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Some brutal math regarding Ultra-Rare drop rates -- BioWare, please take a look at this <Updated Mar.31 with MORE math!>


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#51
Commander Coriander Salamander

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funkathon wrote...

nothing new in this thread or the 50 like it last month or the 50 like it the month before that,etc.,etc.

Nothing other than increasing the total number of URs in the pool, thus drastically increasing the time required to unlock them.

#52
Barge6000

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adjustment needed. The grind is over.

#53
Jeremiah12LGeek

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I pretty much accepted a couple of weeks ago that I would never have a maxed manifest.

The funny part, is that if it hadn't been for the original (brief) drop rate on uncommon gear, I would actually have more Ultra Rare Weapons and Kits than Uncommon Gears unlocked.

As it stands, I have been receiving Ultra Rares at a pace of about 4 to 1 over uncommon gear since the drop rate changed.

Any way you slice it, the drop rates are probably going to need tweaking to keep up with the changes in weapons and equipment.

#54
jordie3000

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Wendig wrote...

I know people say increasing the UR drop rate would cause players to stop playing. But spending 2.5 million credits and getting nothing make's me want to quit just the same.



#55
blaster1 112

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Currently played; 352H 46M 12S and got 85/120 UR weapons and i lost the fin in this game because there was to much repetition. Also only got 1 lvl 10 UR being the Talon, which i personally don't like that much. Also still haven't unlocked the spitfire yet.

#56
AktyNuria

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DullahansXMark wrote...

Let's put this another way: to go from 0 Ultra-Rare unlocks to 210, someone would have to play 1386 Platinum matches with extraction. If a normal Platinum match takes about 25 minutes to complete, that's 34650 minutes of playtime, or 577 hours and 30 minutes of solid Platinum play.


Now I have even bigger headache:crying:

#57
Vlark

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I AM MAD :D extremly. First time. Thats so ridiculous that they added them into the pool.

#58
Yuanrang

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...and this is why I will never max out my Ultra Rares.

I love this game to death and I have played it for quite a few hundred hours, but the sheer level of commitment needed to get the rest (especially after they went ahead and add a whooping 9 more weapons to the UR pool...!) of the guns is just way too severe. The concept of Ultra Rares are great as it was for a while after launch. Having 10ish guns to reach for was... well it was a lot, but it was obtainable and every pack just felt like you got one step closer. Nowadays though, with 210 cards needing to be filled out and more Ultra Rares than Common and Uncommon weapons combined..? They do not feel rare. Sure, the rarity is Ultra Rare, but how the hell can it be that 33% of the guns created in the Mass Effect universe are some hyper-rare weapons reserved for the rich, the special force commandos and obscure trophies of past battles and wars? A third of the guns can not be hyper rare. <_<

#59
holdenagincourt

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DullahansXMark wrote...

Emphrygian wrote...

I'm not saying the drop rates couldn't use a little tweaking, but there are people who've collectively pooled their drops to get a better idea of the actual drop rate. You can see the results here and as is very clear, the drop seems to be around 17.85%, with a confidence interval of just a little more than 1%. This is quite a bit more than 10%, although you still need to play a whole lot to max all URs.

Those numbers are only for a handful of people, though. Take a look at Neferius' signature. His UR drop rates are so low I can't even believe he's telling the truth.


Also that inferring UR drop rates from self-reported data is a pretty fundamental violation of CLT.

I'm willing to accept that 17.85% could be a theoretical ceiling in drop rate, but I highly doubt that that's the mean drop with a 1% error term.

In any case, on-topic, yes the store is horrible. Pretty much the main reason I don't enjoy the game all that much anymore. Playing 5-7 hours of Gold and some Plat each day and getting nothing but level IV ammo the vast majority of the time makes you begin to question your sanity.

My 800 hours of play time is split about evenly between XBox and PC too, so the unlock rate seems even more terrible. If I had been on one platform from the beginning I would probably be mostly done by now. Instead, well, you've done the math.

And the fact that you'd need full consumables for Platinum matches would really up the total hours in your calculation.

Modifié par holdenagincourt, 12 mars 2013 - 09:34 .


#60
CobraJet97

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Of course BioWare not commenting on the future of weekend operations does seem strange. I don't see why they didn't make a thread just saying so, or respond to any of the threads asking. Could be there's more to this.

#61
Diogo Marzo

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Brutal. Signed. Bioware, please acknowledge the OPs post.

#62
lightningchaser

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Well, this is astounding. And I don't even play Plat, so --

Change the drop rate.

#63
Shad Croly

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WestLakeDragon wrote...

I'll never get a Lancer :(


Looking at those numbers, and considering how much time I have to devote to my schooling and my job, this makes me a very sad panda...

#64
BlackDahlia424

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RedJohn wrote...

LOL the rates are not like that.

The "1 UR per million " average is a myth.


A myth huh? And I'm sure you have statisical data to back up that claim? I've gotten 2 URs in the last 3M credits. That type of BS should not happen. Period.

Modifié par BlackDahlia424, 12 mars 2013 - 09:51 .


#65
Emphrygian

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DullahansXMark wrote...

Emphrygian wrote...

I'm not saying the drop rates couldn't use a little tweaking, but there are people who've collectively pooled their drops to get a better idea of the actual drop rate. You can see the results here and as is very clear, the drop seems to be around 17.85%, with a confidence interval of just a little more than 1%. This is quite a bit more than 10%, although you still need to play a whole lot to max all URs.

Those numbers are only for a handful of people, though. Take a look at Neferius' signature. His UR drop rates are so low I can't even believe he's telling the truth.


But that relates only to one person, so it's even less conclusive. Either way, the amount of bought packs is what's interesting, not who bought it.

Even if the UR drop rate for PSPs is 10%, the chance of someone going on a 12.5 million no UR streak while buying only PSPs is 0.00019%, or one in 524 429. So while certainly possible, I'm a little bit skeptical.

#66
Shinnyshin

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Those are some harsh #s. I feel like people tend to pull the "it's a co-op game" card at inappropriate times, but this is an appropriate one. You shouldn't have to hardcore grind on the highest difficulty--and the least fun one--for almost a month straight with no breaks and no sleep in order to have a good chance at getting all the gear. More than a month of Golds. This is a co-op repetitive alternate game mode of a single-player game. That # is totally out of line.

Kind of reminds me why I quit playing Borderlands 2. At some point, I realized that I'd spent the last 6 hours killing the same boss (who I was able to kill in under 15 seconds) and reloading the zone in order to have a shot at ultrarare drops. It requires a level of investment and commitment that's completely disproportionate to the material.

Emphrygian wrote...

But that relates only to one person, so it's even less conclusive. Either way, the amount of bought packs is what's interesting, not who bought it.

Even if the UR drop rate for PSPs is 10%, the chance of someone going on a 12.5 million no UR streak while buying only PSPs is 0.00019%, or one in 524 429. So while certainly possible, I'm a little bit skeptical.


That's the problem with RNG systems.  If a million people play this game, then on average that'll happen to two people every 12.5 mil spending spree.  If you're one of the people with exceptionally poor luck, then the game is a total nightmare.

Modifié par Shinnyshin, 12 mars 2013 - 09:48 .


#67
burr beer

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rlucht wrote...

Eh having a max manifest is overrated anyway, part of the fun is having things to unlock. I don't personally mind as for me it will keep that part of the excitement in the game for longer.

There's more to it than just wanting to have a maxed manifest.  Think about the people who don't even have many of the guns at level I and probably won't unlock them at this point without a significant amount of grinding. The gameplay is just too repetitive to sustain player interest in doing so, especially now that content drops are over.

As someone who has golds maxed for months now but is still not even halfway through URs, the draw to max stuff at current drop rates isn't enough for me, I've had a lot of fun with the game but this killed my already dropping interest and I'll play something else until the rates go up or a dedicated UR pack appears.

Modifié par burr beer, 12 mars 2013 - 09:49 .


#68
xSNPx ZoDiaC

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If people gather together like they did with the stupid AIU complaining... this might actually work.


And I thought I was done with propaganda... Oh boy this is frightening news indeed. That math has very disturbing implications. WTF is BioWare thinking?


It's time to get VOCAL people! Let the "increase UR drop-rate" threads begin!

#69
xxHarbinger

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donasdogamma wrote...

Original Stikman wrote...

damn



#70
Sir_Alan_

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Holy. Sh*t.

#71
WaterWar

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The drop rate is supposed to be as it is.. otherwise it wouldn't be ULTRA-RARE unlocks :)

#72
ElectronicPostingInterface

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 Yeah, I would like to be able to accomplish this before the servers shut down.

#73
Dreadmed.2

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They'll probably increase the drop rate... about 2-3 weeks before they shut off the server. Probably.

#74
Shinnyshin

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WaterWar wrote...

The drop rate is supposed to be as it is.. otherwise it wouldn't be ULTRA-RARE unlocks :)


People keep saying that like it means something.  Even if there were a new tier called "super duper amazingly godlike ultrarare", it shouldn't take World of Warcraft amounts of time spent in a game like this to maybe access it.

#75
animeboy12

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WaterWar wrote...

The drop rate is supposed to be as it is.. otherwise it wouldn't be ULTRA-RARE unlocks :)


No, these rates are way beyond ultra.