44 réponses à ce sujet

[mykejm]

Here's my UR unlock history since I started keeping track:

17 (number of PSPs w/o ultra-rare)
Saber
Blood Pack Punisher
6
Lancer
Wraith
1
Collector SMG
3
Javelin
27 (!)
Collector SMG
17

That gives me a drop rate of .089, or about half of the expected .175 rate that has been observed.

I typically buy 1-2 at a time. Is that what I'm doing wrong? Have I just been unlucky?

Modifié par mykejm, 23 avril 2013 - 08:07 .

[Jaison1986]

You are just out of luck. I bought 10 packs the other day and got just one or two UR weapons. But buy arsenal packs. I hear they have an higher chance of unlocking an UR.

[DinkumGem]

Nearly a 9% drop rate, you lucky SOB!

[dysturbed0ne]

It's like saying the number of times you pull a slot machine arm in a row makes a difference. A 10% chance at something doesn't mean it will happen 1 in 10 times.

[mykejm]

dysturbed0ne wrote...

 A 10% chance at something doesn't mean it will happen 1 in 10 times.

For sufficiently large N that's exactly what a 10% chance means.

[HolyAvenger]

RNG is RNG.

[kinsha22]

mykejm wrote...

dysturbed0ne wrote...

 A 10% chance at something doesn't mean it will happen 1 in 10 times.

For sufficiently large N that's exactly what a 10% chance means.

That's true, but 78 is an extremely small number in the grand scale.  Maybe if you had 7000 one could expect to get a number closer to the observed .17 average.

[codsquallic]

It's terrible, I've gotten 0 from my last 20-30 PSP and ARs. Tonnes of lvl4 ammo though.

[dysturbed0ne]

mykejm wrote...

dysturbed0ne wrote...

 A 10% chance at something doesn't mean it will happen 1 in 10 times.

For sufficiently large N that's exactly what a 10% chance means.

Correct, if you pull 100 times and win 10, you have 10%, or 1 in 10. That only works as a constant after the fact.

The store (hypothetically) has a 10% probability, and you have no idea how long it will take you to achieve 10%.

[Curzyfish]

mykejm wrote...

dysturbed0ne wrote...

 A 10% chance at something doesn't mean it will happen 1 in 10 times.

For sufficiently large N that's exactly what a 10% chance means.

78 isn't large.  And there are ALWAYS outliers.  That's the nature of RANDOM.   Over the course of your entire ME3 mp time, your average drop rate may be somewhat close to the intended drop rate.  But there are ALWAYS going to be streaks of nothing or times where you seem to get a UR every 3rd pack along the way.

[Jaison1986]

I wonder of would happen if you reach the ammo cap for all level IV ammo. I mean sure, it would take forever, but, what would happen?

[mykejm]

I guess what I'm wondering is if we have any reason to believe that the purchase of a single PSP is not an independent event. For example, does the store enforce a particular drop rate for a given time period or are there anomalies due to RNG seeding?

[palmof40sorrows]

mykejm wrote...

dysturbed0ne wrote...

 A 10% chance at something doesn't mean it will happen 1 in 10 times.

For sufficiently large N that's exactly what a 10% chance means.

Yes and the sample size offered is hardly a sufficiently large N.

The "N" in the Nintendo 64 logo was. That thing was sweet.

[Tokenusername]

10% drop rate.

Buy 2 more PSPs.

[Creator Limbs]

I'm baffled that there are still people complaining about the drop rate in the store because it's not going to be changed or fixed at this point.

[Daxamite]

i usually get one UR per 1-2 million spent. Went through a dry spell recently, no URs for several million, then unlocked 5 URs in 2 million spending over two days.

[rka001]

3 URs out of 153 rareslots (PSPs/SPs).

[davidman92]

Jaison1986 wrote...

I wonder of would happen if you reach the ammo cap for all level IV ammo. I mean sure, it would take forever, but, what would happen?

You'd likely have long since maxed your manifest, but if not, they'd keep dropping and reset to 255 after exiting the game.

[Meeeps]

a bit less than 5% is the chance to get a ur per rare slot (5% for SP, 10 for 99k packs) So you are just in the same boat as most, those in your linked stats are out of range.

[Chealec]

Jaison1986 wrote...

I wonder of would happen if you reach the ammo cap for all level IV ammo. I mean sure, it would take forever, but, what would happen?

There doesn't seem to be a limit to ammo ... you can get over 255 whilst in the store but when you go leave it'll reset to 255. I still get Targeting VIs and Stability Mods and I've got (or had until I used a couple tonight) 255 at level 1 and 255 at level 3 of each.

Modifié par Chealec, 23 avril 2013 - 10:26 .

[N7 Panda]

Some interesting reading from DullahansXMark.

[Meeeps]

That stats is for pros only, the common people need >1000 hours to max their manifest. It was never meant to max your manifest, just to get different weapons in a team.

[mykejm]

Meeeps wrote...

a bit less than 5% is the chance to get a ur per rare slot (5% for SP, 10 for 99k packs) So you are just in the same boat as most, those in your linked stats are out of range.

Ok, sounds like it's commonly accepted that the drop rate is ~10%/PSP (or equivalent). In that case, you're right, my results aren't at all unusual.

I guess I was working from a faulty assumption (that the drop rate was closer to the numbers from the google doc). It makes me wonder what kind of selection or reporting bias led to the numbers in that google spreadsheet.

Modifié par mykejm, 23 avril 2013 - 10:47 .

[han shot shepard]

I don't keep track...but I havn't seen a UR in almost a week now. I buy at least 2 premium packs everyday. Most days 4-5.
I find I have better luck on the weekends. I do get a Cyc. IV in almost every pack, so that helps

[RoZh2400]

I don't think you understand how "random" is defined and how random variables work...