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[BlazingSpeed]

Was Elric Maraigne lying about saying that King Cailan knew that there was no way of winning the battle of Ostagar?

Cailan was a dofus but suicidal? No way even if it was to hold back the horde all of the political nonsense that happened after the King's death proves that Ferelden was in no shape to deal with the blight without the Grey Wardens anyways.

I think Elric was just lying in order to make himself feel better about running out on King Cailan.

Has anyone else though about this at all?

[Riverdaleswhiteflash]

People have. Frequently.

For myself, I certainly don't think the battle was a winning proposition, and I acknowledge the possibility that Cailan knew what he was doing. On the other hand, my reasons for believing that Ostagar was unwinnable have nothing to do with Elric, and I don't think I get why Cailan would fight what he knew to be a losing battle.

Modifié par Riverdaleswhiteflash, 20 avril 2013 - 04:26 .

[cJohnOne]

yes, why would Cailin be on the battlefield with Duncan if he knew it was unwinable.

[ejoslin]

If they knew the battle was unwinnable, then Cailin was an idiot for going along with a battle plan that would leave the country completely defenseless. Had he known the battle was unwinnable beforehand, then he should have retreated to Denerim and left a token force behind IN Ostegar (not outside) to try and keep it defended to at least slow the invasion.

I do think the battle was unwinnable, but there is no way that anyone knew that beforehand. And honestly, I really don't take anything from the DLCs seriously.

[Bhryaen]

BlazingSpeed wrote...

Has anyone else though about this at all?

Erm... a few threads down... this thread... on the same subject, sort of...

The main thing to keep in mind with estimating the chances of success at Ostagar is that lots of in-game characters give lots of different accounts for lots of different reasons, but that it's all just testimony- spoken accounts before, during, or (mostly) after the events. The writers were very good at putting forward people giving a very convincing case for something despite facts in the game completely contradicting it. It creates intrigue and makes the player think through the storyline carefully whether they just believe all they hear from this or that NPC or believe none of it or sift through it all in some other way, and it makes roleplaying a lot more interesting- hard to avoid. And it would sorta kill it to make the answers too obvious... so they use enough mixed testimony to leave gray areas for us Gray Wardens to sort out as we will.

As to Elric's testimony being true, it's seems to me as others mentioned: if it were then we'd also have to believe Cailan had a death wish for himself- conscious or subconscious- and didn't mind killing all the Ferelden Gray Wardens and all those troops to fulfill that death wish. It's not likely. Possible would be that, yes, he knew Ostagar was unwinnable but his vanity and childishness were so brutally and treacherously enforced that he didn't care and simply went down with his ship. Not likely either, not with how other testimony speaks of Cailan.

Another possibility is that Elric wasn't talking about Cailan's sense of the battle's outcome before it took place but was instead stating it regarding how Cailan felt about the outcome late in the battle- which could mean he thought Cailan knew it would fail due to Loghain's troops not coming or knew it would fail simply because "the darkspawn were too many." Neither of these are certain as Elric doesn't clarify his statement further. Elric was also one of Cailan's personal guards entrusted with Cailan's safety and who additionally considered Cailan a friend, so he very well might blame himself for failing to keep Cailan alive, now despondent about any chance there might have been at success regardless of whether or not there was.

But that's all speculation. And that's how testimony goes. You listen, and it's a tale told within the larger story, and you let your character decide how to process it. But you'll never have a definitive answer- not as a player and not as your character... because the game doesn't provide that sort of black-and-white clarity to Gray Wardens... for good reason.

EDIT:
I've never taken Loghain through the Return to Ostagar DLC, but I've watched YouTube vids on it. I just now checked with a "Let's Play" that didn't do RtO with Loghain. Notable that Elric seems to disclose less in response to Loghain than if Loghain isn't there...

After clicking "It wasn't your fault:"

With Loghain there:
Loghain: "It was a fool's battle- lost before it began. You are not to blame."
Elric: "I know. The darkspawn were too many. Even Cailan- for all his bravado- knew there would be no victory at Ostagar."

Without Loghain there:
Elric: "I know. Even had Loghain's men not turned their backs on us, the darkspawn were too many. Even Cailan- for all his bravado- knew there would be no victory at Ostagar."

So in that case if Elric's statement was to indicate what he thought Cailan felt only at the end of the battle (rather than how Cailan felt before the darkspawn had even arrived), he didn't think Loghain's troops would've sufficed. That doesn't remove the possibility of Elric's estimate being based on his woe rather than a thoroughgoing and  professional appraisal of the conditions at Ostagar, nor does it make Elric a skilled enough military planner to have been able to make such an appraisal sufficiently, nor does it tell us what information Elric is basing his statement upon at all (if he's basing his estimate on info rather than woe), and- again- regardless, all we have from him is testimony. It just happens to be the most damnable testimony for Cailan and the most apologetic for Loghain. Take it as it is.

Modifié par Bhryaen, 20 avril 2013 - 10:20 .

[BlazingSpeed]

Bhryaen wrote...

BlazingSpeed wrote...

Has anyone else though about this at all?

Erm... a few threads down... this thread... on the same subject, sort of...

The main thing to keep in mind with estimating the chances of success at Ostagar is that lots of in-game characters give lots of different accounts for lots of different reasons, but that it's all just testimony- spoken accounts before, during, or (mostly) after the events. The writers were very good at putting forward people giving a very convincing case for something despite facts in the game completely contradicting it. It creates intrigue and makes the player think through the storyline carefully whether they just believe all they hear from this or that NPC or believe none of it or sift through it all in some other way, and it makes roleplaying a lot more interesting- hard to avoid. And it would sorta kill it to make the answers too obvious... so they use enough mixed testimony to leave gray areas for us Gray Wardens to sort out as we will.

As to Elric's testimony being true, it's seems to me as others mentioned: if it were then we'd also have to believe Cailan had a death wish for himself- conscious or subconscious- and didn't mind killing all the Ferelden Gray Wardens and all those troops to fulfill that death wish. It's not likely. Possible would be that, yes, he knew Ostagar was unwinnable but his vanity and childishness were so brutally and treacherously enforced that he didn't care and simply went down with his ship. Not likely either, not with how other testimony speaks of Cailan.

Another possibility is that Elric wasn't talking about Cailan's sense of the battle's outcome before it took place but was instead stating it regarding how Cailan felt about the outcome late in the battle- which could mean he thought Cailan knew it would fail due to Loghain's troops not coming or knew it would fail simply because "the darkspawn were too many." Neither of these are certain as Elric doesn't clarify his statement further. Elric was also one of Cailan's personal guards entrusted with Cailan's safety and who additionally considered Cailan a friend, so he very well might blame himself for failing to keep Cailan alive, now despondent about any chance there might have been at success regardless of whether or not there was.

But that's all speculation. And that's how testimony goes. You listen, and it's a tale told within the larger story, and you let your character decide how to process it. But you'll never have a definitive answer- not as a player and not as your character... because the game doesn't provide that sort of black-and-white clarity to Gray Wardens... for good reason.

EDIT:
I've never taken Loghain through the Return to Ostagar DLC, but I've watched YouTube vids on it. I just now checked with a "Let's Play" that didn't do RtO with Loghain. Notable that Elric seems to disclose less in response to Loghain than if Loghain isn't there...

After clicking "It wasn't your fault:"

With Loghain there:
Loghain: "It was a fool's battle- lost before it began. You are not to blame."
Elric: "I know. The darkspawn were too many. Even Cailan- for all his bravado- knew there would be no victory at Ostagar."

Without Loghain there:
Elric: "I know. Even had Loghain's men not turned their backs on us, the darkspawn were too many. Even Cailan- for all his bravado- knew there would be no victory at Ostagar."

So in that case if Elric's statement was to indicate what he thought Cailan felt only at the end of the battle (rather than how Cailan felt before the darkspawn had even arrived), he didn't think Loghain's troops would've sufficed. That doesn't remove the possibility of Elric's estimate being based on his woe rather than a thoroughgoing and  professional appraisal of the conditions at Ostagar, nor does it make Elric a skilled enough military planner to have been able to make such an appraisal sufficiently, nor does it tell us what information Elric is basing his statement upon at all (if he's basing his estimate on info rather than woe), and- again- regardless, all we have from him is testimony. It just happens to be the most damnable testimony for Cailan and the most apologetic for Loghain. Take it as it is.

That is an interesting take on what Elric said if we only knew which part of the battle Elric was talking about because during Ostagar everyone was saying that even though they won each battle that there were more Darkspawn each time and by now they look to outnumber us.