120 réponses à ce sujet

[lyleoffmyspace]

Or were they just too many Darkspawn? If Loghain had stuck to the battle plan could they have got victory or was it the right decision for him to save half the army because the battle was lost anyway?

[Warden Commander David]

No one can really say for sure...but in my opinion...it could have been.

Even though the beacon was lit late...I still think Loghain had enough men to win it.

This is just my opinion of course.

[cJohnOne]

Of course if the writers say they win the battle then they win the battle but not the war of course.

[Forst1999]

Hard to say. Duncan did not seem overtly pessimistic, so I think he thought winning was possible. So the question is whether the intel on the size of the horde was accurate. I see nothing that suggests they were surprised by how big it was, and Loghain certainly did not pull back only when he saw the size of the horde.

[FreakyBigGuy]

Its difficult to estimate, but everyone seemed realistically optimistic. Loghain just complained about Cailan's position in the "bait" force. He despised Cailan for playing war and felt He should tell how to run the war -> Let Cailan die and help his daughter as her general of armies.

He also downplayed the importance of Grey Wardens out of ignorance. Anora is somewhat like her father. She thinks she knows best and this is the start of slippery slope to total tyranny.

[ejoslin]

The horde was much larger than anticipated. They had fought a few battles already and there was no reason for anyone to think that this battle would be different.

Though... when I think about Alistair's dialog there, it doesn't make much sense. Alistair was surprised and disappointed that he wouldn't be fighting, but had he fought in those previous battles, I can't imagine that he would have had the same reaction.

Urgh, I may be misremembering dialog. It's been awhile since I've played.

[Warden Commander David]

ejoslin wrote...

The horde was much larger than anticipated. They had fought a few battles already and there was no reason for anyone to think that this battle would be different.

Though... when I think about Alistair's dialog there, it doesn't make much sense. Alistair was surprised and disappointed that he wouldn't be fighting, but had he fought in those previous battles, I can't imagine that he would have had the same reaction.

Urgh, I may be misremembering dialog. It's been awhile since I've played.

I don't really think it was larger than anticipated.

Their plan to flank them seems to show that they knew they would be facing a large horde.


As for Alistair's dialog...you have to remember when he talks to you about being Maric's son. He says even Duncan kept him out of the fighting because of it. So I think Alistair would be disappointed that he wouldn't be fighting no matter what battle it was.

Modifié par Warden Commander David, 19 mars 2013 - 07:44 .

[DaniIsME]

As far as we know Loghain didn't pull out the moment the battle started so it might suggest that he knew HE COULD have won that battle be he knew that if he wouldn't flank the Darkspawn the battle would be lost... So yeah, the facts are speaking for them self.

[Fiacre]

IIRC, Gaider confirmed that the horde was indeed larger than was anticipated, but gave no absolute confirmation whether it could have been won or not. Considering that the cutscene shows us that the vanguard was already collapsing and that apparently not all Darkspawn were in the valley by the time the beacon was lit, I think it likely couldn't have been won or, at most, would have been pyrrhic victory.

Incidentally, TEWR has made some great posts and KoP an awesome blog entry on the matter, explaining and presenting all the evidence that the battle would have been lost in great detail.

[TEWR]

No. Not with what troops were at Ostagar.

[Analander]

It is said during the Return to Ostagar DLC that Cailan knew that there wasn't going to be any victory in Ostagar, despite all his bravado. Combine this with the fact that Loghain was watching the battle and still decided to pull his men out, and the answer is clear, to me at least.

Modifié par Analander, 20 mars 2013 - 12:39 .

[Angrywolves]

Perhaps. The Greeks did beat the Persians when the Persians had more troops and later on Alexander the Great beat them and I believe he was outnumbered as well. Size of the Horde alone would not have guaranteed the dark forces victory imo.

[Warden Commander David]

Analander wrote...

It is said during the Return to Ostagar DLC that Cailan knew that there wasn't going to be any victory in Ostagar, despite all his bravado. Combine this with the fact that Loghain was watching the battle and still decided to pull his men out, and the answer is clear, to me at least.

He only says that if you choose a certain dialog.

Also...it was said by someone who deserted.

He only says that to ease his, admitted, guilty conscience for deserting.

The idea of Cailin, the King, sending in that many men and women including himself...to certain death is absolutely absurd. Especially when so many other steps could have been taken to reinforce the soldiers they already had there.

Modifié par Warden Commander David, 20 mars 2013 - 02:43 .

[Lavaeolus]

In all honesty... the battle was hedgey. Loghain didn't just abandon the king entirely out of hatred of anything Orelsian, though it certainly didn't help. Keep in mind, Loghain's troops were not Grey Wardens, so they would not be immune to the taint; sending them all in there is practically a death sentence. They would've taken a lot of darkspawn down, but Loghain was basically killing every soldier he had, so it's natural Loghain would favour trying to organise a battle against them on his own terms.

Although some like to picture it in black-and-white terms with Loghain being some sort of traitorous monster, there was a lot more of grey there.

However, take note: Loghain refused Orlesian Grey Warden support. Had he not done that, then yes the darkspawn probably would've been defeated. There would not only be more soldiers, but those soldiers would be Grey Wardens. The Blight, no, but it would've been stalled for a bit. The Fereldan Wardens could even expand more, and by the time there was a Blight... there'd be heavy casualties -- there always are in a Blight -- but they'd be able to take it down with relative ease.

Personally, yeah, I think the battle could've been won. While it was hardly ideal, there was quite the army ready to take on the darkspawn.

Modifié par Mr Maniac, 20 mars 2013 - 11:42 .

[Ferretinabun]

I believe the matter is deliberately vague to keep Loghain an ambiguous villain.

Was he a prudent general unwilling to sacrifice essential troops on a lost cause? Or a traitor whose skullduggery cost the Fereldens the battle?

Since he didn't stay, we'll never know. And it's great that way.

[FreakyBigGuy]

I would like to say that the battle was fought mostly on the terms of Fereldan forces. They had the luxury of selecting narrow defensible position that was the only fast way for the horde to move in Ferelden.

I would suggest you read the section of War council (Battle of Ostagar - Dragon age wiki), which partly is based on ingame codex entry.

[FreakyBigGuy]

I'm playing the Dwarf commoner story now and got to Ostagar. The guard at the gate to King's Higway replies only something like this:

Two units of men arrive hourly and its expected to be double that tomorrow yet the teyrn still worries it won't be enough.

[Riverdaleswhiteflash]

The plan was to flank the darkspawn, which relies on the portion of the army under Loghain's command charging when the darkspawn are all or mostly all in the valley, with Cailan's forces set to prevent retreat.This plan is why the darkspawn numbers are supposed to be surmountable. Had everything happened as it was meant to, the battle might have been winnable. Or maybe it wouldn't have been. I'm not going to bother to argue that point, because of the below one.

What has to be understood about the battle is that its not the one the plan was meant to win. This is often true, but in this case the differences are insurmountable. Instead of the above, what happens is that the beacon goes off while there are still darkspawn pouring into the valley. Loghain sees that the plan is not being followed, and knows that trying to follow the plan without a scout's signal that there's no darkspawn ready to flank him runs the risk of absolute failure. Furthermore, if you look out at the darkspawn column while crossing the bridge to the Tower of Ishal, you will see that it stretches past the horizon. I don't think a flanking plan would work there, meaning that even without the atttack on the Tower, the plan was doomed. Alistair jumping to the conclusion that the signal had to be lit right then might be the only reason it was lit at all.

(This can all be found, in greater detail, in KoP's blog post.)

Modifié par Riverdaleswhiteflash, 24 mars 2013 - 09:15 .

[cJohnOne]

I think the great horde of Darkspawn theory doesn't make sense because they would have conqured Fereldan too fast for the events to have unfolded the way they did. Loghain would have probably welcomed the Orlaisian forces if that happened. So the size of the horde must have been less than what you are implying. Or else Loghain really doesn't know what he's doing.

Modifié par cJohnOne, 24 mars 2013 - 10:35 .

[Riverdaleswhiteflash]

I'm aware of all of that. Just the same, I'm saying what the game shows. The horde of spawn past the horizon can be seen right after the scene with the mabari hound charge, if you look out over the battlefield in third person view. And during Loghain's retreat, you can see spawn still pouring in. The darkspawn flank is noplace in sight.

And yes, an army that size probably should have steamrolled Ferelden while gleefully singing the Curbstomp song. And in fact, they basically clean up whenever they fight anyone. I can only assume they just stay where they are for most of the game. Heck, they clean up at Denerim too, at least before the Warden shows up. Apparently, they still have the sheer numbers to win, too. It's just that they stop fighting when the Archdemon bites it. Presumably, if they didn't all cut and run, there would be no such thing as Denerim after a few days fighting.

As for Loghain not knowing what he's doing, TEWR and KoP put that down to Bioware not knowing how to portray competent generals. I think there's probably some of that going on, coupled with Loghain just being mentally unable to accept help from Orlais for various chevalier-related reasons.

Modifié par Riverdaleswhiteflash, 25 mars 2013 - 03:33 .

[TEWR]

And yes, an army that size probably should have steamrolled Ferelden while gleefully singing the Curbstomp song. And in fact, they basically clean up whenever they fight anyone. I can only assume they just stay where they are for most of the game. Heck, they clean up at Denerim too, at least before the Warden shows up. Apparently, they still have the sheer numbers to win, too. It's just that they stop fighting when the Archdemon bites it. Presumably, if they didn't all cut and run, there would be no such thing as Denerim after a few days fighting.

There are a few things to note. Like you believe, it seems likely the Darkspawn just chill at each new conquered haven. Who knows... maybe the Archdemon has them making them defendable.

Even so, the Archdemon was biding its time by sending the Darkspawn about in scattered bands throughout the country, no doubt taking advantage of the peoples' sentiment that it wasn't a true Blight and strengthening that until Ferelden looked like it could be easily conquered. And it almost worked too.

[cJohnOne]

Loghain didn't believe in the blight. Faced with an ocean of darkspawn he'd have to brillantly conclude, no blight.

[Fuggyt]

Based on what I've always seen in-game, I believe we are supposed to presume that the Battle of Ostagar was winnable and that Loghain's withdrawal was a calculated act of betrayal. The look on Duncan's face when he sees the beacon and realizes the relief is not coming says it all.

In the cut-scene when Loghain pulls out, he and Cathrian are leading a pretty substantial number of troops. They are perfectly positioned, based on Loghain's point of view back toward the Tower of Ishal, to take the darkspawn in the rear right flank. When you return to Ostagar, you can even visit the battlefield and see the general area where Loghain's troops must have been concealed, and it's clear the darkspawn would've been trapped between Loghain's hammer and the anvil of Ostagar's defenses. The approach there is a funnel and the darkspawn would've been able to deploy only a fragment of their full strength. Sheer numbers matter little in such a tactical position, as the Romans found out at Cannae.

But Loghain's actions afterwards are even more damning. He names himself regent and blames the defeat on the Grey Wardens when he knows perfectly well there were only three measly Wardens present in the first place who had nothing to do with planning or leading the battle. Right away, many in Ferelden find Loghain's withdrawal, as Teagon puts it, "most fortuitous." When his own daughter openly confronts him with murdering her husband, Loghain can only reply, with little conviction in his tone, "Cailan's death was his own doing." These are the "acts of a desperate man," as Teagon says later, not to mention the acts of a man with a burden on his conscience. Anora plainly doesn't believe him, why should we?

I've seen the case made that Loghain's action was the shrewd move of a great general who, confronted with an untenable position, snatched his command from the jaws of death and saved his troops to fight another day. I'll concede there's just enough grey area there to redeem Loghain if you really want to spare him later, but I don't buy it. I think he knows what he did and he knows why he did it.

[TEWR]

I still say BioWare wrote a massive plothole with Loghain. He spends the entire game insisting that the darkspawn are no true threat and there is no Blight, yet he withdrew because he somehow knew how numerous and organized they were?

Believing the Darkspawn are so numerous as to make the battle a failure does not in any way presuppose or necessitate one believing it to be a Blight. Yes, he saw a massive horde. But a massive horde does not automatically scream Blight.

Given how, as I said, the Archdemon took advantage of the peoples' thoughts on whether it was a Blight or not, Loghain's "This is no Blight" is even more justified. The Archdemon was strengthening the idea that there was no Blight by sending out the Darkspawn under his command in isolated ragtag groups, which gives one the notion that they aren't unified. They are, but how they're acting leads one to believe they aren't.

And he did believe the Darkspawn were a threat. In the Landsmeet cutscene, he acknowledges that the Darkspawn incursion must be dealt with swiftly, more so with Cailan dead so as to not appear weak in the eyes of their neighbors. When the Bannorn prioritized petty politics over uniting under Loghain's banner -- his comments not lending themselves well to such a thing, certainly -- Loghain was forced to fight the civil war so as to unite the nation.

The look on Duncan's face when he sees the beacon and realizes the relief is not coming says it all.

No it doesn't. Duncan's the man who sent out his most seasoned veterans in one battle, knowing full well things could go wrong, instead of keeping a few of his veterans somewhere where they could retreat if things went wrong. So it fell to the recruits, one of whom was a GW for 6 months and was never told about how to stop a Blight in full. All Alistair knew was "We kill the Archdemon", but that's it.

Duncan's the guy that didn't even attempt to get the Dwarves of Orzammar to fight in the Blight, when they hold a copy of the treaty they signed. Or get the Elves of the Dalish to try and spread the word that it's a Blight, even if more then likely people wouldn't believe them.

He's not a bad guy, but he's not a stellar commander. Thankfully, he tries to get the Mages to enter the battle (and the Chantry just goes "Bah!")

The approach there is a funnel and the darkspawn would've been able to deploy only a fragment of their full strength. Sheer numbers matter little in such a tactical position, as the Romans found out at Cannae.

Bear in mind Cailan actually ruined the plan by charging out of the defensible position.

See here for some of my detailed explanations on Ostagar and why it was unwinnable, also dealing with Cailan's mindset during the battle.

I would just post it here, but I have to head out to work for the next five hours

Modifié par The Ethereal Writer Redux, 25 mars 2013 - 08:47 .