Juice

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As long as we give the drop rate a flat buff, and NOT a UR pack.

PUGs already never use equipment, give them a 500k pack to shoot for and equipment will go extinct.

#28
digetey dank

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nothing new in this thread or the 50 like it last month or the 50 like it the month before that,etc.,etc.

#29
GodLovesATrier

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The dude who does the badges, guyblade, calculated the average ur/h as 0.13. If there are now 210 ur' s then this means that real people, not playing plat speed runs will take approx 1500 hours to max all weapons. What do you think of those numbers!?

#30
Mesonak

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Blah. Pretty bad.

I concur with higher drop rate being necessary at this point. The game's being phased out anyway, so why not?

#31
pawatt6

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Then start building in the time to get to that stage, lobby time, loading screens, the building a manifest to take to platinum. What is that for the AVERAGE player?

#32
Meeeps

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The math seems about right, might be too positive, I have 600h and around half of the ultra-rars

#33
MajorStupidity

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They really do need to increase the drop rate on UR's

#34
DullahansXMark

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NeferiusXji wrote...

Annnnd that's why 12 months later I still have a half empty UR manifest... *Le sigh*


That and notoriously terrible luck.

I'm feeling your pain right now, trust me.

#35
ZiRK

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You thought Gold/Pat pugs were ****ty now? You aint seen nothing yet.

#36
CobraJet97

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If support is being cut off I don't see why ultra rares need to stay this rare. I agree that they shouldn't drop in every psp but it's discouraging to never get to play them at decent levels. We are a year in. Let the people play! Or shoot, as it were.

#37
Wendig

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I know people say increasing the UR drop rate would cause players to stop playing. But spending 2.5 million credits and getting nothing make's me want to quit just the same.

#38
Vlark

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Yeah its absolutly ridiculous. Thats the first balance change that REALLY made me angry. Especially if you look at the game that its almost finished. We dont want it for free, but we want it to be POSSIBLE to have it.

#39
DullahansXMark

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Emphrygian wrote...

I'm not saying the drop rates couldn't use a little tweaking, but there are people who've collectively pooled their drops to get a better idea of the actual drop rate. You can see the results here and as is very clear, the drop seems to be around 17.85%, with a confidence interval of just a little more than 1%. This is quite a bit more than 10%, although you still need to play a whole lot to max all URs.

Those numbers are only for a handful of people, though. Take a look at Neferius' signature. His UR drop rates are so low I can't even believe he's telling the truth.

#40
PreGy

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Math!?

Witch! Witch! Burn it!

#41
BjornDaDwarf

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Even if you could average 12.5 minute speedruns consistently (sure, could be faster, but there's a hard limit to how fast you can go, and a bad objective wave can kill a good time), that's still 288.75 hours of nothing but Plat Speedruns to go from 0 to 210.

#42
Vlark

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This whole thing drives me crazy. And the worst part is that they are ABSOLUTLY SILENT on this. Please Fagnan or Bryan...respond and give us you insight, your thoughts and tell us IF or IF NOT. Please!

#43
RedJohn

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LOL the rates are not like that.

The "1 UR per million " average is a myth.

#44
Nitrocuban

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UR droprates will be low as long as people spend real money.

#45
MichaelFinnegan

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DullahansXMark wrote...

Okay, so we now have 21 Ultra-Rare weapons in the pool. To get a weapon maxed you have to unlock it ten times, so that's a total of 210 Ultra-Rares to unlock. The general consensus is that Ultra-Rare drop rates in PSPs (the other two 99K packs are only marginally higher) is about 10% (some say more, some say less). One in ten PSPs would round that out to about 2100 PSPs, give or take.

That may not seem like a whole lot on paper. But let me add something: to buy all of those packs one would have to spend 207,900,000 credits (again, give or take). Let's put this another way: to go from 0 Ultra-Rare unlocks to 210, someone would have to play 1386 Platinum matches with extraction. If a normal Platinum match takes about 25 minutes to complete, that's 34650 minutes of playtime, or 577 hours and 30 minutes of solid Platinum play. (You could pull the "speedrun" card, but not everyone knows how to do those.)

All I'm saying, is that the current drop rates are far too demanding. Please consider increasing the drop rate in the future.

Yes, without even those numbers, it's evident that a lot of hours would have to be put in to the ME3 MP. But why assume that there is a deadline for this? What you say makes sense to me if we get an acknowledgment regarding the end date about when the servers will be shut down. Otherwise, it's reasonable to assume that BW wants to keep the MP experience going for a long time to come. You're also assuming that everyone's end goal is to max his/her manifest, and also that BioWare has to ensure that that has to happen...

#46
digetey dank

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DullahansXMark wrote...

 (You could pull the "speedrun" card, but not everyone knows how to do those.)
 

aren't there like 100 videos of exactly how to do these with step by step intructions

#47
Blarg

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*Cries*

#48
Beeno4Life

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RedJohn wrote...

LOL the rates are not like that.

The "1 UR per million " average is a myth.

Anything to back that up? No? Okay, disregarded.

#49
Lucky

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Eh having a max manifest is overrated anyway, part of the fun is having things to unlock. I don't personally mind as for me it will keep that part of the excitement in the game for longer.

#50
Dany164

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WestLakeDragon wrote...

I'll never get a Lancer :(