192 réponses à ce sujet

[IanPolaris]

Knight of Dane wrote...

Why not? No matter what the warden does initially a guard still dies when Riordan escapes. It's not really unbeleivable that a patrol unit found him and alerted Cauthrien.

Nope.  I will explain why.  When you go through properly (full stealth perfectly), and you kill Arl Howe and go back up through the Arl's bedroom (back the way you came). None of the Arl's men are alerted.  The alarm has not been sounded.  In fact you can actually go to the front door and the room is empty.

If the guard had been found, then the castle would have been on alert and you would have had to fight your way back to Anora's cell.  (This does happen if you botch the stealth.)

So no, what you suggest isn't correct.

-Polaris

[Knight of Dane]

IanPolaris wrote...

Knight of Dane wrote...

It's much more fluid than you think. If she wanted the Warden and Alistair out of the picture and indeed was in no danger from Cauthrien, why did she burst into Eamons manor telling him of the warden, as the very first thing, when she could just have waited till the Warden/Al was dead and then show up and play damsel in distress?

Another possibility that just occured to me is that Anora might have expected Ser Cauthrian to kill the Warden/Al outright (and it would be a very reasonable expectation...and frankly not doing so is something of a plothole that has nothing to do with Anora per se).  When she didn't, Anora sensed an opportunity to 'get in" with Arl Eamon.

-Polaris

It's only a plothole if you actually beleive your bull****.

[Knight of Dane]

IanPolaris wrote...

Knight of Dane wrote...

Why not? No matter what the warden does initially a guard still dies when Riordan escapes. It's not really unbeleivable that a patrol unit found him and alerted Cauthrien.

Nope.  I will explain why.  When you go through properly (full stealth perfectly), and you kill Arl Howe and go back up through the Arl's bedroom (back the way you came). None of the Arl's men are alerted.  The alarm has not been sounded.  In fact you can actually go to the front door and the room is empty.

If the guard had been found, then the castle would have been on alert and you would have had to fight your way back to Anora's cell.  (This does happen if you botch the stealth.)

So no, what you suggest isn't correct.

-Polaris

The wardens plan is not perfect, what if a replacement guard arrived the minute after the warden goes into the basement?

There are too many variables to outright claim Anora as the conspirator you claim she is.

Modifié par Knight of Dane, 16 mai 2013 - 10:22 .

[IanPolaris]

Knight of Dane wrote...

That she may have betrayed the warden.

In most of my saves by warden either just outright kills Cauthrien or gives himself in, no betrayal there.

Nope. She does betray the Warden.  She notified Ser Cauthrien of where and when you would be in order to have you arrested.   There is no other explaination within the game.  (Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever left however improbable has to be the truth.)

In fact you can even call her on it when you get back to Eamon's estate.

-Polaris

[Knight of Dane]

IanPolaris wrote...

Knight of Dane wrote...

That she may have betrayed the warden.

In most of my saves by warden either just outright kills Cauthrien or gives himself in, no betrayal there.

Nope. She does betray the Warden.  She notified Ser Cauthrien of where and when you would be in order to have you arrested.   There is no other explaination within the game.  (Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever left however improbable has to be the truth.)

In fact you can even call her on it when you get back to Eamon's estate.

-Polaris

There's plenty of reasons why Cauthrien showed up; as I said, too many variables and may bee's.

Modifié par Knight of Dane, 16 mai 2013 - 10:23 .

[IanPolaris]

Knight of Dane wrote...

The wardens plan is not perfect, what if a replacement guard arrived the minute after the warden goes into the basement?

There are too many variables to outright claim ANora as the conspirator she is.

No there aren't that many variables and they all can be eliminated.  We went through this years ago.  If there was a replacement guard that found the body, then the Arl's castle should have been on high alert when you got back upstairs.  IT WAS NOT  In fact no one in the castle other than Anora and her maid are the wiser.

It's not a matter of "perfect plan".  It's simple logistics.

-Polaris

[IanPolaris]

Knight of Dane wrote...

There's plenty of reasons why Cauthrien showed up; as I said, too many variables and may bee's.

You are wrong.  Every other possible reason can be eliminated and has been.

-Polaris

[Knight of Dane]

You still don't have any proof. Anything could have happened that the warden wasn't aware of.

[Knight of Dane]

IanPolaris wrote...

Knight of Dane wrote...

There's plenty of reasons why Cauthrien showed up; as I said, too many variables and may bee's.

You are wrong.  Every other possible reason can be eliminated and has been.

-Polaris

No it cannot, there is no proof. Show me the proof and I will agree.

[IanPolaris]

Knight of Dane wrote...

It's only a plothole if you actually beleive your bull****.

Wrong.  It's a plothole period no matter what you think of Anora.  If  Alistair dies, then Loghain prevails at the landsmeet.  Period.  If the Warden dies, Loghain will almost almost certainly prevail as well.

Loghain knows this, and as such has tried to murder both Wardens in cold blood before AND has put out bounties on both Wardens.

That being so, there is no reason why either would be taken alive. It's a plothole.

-Polaris

[Knight of Dane]

Anora may have told Cauthrien
One of the protesters may have seen the warden and told Cauthrien
A servant or guard may have been suspicius.
Soris, that warl son, Vaughan and Rexxel can escape the prison.
Zevran can have told Howe.
One of Eamons employees may have told Cauthrien.

Too many possibilities. It's easy to find any explanation, but there is no proof in either case.

[Knight of Dane]

IanPolaris wrote...

Knight of Dane wrote...

It's only a plothole if you actually beleive your bull****.

Wrong.  It's a plothole period no matter what you think of Anora.  If  Alistair dies, then Loghain prevails at the landsmeet.  Period.  If the Warden dies, Loghain will almost almost certainly prevail as well.

Loghain knows this, and as such has tried to murder both Wardens in cold blood before AND has put out bounties on both Wardens.

That being so, there is no reason why either would be taken alive. It's a plothole.

-Polaris

Couldn't have seen a opportunity to bribe Eamon?
Maybe Loghain had yet to be aware?

[IanPolaris]

Knight of Dane wrote...

You still don't have any proof. Anything could have happened that the warden wasn't aware of.

I do.  It's called logical deduction and analysis.  If all other possibilities except Anora betraying you have been eliminated, then we are forced to conclude that Anora betrayed you.

So what are those other possibilities:

1.  Dead Guard/Accidendial discovery. 

If that were so, then Howe's estate would be instantly on high alert the moment we got back upstairs (and this DOES happen if you botch the disquises upstairs).  However, in fact (assuming stealth play) we find that even after we've killed Howe, his men upstairs are not alerted to the fact that anything is wrong.

This is eliminated.

2.  Spies ratted the party out on the way in.

If that were so, then Howe (who is Loghain's spymaster) would have known the wardens were coming and baked a cake.  Howe was clearly caught by suprise.  Futhermore, no spy would be able to know that you killed Arl Howe (since that was NOT your intent when you entered Howe's estate).

This is eliminated.

3.  A guard witnessed your murder of Arl Howe and somehow notified Loghain.

If that were so, then not only should the upstairs be alerted (and it's not), but if you actually look at the floorplan, it's a deathtrap.  There is no way that fleeing guards could get upstairs and alert anyone without running into the party and getting killed.  The dungeons are designed to be very secure w/r/t prisoners, but are a deathtrap in a combat situation.

This is eliminated.

4.  An outside guard spotted the party and alerted Ser Cauthrien.

This solves the problem of the upstairs not being alerted, but if that were the case, Ser Cauthrien would not know that anyone was assaulted, let alone Arl Howe being murdered.  Not only that, but you can avoid killing ANY guards on the outside of the estate by avoiding being seen by ANY guards outside the estate.

This is eliminated.

Shall I go on?  There are a lot fewer variables then you think, and again, when you eliminate the impossible, whatever is left however improbable has to be the truth.

-Polaris

[IanPolaris]

Knight of Dane wrote...

Anora may have told Cauthrien

Possible.

One of the protesters may have seen the warden and told Cauthrien

There is no way that the protesters would know if the warden has business or not, and even if not, there is no way that Ser Cauthrien would know that Arl Howe has been murdered (or that any violence occured at all).

*eliminated*

A servant or guard may have been suspicius.

No alarm is raised in the castle, and there is no surviving guard or servant that actually sees you kill the Arl.

*eliminated*

Soris, that warl son, Vaughan and Rexxel can escape the prison.

If they don't (it's your choice), Ser Cauthrien still shows up with the same information.

*eliminated*  (Also none of them actually see you kill the Arl)

Zevran can have told Howe.

In which case Howe would have baked a cake (the whole castle would have been a trap and not just the last encounter).  In fact we know that Howe did NOT know you were coming (he even says as much).

*eliminated*

One of Eamons employees may have told Cauthrien.

They would not be able to tell Ser Cauthrien that there was any plan to kill Arl Howe (when emphatically there was not).

*eliminated*

Too many possibilities. It's easy to find any explanation, but there is no proof in either case.

As I've just shown, there are a lot fewer possibilities if you apply any sort of rigorous analysis than you think.

-Polaris

[IanPolaris]

Knight of Dane wrote...
Couldn't have seen a opportunity to bribe Eamon?

To what end?  Loghain had already tried to kill Eamon before.  If Loghain prevails at the Landsmeet, he'll have Eamon executed (in fact if he does win the Landsmeet he orders Eamon's execution).  No point in bribing Eamon and that's assuming that he would have anything that Eamon would want or even that Eamon would even listen.

It doesn't fly.

Maybe Loghain had yet to be aware?

Loghain is almost certainly not aware (which btw also points the finger right at Anora betraying the Warden), but there is a long standing posted "dead or alive" bounty on the wardens.  Also if the Warden (and Alistair) are captured, they are brought to Fort Drakon and are there for a little while (long enough to be 'processed').  That's more than enough time to inform Loghain.  That being so, there is no reason why Loghain wouldn't summarily execute them.

-Polaris

[Knight of Dane]

IanPolaris wrote...

Knight of Dane wrote...

You still don't have any proof. Anything could have happened that the warden wasn't aware of.

I do.  It's called logical deduction and analysis.  If all other possibilities except Anora betraying you have been eliminated, then we are forced to conclude that Anora betrayed you.

So what are those other possibilities:

1.  Dead Guard/Accidendial discovery. 

If that were so, then Howe's estate would be instantly on high alert the moment we got back upstairs (and this DOES happen if you botch the disquises upstairs).  However, in fact (assuming stealth play) we find that even after we've killed Howe, his men upstairs are not alerted to the fact that anything is wrong.

This is eliminated.

No it's not:
What if they decided that a Warden that regardless of the mansion part slaughters an entire basement full of guards was not worth wasting more forces on, eh? If someone with the Wardens reputation was to invade my mansion I'd surely not want to waste manpower on him/her and try to trap her with my right hand and a batallion.

IanPolaris wrote...
2.  Spies ratted the party out on the way in.

If that were so, then Howe (who is Loghain's spymaster) would have known the wardens were coming and baked a cake.  Howe was clearly caught by suprise.  Futhermore, no spy would be able to know that you killed Arl Howe (since that was NOT your intent when you entered Howe's estate).

This is eliminated.

Howe seemed armed and pretty prepared when I got down to him

And who's to say a random ass spy wasn't tagging our tail the entire time?

IanPolaris wrote...
3.  A guard witnessed your murder of Arl Howe and somehow notified Loghain.

If that were so, then not only should the upstairs be alerted (and it's not), but if you actually look at the floorplan, it's a deathtrap.  There is no way that fleeing guards could get upstairs and alert anyone without running into the party and getting killed.  The dungeons are designed to be very secure w/r/t prisoners, but are a deathtrap in a combat situation.

This is eliminated.

It's big frickin' O with a locked door Howe may have unlocked any time the Warden went past it.

Not eliminated.

IanPolaris wrote...
4.  An outside guard spotted the party and alerted Ser Cauthrien.

This solves the problem of the upstairs not being alerted, but if that were the case, Ser Cauthrien would not know that anyone was assaulted, let alone Arl Howe being murdered.  Not only that, but you can avoid killing ANY guards on the outside of the estate by avoiding being seen by ANY guards outside the estate.

This is eliminated.

To our knowledge, as I said anythign could have happened that the warden is not aware of. But other than that you are right.

IanPolaris wrote...
Shall I go on?  There are a lot fewer variables then you think, and again, when you eliminate the impossible, whatever is left however improbable has to be the truth.

-Polaris

So far you have only presented guesswork and your own interpretation, no proof so far.
So lets contiue our dance, shall we? I'm certainly not going to take your word before you present something more concrete.

Modifié par Knight of Dane, 16 mai 2013 - 10:53 .

[IanPolaris]

Knight of Dane wrote...

So far you have only presented guesswork and your own interpretation, no proof so far.
So lets contiue our dance, shall we? I'm certainly not going to take your word before you present something more concrete.

Wrong.  Deduction by elimiantion is a form of proof.  However, if you want more, I suggest you go into the DAO archives.  The entire BSN spend about 50 pages disecting this scene, and ultimately you have to say that either:

1.  Anora betrayed the Warden
2.  The writers fouled up

Given that #1 is a perfectly valid explaination within the game, that is what I regard as fact unless the writers/devs of DAO specifically tell me otherwise (and to my knowledge they never have).

I don't want to pollute this thread further with 50 page of back and forth that will only mimic what is already in the archives.  Go look it up.

-Polaris

[Knight of Dane]

[quote]IanPolaris wrote...

[quote]Knight of Dane wrote...

Anora may have told Cauthrien[/quote]

Possible.
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
[quote]
One of the protesters may have seen the warden and told Cauthrien
[/quote]

There is no way that the protesters would know if the warden has business or not, and even if not, there is no way that Ser Cauthrien would know that Arl Howe has been murdered (or that any violence occured at all).

*eliminated*
[/quote]
How do you know?
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
[quote]
A servant or guard may have been suspicius.
[/quote]

No alarm is raised in the castle, and there is no surviving guard or servant that actually sees you kill the Arl.

*eliminated*
[/quote]
And not one of them could have thought to go to Cauthrien instead?
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
[quote]
Soris, that warl son, Vaughan and Rexxel can escape the prison.
[/quote]

If they don't (it's your choice), Ser Cauthrien still shows up with the same information.

*eliminated*  (Also none of them actually see you kill the Arl)
[/quote]
You are right, none of them do. What's stopping Cauthrien from assuming you did seeing as you're kinda escaping his dungeon and he's not.
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
[quote]
Zevran can have told Howe.
[/quote]

In which case Howe would have baked a cake (the whole castle would have been a trap and not just the last encounter).  In fact we know that Howe did NOT know you were coming (he even says as much).

*eliminated*
[/quote]
Who's to say? As I said before, the Howe i encountered were armed and had mage backup.
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
[quote]
One of Eamons employees may have told Cauthrien.
[/quote]

They would not be able to tell Ser Cauthrien that there was any plan to kill Arl Howe (when emphatically there was not).

*eliminated*
[/quote]
You are right, but Cauthrien can make her own assumptions.
[quote]IanPolaris wrote...
[quote]
Too many possibilities. It's easy to find any explanation, but there is no proof in either case.[/quote]

As I've just shown, there are a lot fewer possibilities if you apply any sort of rigorous analysis than you think.

-Polaris[/quote][/quote]
You're still not disproven anything, just given your interpretation.

Modifié par Knight of Dane, 16 mai 2013 - 10:58 .

[esper]

@Ian. I don't think that Loghain executes them because at this point the wardens are offically allied with Eamon who accusses Loghain of all sort of things. Executing the wardens might, according to a certain logic, prove Eamon right and make it harder to win the Landsmeet. At this point I think Loghain is betting on being able to actually win the landsmeet. Get rid of Eamon and then execute the captored wardens.

Basically the moment Loghain offically met with your characters in Denerim, the dead or alive bounty became null.

[Knight of Dane]

Gah, I'm don re-quoting, I'm just gonna reply directly if you don't mind.

[Knight of Dane]

IanPolaris wrote...

Knight of Dane wrote...

So far you have only presented guesswork and your own interpretation, no proof so far.
So lets contiue our dance, shall we? I'm certainly not going to take your word before you present something more concrete.

Wrong.  Deduction by elimiantion is a form of proof.  However, if you want more, I suggest you go into the DAO archives.  The entire BSN spend about 50 pages disecting this scene, and ultimately you have to say that either:

1.  Anora betrayed the Warden
2.  The writers fouled up

Given that #1 is a perfectly valid explaination within the game, that is what I regard as fact unless the writers/devs of DAO specifically tell me otherwise (and to my knowledge they never have).

I don't want to pollute this thread further with 50 page of back and forth that will only mimic what is already in the archives.  Go look it up.

-Polaris

Fine with me. Have a nice day tho 

[IanPolaris]

Knight of Dane wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...

Knight of Dane wrote...

You still don't have any proof. Anything could have happened that the warden wasn't aware of.

I do.  It's called logical deduction and analysis.  If all other possibilities except Anora betraying you have been eliminated, then we are forced to conclude that Anora betrayed you.

So what are those other possibilities:

1.  Dead Guard/Accidendial discovery. 

If that were so, then Howe's estate would be instantly on high alert the moment we got back upstairs (and this DOES happen if you botch the disquises upstairs).  However, in fact (assuming stealth play) we find that even after we've killed Howe, his men upstairs are not alerted to the fact that anything is wrong.

This is eliminated.

No it's not:
What if they decided that a Warden that regardless of the mansion part slaughters an entire basement full of guards was not worth wasting more forces on, eh? If someone with the Wardens reputation was to invade my mansion I'd surely not want to waste manpower on him/her and try to trap her with my right hand and a batallion.

Yes it is.  It is because we know what happens if we are spotted.  (We then get the lovely job of fighting through Howe's entire garrison).  This isn't a matter of detailing more guards.  It's a matter that NO ONE is alerted within the castle.

IanPolaris wrote...
2.  Spies ratted the party out on the way in.

If that were so, then Howe (who is Loghain's spymaster) would have known the wardens were coming and baked a cake.  Howe was clearly caught by suprise.  Futhermore, no spy would be able to know that you killed Arl Howe (since that was NOT your intent when you entered Howe's estate).

This is eliminated.

Howe seemed armed and pretty prepared when I got down to him

Howe is always armed, but did you see how leading a group of guards.  Did the guards in the dungeon seem particularly alerted that you were there?

No.  In fact Howe says that your apprearence is a suprise.

And who's to say a random ass spy wasn't tagging our tail the entire time?

Really?  If that were true, then said spy could (and would) have ratted us out and alerted the castle the moment we got inside if not sooner.  Also any spy that would witness Arl Howe's death would be caught in the same deathtrap of a dungeon as the Arl's men.  You CAN'T get out of that dungeon without running into the Warden and his group in that situation.  The dungeon is a deathtrap.

IanPolaris wrote...
3.  A guard witnessed your murder of Arl Howe and somehow notified Loghain.

If that were so, then not only should the upstairs be alerted (and it's not), but if you actually look at the floorplan, it's a deathtrap.  There is no way that fleeing guards could get upstairs and alert anyone without running into the party and getting killed.  The dungeons are designed to be very secure w/r/t prisoners, but are a deathtrap in a combat situation.

This is eliminated.

It's big frickin' O with a locked door Howe may have unlocked any time the Warden went past it.

We know he didn't because the door is still locked and Howe has the only Key.

Not eliminated.

wrong.

-Polaris

Edit PS:  I don't want to discuss this further per my post above.  I just wanted to get these points down...but we could go back and forth...and all this really is in the DAO forum archives.

Modifié par IanPolaris, 16 mai 2013 - 11:09 .

[IanPolaris]

esper wrote...

@Ian. I don't think that Loghain executes them because at this point the wardens are offically allied with Eamon who accusses Loghain of all sort of things. Executing the wardens might, according to a certain logic, prove Eamon right and make it harder to win the Landsmeet. At this point I think Loghain is betting on being able to actually win the landsmeet. Get rid of Eamon and then execute the captored wardens.

Basically the moment Loghain offically met with your characters in Denerim, the dead or alive bounty became null.

This is an interesting point.  However, I have a couple of problems with it.

1.  If Alistair is with the group (and the game should not allow this frankly) why shouldn't Loghain just kill him?  I grant this would be a non-starter in most places in Denerim but certainly not in Howe's estate or Ft Drakon, and esp not if Loghain wins by default if that happens.

2.  The warden is likely a commoner.  Why would the nobles of Fereldan care if Loghain murdered a commoner...and esp a commoner that was in the act of a crime?  Given that Loghain would also win nearly by default, I have difficulty seeing him not killing the Warden....but I find this more plausible than the first since Eamon would still be able to present Alistair as an alternate king.

-Polaris

[Zekka]

Obama

[Knight of Dane]

IanPolaris wrote...

Knight of Dane wrote...

IanPolaris wrote...

Knight of Dane wrote...

You still don't have any proof. Anything could have happened that the warden wasn't aware of.

I do.  It's called logical deduction and analysis.  If all other possibilities except Anora betraying you have been eliminated, then we are forced to conclude that Anora betrayed you.

So what are those other possibilities:

1.  Dead Guard/Accidendial discovery. 

If that were so, then Howe's estate would be instantly on high alert the moment we got back upstairs (and this DOES happen if you botch the disquises upstairs).  However, in fact (assuming stealth play) we find that even after we've killed Howe, his men upstairs are not alerted to the fact that anything is wrong.

This is eliminated.

No it's not:
What if they decided that a Warden that regardless of the mansion part slaughters an entire basement full of guards was not worth wasting more forces on, eh? If someone with the Wardens reputation was to invade my mansion I'd surely not want to waste manpower on him/her and try to trap her with my right hand and a batallion.

Yes it is.  It is because we know what happens if we are spotted.  (We then get the lovely job of fighting through Howe's entire garrison).  This isn't a matter of detailing more guards.  It's a matter that NO ONE is alerted within the castle.

IanPolaris wrote...
2.  Spies ratted the party out on the way in.

If that were so, then Howe (who is Loghain's spymaster) would have known the wardens were coming and baked a cake.  Howe was clearly caught by suprise.  Futhermore, no spy would be able to know that you killed Arl Howe (since that was NOT your intent when you entered Howe's estate).

This is eliminated.

Howe seemed armed and pretty prepared when I got down to him

Howe is always armed, but did you see how leading a group of guards.  Did the guards in the dungeon seem particularly alerted that you were there?

No.  In fact Howe says that your apprearence is a suprise.

And who's to say a random ass spy wasn't tagging our tail the entire time?

Really?  If that were true, then said spy could (and would) have ratted us out and alerted the castle the moment we got inside if not sooner.  Also any spy that would witness Arl Howe's death would be caught in the same deathtrap of a dungeon as the Arl's men.  You CAN'T get out of that dungeon without running into the Warden and his group in that situation.  The dungeon is a deathtrap.

IanPolaris wrote...
3.  A guard witnessed your murder of Arl Howe and somehow notified Loghain.

If that were so, then not only should the upstairs be alerted (and it's not), but if you actually look at the floorplan, it's a deathtrap.  There is no way that fleeing guards could get upstairs and alert anyone without running into the party and getting killed.  The dungeons are designed to be very secure w/r/t prisoners, but are a deathtrap in a combat situation.

This is eliminated.

It's big frickin' O with a locked door Howe may have unlocked any time the Warden went past it.

We know he didn't because the door is still locked and Howe has the only Key.

Not eliminated.

wrong.

-Polaris

Edit PS:  I don't want to discuss this further per my post above.  I just wanted to get these points down...but we could go back and forth...and all this really is in the DAO forum archives.

1) We know what happens when we alert then while in the mansion, not in the basement.
"Someone's in the basement, they got past us and are slaughtering everyone."
"Quick, let Ser Cauthrien handle this"
That kind of thing.

2) Not if said spy were tagging at the Wardens tail. They can always turn around.

3) There is another way up, you don't have to go through that door.

Modifié par Knight of Dane, 16 mai 2013 - 01:41 .