120 réponses à ce sujet

[Mike3207]

Riverdaleswhiteflash wrote...

Truly you are a master of that most misunderstood art.

Also A: There is no evidence given that the original campaign's darkspawn have the concept of a deal. B: The attack can alternatively be explained as the darkspawn discovering the door between the Tower and battlefield that (30 Cunning or no) the Warden has no reasonable way of knowing exists. Still, the fact that the darkspawn interefered with the signal by chance doesn't mean the battle was winnable: they nonetheless interefered with a signal that had to be lit at exactly the right time, and as previously mentioned had an easy way right past the defensive line that the plan depended on.

You make some good points, and I understand my second idea was a bit out there. Still, the one thing that makes me think they could have had the plan is the darkspawn do have rogues that can stealth. If they sent Stealthed rogues in to gather intelligence-well I just think it's possible. It could have been just chance they go into the tower at the same time the battle started, or they might have planned attacking the tower all along. There's really no hard evidence either way, but it was definitely a intriguing idea either way. I'm  looking forward to other dialogue options that come up down the road.

[Riverdaleswhiteflash]

Mike Smith wrote...

Riverdaleswhiteflash wrote...

Truly you are a master of that most misunderstood art.

Also A: There is no evidence given that the original campaign's darkspawn have the concept of a deal. B: The attack can alternatively be explained as the darkspawn discovering the door between the Tower and battlefield that (30 Cunning or no) the Warden has no reasonable way of knowing exists. Still, the fact that the darkspawn interefered with the signal by chance doesn't mean the battle was winnable: they nonetheless interefered with a signal that had to be lit at exactly the right time, and as previously mentioned had an easy way right past the defensive line that the plan depended on.

You make some good points, and I understand my second idea was a bit out there. Still, the one thing that makes me think they could have had the plan is the darkspawn do have rogues that can stealth. If they sent Stealthed rogues in to gather intelligence-well I just think it's possible. It could have been just chance they go into the tower at the same time the battle started, or they might have planned attacking the tower all along. There's really no hard evidence either way, but it was definitely a intriguing idea either way. I'm  looking forward to other dialogue options that come up down the road.

It had occurred to me that the Wardens' link to the darkspawn hive mind might have let Urthemiel sense the plan. On the other hand, that same link would have precluded them sneaking into camp.

Modifié par Riverdaleswhiteflash, 23 novembre 2013 - 07:45 .

[dainbramage]

Riverdaleswhiteflash wrote...

B: The attack can alternatively be explained as the darkspawn discovering the door between the Tower and battlefield that (30 Cunning or no) the Warden has no reasonable way of knowing exists. Still, the fact that the darkspawn interefered with the signal by chance doesn't mean the battle was winnable: they nonetheless interefered with a signal that had to be lit at exactly the right time, and as previously mentioned had an easy way right past the defensive line that the plan depended on.

The door goes into the interior of ostagar, but the darkspawn tunnel from that interior section to the bottom of the tower of ishal. So it's unlikely to be much of an accident.

Personally I'd say it's a way to force you to fight through darkspawn and the devs didn't think about it much.

[Neverwinter_Knight77]

Yes, it truly could have been won, I think.  At the very least, the VIPs would have made it out alive.  Still, they should've waited for the Warden reinforcements from Orlais.

[Riverdaleswhiteflash]

Neverwinter_Knight77 wrote...

At the very least, the VIPs would have made it out alive.

Most of them did. You're right in that Cailan could have too, of course, but that ship sailed basically the instant he found himself on the frontlines.

[Neverwinter_Knight77]

I was referring to both Cailan and Duncan, though the latter was approaching time for his calling.  As the mentor, he was doomed from the start, though.

[lonelyloner]

Neverwinter_Knight77 wrote...

Yes, it truly could have been won, I think.  At the very least, the VIPs would have made it out alive.  Still, they should've waited for the Warden reinforcements from Orlais.

Although that could well be the ideal, battles don't work that way.
The Darkspawn army's coming anyway, how can you tell them to "Hey, don't attack us yet, let's wait for reinforcements from Orlais first!"
No. What's likely happened is the Darkspawn army just kept advancing, giving neither Cailan nor Loghain time to wait any longer. The Darkspawn forced the battle of Ostagar to happen, Loghain and Cailan had to decide then, one way or another.

As for whether the battle could have been won or not? 
Yes, could have been won, had Loghain followed this battle plan.

Cailan's force of his own personal army + Grey Wardens were meant to be bait force, to appear as inviting target for the enemy to charge at. This was why they purposely camped outside Ostagar walls, to goad the Darkspawn to attack. The plan was to eradicate the enemy, so this means most, if not all, of the enemy, must be lured out. Cailan and the Grey Wardens did just that, they succeeded in aggroing the enemy into charging them, and just kept them coming.
So then comes to the second part of the plan, Loghain's ambush.

From tower of Ishal where PC warden and Alistair lit the signal, they could observe the entire battlefield. Alistair did say at Flemeth's house that "Cailan had nearly defeated the Darkspawn", which means from where Alistair observed, the plan must have worked: most of the Darkspawn were already trapped in the valley along with Cailan and the Grey Wardens. All Loghain had to do was brush aside the Darkspawn still outside the valley, then complete the trap. As seen at the cutscene, certainly Loghain had the means, the much larger portion of Fereldan army was with him! 

But nope, Loghain bailed. With all sorts of excuses that's basically he's not going to be faulted for a battle plan he himself devised and he himself fxxked.  Fortuitous!

 

Modifié par lonelyloner, 26 novembre 2013 - 06:01 .

[Riverdaleswhiteflash]

lonelyloner wrote...

Neverwinter_Knight77 wrote...

Yes, it truly could have been won, I think.  At the very least, the VIPs would have made it out alive.  Still, they should've waited for the Warden reinforcements from Orlais.

Although that could well be the ideal, battles don't work that way.
The Darkspawn army's coming anyway, how can you tell them to "Hey, don't attack us yet, let's wait for reinforcements from Orlais first!"
No. What's likely happened is the Darkspawn army just kept advancing, giving neither Cailan nor Loghain time to wait any longer. The Darkspawn forced the battle of Ostagar to happen, Loghain and Cailan had to decide then, one way or another.

Pretty much.

As for whether the battle could have been won or not? 
Yes, could have been won, had Loghain followed this battle plan.

Cailan's force of his own personal army + Grey Wardens were meant to be bait force, to appear as inviting target for the enemy to charge at. This was why they purposely camped outside Ostagar walls, to goad the Darkspawn to attack. The plan was to eradicate the enemy, so this means most, if not all, of the enemy, must be lured out. Cailan and the Grey Wardens did just that, they succeeded in aggroing the enemy into charging them, and just kept them coming.

.

Given the way darkspawn work, charging at them when you could hide behind a barricade seems unneccesary. Given their numbers, it seems foolish. An important consideration is whether Cailan can hold out the entire battle. The way he's fighting it seems like he's doing his level best not to.

So then comes to the second part of the plan, Loghain's ambush.

From tower of Ishal where PC warden and Alistair lit the signal, they could observe the entire battlefield. Alistair did say at Flemeth's house that "Cailan had nearly defeated the Darkspawn", which means from where Alistair observed, the plan must have worked: most of the Darkspawn were already trapped in the valley along with Cailan and the Grey Wardens. All Loghain had to do was brush aside the Darkspawn still outside the valley, then complete the trap. As seen at the cutscene, certainly Loghain had the means, the much larger portion of Fereldan army was with him!

The problem is that not only do we have from the actor motivations that Loghain (who has more experience with actual battle) honestly believed the battle lost, but we still see more darkspawn pouring into the valley as Loghain retreats, and even as Cailan is dying. So at the very least those darkspawn weren't committed.

But nope, Loghain bailed. With all sorts of excuses that's basically he's not going to be faulted for a battle plan he himself devised and he himself fxxked.  Fortuitous!

Pretty good ones, too.

Modifié par Riverdaleswhiteflash, 26 novembre 2013 - 06:30 .

[lonelyloner]

Riverdaleswhiteflash wrote...

As for whether the battle could have been won or not? 
Yes, could have been won, had Loghain followed this battle plan.

Cailan's force of his own personal army + Grey Wardens were meant to be bait force, to appear as inviting target for the enemy to charge at. This was why they purposely camped outside Ostagar walls, to goad the Darkspawn to attack. The plan was to eradicate the enemy, so this means most, if not all, of the enemy, must be lured out. Cailan and the Grey Wardens did just that, they succeeded in aggroing the enemy into charging them, and just kept them coming.

.

Given the way darkspawn work, charging at them when you could hide behind a barricade seems unneccesary. Given their numbers, it seems foolish. An important consideration is whether Cailan can hold out the entire battle. The way he's fighting it seems like he's doing his level best not to.

.

The plan was to agro the darkspawn. To make them think : "Hoo, look, those puny humans are camped in the open, this is totally our chance, let's charge to melee with everything we've got , bedamned anything else!"
The displayed weakness and recklessness on Cailan's army's part was intentional.

Had Cailan's men more or less hunker down into more defensive formations, the Darkspawn would think: "It's not convenient to charge. Let's hang back a bit and use our siege weapons more." 
The Darkspawn does have siege weapons, and they will not commit into all out charge if Cailan does not look vulnerable. The Darkspawn know time's on their side, they could just hang back stay right outside the gorge instead of charging in, and just focus on bombardment with their catapults.
How to trap them then?
No, Loghain's hammer-anvil battle plan demands that the Darkspawn be tempted to go in on all out charge. Cailan and the Grey Warden's bravado, WAS necessary.

So then comes to the second part of the plan, Loghain's ambush.

From tower of Ishal where PC warden and Alistair lit the signal, they could observe the entire battlefield. Alistair did say at Flemeth's house that "Cailan had nearly defeated the Darkspawn", which means from where Alistair observed, the plan must have worked: most of the Darkspawn were already trapped in the valley along with Cailan and the Grey Wardens. All Loghain had to do was brush aside the Darkspawn still outside the valley, then complete the trap. As seen at the cutscene, certainly Loghain had the means, the much larger portion of Fereldan army was with him!

.

The problem is that not only do we have from the actor motivations that Loghain (who has more experience with actual battle) honestly believed the battle lost, but we still see more darkspawn pouring into the valley as Loghain retreats, and even as Cailan is dying. So at the very least those darkspawn weren't committed.

.

The signal being lit's supposed to be for Alistair to let Loghain know that "Hey guys, the plan worked, most of the enemy's already trapped in the gorge, now's the time to attack." To signal the optimal time of attack.
Instead, for Loghain, the signal being lit now means, "Hehehe, the Darkspawn already going on all out charge, no way Cailan and the Grey Wardens can escape now. So it is time to bail."

Loghain devised this battle plan to use Grey Wardens as bait, but he has absolutely no intention on winning the battle. He plans to use the Darkspawn to trap and kill off all the Grey Wardens.

As for Cailan? 
Loghain's best scenario for a take over is: to have Cailan alive, but powerless : thoroughly as Loghain's puppet: with Cailan's plan to ally with Orlais and Grey Wardens thwarted due to losing practically ALL Grey Wardens in Ferelden, making Orlessians and Grey Wardens back off from allying with such an 'inept' king. Plus with Eamon disabled with poison, and Highever taken over, thus leaving Loghain's force as the strongest in Ferelden both militarily and politically, with whom King Cailan would have no choice but to go along.
Loghain wanted Cailan alive as his puppet, this is his plan to ensure Fereldan Independence from Orlessians.

He sincerely wanted Cailan alive, so he tried to persuade Cailan to not join the baiting force.
Ironically, Cailan sealed his own fate by unwittingly putting himself in Loghain's mouse trap, in which not even Loghain could rescue, not without jeopardizing his plan to take over.
So at that point Loghain sort of thought : "Ah well, fxxk it! He wants to die, he dies."

But nope, Loghain bailed. With all sorts of excuses that's basically he's not going to be faulted for a battle plan he himself devised and he himself fxxked.  Fortuitous!

Pretty good ones, too.

Of course they're good ones.
Loghain's not a coward, he's brave and intelligent, no one can deny that..
So his sabotage of his own battle plan must be by design, for his master plan to 'ensure Fereldan Independence', by taking over effective ruling power in Ferelden.

The total destruction of the Grey Wardens was necessary to make Orlessian Grey Wardens suspect treachery and stay away from Cailan and Ferelden, thus making Cailan have no choice but to abandon all his Orlessian plans since he then only have Loghain to rely on.

Except Cailan, in his faith that his tactician would do right by him, decided instead to go with the Grey Wardens.
Loghain simply could not tell Cailan, "Don't go there man, I'm planning to have them all be murdered." Loghain can't say that to Cailan, so in end, ... yeah, just leave Cailan to die with the Wardens then.

[TEWR]

Cailan's force of his own personal army + Grey Wardens were meant to be bait force, to appear as inviting target for the enemy to charge at. This was why they purposely camped outside Ostagar walls, to goad the Darkspawn to attack. The plan was to eradicate the enemy, so this means most, if not all, of the enemy, must be lured out. Cailan and the Grey Wardens did just that, they succeeded in aggroing the enemy into charging them, and just kept them coming.

Goading an enemy into charging you doesn't require you to charge out into the open and exposing all of your flanks when you have two perfectly sturdy defensive walls on your sides that can keep those respective flanks safe, as well as ensuring you can't be attacked from behind.

Proper management of forces would've used archers effectively rather then firing one volley of arrows into a horde, which ends up not doing much good.

And, of course, Cailan wasted the Mabari troops by having them charge into the fray, when they're best used beside the soldiers.

Remember, Cailan is the one that frequently ignores strategy meetings and cites them as boring, and talks more about glory in battle then anything else.

From tower of Ishal where PC warden and Alistair lit the signal, they could observe the entire battlefield. Alistair did say at Flemeth's house that "Cailan had nearly defeated the Darkspawn", which means from where Alistair observed, the plan must have worked: most of the Darkspawn were already trapped in the valley along with Cailan and the Grey Wardens. All Loghain had to do was brush aside the Darkspawn still outside the valley, then complete the trap. As seen at the cutscene, certainly Loghain had the means, the much larger portion of Fereldan army was with him!

Except no. As soon as you defeat the Ogre, Alistair says "We've surely missed the signal! Light it quickly, and let's hope we're not too late!"

He doesn't even bother to check the field, and as you can see from the bridge the Darkspawn horde extends all the way into the ass end of the Korcari Wilds, and they're still coming through after the signal was lit.

Furthermore, the delay in the beacon's lighting does a few things: 1) Since Loghain was unaware of Darkspawn intervention, his fears of the Wardens were enforced due to a belief they were, by refusing to properly advise Cailan to stay out of the battle as it was too dangerous (he's heirless!), trying to goad him into throwing his life away. And then believing that Loghain would charge into the fray, thus causing Ferelden to lose both its king (ensuring a power vacuum) and its general.

These beliefs stem from the fear the Wardens had returned to working with Orlais, as they did up until the Third Blight.

Furthermore, Cailan's army was cracking under the pressure of the Darkspawn horde. They wouldn't have lasted much longer. And since the horde wasn't completely out there, what would've happened is a double envelopment had Loghain charged.

[TEWR]

The plan was to agro the darkspawn. To make them think : "Hoo, look, those puny humans are camped in the open, this is totally our chance, let's charge to melee with everything we've got , bedamned anything else!"
The displayed weakness and recklessness on Cailan's army's part was intentional.

It's suicidal. Not to mention Darkspawn don't think (unless the Architect is involved). They're mindless at the best of times, and blindly obey the Archdemon during a Blight. They have no concept of tactics, only Zerg Rush.

They legitimately do not care about tactics, their own or other peoples'.

Had Cailan's men more or less hunker down into more defensive formations, the Darkspawn would think: "It's not convenient to charge. Let's hang back a bit and use our siege weapons more."
The Darkspawn does have siege weapons, and they will not commit into all out charge if Cailan does not look vulnerable. The Darkspawn know time's on their side, they could just hang back stay right outside the gorge instead of charging in, and just focus on bombardment with their catapults.
How to trap them then?
No, Loghain's hammer-anvil battle plan demands that the Darkspawn be tempted to go in on all out charge. Cailan and the Grey Warden's bravado, WAS necessary.

Their siege weapons are Ogres and captured ballistae. They can't create decent siege weapons. And again, they don't think. There had been battles before you arrived, and the Darkspawn showed no signs of intelligence or fear as their enemies were curbstomping them.

They believe that a million is a statistic, that they have reserves, and that zerg rushing is the most effective means of taking over the world. Only an Archdemon, Awakened Darkspawn, and arguably ancient darkspawn are capable of intelligence.

[lonelyloner]

Heh, if we go by claim that Loghain's withdrawal was legitimate tactical decision because the Darkspawn's numbers totally took Loghain by surprise, then there goes your claim that Darkspawn have no tactics nor intelligence.

Are all of Loghain's scouts idiots? No way the Darkspawn could approach with such ridiculous numbers and be totally undetected before hand.
So this means 2 things:

Either the Darkspawn must be capable of ambush, and that means they are capable of tactical thinking. Good enough at this that truly their numbers took Loghain by surprise, thus he's forced to retreat. (But this means what you said above that Darkspawn have no grasp of tactics, is plain wrong).

Or... Loghain knows all along that the Darkspawn could not be stopped here.
Except he's hiding that info from Cailan and from the Grey Wardens, because he hopes to have chance to use the Darkspawn to wipe out the Grey Wardens.

---
In then end, conclusion is:

Had Loghain go with this battle plan, there's chance Ostagar could be won.
Loghain's supposedly a master general experienced with facing larger numbers of enemies. In fact this was why the Fereldan army and the Grey Wardens believed in this plan, because 'Fereldan's greatest hero' Loghain's the one who planned it. To them, "If Loghain says we can do it, we can do it."


Except as it turns out:
Ostagar could not be won, because Loghain never intended Ostagar to be won, not in the conventional sense.

To Loghain, what constitutes a victory in Ostagar is not victory over Darkspawn, but destruction of the Grey Wardens, thus alienating Cailan from Orlessians and Grey Wardens, + escaping with his own mighty force intact, and his plans set to carry him to seize effective ruling power.

So, the Fereldan defeat at Ostagar was Loghain's masterstroke, it's Loghain's own personal victory.

Except he could not salvage Cailan out of this debacle, thus could not use Cailan as his puppet, and thus he loses that Royal Lineage thing which in turn causes the other nobles to distrust his intentions and refuse to join him.

Cailan's blunderful death unwittingly put a monkey wrench in Loghain's machination.

Thus he's forced to 'let the Darkspawn expand unchecked' in desperate attempt to persuade the nobles to bow to him as the only one with great enough army to save them.

Then things really went awry and little by little, Loghain totally loses grip of the situation.

[Mike3207]

First, let's cover the things the army could have done to make up for the lack of numbers. The lack of mages being used in the battle really hurt the army effort. If they had used AOE or even other spells against the darkspawn-things could really have been different. In any case, the army should have taken the mages under their banner. They could have apologized to the Chantry later.

Next-bombs and traps. They had rogues available in the army camp and the quartermaster wa selling bombs, so why not use them in the battle. If you're going to draw the darkspawn into a charge, prepare tranps use bombs before they get to your front lines.

After that, better use of the archers. They could have loosed more than the one volley we see apart from the ones on the bridge. It was a real bad strategy to send dogs after the volley against armored and armed darkspawn. It would have been better for the troops to go out with the dogs.

Defensive fortifications-there should have been some. If you're going to draw the darkspawn into a charge, put up some fortifications and dig in. Basically, the army was just standing there.

Finally, the intelligence of the darkspawn. They are smart enough to build traps and use bombs/stealth. That assumes they have a certain level of tactics/reasoning ability. Enough to gather intelligence and make cmplicated plans? Maybe/maybe not. The possibility has to be at least considered though. Could the battle have been won? Maybe not. I definitely think there could have been a stalemate however.

[lonelyloner]

I can't argue the alternative tactics, whether yours, or Riverdaleswhiteflash's Or The Ethereal Writer Redux's above.

There's possibility too that what happened was: that the Darkspawn's continued advance forced the Fereldans into battle without giving them enough time to make more elaborate preparations like traps. Quite likely too that this Hammer Anvil battle plan was finalized only in very last minute, thus the half-baked nature, I don't really know.

Certainly too the Mages were underused (unused at all), altough it's very possible that they were ordered to go with Loghain instead.

But I'm in agreement that Cailan could have done it differently and better.

What I write here's more about the why, why things happened the way they did.



Cailan being camped under the walls and outside, and purposely positioning themselves into a corner, the idea was to incite the Darkspawn into charging into the gorge en masse, lured by possibility of quick n fun Zerg Rush kill.

And so his army waited as the Darkspawn closes in, to be sure that they really commit to the charge. Thus perhaps the reason to hold back the archer fire at first.
The Darkspawn front runs in, and seeing that there's no immediate counter like archer volleys yet, the Darkspawn ranks further back also get encouraged and run in as well, following the others at the front.

So, there's this whole mass of Darkspawn racing towards.
The archers then fired, at close range, purpose is to blunt the charge, making the Darkspawn front be slowed.

And the the Mabari's sent in, to halt that initial Darkspawn charge. Yeah, the Mabari got utterly annihilated, but oh well... At least they got the Darkspawn front halted, while the rear ranks still racing up.

It's like a car crash. If there's 2 cars moving at high speeds, say 100 mph, the second car maintaining only a little distance, let's say 1 metre to the rear of the first car. This position's ok if the second car can be certain that the first car would not suddenly slow or stop.
But what if the first car suddenly comes to a stop? Yeah, the second car will not stop in time either and will crash into the first car.

That's perhaps the idea with using the mabari to put a sudden halt into the Darkspawn initial charge.
Their front suddenly halted, while their rear, assuming that the front ranks will not stop, crashes into the front ranks. In this way Cailan's men hoped to both halt and disorganize the Darkspawn, causing confusion in the Darkspawn ranks.

And at that point, the time's right. Cailan orders his own counter charge.
One purpose is to exploit that temporary confusion in enemy ranks, as good time to cause them damage. And to raise own morale while lowering the enemy's: being attacked when they're the ones who should be attacking, has demoralizing effect.
The other purpose is to give more space to Cailan's men. Before this they're totally cornered. But with this charge, they secure about a stone throw's worth of ground to their front, to give them a bit of room to for their exhausted troops to withdraw a bit and rest a while, or to give them time to fall back behind their barricades if they get overpowered and has to be pushed back.

See? The whole idea of that battle plan's not to last indefinitely, but simply to last about 1 hour, perhaps 2, and in that brief period of time, draw the enemy in, grapple with the enemy, and cause as much damage as they can for that brief period of time, and hold on until Loghain's attack, bringing with him the bulk of Fereldan force, on the Darkspawn rear, finally rescue them and win the day.

The plan's not too bad.
Except that last part: Loghain never rescued them.



There's a few things I could add:
Cailan's tactics here were too reckless?
Besides he seemed over confident, perhaps arrogant and foolish in the belief of his own prowess and the Grey Wardens?
Perhaps.
But this is true too: Cailan's popular with his troops. His army truly believed in him, that means there's true connection, true bond between him and his army. His overconfidence was not critisized by his own troops, that means their morale was high. Cailan's high spirits is the army's high spirits.

And why such high morale? Don't they know that despite their victories, the Darkspawn numbers continued to grow?
I would say that's because in their previous 3 battles, the Fereldans won, perhaps soundly and easily, and succeeded in utterly destroying their opposition and with minimal or negligible losses.
Put yourself in that picture, wouldn't you feel that confidence too?


Cailan is a capable military commander, a charismatic leader, I have little doubt about that.
Of course he's NOT the best, he's capable and good enough, that's it.

But as a King, he fails. Lacking political 'spider sense', he fails to foresee Loghain's betrayal.
A king's game is more about intriques and political back stabbings, and less about military command.
Cailan fails at this.
Even in good times, he's more or less simply Anora's puppet.
In bad times? He's utterly no match for Loghain, who in ideal scenario, would make Cailan his own puppet too.
Sure Anora maybe more clever, but Loghain's the one with a big invincible army.


And, going back to the original question: Could Ostagar have been won?

Yes, IF Loghain wanted to win it.
We're talking about Loghain here, perhaps the bravest most gifted tactician warrior commander general with a lifetime of experience fighting superior foes.
Plus, he had command of a great army, well armed well disciplined, responsive to his orders and was absolutely loyal to him.
Plus, being originally a commoner himself, and now a rags-to-riches story, he's popular with the Fereldan common people, he won't find it difficult to recruit more troops.
Last but not least: he has the support of Fereldan throne. His daughter's the Queen. Through history of service for Fereldan's fight for independence, and through support of Royalty via Cailan, Loghain's the top dog.
Loghain is Bioware's own Napoleon Bonaparte, IMHO.

Yes, if Loghain truly wanted to win Ostagar, as in... defeating the Darkspawn, he could have.

Could the Blight have been stopped at Ostagar? Can't tell, depends on whether the Archdemon appears, and whether there's a Grey Warden there to kill it.

But if it's simply battles, I'm sure Loghain could win Ostagar, and perhaps several more major battles, before in the end he would find that the Darkspawn could replenish losses faster than Loghain could and in the end Loghain will be overwhelmed.

So, why didn't Loghain decide to win at Ostagar? Why?

Because to Loghain, the real enemy is Orlais.
And the biggest problem is not Darkspawn invasion, it's King Cailan's communication with Orlessians.

Winning Ostagar's possible, but not without taking some heavy damage.
Loghain fears most of all that that will be used as excuse by Orlessian Grey Wardens, to come over to Ferelden and then to never leave, plus Orlessian troops joining in, EG: Orlessian Occupation again.

No, Loghain needs break up Cailan's relations with Orlais, and secure Cailan's ears for himself only.
Loghain needs an example to show the Orlessian Grey Wardens that they would not be welcome in Ferelden and that it's best that they stay away.
That example would be best served by showing utter disregard for Grey Warden lives and sacrificing them all in battles.

Once that example's shown, king Cailan's assurances to the Orlessian throne and the Grey Wardens that they are welcome to party in Ferelden, will have lost all merit.
Cailan would then have little choice but go with his only option: to continue having Loghain as his 'shadow behind the throne'. = No interference from outside = Ferelden Continued Independence = WIN.

btw, no way Alistair's claim to throne could have weight, had Cailan lived.

Modifié par lonelyloner, 27 novembre 2013 - 02:39 .

[TEWR]

Heh, if we go by claim that Loghain's withdrawal was legitimate tactical decision because the Darkspawn's numbers totally took Loghain by surprise, then there goes your claim that Darkspawn have no tactics nor intelligence.

Not really. It just goes to be another Zerg Rush. Throw enough enemies at a foe, you'll eventually take him down. Considering Darkspawn don't require food, a single berserking Hurlock is enough to handle multiple opponents, and the sheer number of their forces (Emissaries, Ogres, ghouls, blighted animals, etc.) then this really isn't a demonstration of tactics.

It's just brute force. Plus, I said the Darkspawn can't think up tactics on their own. I said the Archdemon (or the Architect/Disciples) are able to give them orders which they will follow to the letter.

The tactician for the Darkspawn is not the darkspawn themselves, but rather the Archdemon.

Certainly too the Mages were underused (unused at all), altough it's very possible that they were ordered to go with Loghain instead.

One was stationed in the Tower of Ishal, while Wynne was fighting in the field. It's logical to assume that Uldred was with Loghain, given that after the battle the two made a deal that if the Mages joined Loghain to combat the Darkspawn, he'd work on getting them (more) freedom from the Chantry.

You also find out that there were wounded at Ostagar after the battle, being tended to by Wynne (from Wynne herself). They were probably in hiding, given that the map shows us the vicinity is very much swallowed up by the Darkspawn presence.

Are all of Loghain's scouts idiots? No way the Darkspawn could approach with such ridiculous numbers and be totally undetected before hand.
So this means 2 things:

Either the Darkspawn must be capable of ambush, and that means they are capable of tactical thinking. Good enough at this that truly their numbers took Loghain by surprise, thus he's forced to retreat. (But this means what you said above that Darkspawn have no grasp of tactics, is plain wrong).

Or... Loghain knows all along that the Darkspawn could not be stopped here.
Except he's hiding that info from Cailan and from the Grey Wardens, because he hopes to have chance to use the Darkspawn to wipe out the Grey Wardens.

All of the scouts were killed. Again, the thing that gives the Darkspawn a semblance of intelligence is the Archdemon/Architect/Disciples (the former in the main game, latter in Awakening and the Calling novel).

Had Loghain go with this battle plan, there's chance Ostagar could be won.
Loghain's supposedly a master general experienced with facing larger numbers of enemies. In fact this was why the Fereldan army and the Grey Wardens believed in this plan, because 'Fereldan's greatest hero' Loghain's the one who planned it. To them, "If Loghain says we can do it, we can do it."

Let's assume that it could be won, ignoring all of the evidence to the contrary. What would result is a pyrrhic victory where the next battle would be their undoing. The Cousland forces were pretty much disposed of (Teyrn Cousland was going to go down with the rest of the army, but Howe stepped in and removed them by treason) and Howe sent his Amaranthine forces throughout the Coastlands to take over the rest of the area, including Denerim.

Redcliffe's forces were a week away, but they would not have been enough to hold the fortress.

Pyrrhic victories are not worth celebrating or going after. It's just a glorified loss.

Except as it turns out:
Ostagar could not be won, because Loghain never intended Ostagar to be won, not in the conventional sense.

To Loghain, what constitutes a victory in Ostagar is not victory over Darkspawn, but destruction of the Grey Wardens, thus alienating Cailan from Orlessians and Grey Wardens, + escaping with his own mighty force intact, and his plans set to carry him to seize effective ruling power.

So, the Fereldan defeat at Ostagar was Loghain's masterstroke, it's Loghain's own personal victory.

Except he could not salvage Cailan out of this debacle, thus could not use Cailan as his puppet, and thus he loses that Royal Lineage thing which in turn causes the other nobles to distrust his intentions and refuse to join him.

Cailan's blunderful death unwittingly put a monkey wrench in Loghain's machination.

Thus he's forced to 'let the Darkspawn expand unchecked' in desperate attempt to persuade the nobles to bow to him as the only one with great enough army to save them.

Then things really went awry and little by little, Loghain totally loses grip of the situation.

There is absolutely ZERO evidence pointing to Loghain planning to abandon the Grey Wardens. He doesn't think they're necessary, but he does think they're impressive. While he distrusts them, distrust does not mean a plan for betrayal.

What you're doing is imposing a headcanon into an argument predicated on the use of facts.

[lonelyloner]

The Ethereal Writer Redux wrote...

There is absolutely ZERO evidence pointing to Loghain planning to abandon the Grey Wardens. He doesn't think they're necessary, but he does think they're impressive. While he distrusts them, distrust does not mean a plan for betrayal.

What you're doing is imposing a headcanon into an argument predicated on the use of facts.

You're right. I have no evidence.
There's lots of gaps I just fill with my own guess work, based on what I know of Loghain so far:

Extreme Fereldan nationalist.
Anti Orlessian.
Suspects Grey Wardens.
Is very unhappy that Cailan is friendly with Grey Wardens and with Orlessians.
Maybe a good man who does not lust for power for his own pleasure, but...
Convinced that he alone can protect Ferelden, thus his need to hold onto power.

In Loghain's ideal world, King Cailan and Queen Anora would always stick together and have children of their own as heirs thus secure in their rule together, and that Ferelden should remain anti Orlessian always. Fereldan nobles should not marry any Orlessian women, and Cailan should not have any friendly relations with Empress Celene of Orlais.

But that's not happening. Cailan and Anora never have children, no royal heir to secure this kingdom.
So, Queen Anora's position is also shaky, since if an heir is expected and she could not produce any.

In fact King Cailan already entered relations with Empress Celene of Orlais, planning to divorce Anora.
The marriage between Cailan and Celene would be a major change, if they have children then those children would be heir to both Orlais and Ferelden, and could effectively unite the two separate kingdom into one. That's a mighty ambition to pursue...

Except Loghain would not be happy that his daughter Anora would be set aside for this joining to happen. Besides Loghain's own rise and hold to power's build on one thing: his opposition to Orlessians. It's extremely likely that if Cailan does ally with Orlais, Loghain would see his own power and influence in Ferelden rapidly diminish. And in Loghain's mind, if he's not there (and in power) to protect Ferelden, that means Orlessian occupation, again.
(not to mention that status of his own Teyrnirship would be rapidly diminished, along with hopes of keeping power in Ferelden secure within Loghain's own family)

The problem here's Cailan, specifically, his relationship with Orlesians.
Loghain need a way to sever that.
Hence staging Ostagar as a murder ground for the Grey Wardens, to create Orlessian and Grey Warden distrust of Cailan and Ferelden, and hopefuly they'll cut off ties with Cailan.
So Cailan then could go back to relying on Loghain, and would stay married to Anora, and thus secure Loghain clan's hold in Fereldan power, and thus keeping Ferelden safe and independent from Orlessians.

(Some unforeseen mistakes were made though, Cailan being a most difficult factor to predict, ended up stuck in that mouse trap. Loghain's increasingly erratic moves from then on is him trying to improvise.)

Yeah, no evidence that this is what really happened.
But Loghain has the motive, the vested interest, and he has the means.

Perhaps it's just the way I think things.
In RL too I sometimes see people BS ing their way to their goal.
Sometimes they're clever, I could not find evidence of their misdeeds.
But I just follow the money, and think "Who profits?"
The guy who profits from a certain situation, is very very likely to me the guy who want that situation to happen eg: the guy who did it.

Sure, no evidence to press charges.
But I think I know against whom I "should send my assassins." j/k.

yeah, no evidence. I guess no more can be said.

[Mike3207]

Keep in mind Morrigan says that the darkspawn broke through deep in the forest, and that there were enough darkspawn to cover from there to Ostagar. Also, there were enough darkspawn to spare to take over the Tower of Ishal.

They had tactical surprise. They surprised the Fereldan forces at both the Tower and Ostagar. It's really hard to overcome that advantage in battle, and I think the best outcome that could have been realized was a strategic withdrawal.

Throw out all of Loghain's opinions. He's the Fereldan Commander on the scene. He was likely faced with a choice to either sacrifice the army in a attempt to rescue Cailan and that portion of the army, or make a strategic withdrawal and save the remainder of the army. If you talk to Loghain after recruiting him, he makes it clear it really was a bad choice.

[Riverdaleswhiteflash]

@ lonely

Well, your basic assessment of the political problems Loghain is facing is accurate, though its worth mentioning the extent to which being terrified of Orlesian chevaliers is justified. They're incredibly good skillwise, many are the opposite of that morally (I refuse to believe that covers all of them, due to basic human nature and the fact that they apparently see themselves as holy warriors to a large degree) and they all serve an empire with known expansionist tendencies. And he's not wrong about Celene wanting Ferelden back; she's just more interested in taking it without blood. (Edit: You also missed that at this point, Loghain isn't aware that Cailan is plotting to help her with that. Edit2: And as has been previously stated, even after being sentenced to the Joining in lieu of death, and admitting he's done things to deserve either, Loghain still doesn't admit to any motive resembling this for Ostagar.)

As for what that would motivate in a general as good as Loghain is meant to be (TEWR has said, with justification, that Bioware dropped the ball representing this) to do, I'd argue "get this done yesterday" would be the likely answer. Wasting time with a duplicitous stunt like you believe Ostagar to be is just a poor move, even if I can see Loghain wanting Duncan dead. (Duncan being involved in foiling a past Orlesian plot, and Loghain knowing about the plot but not which side Duncan took.) Loghain acknowledges the darkspawn threat; it's not the Orlesians he tries (and fails) to rally the Landsmeet to drive out of Ferelden.

Modifié par Riverdaleswhiteflash, 28 novembre 2013 - 07:01 .

[lonelyloner]

@Riverdale


Ah yes, Loghain at that time was not aware just how deeply Cailan and Celene were planning to go with their alliance.
But in one of her convos, Anora tells me that Cailan dreams of uniting all nations of Thedas against the Blight.

In order to convince the whole of Thedas to join this quest, naturally Cailan must have command of a powerful kingdom, if not the most powerful of all in Thedas, and he must build up his reputation as leader and warrior.

This explain his interest in uniting Ferelden and Orlais, especially since Cailan himself's heirless currently, and so is Celene. Although this plot was not revealed at that time, I think speculations should already be there. And both Anora and Loghain would feel very uncomfortable hearing about them.

This also explains Cailan's eagerness to build for himself reputation as a warrior king, and he hopes to gain Grey Wardens as his strength in this endeavor. I wonder too if Duncan or other Grey Wardens had hand in encouraging this, since they could see Cailan's eager support of them as facility for them to operate in Ferelden, thus they let this be, if not actively encouraged it.


--

Now about "if that's what Loghain wanted done, why wait until Ostagar? Why not get it done earlier?"

It's possible that the situation was developing fast and Loghain's counter scheme was barely keeping up to time table.
Perhaps only that just recently Cailan become a lot more accomodating to the Orlessians and Grey Wardens, the emerging troubles with the Darkspawn made Cailan be increasingly more vocal in his opinion that Ferelden should invite Orlessians and more of the Grey Wardens. Loghain perhaps had been aware of this problem for sometime, but hadn't anticipated it was that bad and so fast. Loghain would feel like he's racing against time, to prevent Orlessians from coming over.

Another thing that might have happened too is that Ostagar was Cailan's call.
Cailan, hoping to convince Loghain that Grey Wardens (and perhaps Orlessians) are good friends to have, invited Loghain and Grey Wardens to join him in Ostagar to battle the Darkspawn.
But this invite only roused Loghain's suspicion more, so probably even before arriving in Ostagar he's already starting to scheme "just in case".

And so Ostagar become a place of weird relations,
Loghain in attempting to persuade Cailan that the Grey Wardens are not needed, perhaps contributed some of his best tactics.
While the Grey Wardens, wary about Loghain's suspicion but encouraged by Cailan that they just have to work harder to gain Loghain's trust, fights especially well.
Thus their earlier 3 success battles. Cailan perhaps were totally oblivious to this, since he's elated by the victories. Usually sharing victories bring people together, right?

This is also perhaps why the Grey Wardens were okay about being put into this most dangerous position: because they want to get on Loghain's good side, and because King Cailan personally assured them, even going so far as to join them in this dangerous position. "Teyrn Loghain would never abandon Cailan. Cailan is with us, Teyrn Loghain would never abandon us." The Grey Wardens think, so they play their part in Ostagar in good faith.

Loghain on the other hand, I guess in the end he gives up trying to convince Cailan about not needing Orlessians and Grey Wardens. At that point, to Loghain, Cailan now becomes traitor to Ferelden.



--


"Loghain acknowledges the darkspawn threat; it's not the Orlesians he tries (and fails) to rally the Landsmeet to drive out of Ferelden."

To Loghain, the purpose of the Landsmeet is one: to seize power.
Thus to discredit and defeat his rivals politically, to oust them from being in competing position, and to bring everyone under his control, so that he could finally protect Ferelden ... and... heh... secure Loghain clan's hold in Ferelden power.

As it turns out the Landsmeet got reduced to a simple duel between Loghain and the PC faction's champion.
Had Loghain win this duel, the story changes thus: Loghain would be the leader of this alliance, Eamon and the Grey Warden led coalition army would have to submit to his command. And then this united army would fight the Darkspawn.
-
Loghain could perhaps appreciate that allowing Grey Wardens to live at this time would mean Ferelden could benefit from the armies the Grey Warden had gathered ( the Dwarves, Dalish, and Circle mages are all obligated to the PC Grey Warden instead of to Loghain ).
The Riordan appears and tells Loghain about Archdemon-Grey Warden thing. Loghain could initially disbelieve this, but could soon change his mind once he sees the Archdemon in person.
Alistair, being a threat to Anora-Loghain's rule simply by existing, could well be executed anyway, unless PC grey warden intervene. ( Or he could be assassinated later on too )
One thing's clear though: Anora and Loghain would rule Ferelden independent of any foreign power and establish a new line of MacTir royalty.

Now, now, even if there's opinion that "Loghain has no desire to rule", you know the one who does: Anora.
Anora's Queen, and for her there's no other place for her, she has to rule and to be queen, power to Anora is like water to fish (even if some say she's a good fish). Can't blame that, that's just the way she is.

And just as Loghain's power's build on his opposition to Orlais (thus his need to block out Orlesians from Ferelden politics),
Anora's reign's build on 2: her marriage to King Cailan, and her father's reputation as Hero.
With Cailan's death, she then has to protect the other foundation she has left: Loghain's reputation as hero. (Anora even build that monument thing for Loghain even if he got criminalized at landsmeet)

I think at least in beginning, it makes sense if Anora and Loghain were cooperating in this coup, only a bit later when she sees Loghain losing it, Anora begin entertaining possibility of using PC Warden's faction so that even if Loghain goes down, Anora's rule as Queen could still be salvaged: by gaining another foundation: support from a potential landsmeet winner (eg PC Warden).

[Riverdaleswhiteflash]

A: That's not the head writer's interpretation of this.
B: You haven't answered the point where Loghain doesn't admit to any chicanery at Ostagar even after being sentenced for this chicanery (among other things of course) and admitting everything else he did was wrong.
C: Whether or not there were rumors of Cailan's plans, the tone Loghain takes upon seeing the proof makes clear he didn't really believe them.
D: Anora didn't build that monument to secure her own power: in fact it's made quite clear that if Loghain is executed to earn it she's the only one who cares it exists. And the cutscenes make it quite clear she didn't approve of the decisions you think she cooperated in. There is a degree of cynicism to her character, but you're nonetheless massively oversimplifying her.
E: I was referring to the Landsmeet Loghain called after Ostagar, when he attempted to rally Ferelden against the darkspawn, not Orlais. Gaining power wasn't what he was after there.
F: Feel free to repeat any points I didn't answer. I'm pretty sure I've missed some, with the length of that post.

Modifié par Riverdaleswhiteflash, 29 novembre 2013 - 03:37 .

[Rotward]

We don't know, we don't have nearly enough information. It could have been won if they had waited for orlesian (grey warden) or redcliff reinforcements, but their pride got in the way.