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[Rinshikai10]

Lambert was probably chosen because he would less likely to side with the Mages, given his experiences in Tevinter.

Gaspard sounds like a knight who believes the expansion and glory of the Empire is all that matters. (Pure Speculation)

[dragonflight288]

Angrywolves wrote...

If the Archdemon could strategize, then one would think Loghain wouldn't have been able to pull out of Ostagar so easily .
I remember LOTR and the blasted Palantirs (spelling ).
Sauron was able to influence anyone who had one, if I recall correctly .
shrugs.
Gaider is lead writer, so whether Leliana was in Lothering as a chantry spy, or not should come out in DAI as part of Laidlaw's efforts to clean up loose ends.

Loghain wasn't even in the battle. He and his troops were off to the side, waiting for a signal to flank the darkspawn lines. Down in the valley, however, the Wardens and Cailan's men got surrounded on all sides, there was  tunnel leading into the tower of Ishal so that had been taken, and that tunnel in Return to Ostagar led behind the front lines that were being held, completely cutting them off from reinforcements.

The darkspawn strategy was done brilliantly.

[Urazz]

dragonflight288 wrote...

Angrywolves wrote...

If the Archdemon could strategize, then one would think Loghain wouldn't have been able to pull out of Ostagar so easily .
I remember LOTR and the blasted Palantirs (spelling ).
Sauron was able to influence anyone who had one, if I recall correctly .
shrugs.
Gaider is lead writer, so whether Leliana was in Lothering as a chantry spy, or not should come out in DAI as part of Laidlaw's efforts to clean up loose ends.

Loghain wasn't even in the battle. He and his troops were off to the side, waiting for a signal to flank the darkspawn lines. Down in the valley, however, the Wardens and Cailan's men got surrounded on all sides, there was  tunnel leading into the tower of Ishal so that had been taken, and that tunnel in Return to Ostagar led behind the front lines that were being held, completely cutting them off from reinforcements.

The darkspawn strategy was done brilliantly.

I don't think the darkspawn strategy would've worked so brilliantly if Loghain had did that flanking maneuver like he was supposed to.  If he had, I think the Darkspawn would've been defeated but there would've been a lot more deaths on the King's side of things due to the Darkspawn strategy.

Modifié par Urazz, 13 novembre 2013 - 12:35 .

[dragonflight288]

Urazz wrote...

dragonflight288 wrote...

Angrywolves wrote...

If the Archdemon could strategize, then one would think Loghain wouldn't have been able to pull out of Ostagar so easily .
I remember LOTR and the blasted Palantirs (spelling ).
Sauron was able to influence anyone who had one, if I recall correctly .
shrugs.
Gaider is lead writer, so whether Leliana was in Lothering as a chantry spy, or not should come out in DAI as part of Laidlaw's efforts to clean up loose ends.

Loghain wasn't even in the battle. He and his troops were off to the side, waiting for a signal to flank the darkspawn lines. Down in the valley, however, the Wardens and Cailan's men got surrounded on all sides, there was  tunnel leading into the tower of Ishal so that had been taken, and that tunnel in Return to Ostagar led behind the front lines that were being held, completely cutting them off from reinforcements.

The darkspawn strategy was done brilliantly.

I don't think the darkspawn strategy would've worked so brilliantly if Loghain had did that flanking maneuver like he was supposed to.  If he had, I think the Darkspawn would've been defeated but there would've been a lot more deaths on the King's side of things due to the Darkspawn strategy.

Look that scene over again after Loghain retreats. it gives a brief overviewing look of the battlefield right before we see Duncan and Cailan fighting. The darkspawn are stillpouring out of the Wilds. They had the king's men fully surrounded and they weren't fully committed to the battle yet. Any flanking maneouver, based on the numbers I was seeing, would be especially risky, and quite likely doomed to fail unless some miracle happened.

Crossing the bridge but before arriving at the tower, I looked down into the valley and Cailan had led his men into a charge outside of their defensive line and got themselves surrounded on three sides, and they're surrounded on all four by the time the signal lights up.

Had Loghain made the charge, there is no guarantee that Cailan would've been saved, and an exceedingly high chance that most of Ferelden's army would've been destroyed in a single battle, even had they won, their ability to fight would've been completely neutralized.

[Angrywolves]

The truth is the darkspawn should have been able to destroy both human armies.
But then there wouldn't have been a dragon age.
Gaider has those Green Ronin rpg people helping him with his lore, but nobody helping with his stories military strategies .
That's not a criticism , I'm satisfied for the most part with DAO. It's just not realistic in certain aspects.

[Rinshikai10]

Are there any comparisons that can be used from Cailan or Loghain at Ostagar, that have similarities to Justinia in Asunder?

Such as leadership style or character?

Or is it still too easy for that type of comparison?

Any thoughts?

[Sir JK]

I think it's too early... We've really only seen Justinia's direct leadership in action once and seen it indirectly a few times. But from what we've seen there's not much linking them. We know she was at the forefront of rumours within the Chantry regarding an exalted march or some other intervention at Kirkwall, but at the same time sending an agent to investigate. And later that she shut down the college of magi. Suggesting she takes very overt and direct action to control situations. But that she uses her agents to investigate a reversal of tranquility, controlling what happened to the very same investigation and then in an attempt to free certain mages. All that's indirect though. The only case we're we've seen her, in person, act as a leader was at the masquerade where she made a speach in favour of leniency towards mages. Preparatory and offering vague improvement, without any commitment.
This suggests to me that Justinia V likes to present finished solutions to problems, but that she tries to quickly shut down things out of her control. That she prefert to influence covertly, rather than overtly.

Cailan was headstrong and once he had made up his mind there was no deterring him. Everything about him was overt. When Duncan suggested waiting for Eamon he dismissed Duncan by questioning if it was a Blight and when Loghain questioned how the force was dispositioned he threatened to involve the Orlesians. My interpretation would be that it was less because he believed this to be prudent as much as to shut the pair of them up. Cailan does not strike me as someone who takes no for an answer. If there's a problem then he's riding out to solve it with a stroke of his pen/sword. There, solved!
Which also explains his "method" of dealing with having no child. Why, marry the empress of Orlais of course. Glorious! What could go wrong?

This analysis is very flawed since we've seen considerably more of Cailan than Justinia. But the little I've seen is that Justinia is the Spider in the Web, where as Cailan is Knight in Shining Armour.

Both, however, took on problems too big for them.

[Rinshikai10]

@ Sir JK

Good points on both of them. I agree with you that they both took on problems too big to handle.

I'm may be reading your post wrong but one similarity I'm getting from you is they both stick to their decisions (Justinia trying to control, and Calian looking for glory.) even when others advise them to rethink. However, I believe that Justinia will change a plan if the situation becomes dire for her. (possibly losing support from Mages)

Your description of Jusitnia quickly shutting down things she can't control is quite accurate in my view. This could be the reason why she disbanded the Collage and all but ignores Fiona.

[Sir JK]

I agree, Justinia will change a plan she's not satisfied with. Which is probably why she's so active in her use of various agents. She's on a constant look-out for new information in order to remain updated on a situation. Her goals may not change, but her plans are very malleable.

Of course, not everyone is all too happy waiting for her to move her boardpices where she wants them.

[Rinshikai10]

Sir JK wrote...

I agree, Justinia will change a plan she's not satisfied with. Which is probably why she's so active in her use of various agents. She's on a constant look-out for new information in order to remain updated on a situation. Her goals may not change, but her plans are very malleable.

Of course, not everyone is all too happy waiting for her to move her boardpices where she wants them.

I don't fully agree with this. This is just opinion after reading Asunder, but I believe the her goal changed after the Enchanters were imprisoned by Lambert. The original goal was to get the Mages on her side to change the Circle, yet near the end of the book it seems like shes just trying to keep them loyal. Shes a manipulator, but those types of skills are only one piece of good leadership.

I've said in the past that I'm a fan of Sun Tzu's Art of War, and when ever I look at a leader, RL or fictional, I ask myself these three to five questions.

1) Does the leader know themselves and the enemies well?

2) Can they subdue their enemies without fighting?

3) Do they attack the weak points of their enemies while avoiding there strong points?

4) Do they use direct moves to engage and indirect moves to win?

5) Do they understand momentum and timing are key to any plan?

While Justinia is more experienced then someone like Cailen, I don't believe that she understands some of these key points.

While she seems to understand politics to a point, she does not in my opinion understand war which would be important for any leader in Thedas.

[Sir JK]

Hmm... I don't think her goal changed at all. Just that she had to swiftly change the foundations of her plan. I get the impression that the whole matter of researching into tranquility was always a gamble to win the hearts and minds of mages. With that in place, negotiating a new circle would have been a much simpler affair.

Which of those five points do you think she does not understand? Because I get the impression that while she did, things were rather moving too fast for her to control. Lambert inserted himself much too soon and took control over the templars from under her, Eron would not have thrown nearly as many wrenches into her gears as he did. And then it was simply moving from one crisis to another. It's difficult to control a situation if you're one step behind, when you don't hold the initiative.

[dragonflight288]

Sir JK wrote...

Hmm... I don't think her goal changed at all. Just that she had to swiftly change the foundations of her plan. I get the impression that the whole matter of researching into tranquility was always a gamble to win the hearts and minds of mages. With that in place, negotiating a new circle would have been a much simpler affair.

Which of those five points do you think she does not understand? Because I get the impression that while she did, things were rather moving too fast for her to control. Lambert inserted himself much too soon and took control over the templars from under her, Eron would not have thrown nearly as many wrenches into her gears as he did. And then it was simply moving from one crisis to another. It's difficult to control a situation if you're one step behind, when you don't hold the initiative.

That could be an accurate depiction of her not understanding her enemy, or in this case, her ally. I don't know if she promoted Lambert originally or if Divine Beatrix did, since I can't remember if that's stated in the book, but so long as Lambert had taken direct control of the Templars, I don't think she truly understood how far he would be willing to go based entirely on his fear and paranoia of mages because of his experiences in Tevinter, nor how callously he'd dismiss her authority when she started acting in a manner he didn't agree with.

[Sir JK]

It's never mentioned who promoted Lambert, but given that Beatrix reigned as Divine for almost 50 years (jikes!) my guess would that she did. Which also would explain why Lambert has so much difficulty working with Justinia, he's used to having a complete free reign (implying he was appointed late in Beatrix's reign).

I think you're right in that she probably underestimated Lambert, but not completely. She allowed the conclave because Wynne essentially blackmailed her and Lambert; all the towers already knew. That was stalling for time, not underestimating him. And even so, she knew what buttons to press to make him calm down.

What she did underestimate completely however, was the Libertarians. Adrian and Fiona in particular. In fact, she did not even seem to consider them adversaries at all. Lambert she was actively working against, but she seemed to be completely and utterly taken by surprise by the mages. No fail saves at all to prevent what happened next.

[Xilizhra]

What she did underestimate completely however, was the Libertarians. Adrian and Fiona in particular. In fact, she did not even seem to consider them adversaries at all. Lambert she was actively working against, but she seemed to be completely and utterly taken by surprise by the mages. No fail saves at all to prevent what happened next.

Well, they never really acted as direct adversaries to her.

[Rinshikai10]

Sir JK wrote...

Hmm... I don't think her goal changed at all. Just that she had to swiftly change the foundations of her plan. I get the impression that the whole matter of researching into tranquility was always a gamble to win the hearts and minds of mages. With that in place, negotiating a new circle would have been a much simpler affair.

Which of those five points do you think she does not understand? Because I get the impression that while she did, things were rather moving too fast for her to control. Lambert inserted himself much too soon and took control over the templars from under her, Eron would not have thrown nearly as many wrenches into her gears as he did. And then it was simply moving from one crisis to another. It's difficult to control a situation if you're one step behind, when you don't hold the initiative.

I would say the ones she doesn't understand are

1) She doesn't appear to understand who her friends and foes are. Which makes this one of the biggest blunders that I have seen her do in Asunder. You made a good point about Fiona, it seems that Justinia did not even she Fiona as an adviser, even though that is technically her job.


3) She doesn't appear to know her oppositions strengths and weaknesses, due to her not really knowing who her enemies are.

5) Momentum and timing are very important when executing a plan. Justinia in my view waited too long for her original plan to bare fruit, leaving the problems of the M/T conflict to fester. When the results showed promise, the momentum (Mages/Templars views on her) was already against her.

Modifié par Rinshikai10, 16 novembre 2013 - 01:00 .

[Sir JK]

Xilizhra wrote...

Well, they never really acted as direct adversaries to her.

I don't know about that. One tried to kill her, one passionately attcked the practise of the Rite of Tranquility before her and Lambert and one tried to vote to secede... twice.

Rinshikai10 wrote...

I would say the ones she doesn't understand are

1) She doesn't appear to understand who her friends and foes are. Which makes this one of the biggest blunders that I have seen her do in Asunder. You made a good point about Fiona, it seems that Justinia did not even she Fiona as an adviser, even though that is technically her job.

3) She doesn't appear to know her oppositions strengths and weaknesses, due to her not really knowing who her enemies are.

5) Momentum and timing are very important when executing a plan. Justinia in my view waited too long for her original plan to bare fruit, leaving the problems of the M/T conflict to fester. When the results showed promise, the momentum (Mages/Templars views on her) was already against her.

Hmm... I'm not sure. Given what Fiona says about the Divine and the latters reluctance to assemble the conclave I'm getting the distinct impression that both of them thinks they cannot work with one another. So it's not like she fails to see she has an ally in Fiona, because it seems like they're really not. I'm fairly certain she also lost one of her most valuable allies (Knight Commander Eron, head of the templar order) in the beginning of Asunder as well.
Wynne turned out to be something of a loose cannon for Justinia though. I wonder if it was she or Leliana that recruited her.

You'll have to elaborate on 3) I feel. I'm not seeing it.

As for momentum... I'm not sure. She ascends in 9:34. In 9:37 we see Leliana being dispatched to Kirkwall to figure out if it's an outside force acting upon the mages. In 9:39 she shuts down the conclave in the College of Magi following a vote to secede. I'm getting the impression this is when Pharamond is dispatched as well. It's also the year Rhys' research is being shut down (not her decision, but Eron's)

In 9:40 Leliana and Cassandra evaluates the Kirkwall disaster. The same year Asunder takes place. The conclave is held 3 weeks after Wynne's expedition returns. The mages secede as winter sets in and the year draws to a close. The templars secede shortly after that.

Basically... just about everything we see of her happens in less than a year. She loses Knight-Commander Eron, which I am fairly certain was an ally, to have him replaced by Lambert, who is not. Pharamond's research did not yield the results she desired and ís outed much too soon. She's forced to host a conclave she did not want due to the mages already being made aware. And then she acts quickly by dispatching Leliana... but I cannot determine why. It's never mentioned.

It seems to me to be to be the complete opposite. She's very much aware of the importance of momentum and timing. She just has extremely limited time to work in. 6 years is not a lot of time to change a figurehead position into one of power. 1 year is not a lot of time to try to save what remains of the circles.

[Xilizhra]

I don't know about that. One tried to kill her, one passionately attcked the practise of the Rite of Tranquility before her and Lambert and one tried to vote to secede... twice.

I think the first one was a known nutcase who was released by the templars in a covert assassination attempt. The second one isn't a personal attack, and the third one never became a war with the Chantry.

[Sir JK]

Xilizhra wrote...
I think the first one was a known nutcase who was released by the templars in a covert assassination attempt. The second one isn't a personal attack, and the third one never became a war with the Chantry.

Adrian I grant you, her outburst was in no way an indication for what she later did. She was the de facto leader of White Spire's libertarians though. One would've thought Justinia and Lambert ought to have memorized that.

Jeannot was not a known nutcase though, Edmonde did not like him but other than that he was outwardly a normal senior enchanter of the Libertarian fraternity. Rhys wasn't close to him, but he wouldn't have guessed it either. As for being released by templars: I agree that the theory makes sense, but we got nothing but Wynne's speculation to support it. We never see anything in the way of admission or proof of that theory however.

As for Fiona. Her attempt to make the conclave vote for secession should have made her a political adversary. That Justinia shut it the conclave down in response should be ample proof that it was not a motion she approved of. Maybe it was too soon for her, or maybe she did not want the circles to secede at all. Add that Fiona does not seem to hold Justinia in very high regard, I dare say that Justinia should've treated her as an opponent.
Then again... Wynne might've been Justinia's ally among the mages.

[Rinshikai10]

@ Sir JK

It was my understanding that Jusintia is the one that ordered Wynne to send the message to all Circles. As well as starting her Tranquil research as early as 9:34 (I have to reread Asunder to be sure) these bit of info come from Wynne so I'm not sure if this is a ploy to gain Rhys's trust or not.

I will give you an example for #3

Lets say that Justinia believes that because Wynne has had success in delaying a possible separation vote twice, the same will happen again. Thus Wynne is the weak point for the Circle that she can exploit until the ROT research is done. (Wynne become the linchpin for success while Fiona becomes the strong point to avoid. Because she is leader the vote to separate.)

However, because she has not been in communication with Fiona and the First Enchanters. She is unaware that they are starting to believe that the promises Wynne made in the last vote will not happen, because the Templar are following Lamberts view of the situation, rather then the Divine.

You yourself say she seems surprised when the Mages don't go along with her plan.

#3 is connected to #1 in the sense that if #1 is not understood then #3 will also not be understood. (Sorry if this is confusing)

[Sir JK]

Rinshikai10 wrote...

@ Sir JK

It was my understanding that Jusintia is the one that ordered Wynne to send the message to all Circles. As well as starting her Tranquil research as early as 9:34 (I have to reread Asunder to be sure) these bit of info come from Wynne so I'm not sure if this is a ploy to gain Rhys's trust or not.

It's never elaborated on how long it had been going on, but there's at least one survivor at Adamant so it cannot have been too long since Pharamond did his ritual. It's not Wynne's first visit no, not even her second. But I get the impression it had not been going on for too long either. But it's just a guess of mine.

I will give you an example for #3

Lets say that Justinia believes that because Wynne has had success in delaying a possible separation vote twice, the same will happen again. Thus Wynne is the weak point for the Circle that she can exploit until the ROT research is done. (Wynne become the linchpin for success while Fiona becomes the strong point to avoid. Because she is leader the vote to separate.)

However, because she has not been in communication with Fiona and the First Enchanters. She is unaware that they are starting to believe that the promises Wynne made in the last vote will not happen, because the Templar are following Lamberts view of the situation, rather then the Divine.

You yourself say she seems surprised when the Mages don't go along with her plan.

#3 is connected to #1 in the sense that if #1 is not understood then #3 will also not be understood. (Sorry if this is confusing)

Hmmm... perhaps... this interpretation could be correct, but it cannot really look anything up that supports or dismisses it.

[Rinshikai10]

I agree that the ritual appears to be very recent, but I get the impression that the actual research could have been going on for much longer then a year. I don't fully trust Wynne's words, but they are all we currently have.

Modifié par Rinshikai10, 16 novembre 2013 - 10:15 .

[Rinshikai10]

@ Sir JK

Do we even know if Justinia wanted to turn the position of Divine to one of power? I get the impression that she already assumed that it was a position of power.

Modifié par Rinshikai10, 19 novembre 2013 - 02:06 .

[Sir JK]

Rinshikai10 wrote...

@ Sir JK

Do we even know if Justinia wanted to turn the position of Divine to one of power? I get the impression that she already assumed that it was a position of power.

The second chapter of Asunder discusses this. Justinia is turning a few heads by attending social events and actually using her influence. Some people are not too happy about that. Not so much because they think the position should be a figurehead as much as that's what they're used to. Beatrix III was really old by the end of her 50 year tenure, she did not exert much influence at all.

[dragonflight288]

Rinshikai10 wrote...

@ Sir JK

Do we even know if Justinia wanted to turn the position of Divine to one of power? I get the impression that she already assumed that it was a position of power.

It is a position of power. Unfortunately, all the powers that be at present are completely unused to the Divine actually interfering and getting involved thanks to the old age of Divine Beatrix, so they came to think of it as a figurehead role.

As SirJK mentioned, quite a few heads are turning in Asunder because she's using her influence, and not all of them are pleased with the fact.

[KC_Prototype]

King Alistair and the Divine had an intimate relationship and produce a war mongering baby boy. The end:)