Aller au contenu

Photo

Some brutal math regarding Ultra-Rare drop rates -- BioWare, please take a look at this <Updated Mar.31 with MORE math!>


  • Veuillez vous connecter pour répondre
340 réponses à ce sujet

#201
CobraJet97

CobraJet97
  • Members
  • 349 messages
What would be a better system entirely would be if every gun/equipment was uncommon from I-V, rare from VI-VIII, Ultra Rare from IV-X. At least then every player would get to TRY most of the guns. Which is what this is about. Getting to actually PLAY the content. Right?

#202
Tallgeese_VII

Tallgeese_VII
  • Members
  • 6 027 messages

CobraJet97 wrote...

What would be a better system entirely would be if every gun/equipment was uncommon from I-V, rare from VI-VIII, Ultra Rare from IV-X. At least then every player would get to TRY most of the guns. Which is what this is about. Getting to actually PLAY the content. Right?


To make RNG better

1. Give the weapon / character that player does not have first.
2. Give the weapon of lower level first
3. Guarantee 1 UR after spending certain amount of credits.


3 simple thing. Which didn`t exist with our RNG unfortunately...

I have to say.. the lotto system was kinda enjoyable on its own, but eventually frustration takes over.
Valkyrie vs Lancer? I wouldn`t feed my dog with Valkyrie.

#203
Pyroninja42

Pyroninja42
  • Members
  • 3 834 messages
BUT GUYS MY PETITION IS STUPID

#204
GuyBlade

GuyBlade
  • Members
  • 235 messages

GuyBlade wrote...

DullahansXMark wrote...

Oh, real quick, someone please check my math. I don't want to find out it's more like 57 hours of Platinum play or something. lol


The collaborative spreadsheet seems to think the UR drop rate for weapons is closer to 16%

https://docs.google....MHc&usp=sharing

That's got about 3000 PSP purchases from a variety of people.


Using the updated number on the spreadsheet, I reran the scenario in the original post.

Expected PSPs to max your manifest (from zero): 1327
Number of credits necessary to get there: 131,373,000
Number of platinum games with full extraction (assuming 150 kilocredits per game):  875.82 
Assuming 25 minute platinum runs, the amount of time would be: 21,900 minutes 
In more useful units, that is: 15 days, 5 hours of solid play time

These numbers still aren't small, but I believe that one should use the best numbers available when making arguments.

Modifié par GuyBlade, 13 mars 2013 - 01:28 .


#205
Melzfaze1

Melzfaze1
  • Members
  • 17 messages
Not increasing the drop rate will cost them more money. Why would you want to spend 5 bucks for 2 PSP s and get nothing for it. If you actually would get ur drop it would justify me to spend money. I have not spent any money on the storebecause it would be a mplete waste . I am I newer player 150 hours in and I will be leaving the game because of the store. Its absolutely not feasible to even get all of the guns at lvl 1 with the way the store is set up.

#206
azoth1267

azoth1267
  • Members
  • 198 messages
the day of the dlc drop (reckoning) spent 7 million credits... i got 4 URs
im not asking for much, but thats rather annoying :(
though still not as bad as my 12kk spree with nothing to show for it lol

#207
Jokoso

Jokoso
  • Members
  • 60 messages
brutal...

#208
Chi_Mangetsu

Chi_Mangetsu
  • Members
  • 1 828 messages
I still love playing but this is just disheartening. Dunno how much I will invest into it if an UR pack isn't made available.

#209
DullahansXMark

DullahansXMark
  • Members
  • 9 557 messages

azoth1267 wrote...

the day of the dlc drop (reckoning) spent 7 million credits... i got 4 URs
im not asking for much, but thats rather annoying :(
though still not as bad as my 12kk spree with nothing to show for it lol


12 million credits and no URs? That's ridiculous.

At Reckoning's launch I spent 4.4 million credits and got 9 URs (12 counting three Collector cards). Just goes to show you: random is random.

Chi_Mangetsu wrote...

I still love playing but this is just disheartening. Dunno how much I will invest into it if an UR pack isn't made available.


I'm still gonna keep playing, too. To be perfectly honest I actually enjoy the game for its gameplay more than I do getting stuff. But I feel like my play options are vastly limited if I can't play with every toy in the pool.

When you first start the game it's fine. You have some basic humans with basic abilities, and as you start to play a little Silver you unlock some aliens to play with. Use those aliens to unlock more aliens and more weapons, and those to unlock even more aliens and weapons... and then you max all of your Rares and you just can't advance anymore. Without pure luck that's as far as you're gonna get.

#210
Jonathan Shepard

Jonathan Shepard
  • Members
  • 2 056 messages

jfruelas521 wrote...

The problem is that if you increase drop rates, you marginalize the players that achieved the max manifest with the lower rates. And the last thing you want to do is alienate the hardcore player base.


This is not a TCG or a CCG. The "value" of your weapons exists only in the time you are willing to spend grinding for them-- this does not marginalize anyone's collection value, only how they feel about their own time spent-- an increase in drop rate is primarily for those who do not already have maxed manifests. With the servers probably only having another year, maybe a year and a half at most, it'd be nice for people to be able to experience all this game had to offer for longer than a couple of weeks. Not everyone can put in 600 hours of platinum play. Work, school, social lives, travel, family obligations, etc. 

The hardcore player base-- if they are still playing with a maxed out manifest-- probably wouldn't care what other people have. They're not competing against anyone. They're playing with friends against bots for fun. Those who don't have a maxed manifest would appreciate the helpful push towards completion.

There is literally no reason not to raise the drop rate after the amount of UR's has almost TRIPLED since release other than BioWare/EA still hoping for microtransaction profits. Given that no more DLC is coming, it'd be nice to have the drop rate increased. In fact, it'd probably incentivize people to pay with cash for a couple packs as a "thank you" so to speak. 

#211
Kaelis_33

Kaelis_33
  • Members
  • 178 messages

Procloa wrote...

After today's balance changes I'm quitting ME3.  I'm not complaining but it's too much of a time sink for a year old game.  I've been playing on and off since launch just trying to have fun but eventually the game got a little dull.  I then decided to try to max my manifest to keep the game alive but they just keep adding URs to the pool.  I have no interest in ME3 now.  It's a great game but there really isn't much to it other than mindlessly grinding credits to try and get something with a low drop rate.  The only way this game will interest me again is if they up the odds for URs or add an UR pack.  That way I'll have a reason to play again without being dead bored.  It's even worse for new players having so much to unlock.


Exactly this, I am putting ME 3 aside as well. Not havign any fun, constantly running gold matches with zero medigels and being seriously disadvantaged in that regards. When I get credits and I can afford a pack there is nothing in it. Tried forever to unlock the Jugg character, and it has not happened. I tried spending real $$ and got nothing for my money.

I gave ME 3 every chance I could. In the end its no fun having to unlock so much stuff, thus ensuring everything will be at a low level. Not only that not being able to get off the ground like others are able to was really enough. IANd lets not forget the instant stomps the enemies do when you are down. They will run through a hail of gunfire whils being onfire to stomp you. Just a bad mechanics altogether.

Add to this the scoreboard which makes everyone screw over the team and you really have a recipe for frustration. The gameplay is solid but safe to say I won't pull the trigger on ME 4 unless they address some of the stuff I wrote above. This is not a game for new players, its only for whatever is left of the previous player base. 

#212
E71

E71
  • Members
  • 709 messages
Was short 4 UR from maxing manifest, now 16 UR (thanks a lot balance changes).

Got 1 UR in 3.4m-4m worth of PSPs.

Too afraid to spend any more credits...

#213
snackrat

snackrat
  • Members
  • 2 577 messages
Trying to figure out why people think the drop rate could be 17-18% while gathered stats from all the participating players shows each slot is at 10%.

Whelp, there it is... assuming that each gold card has a 10% chance to be a black card (which gathered stats currently support, rounded), than in a two-gold pack - PSP, AP, and RP, you have:

81% of both being gold (0.9 x 0.9 = 0.81 -> 81%)
1% of both being black (0.1 x 0.1 = 0.01 -> 1%)
18% of one black, one gold (1 - 0.81 - 0.01 = 0.18 -> 18%)

So that explains why stats show 10% and people report 18%, because they're thinking the chance of getting one AT ALL rather than the chance per gold slot.
That makes it looks like the drop rates would actually be alright, but in practice that is shown to not be the case. Not necessarily because the drop rates have been tabulated wrong, but because it can take long enough to earn a pack for it to lose appeal.

What if the chance per gold was around 20%?
64% both gold (0.8 x 0.8 = 0.64 -> 64%)
4% both black (0.2 x 0.2 = 0.04 -> 4%)
32% one of each (1 - 0.64 - 0.04 = 0.32 -> 32%)

That would make about every third pack have at least one black, favouring one black one gold. Still a lot of gear drops, certainly, but not as frustrating.

Get into 30% and
49% both gold (0.7 x 0.7 = 0.49 -> 49%)
9% both black (0.3 x 0.3 = 0.09 -> 9%)
42% one of each (1 - 0.09 - 0.49 -> 0.42 -> 42%)
Now we're looking at around a 50% chance of a PSP containing a black, and in those that DO, 25% of them have TWO blacks. We're probably unlocking a little quickly there for some people, so maybe a 20% per card is best.

EDIT: These are the tabled results I mean: http://social.biowar...ndex/13527160/1

Modifié par Karsciyin, 13 mars 2013 - 03:20 .


#214
DullahansXMark

DullahansXMark
  • Members
  • 9 557 messages

Karsciyin wrote...

Trying to figure out why people think the drop rate could be 17-18% while gathered stats from all the participating players shows each slot is at 10%.

Whelp, there it is... assuming that each gold card has a 10% chance to be a black card (which gathered stats currently support, rounded), than in a two-gold pack - PSP, AP, and RP, you have:

81% of both being gold (0.9 x 0.9 = 0.81 -> 81%)
1% of both being black (0.1 x 0.1 = 0.01 -> 1%)
18% of one black, one gold (1 - 0.81 - 0.01 = 0.18 -> 18%)

So that explains why stats show 10% and people report 18%, because they're thinking the chance of getting one AT ALL rather than the chance per gold slot.
That makes it looks like the drop rates would actually be alright, but in practice that is shown to not be the case. Not necessarily because the drop rates have been tabulated wrong, but because it can take long enough to earn a pack for it to lose appeal.

What if the chance per gold was around 20%?
64% both gold (0.8 x 0.8 = 0.64 -> 64%)
4% both black (0.2 x 0.2 = 0.04 -> 4%)
32% one of each (1 - 0.64 - 0.04 = 0.32 -> 32%)

That would make about every third pack have at least one black, favouring one black one gold. Still a lot of gear drops, certainly, but not as frustrating.

Get into 30% and
49% both gold (0.7 x 0.7 = 0.49 -> 49%)
9% both black (0.3 x 0.3 = 0.09 -> 9%)
42% one of each (1 - 0.09 - 0.49 -> 0.42 -> 42%)
Now we're looking at around a 50% chance of a PSP containing a black, and in those that DO, 25% of them have TWO blacks. We're probably unlocking a little quickly there for some people, so maybe a 20% per card is best.

EDIT: These are the tabled results I mean: http://social.biowar...ndex/13527160/1


Huh... that's actually very enlightening. Thank you for posting this.

#215
JediHarbinger

JediHarbinger
  • Members
  • 2 464 messages
I loathe math.

#216
dabull1014

dabull1014
  • Members
  • 354 messages
Signed. Also, note that this assumes the pool has nothing but URs and the games are nothing but Platinum. As such, probably well over 70% of players will never, ever reach this goal. I've been playing for a year and I'm not even close to this.
As a benchmark number, I would say 25% is far more reasonable. And/or decrease the chances of a blasted ammo card.

DullahansXMark wrote...

Okay, so we now have 21 Ultra-Rare weapons in the pool. To get a weapon maxed you have to unlock it ten times, so that's a total of 210 Ultra-Rares to unlock. The general consensus is that Ultra-Rare drop rates in PSPs (the other two 99K packs are only marginally higher) is about 10% (some say more, some say less). One in ten PSPs would round that out to about 2100 PSPs, give or take.

That may not seem like a whole lot on paper. But let me add something: to buy all of those packs one would have to spend 207,900,000 credits (again, give or take). Let's put this another way: to go from 0 Ultra-Rare unlocks to 210, someone would have to play 1386 Platinum matches with extraction. If a normal Platinum match takes about 25 minutes to complete, that's 34650 minutes of playtime, or 577 hours and 30 minutes of solid Platinum play. (You could pull the "speedrun" card, but not everyone knows how to do those.)

All I'm saying, is that the current drop rates are far too demanding. Please consider increasing the drop rate in the future.



#217
E71

E71
  • Members
  • 709 messages

JediHarbinger wrote...
I loathe math.


I loathe Bioware math.

Oh, so that 30% power recharge speed doesn't really mean 30%. That makes sense.

#218
snackrat

snackrat
  • Members
  • 2 577 messages
Okay, continuing from my last maths keeping mind that it is 10% PER GOLD SLOT and not 10% PER PSP, the average cost of a black card is 495,000. (99,000 / 2 =  49,500 to look at only ONE rare slot... 49,500 * 10 = 495,000 to see value of black if drop is 10%).

There are 21 URs, each of which has ten ranks, so to get all to X, you must get a black card 210 times.

210 x 495,000 = 103,950,000

HAVE HOPE PEOPLE, it will take about 693.. platinum.. games... nope never mind, it looks better than the OP shows it but that still sucks ass. Damn.

#219
IAmTheForce

IAmTheForce
  • Members
  • 7 messages
Easy fix for this is just make the UR drop rate say like 50% for people with all rares max. I have every rare equipment, character, and gun topped out and still have less than a third my URs

#220
CmnDwnWrkn

CmnDwnWrkn
  • Members
  • 4 336 messages

Karsciyin wrote...

Okay, continuing from my last maths keeping mind that it is 10% PER GOLD SLOT and not 10% PER PSP, the average cost of a black card is 495,000. (99,000 / 2 =  49,500 to look at only ONE rare slot... 49,500 * 10 = 495,000 to see value of black if drop is 10%).

There are 21 URs, each of which has ten ranks, so to get all to X, you must get a black card 210 times.

210 x 495,000 = 103,950,000

HAVE HOPE PEOPLE, it will take about 693.. platinum.. games... nope never mind, it looks better than the OP shows it but that still sucks ass. Damn.


Since when is the drop rate 10% per rare slot?  I haven't looked at any recent data, but the data for a while showed about 5% drop rate for SP (1 slot) and 10% for PSP (2 slots).  Has it really changed that much?

#221
El Franko

El Franko
  • Members
  • 41 messages
I don't see much difference for me. I already got maxed the URs I wanted, and this actually saves me having to do weekend challenges till September or October to get the Hurricane and Valiant maxed.

I play tons of hours regardless of what the packs give me. Eventually I will get them and will still be playing afterwards. I understand wanting to get things faster, especially when there's weeks without UR drops, but at the same time is great to play for something long term. It's more fun for me unlocking stuff along the way than grinding and doing silly challenges to get a commendation pack.

#222
snackrat

snackrat
  • Members
  • 2 577 messages

IAmTheForce wrote...

Easy fix for this is just make the UR drop rate say like 50% for people with all rares max. I have every rare equipment, character, and gun topped out and still have less than a third my URs


25% both cards gold (0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25)
25% both card black (0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25)
50% one of each (1 - 0.25 - 0.25)

That's an average of one per pack. That's WAAAAY two much. Unless you mean like, a drop rate of 50% per pack on average, which is more like 25% per card:

56.25% both gold (0.75 x 0.75 = 0.5625)
6.25% both black (0.25 x 0.25 = 0.0625)
37.5% one of each (1 - 0.0625 - 0.5625 = 0.375)

...which gives a little less than half. Still a bit high imo, I want my URs too but I think 20% (double rate) would be a good position.

Modifié par Karsciyin, 13 mars 2013 - 04:01 .


#223
snackrat

snackrat
  • Members
  • 2 577 messages

CmnDwnWrkn wrote...

Karsciyin wrote...

Okay, continuing from my last maths keeping mind that it is 10% PER GOLD SLOT and not 10% PER PSP, the average cost of a black card is 495,000. (99,000 / 2 =  49,500 to look at only ONE rare slot... 49,500 * 10 = 495,000 to see value of black if drop is 10%).

There are 21 URs, each of which has ten ranks, so to get all to X, you must get a black card 210 times.

210 x 495,000 = 103,950,000

HAVE HOPE PEOPLE, it will take about 693.. platinum.. games... nope never mind, it looks better than the OP shows it but that still sucks ass. Damn.


Since when is the drop rate 10% per rare slot?  I haven't looked at any recent data, but the data for a while showed about 5% drop rate for SP (1 slot) and 10% for PSP (2 slots).  Has it really changed that much?


Link to the last maths includes link to the tabulated results. ProBiotic has been gathering these from many different members, including screenshot evidence, hoping to create a large enough sample size.
Also note in my 'last maths' I do point out I am rounding to 10%, which is also the BSN's general opinion on drop per gold. The actual could be as low as 8.5%.

While it may be 5% for a single gold card, if there is a second gold card adding another 5% is a classic mathetical mistake. It doesn't allow for them both being calculated together - it assumed you will only get one or the other, and the second being counted only after the first has rolled.
Assuming it is 10% per card, the overall is 18% for either, not 20%.

Modifié par Karsciyin, 13 mars 2013 - 04:07 .


#224
novac3721

novac3721
  • Members
  • 3 messages
Listen to the math gods here, make UR cards more frequent.

#225
shadowkinz

shadowkinz
  • Members
  • 1 864 messages
i just wish there was more to the MP itself.. i have all characters and most UR at like 5 average (a scorpion at 10 and a lancer at 1 for example), but it's like what's the point of doing the same thing over and over with them lol.

that's why i never understood why people play the same class a few games in a row, or permanently as a main. i can never understand that, bc since the enemies and matches are pretty much always the same, the difference should be how u experience it as your character right? xD

basically my point is all these URs waht's the point xD. i know the point is to use diff things against the same enemies/maps, like i just said, but it's kinda redundant, as fun as it is =(