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[CosmicBuffalo]

 For Mass Effect 3 there are three main themes that work together, all factoring equally into what kind of tech support is given to the game, the drop rates for weapon packs, and how much DLC is produced:  Profitability, Game Longevity/Replayability, & Balance.  I've put everything together here in the smallest nutshell I possibly can.  

***Profitability***
First off, the purpose of creating any videogame such as Mass Effect 3 is to make money.  Fact.  For the individuals that do not know, making money from initial sales of video games is difficult.  Even with the advent of charging for online passes, the used market has taken a huge chunk out of the sales revenue from this game.  Granted, many of you are die-hard ME fans and probably pre-ordered the game new as I did, but you are not the majority anymore.  Game developers have been forced to find new methods to gain revenue in order to provide support for their games.

As BroJo stated in a recent thread, the packs ultimately pay his salary.  Salaries are what is required if we want expensive patches, new weapons, new side missions, new characters, new mods, and new equipment.  Without the scarcity of the rarest items, individuals would not purchase packs, and many of the DLC's may never have been developed.

***Game Longevity/Replayability***
Many of you have waited anxiously for the release of a new videogame, only to shell out $60 and beat the game in two sittings, after which the game is traded in, or put on a shelf.  How many of you have done that with Mass Effect 3?  A good game, a good story, leaves you wanting more.  It challenges you, makes you a better gamer, and rewards you for the time you've spent.   Most of us have promoted at least one class, and have unlocked at least one banner, but the true measure we all look to is what weapons have been unlocked.  

I've seen threads where individuals have talked about long UR dry spells.  My own longest dry spell was 42 Premium Spectre Packs in a row with no UR.  On the other hand, today I pulled three URs from three packs in a row.  Let's break this down.

We've calculated the odds of pulling an UR from a Premuim Spectre many times, and we agree that the absolute minimum is 10%.  This means around 90% of the time no sexy N7 background for you.

The odds of getting 3 UR's in a row is:  10%*10%*10% (or 10% to the 3rd power) = 0.1% or 1 in a thousand

The odds of getting 42 packs with no UR's:  %90^42 (90% to the 42nd power) = 1.2% or 12 in a thousand

You may AVERAGE a single UR per million credits spent, but you are not guaranteed one.  You may get several rather quick, and then have a long dry spell.  In Psychology, this is called Variable Ratio Positive Reinforcement, and is scientifically proven to generate the highest number of 'responses' (packs being opened) in the shortest amount of time.  Wanting a UR to drop with the every purchase is the same thing as wanting a slot machine to pay out every time you pull the handle.  Granted, it would be nice for those of us who simply want all the new weapons (cough*Lancer*cough), but it's not going to happen, Bioware would go broke.  You have to earn them.

***Balance***
If UR weapons are given away too freely, the game would be 'beaten' far too easily and quickly.  This would have the side-effect of decreasing revenue from pack-purchases, as well as decreasing player traffic, which decreases word-of-mouth, which decreases purchases, which comes full circle and decreases player traffic.  On the other hand, being too stingy with UR (or even rare or UC) weapon drops would cause players to lose hope, and the same downward spiral would ensue.  All-in-all, BALANCE must be the main theme here.  

There have been many threads calling for various 'nerfs' to weapons or classes to bring a certain order to things.  Bioware's goal on the financial side is no different, except with the added risk that if they get it wrong, the support for this game, the DLC, the story, even future titles, might all end.  To quote a dear friend:  "Someone else may have gotten it wrong."

***Conclusion***
The individuals at Bioware are tasked with a difficult job:  Managing us, the players, while taking into account the financial impact of everything they do.  They can't discuss drop rates because that means explaining their entire financial model, forecasts of player traffic, and profit margins of potential DLCs.  Trade secrets.  Mass Effect 3 is a superb game, one I will remember (and play) forever, along with Goldeneye and MarioKart GP.  When you press the developers for information, remember, they're just people doing a job (granted, a cool one), not emotionless programming automatons.  They BUILT this masterpeice for us, so lets keep the drama to a minimum and sit back and enjoy it.

[Bryan Johnson]

Interesting analysis, I enjoyed reading if I am honest