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An Analysis of Bioware & General Game Mechanics


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#1
CosmicBuffalo

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 For Mass Effect 3 there are three main themes that work together, all factoring equally into what kind of tech support is given to the game, the drop rates for weapon packs, and how much DLC is produced:  Profitability, Game Longevity/Replayability, & Balance.  I've put everything together here in the smallest nutshell I possibly can.  

***Profitability***
First off, the purpose of creating any videogame such as Mass Effect 3 is to make money.  Fact.  For the individuals that do not know, making money from initial sales of video games is difficult.  Even with the advent of charging for online passes, the used market has taken a huge chunk out of the sales revenue from this game.  Granted, many of you are die-hard ME fans and probably pre-ordered the game new as I did, but you are not the majority anymore.  Game developers have been forced to find new methods to gain revenue in order to provide support for their games.

As BroJo stated in a recent thread, the packs ultimately pay his salary.  Salaries are what is required if we want expensive patches, new weapons, new side missions, new characters, new mods, and new equipment.  Without the scarcity of the rarest items, individuals would not purchase packs, and many of the DLC's may never have been developed.

***Game Longevity/Replayability***
Many of you have waited anxiously for the release of a new videogame, only to shell out $60 and beat the game in two sittings, after which the game is traded in, or put on a shelf.  How many of you have done that with Mass Effect 3?  A good game, a good story, leaves you wanting more.  It challenges you, makes you a better gamer, and rewards you for the time you've spent.   Most of us have promoted at least one class, and have unlocked at least one banner, but the true measure we all look to is what weapons have been unlocked.  

I've seen threads where individuals have talked about long UR dry spells.  My own longest dry spell was 42 Premium Spectre Packs in a row with no UR.  On the other hand, today I pulled three URs from three packs in a row.  Let's break this down.

We've calculated the odds of pulling an UR from a Premuim Spectre many times, and we agree that the absolute minimum is 10%.  This means around 90% of the time no sexy N7 background for you.

The odds of getting 3 UR's in a row is:  10%*10%*10% (or 10% to the 3rd power) = 0.1% or 1 in a thousand

The odds of getting 42 packs with no UR's:  %90^42 (90% to the 42nd power) = 1.2% or 12 in a thousand

You may AVERAGE a single UR per million credits spent, but you are not guaranteed one.  You may get several rather quick, and then have a long dry spell.  In Psychology, this is called Variable Ratio Positive Reinforcement, and is scientifically proven to generate the highest number of 'responses' (packs being opened) in the shortest amount of time.  Wanting a UR to drop with the every purchase is the same thing as wanting a slot machine to pay out every time you pull the handle.  Granted, it would be nice for those of us who simply want all the new weapons (cough*Lancer*cough), but it's not going to happen, Bioware would go broke.  You have to earn them.

***Balance***
If UR weapons are given away too freely, the game would be 'beaten' far too easily and quickly.  This would have the side-effect of decreasing revenue from pack-purchases, as well as decreasing player traffic, which decreases word-of-mouth, which decreases purchases, which comes full circle and decreases player traffic.  On the other hand, being too stingy with UR (or even rare or UC) weapon drops would cause players to lose hope, and the same downward spiral would ensue.  All-in-all, BALANCE must be the main theme here.  

There have been many threads calling for various 'nerfs' to weapons or classes to bring a certain order to things.  Bioware's goal on the financial side is no different, except with the added risk that if they get it wrong, the support for this game, the DLC, the story, even future titles, might all end.  To quote a dear friend:  "Someone else may have gotten it wrong."

***Conclusion***
The individuals at Bioware are tasked with a difficult job:  Managing us, the players, while taking into account the financial impact of everything they do.  They can't discuss drop rates because that means explaining their entire financial model, forecasts of player traffic, and profit margins of potential DLCs.  Trade secrets.  Mass Effect 3 is a superb game, one I will remember (and play) forever, along with Goldeneye and MarioKart GP.  When you press the developers for information, remember, they're just people doing a job (granted, a cool one), not emotionless programming automatons.  They BUILT this masterpeice for us, so lets keep the drama to a minimum and sit back and enjoy it.

#2
JediHarbinger

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Agreed..

Uhh.. I actually lied.

Is this about not complaining about the store or the common bugs?

TL;DR

Modifié par JediHarbinger, 15 mars 2013 - 03:58 .


#3
SavagelyEpic

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wat

#4
Tokenusername

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You seem to be confusing the difference between developers and publishers.

#5
JediHarbinger

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Still haven't read it...

If its regards to bugs then I wish they would address the most obvious ones like the Krogan Hulk Biotic Hammer not registering, I got a right to be a little perturbed..

Also I just wanted to

B
U
M      
P

B)

Modifié par JediHarbinger, 15 mars 2013 - 04:40 .


#6
CosmicBuffalo

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Tokenusername wrote...

You seem to be confusing the difference between developers and publishers.


The developers work for the publishers under a budget.  No money coming in, no developer work.

#7
IllusiveManJr

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Omnibutton

#8
CosmicBuffalo

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JediHarbinger wrote...

Still haven't read it...

If its regards to bugs then I wish they would address the most obvious ones like the Krogan Hulk Biotic Hammer not registering, I got a right to be a little perturbed..

Also I just wanted to

B
U
M      
P

B)


Thanks for the bump, but no, this is for individuals who don't seem to understand the role of the developer team or the business mechanics behind creating a successful videogame.

#9
Tokenusername

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CosmicBuffalo wrote...

Tokenusername wrote...

You seem to be confusing the difference between developers and publishers.


The developers work for the publishers under a budget.  No money coming in, no developer work.

You are implying heavily that the microtransaction system was decided upon by, and solely beneficial to the developers.

#10
BjornDaDwarf

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Came for mechanics, found a business plan.

You seem to be justifying BW/EA's store model though. While it is one viable business model for microtransactions, that doesn't mean that it is the only viable way. Microtransaction games are proving that they can be sustained by a robust number of variations, including ones that are less ethically dubious than depending on the slot machine gambling effect.

I wholeheartedly support BW/EA's ability to generate consistent revenue for things like ME3: MP, particularly when a year's worth of content has been released for it. But there are other, and I suspect better, ways to monetize that have more respect for customers.

#11
Pyroninja42

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Tokenusername wrote...

You seem to be confusing the difference between developers and publishers.


It's the Game Development-Profitibility Complex, man! It's running everything, man!

#12
Guest_Flaming Snake_*

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Please create a tl;dr.

Some of us are lazy.

#13
CosmicBuffalo

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Tokenusername wrote...

CosmicBuffalo wrote...

Tokenusername wrote...

You seem to be confusing the difference between developers and publishers.


The developers work for the publishers under a budget.  No money coming in, no developer work.

You are implying heavily that the microtransaction system was decided upon by, and solely beneficial to the developers.


I'm saying that it is NOT the developers call to discuss/change this system, as was almost implicitly stated by BroJo in a thread that seems to have disappeared.  They are simply playing the hand dealt them.

#14
CosmicBuffalo

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BjornDaDwarf wrote...

Came for mechanics, found a business plan.

You seem to be justifying BW/EA's store model though. While it is one viable business model for microtransactions, that doesn't mean that it is the only viable way. Microtransaction games are proving that they can be sustained by a robust number of variations, including ones that are less ethically dubious than depending on the slot machine gambling effect.

I wholeheartedly support BW/EA's ability to generate consistent revenue for things like ME3: MP, particularly when a year's worth of content has been released for it. But there are other, and I suspect better, ways to monetize that have more respect for customers.


I am justifying it.  And I'm not saying it is the only viable way.  I'm just saying that's the way it is.  However, it is not dubious.  It is in fact quite transparent.  There have been numerous threads detailing the drop rates of UR weapons, most found the rates to be between 10 to 15%.  The estimated amount of credits can then be calculated by simple math - the numbers are not outrageous.  I've known quite a few individuals that had maxed manifests well before the newest DLC.  It is absolutely attainable, so why change it?  It is the same concept as a slot machine, but nothing so devious or convoluted.  You cannot LOSE at purchasing packs.

#15
millahnna

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Your thread title may be a bit misleading, but a nicely stated sentiment all the same.

I work in a crappy min wage customer service job and have done that kind of work off and on for years. One of the most frustrating things about abusive customers (not just rude because they're a little hungry and cranky but the flat out jerkwads) is that they usually haven't done that kind of work, and therefore don't get that me cutting their steak up into little bitty pieces (random example from my waitressing history) in the middle of a Saturday night bar rush at a 24 hour diner is just not practical. I can either have one table yelling at me for not cutting up their steak or I can have all of my other tables yelling at me because I gave them bad service so that I could cater to one jerkwad (true story, guy left without paying when I refused and got arrested for tax evasion 3 days later, good times).

My point; I always try to put myself in someone else's shoes, particularly when it comes to jobs that I've never done, and more particularly in customer service jobs I've never done (the people on the phone at my bank's cust. svc line, doctors and nurses, video game developers, etc.). Nice to see someone else do likewise. BW has done some stuff with this game that I'm disappointed in but the net gain for me was pretty awesome.

#16
Grunt_Platform

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BjornDaDwarf wrote...

Came for mechanics, found a business plan.

You seem to be justifying BW/EA's store model though. While it is one viable business model for microtransactions, that doesn't mean that it is the only viable way. Microtransaction games are proving that they can be sustained by a robust number of variations, including ones that are less ethically dubious than depending on the slot machine gambling effect.

I wholeheartedly support BW/EA's ability to generate consistent revenue for things like ME3: MP, particularly when a year's worth of content has been released for it. But there are other, and I suspect better, ways to monetize that have more respect for customers.

I completely agree with this.

It would probably require a more robust store interface, and I totally get why ME3 doesn't have that. But going forward, I think there's better options.

#17
CosmicBuffalo

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millahnna wrote...

Your thread title may be a bit misleading, but a nicely stated sentiment all the same.

I work in a crappy min wage customer service job and have done that kind of work off and on for years. One of the most frustrating things about abusive customers (not just rude because they're a little hungry and cranky but the flat out jerkwads) is that they usually haven't done that kind of work, and therefore don't get that me cutting their steak up into little bitty pieces (random example from my waitressing history) in the middle of a Saturday night bar rush at a 24 hour diner is just not practical. I can either have one table yelling at me for not cutting up their steak or I can have all of my other tables yelling at me because I gave them bad service so that I could cater to one jerkwad (true story, guy left without paying when I refused and got arrested for tax evasion 3 days later, good times).

My point; I always try to put myself in someone else's shoes, particularly when it comes to jobs that I've never done, and more particularly in customer service jobs I've never done (the people on the phone at my bank's cust. svc line, doctors and nurses, video game developers, etc.). Nice to see someone else do likewise. BW has done some stuff with this game that I'm disappointed in but the net gain for me was pretty awesome.


Not sure which part is misleading, but I agree with your story.  I believe this was summed nicely in a quote by Abraham Lincoln:  "You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time."

Hey, I LOVED the Krysae.  Favorite weapon hands down before the nerf.  I was severely disappointed after, but I understand why it was done and I didn't let it affect my fun, just found new ways to blow up stuff :)

I'm with you.  I work in customer service (in financial management), and I've had my fair share of people yelling at me for things that were beyond my (or my company's) control.  It's not fun. 

#18
CosmicBuffalo

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EvanKester wrote...

BjornDaDwarf wrote...

Came for mechanics, found a business plan.

You seem to be justifying BW/EA's store model though. While it is one viable business model for microtransactions, that doesn't mean that it is the only viable way. Microtransaction games are proving that they can be sustained by a robust number of variations, including ones that are less ethically dubious than depending on the slot machine gambling effect.

I wholeheartedly support BW/EA's ability to generate consistent revenue for things like ME3: MP, particularly when a year's worth of content has been released for it. But there are other, and I suspect better, ways to monetize that have more respect for customers.

I completely agree with this.

It would probably require a more robust store interface, and I totally get why ME3 doesn't have that. But going forward, I think there's better options.


So we figure out what the better options are and then get hired to work on the store for the next game.  Maybe they'll let us play it early =)

#19
millahnna

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CosmicBuffalo wrote...

So we figure out what the better options are and then get hired to work on the store for the next game.  Maybe they'll let us play it early =)


Honestly, I expect they'll tweak the store system a bit in the next game just from feedback in this game.  Much like I expect that if they go for hoarde mode again next time, they'll add other game modes too because of feedback from this game.

#20
CosmicBuffalo

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millahnna wrote...

Honestly, I expect they'll tweak the store system a bit in the next game just from feedback in this game.  Much like I expect that if they go for hoarde mode again next time, they'll add other game modes too because of feedback from this game.


I agree.  They've learned much from this multiplayer.  Though not sure how different the store system will be unless someone comes up with a really good idea.  The 'slot machine' method is tried-and-true - if somewhat dramatic.  Definitely agree on the game modes though.

Just no PVP, please...  Don't turn my precious Mass Effect into CoD, Halo...

#21
millahnna

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I figure if nothing else they'll tweak the percentages on the slot machine store a wee bit. I agree we're probably a ways out (a few years at best) from a truly revamped microtransaction system that isn't nearly as frustrating as the store can be for some people.

I actually wouldn't mind them adding a PvP mode, as long as there was still a co-op. I totally share your concerns there but am not completely opposed to an option that included PvP.

I just worry about EA's influence on the direction of everything. I'm a die hard The Sims junky who flat out will not touch another Sims title becuase of some crazy crap that went down EA side with Sims 2. Until I figures out that EA had taken over BW I actually made a point of not buying EA games period. But then Dragon Age and Mass Effect and here we are (came to both franchises well after they were solidly established).

#22
Grunt_Platform

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CosmicBuffalo wrote...

So we figure out what the better options are and then get hired to work on the store for the next game.  Maybe they'll let us play it early =)

Haha, yeah, pretty sure that wouldn't work. But it's a nice sentiment. I haven't sat down to do extensive research, I'll admit. But I've already seen models in practice that are a bit less frustrating than the skinner-box model.

For example, a random distribution system (either from item drops, randomized packs, or a similar method) supplemented with either in-game trading, a real-money market that can be allowed to bypass the grind of the normal method, or even both. Maintaining some form of system to reward players not only for buying packs in Origin, but even for using Origin to purchase other titles could be profitable.

I wouldn't dream of saying anything concrete as an actual business proposal without doing some serious number crunching, though. And I don't have the relevant numbers to work with, nor am I being paid to do it so... nah. With the information I have at hand, it's entirely possible the current store system really is ideal but... I'm skeptical. For one thing, buying packs with BioWare points is a slow, painful and generally unreliable process.

EDIT: I have no doubt that in the future, the incentives for microtransactions will be a bit better. Hopefully not in the form of real money exclusive items though. If nothing else, a more streamlined, less painful experience would be nice.

Modifié par EvanKester, 15 mars 2013 - 06:47 .


#23
Bryan Johnson

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Interesting analysis, I enjoyed reading if I am honest

#24
Xaijin

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We've calculated the odds of pulling an UR from a Premuim Spectre many times, and we agree that the absolute minimum is 10%. This means around 90% of the time no sexy N7 background for you.



Try 4%.

Omnibutton


Is a game design no-no if your game is not a free form platformer or point and click adventure. ME is neither of those. Terrible horrendous terrible awful migraine inducing terrible ****ing decision. Also terrible.

#25
weaselshep

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The way I see it. I bought ME3 for the SP game. I had very little intent on playing the MP portion at all.
One year later I am still playing it. They gave two options for getting better gear. Play in game earn credits, buy. Or pay out and buy. No one is forced to pay for any of the gear. One does not need a harrier to make it. There isn't any valid complaint about the store.